3 Signings to Make the Second the Lockout Ends

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a lot to sort out when free agency reopens, but they need to establish a base to their offseason after failing to do so before the lockout. Three moves in particular would go a long way in improving the roster across the board and could be the beginning of a return to contention.

Sign Yusei Kikuchi to a 2 year, $25m deal

Kikuchi isn’t necessarily the best pitcher left in free agency, but the left-hander would make a great addition to the Twins rotation. At 30 years old, Kikuchi hasn’t been all that good in his three years in the league with over 350 innings and an ERA around 5.00. The lefty has obvious talent, however, averaging over 95mph on the fastball in 2021 with a wicked slider that resulted in dominant stretches.

Kikuchi wouldn’t break the bank and has number 2-3 upside, but even as is he would go a long way in rehabbing a pitching needy roster. Striking out a batter per inning with a mid 4s ERA as he did in 2021 would slot in just fine, and coming near the 160 innings he’s averaged in his career would make a huge impact on a rotation that expects some young additions during the season. Even if there isn’t a tweak to be made, Kikuchi is the type of pitcher the Twins should be throwing money at for multiple years.

Sign Richard Rodriguez to a 1 year, $3m deal

I’ve long wanted to see Richard Rodriguez in a Twins jersey. It turned out paying up would have been a mistake, as Rodriguez turned into a bit of a pumpkin in 2021. His strikeout rate dropped by an incredible 20% despite nearly identical velocities year over year. The former Pirate’s closer lost effectiveness with his slider which led to his being non-tendered after a trade to Atlanta. He did still manage a sub 3.00 ERA, however.

Relievers are volatile, but Rodriguez has shown no physical red flags at 31 years old which makes you wonder whether there’s just a small adjustment to make to his once dominant breaking ball. It would be a similar deal to what the Twins gave Hansel Robles in 2021, although Rodriguez is coming off a year where he was still a useful reliever. The right-hander was quietly one of the better closers in baseball in 2020 and could help lead a bullpen that will see several young arms debut and battle for jobs.

Sign Trevor Story for to a 4 year, $92m deal

The game of musical chairs is coming to an end in the free agent shortstop market, and Story may run out of options. With less leverage, Story shouldn’t need the 5+ year deals we’ve seen this offseason that the Twins are unlikely to sign. Still just 29, the Twins would still get Story in the prime of his career. Without a clear-cut shortstop on the way, Story would fill this historically problematic position for the foreseeable future rather than kicking the can down the road with another one year Andrelton Simmons type.

In what was certainly a down year in 2021, Story still accumulated 3.5 Wins Above Replacement, which would have been third in Minnesota behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. He’s still always capable of a 30 home run, 30 steal season with a respectable on base ability and never having hit below .250. The right-handed slugger would be a huge addition to the already great lineup. Adding such a big bat would make the trade of another established hitter for pitching much easier to swallow.

The Twins have much more work to do than just three moves, but these three in particular offer a good amount of floor as well as a ton of upside. The bullpen and offense/defense would considerably improve, and the hole in the rotation would shrink by adding an arm that could have a surprising payoff.

As we all get fed up with the lockout that has no end in sight, there’s little left to do but dream on the flurry of moves that will absolutely follow. Are there any moves you’d like to see the Twins prioritize? Let us know below!

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[miracleb]

"with a mid 4s ERA as he did in 2021 would slot in just fine"

 

Slot in just fine?  We have 3-4 "top pitching prospects" who could come close to doing mid 4's TODAY........why pay big money for mediocrity .......when we can have our own, home grown, medioc..........

[beckmt]

Story comment must be a joke.  He is probably going to be in the 7 year $200 neighborhood. You must be hoping the price really drops.  Someone will pay him close to this figure. 

I agree with the poster on the starter.  Why lock yourself in when you need to sort thru a lot of starters over the next 2 years and this is the best year to find out what some of them have. 

Rodriquez I could see.  Depending on medicals could really help the Twins bullpen, since we have no idea how good some of the prospects will fare at this level.  It would still leave 1 - 2 spots for the prospects, who then could start in low leverage situations.

[Otaknam]

Agree it’s time to see what the minor league starters can do. Five or six seem poised to make the roster so let’s find out. The FO isn’t going to sign an number one or two free agent starter anyway so without that making the playoffs is unlikely. I like the idea of signing Story but that’s unlikely for this franchise. 

[specialiststeve]

If can get those done sign me up... agree that Story is more of a 5 year 150 type signing... not sure we would be doing that... or should...

 

[mike8791]

But have these 3 moves really moved the needle?  Story would be a major addition but his salary would preclude this org. from spending on their area of biggest need(by far) - starting pitching.  If Kikuchi was our major add, this is still a bottom 5 rotation.  We need at least two better than average starters.  Rodon, despite the injury risks, clearly stands as the premier target.  A #2 could be added by trade.  For #3, I like Kim and then Pineda.  A Kikuchi-level starter could be thrown into the mix to compete with Bundy, Ryan and Ober for bottom two spots.

Story's signing would squander resources needed for pitching.  Don't forget, if Twins did pull off a trade for an A's or Red's starter to slot as a #2, they would almost have to be ready to extend the contract of said pitcher, given the haul it would take to pry one of these guys loose.  Unlikely the team budget allows for top 2 pitching additions plus Story.  Fortunately, this offense looks strong enough on paper to contend with the needed rotation additions so Story would be a luxury we could ill afford.

I,too, like Rodriguez as an inexpensive pen addition, but his add alone wouldn't turn this bullpen into a plus.  A Tepera-like signing would also be needed.  I still cling to hope the Twins can contend in 2022 but not if their biggest pitching add is Kikuchi.

[tony&rodney]

Story is a solid addition. The post sets out a few fair options. The main issues remain -  the budget and The Plan, whatever it is.

We all are interested in what the Twins young hurlers can do. Most folks have allocated 2-3 rotation spots for the prospects, which includes Ober and Ryan. That still requires 2-3 players to front the rotation. Remember that rookies usually wind up with ERAs closer to 5 or higher. I'm liking Ober and Winder, but remain realistic about their initial full journeys through MLB lineups. Balazovic may surprise as well, but it is worth remembering that no Twins pitching prospect has been forecasted to front a rotation. There is work to do. 

[mikelink45]

Mid winter dreams keep getting around to the same stars (Story) and a mix of questionable acquisitions that, at best, block the Twins from trying out another young arm.  I am waiting, done speculating, frustrated with the current situations in MLB and Twins. But please let's do better than mediocre or leave the rotation to develop itself. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

Story comment must be a joke.  He is probably going to be in the 7 year $200 neighborhood. You must be hoping the price really drops.  Someone will pay him close to this figure. 

MLBTR had Story at 6/126 so the suggested AAV of 23 million is greater but for four years. He may well get 7/200 but MLBTR must have told the same joke.

As for a plan I think one piece of a long term plan is prioritizing how much of the budget to spend on pitching and position players. My hope going into the off season was that significant dollars would be devoted to pitching. I think they need a free agent and a trade to fill those top two spots. They failed miserably getting pitching and Rodon is left and he comes with health concerns.

I would sign Rodon. MLBTR suggested 1/25 but I want an option for 2023. I don’t know what numbers it would take to win the deal. Start with a base of 15 million this year and 25 next year with a buyout of 5. Add in incentives for games pitched this year scaling to 5 million. Either way the Twins pay about 20 million this year factoring in buy out if injured. Rodon gets a salary greater than the tender the White Sox would not offer. The Twins take a shot on a high upside pitcher. If he doesn’t work out they have that money to go after pitching next year. If it does work out the outlook for 2023 is much brighter.

[roger]

I often cringe when I read posts talking about signing X, Y, or Z.  Will agree with the above that the two pitchers shouldn't block any of the prospects who are getting so close.  As for Story, is this the 1,000th time we have seen this suggestion this winter.  To me, it would be the same mistake they made with Donaldson, albeit, Story is a bit younger.  

As for starting pitching, no problem going into the year with Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Dobnak and either Jax or Thorpe.  All have some major league experience and potentially should be fine.  Follow that up with a half dozen better prospects who should arrive at some point this year and Maeda returning by late summer and you have a starting rotation that works this year and puts the team in great shape for 2023.  With that said, I will be surprised if they don't either sign someone like Pineda or work a trade along the lines of the Odorizzi trade.

[yeahyabetcha]

I suspect it will take more money to sign the three than you propose.  But if the two pitchers can be signed for close to that, go for it,  they need someone to provide some innings 

Pass on Story, I would rather resign Simmons.

[miller761]

Did the Twin's make a mistake signing Donaldson? Or did Donaldson make a mistake signing with the Twins? Unless the the front office has a bunch of trades or signings coming Donaldson will not come close to a World Series appearance in probably his last contract. I could take Trevor Story as a DH the last 2 years of an affordable 4 year contract. 

The first trade or signing after the lockout ends will shine a clearer light on the front office's plan. I for one hope it is Story for 4 years for between 90 and 100 million. There are plenty of options out there to follow up that deal.

 

[TopGunn#22]

Story could solve the SS issue, but I'm still of a mind to trade for someone like Mondesi, Dejong etc...that wouldn't cost much prospect wise, but would be a solid player at the position leaving Polanco at 2B.  I lean more toward singing Rodon to the 1-year $25 million with a team option for 2023 and packaging Arraez for a SP like Bassitt or Manaea  or a Marlins prospect like Sanchez or Meyer.  I would like to see two solid guys at the top of the rotation (Rodon & Bassitt/Manaea, put Bundy #4 and slot Ryan and Ober at #3 & #5)  There's always Pineda as well depending on cost.  Then let Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Strotman etc...shuttle up and down and fill in.  Gotta get the young guys some innings, but you've got to have some veteran pitchers to fill innings and tie everything together.  I don't mind all the speculation, but without a true sense of what the team is willing to spend this year, we're all just walking down a dark hallway.  

[Minny505]

The demand for Story is higher than pre-lockout. There are more chairs than contestants at this point:

-Twins
-Yankees
-Angels
-Astros
-Phillies

Those are just the "NEED an upgrade at SS" teams. Throw in the Mariners and Red Sox as teams that are said to be looking to move their current SS down the spectrum and the bidding has likely already gone beyond 4/92 behind the scenes.

Story probably signs for something like 6/150. I still think that would be worth it as he has been a Top 5 SS by both bWAR and fWAR over the past five seasons. Over a period of unprecedented SS performance in MLB history, he has been one of the best. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I can't agree to signing these two, historically mediocre - minus pitchers. However signing the Free Agent Colorado SS is another  story. 

[LastOnePicked]

Really good thoughts, but the Twins signing Story? I'm not even sure the FO will be aggressive enough to re-sign Simmons at this point. Story isn't going to end up here, that's pretty clear to me.

But Kikuchi is possible. We'd have a rotation of Bundy, Pineda and Kikuchi with Ober, Ryan and a handful of MLB debuts. That seems like the kind of rotation that would put this team in a very similar position as 2021 - struggling to avoid 90 losses. Absolute upside is a .500 team. 

Might be better just to go with the youth movement and tell the offense that victories in 2022 are going to be their responsibility.

[Nashvilletwin]

Sign Story and declare victory at SS for the foreseeable future. 4-6 years, $25MM/year or thereabouts. 

If we need to move JD - whose value, btw, just went up with universal DH - either this off-season or by the trade deadline to get team spending on budget or preserve capital for FA pitching, we should do it.

Miranda/Story > JD/whomever is in the organization for the next several years.

Story, Polanco and Buxton up the middle is an elite major league lineup.

The point being if we had to make a choice for a $25MM/yr left side of the diamond infielder, Story is a much better investment than JD.

 

[Jacksson]

It will cost more for Story than what you forecast.  Pohlad will not authorize that kind of expenditure unless Donaldson is unloaded without having to eat some dollars.  The season will open with one or all of Beckham, Robinson ,Gordon at SS until one of Lewis, Martin or Miranda is ready.

[Nashvilletwin]

23 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

It will cost more for Story than what you forecast.  Pohlad will not authorize that kind of expenditure unless Donaldson is unloaded without having to eat some dollars.  The season will open with one or all of Beckham, Robinson ,Gordon at SS until one of Lewis, Martin or Miranda is ready.

Ok so it may or may not cost a few bucks more either for Story and/or to move JD.  I agree that signing Story likely means a JD trade - however, not because the Pohlads are cheap, but because the owners and FO know that ‘22 is most likely a repositioning year given our projected starting staff.

The real issue is that none of Lewis, Martin or Miranda may actually be a major league shortstop - let alone a major leaguer (although I expect all three to be solid MLers).  Miranda and Martin aren’t even really in the SS discussion. If Lewis does pan out at SS then you have the proverbial rich man’s problem. The more likely scenario is that in ‘23 all three of these prospects are starting at other positions -  3B (Miranda) and corner OF on either side of Buxton (Martin and Lewis) with Story at SS, Polanco at 2B and Kiriloff at 1B.

Lewis is probably the biggest risk at this point to be anywhere in the lineup in ‘23, let alone SS.

Sign Story and get Miller ready over the next four years as the heir apparent at SS.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm sorry Cody I'm not sold on LHP Kikuchi, I don't see him having success in this division. I've liked both Story & Rodriguez.

SS is in big demand, we really need a good glove so if we can snare Story that would be great. But even that people have doubts about Story's bat, his price tag will be bid up above our price range, maybe we can get lucky. Texas star 3B prospect  is down so Isiah Kiner is more than likely off the block. List for viable SS glove is getting smaller but the buyer list is big. My hope is that FO doesn't settle for a 2nd or 3rd rate SS glove.

I advocated for trading for Rodriguez last season. He did very well most of the season but at the end he tailed off. What were those reasons? Maybe he got tired after pitching so much or maybe it was due to the crack down on the sticky stuff. Tepera could be a better option.

We still don't have a viable CF insurance policy. I'd pursue some options for a true CFer and not get burned again.

[Shaitan]

4 hours ago, miller761 said:

Did the Twin's make a mistake signing Donaldson? Or did Donaldson make a mistake signing with the Twins? Unless the the front office has a bunch of trades or signings coming Donaldson will not come close to a World Series appearance in probably his last contract. 

If your definition of a "non mistake" contract is winning the World Series, then almost every single contract in the league is a mistake.

[miller761]

Going deep into the playoffs is what I was getting at. Not coming close to a World Series appearance does not mean the same as winning a World Series.

[miller761]

We have discussed all the different ways the Twin's FO can go either by free agent signings, trades or just staying pat and letting the kids play. I feel confident the FO has their plan in place and we will see shortly after the lockout how they will treat 2022. I just feel adding Story if the price is right ( 4years at $25 mil) is a great move. A top notch hitting club can overcome pitching shortcomings during the regular season but probably won't win in the playoffs. But in 1-2 years if we are correct in saying we have some MLB average to above average pitching then that hitting will help us go deep in the playoffs and help keep a serious contender on the field.

[AceWrigley]

Sign lefty starter Kwang Hyun Kim for 2 years at total $8M. 

Sign reliever Rich Rodriguez for 2 years at total $3.4M.

Trade pitcher Matt Canterino and outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez to the Rays for shortstop Taylor Walls.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sign Story and declare victory at SS for the foreseeable future. 4-6 years, $25MM/year or thereabouts. 

If we need to move JD - whose value, btw, just went up with universal DH - either this off-season or by the trade deadline to get team spending on budget or preserve capital for FA pitching, we should do it.

Miranda/Story > JD/whomever is in the organization for the next several years.

Story, Polanco and Buxton up the middle is an elite major league lineup.

The point being if we had to make a choice for a $25MM/yr left side of the diamond infielder, Story is a much better investment than JD.

 

I couldn't agree more.

[cHawk]

8 hours ago, miller761 said:

Did the Twin's make a mistake signing Donaldson? Or did Donaldson make a mistake signing with the Twins?

I don’t think either of these statements are correct. Donaldson was expected to get more around 4 years/$110M, and the Twins got him for $18M less. He’s lived up to the contract he was given. The Twins didn’t make a mistake.

On the other side of that equation, the Twins looked to be a team going for it in 2020. I don’t think it was foolish for Donaldson to come here. Obviously they came up short in 2020 and then Falvey and Levine made a series of ****-ups that resulted in the disaster of 2021. Maybe it will ultimately be a mistake, but in Donaldson’s case it made sense at the time.

[Doc Munson]

Nope, Nope, and Nope.

Kikuchi?? This wouldnt be the WORST move the Twins could make,  If I wanted to promote this signing I would say he is a lefty, he averages over 5 innings per start and he is actually improving across the board year over year, BUT he is still a #3-4 starter and we could do better, plus with our Philosophy he will never get a chance to pitch past 5 innings anyways, no pitcher will so who cares that he averages more than 5 innings. One of his main values is moot with this teams pitching philosphy.

Rodriguez??   meh. insert any generic name here and would be equal. btu we will en dup having at LEAST one of our young starting prospects converted to a relief role this year, either because of innings limits, or wanting to maximize stuff out of the pen. (my guess is Duran).  again not a HORRIBLE move, but also doesnt do much.

 

Story???   RUN WAY!!!!!  hsi home/away splits are HORRIBLE!!!  Home = .972 OPS, Away = .752    His OPS+ home = 124 (or 24% better than average SS)  away = 76 (or 24% WORSE than average SS).  at home his K rate is 28%  on the road it is 34%.  The ONLY reason you sign Story is if it is a 1 year deal and we have plans to trade him at the deadline should one of our prospects prove ready.

 

[Game7-91]

On 2/19/2022 at 8:01 AM, beckmt said:

  It would still leave 1 - 2 spots for the prospects, who then could start in low leverage situations.

....and it appears that will be every game after June 1st.

[Shaitan]

On 2/19/2022 at 3:56 PM, miller761 said:

Going deep into the playoffs is what I was getting at. Not coming close to a World Series appearance does not mean the same as winning a World Series.

I generally agree, but it is far more complex about this because we don't know what Donaldson wants in a contract and never will. It's not just baseball. It's a job, so family, community, culture and more stuff play into it.

But I hope he's mad about last year. Every player should be. Because if they don't want to do better, well, I guess we know what the problem is...

[Cody Pirkl]

On 2/19/2022 at 7:27 AM, miracleb said:

"with a mid 4s ERA as he did in 2021 would slot in just fine"

 

Slot in just fine?  We have 3-4 "top pitching prospects" who could come close to doing mid 4's TODAY........why pay big money for mediocrity .......when we can have our own, home grown, medioc..........

I think you overestimate our pitching prospects if you're that comfortable saying they can just come up and post a mid 4s ERA. Not only are they not likely to do that, but they're also going to have severe innings limits.

If they paid Kikuchi that money and he posted 160+ innings of a 4.50 ERA he's probably this FOs 2nd best SP signing ever and would definitely make the team better.