The Twins Rotation Isn’t That Far From Fixing

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That rotation, Montas, Ryan, Odorizzi, Ober and Bundy would be somewhat competitive, at least enough that if the hitters really crush it, like 2019, they could legit contend for a division.

Montas is a legit 150-175 inning starter, the rest of that motley crew tops out at 150 with Ober and drops to 100 or less very quickly. 
 

that’s maybe 600 innings but of the 1500 the team needs for the season if they all stay healthy and effective. As another poster mentioned, there’s 4-5 ifs there.
 

half the innings pitched (after losing SWR who they need to supplement) comes from the farm (or Dobnak/Jax) at best. Probably more, someone is getting hurt.

Nope, not buying that 5 man rotation as competitive 

[travkro]

I'm not a fan of Montas. If you look at his numbers at home compared to on the road, he definitely benefits from dimensions of the A's ballpark as do all of their pitchers. He is a tier below Berrios. No Odo, we don't need 5 innings from him when it could mean developing someone with top of rotation possibility.

Sign Big Mike, give Dobnak one last shot at the rotation and roll with the young guys.

-Pineda

-Ober

-Ryan

-Dobnak

-Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, Sands

-Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, Sands

I hate a six man rotation but they have to figure out who they have in regards to their young arms. 2020 forces them to think differently about developing. 

Take the money and sign Story in an attempt to outscore teams as we see what we have. 

[RJA]

It looks to me that the Twins are planning to follow the Rays and Guardians approach and fill their pipeline with young pitchers, keep them until they get too expensive (unless they can get a team friendly early long term contract in place) and then trade them (like Berrios) and replace them with the next guys coming up.  So, I would be surprised if they trade for a Montas type as I doubt they would pay them what is necessary to keep them in two years.  On the other hand, Odo and Pineda I could see them signing on one year deals with an option, and I could see them signing Rodon IF he is healthy and he would agree to a one year deal.  Relying on Bundy makes no sense as he is simply a flyer, and both Ober and Ryan have not been around the league enough for us to see if they are for real, so this year will be big for them.  Given all this, I think they will try to field a decent rotation with one year guys, and will try to bring up a couple of the young guys to see what they can do.  If they surprise, they might add at the deadline, bu I think they are gearing up for 23 and 24.  

[Fritzderkat]

On 2/18/2022 at 7:04 PM, ashbury said:

Filling out the rotation to have exactly 5 starters in no way fixes anything for a long season.  We are in a world of hurt.

Having followed this team for 20 years, this would seem to be the usual state, with but a few brief exceptions.

[Riverbrian]

The choice is simple. 

A. Commit to the young starters - Right now - All of them. 

B.  Fill up the rotation with Odorizzi, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker, Pineda types forever more. 

 

[cHawk]

13 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The choice is simple. 

A. Commit to the young starters - Right now - All of them. 

B.  Fill up the rotation with Odorizzi, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker, Pineda types forever more. 

 

why not a mix of the two?

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, cHawk said:

why not a mix of the two?

When I stand at the sink. If I just turn on the hot water tap... it is usually too hot. If I just turn on the cold water tap... it is usually too cold. It isn't the right temperature until you starting combining them. 

A mix of the two is going to be required because you need to draw water from all taps. 

However, that hasn't been happening. It has been crafty vet after crafty vet.

I'm pro mix, I don't have a problem with the crafty vet but I have a problem with letting the crafty vet kill us when they are not as crafty as advertised. 

The kid can be sent down, the vet typically can't be sent down. It doesn't seem to matter who the GM is... When we sign those lower priced crafty veterans to fill out the rotation, those lower priced crafty veterans are given every opportunity to struggle in the process of re-finding that craft. 

Happ and Shoemaker were terrible and got way too many starts last year, helping sink the team in the process, resulting in meaningless baseball in September and a delayed discovery of Bailey Ober.

In 2019, Martin Perez was inconsistent to put it kindly and remained in the rotation all year at the expense of Randy Dobnak getting those starts. Come playoff time, they decide that Martin Perez was indeed not the guy and they hand the ball to Randy Dobnak in October but not in August. 

In 2018... Oh boy 2018. The year we lost Nick Anderson for Matt Belisle. Yeah... I've jumped off the cause and effect cliff but I directly tie the loss of Nick Anderson in the off season to Matt Belisle. The team was out of contention. Nick Anderson was striking out two batters an inning in Rochester, he was an upcoming 40 man roster decision and THEY SIGNED BELISLE to help them in a lost season keeping Anderson in Rochester. Not being allowed to strike out two batters an inning in Minnesota led to a low level trade to Miami where he struck out two batters an inning and our search for bullpen talent continues with a new crafty vet after crafty vet, year after year. Also, the crafty Logan Morrison being beyond terrible in 2018 and getting his name in the lineup card every day while they waited for him not to be terrible.... which never happened. 

I'm pro mix... it just hasn't been mixed. I don't have a problem with the signing of Morrison or Happ, I have a problem with the doubling down on Logan Morrison after it becomes obvious that the signing was a mistake.  

We are not going to sign Garrit Cole.  All of us should realize that by now. We will have to grow our own Garrit Cole.

Happ and Shoemaker types have for decades blocked the sunlight.