Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects: #6 Matt Canterino

[Jamie Cameron]

Matt Canterino has the best repertoire of a starting pitcher in the Minnesota Twins organization. He dominated two levels of minor league baseball in 2021. Read about his prospects ahead of the 2022 season.

Matt Canterino was drafted by the Twins in the second round of the 2019 draft, out of Rice University. In a similar fashion to other drafted in 2019, his organizational visibility was limited early, due to the shortened 2020. None of that slowed Canterino, however, as he showed significant advancements in his repertoire, velocity, and approach after joining the Twins alternate site at the end of the 2020 season.

Age: 24 (DOB: 12/14/1997)
2021 Stats (A and A+): 23 IP, 0.78 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 45 K, 4 BB
ETA: 2023
2021 Ranking: 9
National Top 100 Rankings:
BA: NR MLB: NR ATH: NR BP: NR

What’s to Like?

Off the mound, Matt Canterino is a friendly, likable player who is always generous with his time, thoughts, and perspective. On the mound, he’s an apex predator, pacing and stalking around the mound with the level of intent he brings to his pitches.

Canterino has a true four-pitch mix, beginning with a blazing fastball. At Rice, this sat in the low 90s, but he sits comfortably in the upper 90s with it now (reaching 99 mph). The other pitch which has developed into a significant weapon since he turned professional is his changeup, which has developed excellent tumble and is a plus pitch against hitters on both sides of the plate. 

Canterino also offers a deep curveball which sits in the high 70s/low 80s and a hard slider, which is his best breaking pitch. Canterino also has excellent control, (despite unusual, herky-jerky looking mechanics), walking just four hitters in 23 innings pitched in 2021 and dominating two levels of minor league baseball in the process. 

What’s Left to Work On?

Not much, in terms of his pitch mix or approach. Canterino now carries a 60-grade fastball to go with a 55-grade changeup and 55-grade slider, with 55-grade control. There’s really only one orange flag in his young career. Health.

Canterino missed the majority of 2021 with elbow injuries. Additionally, his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms. Canterino could not have had a more dominant start to his professional career, but the combination of a shortened season in 2020 and injuries in 2021 mean he has not pitched more than 25 innings in a season in his career to date. If he can remain healthy, he has middle to top of the rotation upside as a starting pitcher. Make no mistake, a healthy Matt Canterino in 2022 should be a dominant force in the minor leagues if his short track record is any indicator.

Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
#10: Josh Winder, RHP
#9: Chase Petty, RHP
#8: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
#7: Jhoan Duran

 

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[miracleb]

"his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms."

Are you just repeating what you have read elsewhere....or is there proof?  Being reckless with their arms would show up at Rice with the player actually getting injured......not 1-3 years later.....

[Dman]

His story reads a bit like Bailey Ober's except that he has a plus fastball.  Ober was dominant through the levels but could not stay healthy either until his MLB debut. So I wouldn't give up on him just yet.  He is throwing harder and that might have something to do with how he injured himself.  Have to make sure those mechanics line up and use those legs for torque not over compensate with the arm.  For Canterino it just seems like a matter of the arm holding up and he will be a viable starter likely better than Bailey Ober.  He just needs to stay within himself and stay healthy.  I don't think he has been hurt before last year so I bet he will make changes to ensure he is healthy this coming year.

[wabene]

34 minutes ago, miracleb said:

"his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms."

Are you just repeating what you have read elsewhere....or is there proof?  Being reckless with their arms would show up at Rice with the player actually getting injured......not 1-3 years later.....

In his three college years he pitched 15-17 starts and 94-99 innings. His second year at Rice he added 24 innings in a summer league. After his third year the Twins had him pitch 25 extra innings in the pros. So in three successive years he pitched 94, 118 and then 124 innings. Looks like he was on his way until 2020 screwed it up. Hope he can get his health back AND keep the upgraded stuff.

 

Not sure 15-17 starts at 6+ per is being over worked.

[mikelink45]

40 minutes ago, miracleb said:

"his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms."

Are you just repeating what you have read elsewhere....or is there proof?  Being reckless with their arms would show up at Rice with the player actually getting injured......not 1-3 years later.....

You made me think about this - here is a 2011 article with that same theme , "The theme "Rice pitchers get hurt" seems definitely true. Over a 20-year-period, the only Rice products who have done much at all in the majors are Jeff Niemann and David Aardsma, and neither of them had smooth development paths. "  J. T. Chagois is another Rice pitcher that we drafted.  He has had an injury plagued career.

"Jul 09, 2021 · Diamondbacks release injury-prone pitcher Jon Duplantier Former Rice baseball player Jon Duplantier is featured. USA Today " 

Not conclusive, but I see where the statement comes from.

[mikelink45]

This is a pitcher I am really excited about, but see my note on Rice University pitchers.  I just hope he breaks through the curse because I would love to see him get a dozen starts for the Twins this year. 

[TwinsAce]

45 minutes ago, miracleb said:

"his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms."

Are you just repeating what you have read elsewhere....or is there proof?  Being reckless with their arms would show up at Rice with the player actually getting injured......not 1-3 years later.....

Keith Law said the below on Caterino when ranking him 13th.  Seems like the health was the main/only concern Keith had as well.  (Other than changeup to continue to improve.)
"but the bigger concern is whether his elbow will allow him to do so. If not, add him to the list with fellow Rice alums Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, Phil Humber, Cole St. Clair, Jon Duplantier, Ryan Berry, Joe Savery, Kenny Baugh…"
https://theathletic.com/3115821/2022/02/09/twins-top-20-prospects-for-2022-keith-law-ranks-minnesotas-farm-system/

 

[TwinsAce]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

This is a pitcher I am really excited about, but see my note on Rice University pitchers.  I just hope he breaks through the curse because I would love to see him get a dozen starts for the Twins this year. 

I agree - arguably highest upside...but I'm super nervous we won't get to see his full potential.

[RJA]

Thanks for the summary, Jamie.  Like everyone else, I love this kid's stuff.  I saw his 10 strikeout game and he was amazing--his control and location were excellent.  When he is on, he can be almost unhittable.  As for his personality, what has impressed me when I watch Seth's interviews is how many of the Twins prospects are bright and thoughtful young men.  Matt is among them.  While we understandably focus on skills, having the right makeup can be an important predictor of success as well.  While I am frustrated by the FO's inaction in the free agent market, I do really like the stable of young arms that we have.  It could really be a fun year watching them progress through the system.

[roger]

I see him as the Twins pitching prospect with the highest ceiling.  Only question will be health and whether or not his body will allow him to achieve it.  Should he be ranked higher?  Should his health concerns push him a bit lower?  Good questions.

[DJL44]

The most important ability is availability. If it keeps him healthy he should back off on the pitch velocity.

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, wabene said:

In his three college years he pitched 15-17 starts and 94-99 innings. His second year at Rice he added 24 innings in a summer league. After his third year the Twins had him pitch 25 extra innings in the pros. So in three successive years he pitched 94, 118 and then 124 innings. Looks like he was on his way until 2020 screwed it up. Hope he can get his health back AND keep the upgraded stuff.

 

Not sure 15-17 starts at 6+ per is being over worked.

It's not the number of starts or the innings pitched that's the issue with Rice, it's the number of pitches they'll allow a kid to throw in those starts. 120 pitches? sure, no problem. 140? well, we need you to win today, so go right on out there. 150? You're graduating this spring, so why do we care? They are notorious for letting guys rack up huge pitch counts. 

[TwinsDr2021]

The only reason(s) IMO from being in MN this year, is the 40 man roster crunch or Injuries, if he doesn't stay healthy, I believe he will be just another body that needs to be on the 40 man next year.

[chpettit19]

Canterino looks like a top of the rotation guy if he can stay healthy. He's the guy I have the most hope for from a pitching ability view, but there's concern with every Rice pitcher who played for Wayne Graham. To the point that I question how he was ever able to get top arms to go there (to be fair he developed a large number of not highly recruited guys). He retired in 2018 so we can have hope that Canterino was saved from the full force of the Rice pitcher abuse, but who knows. Kid is legit if he stays healthy.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

In his three college years he pitched 15-17 starts and 94-99 innings. His second year at Rice he added 24 innings in a summer league. After his third year the Twins had him pitch 25 extra innings in the pros. So in three successive years he pitched 94, 118 and then 124 innings. Looks like he was on his way until 2020 screwed it up. Hope he can get his health back AND keep the upgraded stuff.

 

Not sure 15-17 starts at 6+ per is being over worked.

Agree. Wasn't a comment on him as much as his college program. Fingers crossed for 2022.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, TwinsAce said:

I agree - arguably highest upside...but I'm super nervous we won't get to see his full potential.

I think the reason I like Canterino so much as a prospect is he's the perfect balance of upside and 'already proven it' for me. Granted, the health will be the determining factor, but I'm pretty confident in his ability to show his upside.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, roger said:

I see him as the Twins pitching prospect with the highest ceiling.  Only question will be health and whether or not his body will allow him to achieve it.  Should he be ranked higher?  Should his health concerns push him a bit lower?  Good questions.

Agree with you Roger. It's not super common for a SP prospect to have 3 plus pitches, usually one is more a 'serviceable' pitch. If he had a track record of good health, I would place him at #3 overall on my personal Twins prospect list.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, RJA said:

Thanks for the summary, Jamie.  Like everyone else, I love this kid's stuff.  I saw his 10 strikeout game and he was amazing--his control and location were excellent.  When he is on, he can be almost unhittable.  As for his personality, what has impressed me when I watch Seth's interviews is how many of the Twins prospects are bright and thoughtful young men.  Matt is among them.  While we understandably focus on skills, having the right makeup can be an important predictor of success as well.  While I am frustrated by the FO's inaction in the free agent market, I do really like the stable of young arms that we have.  It could really be a fun year watching them progress through the system.

Agree with ALLL THIS. Thanks for reading!

[roger]

8 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Agree with you Roger. It's not super common for a SP prospect to have 3 plus pitches, usually one is more a 'serviceable' pitch. If he had a track record of good health, I would place him at #3 overall on my personal Twins prospect list.

Interesting comment, Jamie.  If you had him at #3, which of the trio of Lewis, Martin and Miranda gets dropped to #4 on your list?

[Monkeypaws]

How can you not root for this guy?

 

[jimbo92107]

Matt Canterino seems like a pretty good bet to me. He did have elbow trouble, but it's fixed now, right? He wasn't known for injuries before that, so...

I'm fairly optimistic, though he might consider backing off a couple mph to save his arm and get a bit more control. Maybe Wes Johnson can work his magic with Canterino, too. Get those mid-to high-90's heaters with proper mechanics, not just max effort. 

[Connor Gould]

He's one of the guys I'm the most hyped about pitching wise. Balazovic is at the top of that list since everything seems clean and Joe Ryan made his 5 September starts games I had to watch, but Canterino is number 3 in terms of guys I'm hyped for. Elite stuff, elite numbers, old enough to fast track, only question is injuries but Bailey Ober last year showed me that 100 innings is more than it looks like. He feels like about a year away from being where Winder is now in terms of timeline. 2023 rotation of Maeda, Ryan, Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, SWR, Duran will be fun, just gotta develop at least half the young dudes.

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, Connor Gould said:

just gotta develop at least half the young dudes.

They will be lucky if 1/4 are starters and 1/4 are relievers. If you want a home grown pitching staff of 13 pitchers you should start with 50 pitching prospects.

[Prince William]

10 hours ago, miracleb said:

"his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms."

Are you just repeating what you have read elsewhere....or is there proof?  Being reckless with their arms would show up at Rice with the player actually getting injured......not 1-3 years later.....

Rice University Pitchers in Professional Baseball - Minor League Ball

You can update the list if you would like 

MLB Amateur Draft Picks who came from "Rice University (Houston, TX)" | Baseball-Reference.com

[Prince William]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They will be lucky if 1/4 are starters and 1/4 are relievers. If you want a home grown pitching staff of 13 pitchers you should start with 50 pitching prospects.

a team shouldn't need 13 all at once.  hopefully only2 or3  prospects a year are needed

[wabene]

10 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not the number of starts or the innings pitched that's the issue with Rice, it's the number of pitches they'll allow a kid to throw in those starts. 120 pitches? sure, no problem. 140? well, we need you to win today, so go right on out there. 150? You're graduating this spring, so why do we care? They are notorious for letting guys rack up huge pitch counts. 

 

Oh if that's the case well then hells yeah. Canterino looks to be averaging over 6 innings per so that could be many many pitches