Do the Twins Have a Shortstop Development Problem?

[Cody Christie]

Four years ago, the top of Minnesota's prospect list was littered with shortstop prospects. Flash forward to 2022, and none of those prospects have yet to pan out. So, do the Twins have a shortstop development problem? 

 

When the Twins brought in Derek Falvey, much of his resume in Cleveland surrounded his ability to develop pitching. However, the team also drafted and developed Francisco Lindor during his tenure. Star shortstops are few and far between, but Minnesota is marred in a second straight winter looking for a replacement at one of baseball's most important positions. 

Falvey inherited a farm system that included strong shortstop prospects. Then in his first year, the team had the opportunity to select a shortstop with the first overall pick. After four years, it doesn't look like any of these shortstops will stick at the position for the long term. 

Royce Lewis
2018 TD Top Prospect Ranking: 1

What Was Said Then?
Lewis was considered one of baseball's top-30 prospects leading into the 2018 season. He possessed all the tools and make-up a franchise can hope for with the number one overall pick. It also looked like he was on a path to make the big leagues as early as the 2020 campaign. 

"This guy has a chance to change a franchise with his personality and charisma," said Twins scouting director Sean Johnson upon selecting Lewis. "He's a magnet. People want to be around him."

In his professional debut, he showed advanced skills at the plate that made it easy to project him as an above-average big-league player. Few prospects have as many tools as Lewis, especially looking at his potential back in 2018.

What Is Said Now?
Lewis is coming off surgery for a torn ACL in his right knee, and he hasn't appeared in an official game since the 2019 Arizona Fall League. His stock has dropped on many national prospect ranking lists, and there are questions about his future defensive position. His make-up and athletic ability were tested during the rehab process, and now fans will have to wait and see if he can live up to his sky-high expectations. 

Nick Gordon
2018 TD Top Prospect Ranking: 3

What Was Said Then?
At the time, Gordon ranked as one of baseball's top-100 prospects, but his rankings were all over the board. During the 2017 season, he posted a .749 OPS at Double-A as a 22-year-old. He represented the Twins at the Futures Game in Miami, and he was a Southern League All-Star. His power was developing, and he was three years younger than the average competition in the Southern League. 

Twins manager Paul Molitor told the Pioneer Press, "Not surprisingly, reports are his bat is still very advanced. We're trying to make sure the rest of his game catches up, and I think he is making progress in that regard."

He projected to have a floor as a solid big-league regular at second base, but there were questions about his ceiling. With solid production in the high minors, Gordon seemed like a lock to make his debut before the end of the 2019 season. 

What Is Said Now?
Gordon made his debut, but it took until the 2021 campaign. His projections as a future second baseman have been pushed to the side as he looks more likely to serve in a utility role at the big-league level. His bat didn't continue to develop, and that was his best skill in the lower levels of the minors. There is still hope he can surprise some fans with his performance moving forward. 

Wander Javier
2018 TD Top Prospect Ranking: 6

What Was Said Then?
Baseball America was the lone national outlet to include Javier in their top-100 prospects, but many other prospect outlets had him on their "just missed" lists. As a 19-year-old, he was coming off a 2017 season where he hit .299/.383/.471 (.854) between two rookie league levels. 

"He flashes an above-average feel for the barrel and should grow into more power as he gains weight," Baseball America wrote. "As he learns to recognize pitches better and strike out less, he should be able to hit at the top of the order."

It looked like Javier had all the tools to become a two-way star and the chance to stick at shortstop. Without an at-bat above rookie ball, patience would be required even with his rising prospect status. 

What Is Said Now?
Javier missed the 2018 season with a shoulder injury and then lost the 2020 season because of the pandemic. He spent 2019 at Cedar Rapids and struggled to post a .601 OPS in 80 games. Last season, he moved up to High-A (Still in Cedar Rapids) and saw his OPS jump 82 points. Javier has been left unprotected in the previous two Rule 5 Drafts, and there is a chance a team takes a chance on him when the lockout concludes. 

Will any of these players see significant time as a shortstop at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[The Mad King]

What happened that made Gordon no longer a SS candidate? Is his range that bad? Not enough arm? 

Or are we just drafting ss with the idea that if a kid has the ability to play short, he can easily transition into other positions?

 

[DocBauer]

To be fair to all 3 of these guys, no 2020 season hurt their development, as it did for most milb players. But in Lewis's case it was a double whammy as he then missed 2021 due to injury. (He does have the advantage at being at the alternate St Paul site in 2020 so as to continue getting in work and not stagnating). Wander missed a whole season due to surgery, then came back, then missed an entire second season. Gordon only missed the one year, but with his illness he might as well have been injured. Still not sure if he lost 15lbs or 25 as I've heard different reports. But he couldn't afford to lose any weight/strength like that.

I think Lewis is going to be just fine, but even being an optimist I'm still saying 2023 at the earliest.

Gordon has a history of growing and getting better his 2nd year at every level. I'm hoping that holds true this year, along with gaining some weight/muscle/strength back. He's probably never going to be anything close to a great hitter. But I'd take a decent one with speed and the ability to play all over the field defensively.

Javier is a wild card at this point. As mediocre as his bat was in 2021, it was better than the last time we saw him, and the power started to come. There is at least a decent chance a healthy 2022 sees him suddenly break through and start to put it together. Sure hope so!

Can't say 3 guys and injury, illness and covid over the past 4yrs is a clear indication of a "development problem" at this point. If it continues....well...then I think there may be some validity.

 

 

[Dman]

Yeah we had three guys that looked like they were can't miss shortstops.  Lewis still has a chance to get there but with two years away from the game he has been a forgotten man to this point.  Gordon never really filled out and never really developed much power.  He made his share of errors at short and given his slight frame seemed to have trouble making some of the throws from short at least IMO.  Javier never developed beyond that one good season and unless he has a breakout this year feels like he is who he is which would be AAAA player at best.  We even had Palacios mixed in there until we traded him supposedly because we had a surplus at the Shortstop position.  Man things can change in a hurry.

 At any rate I can't remember a more than average to below average shortstop coming out of the system since correct me if I am wrong but maybe Roy Smalley. Gagne and Punto were good defenders at the position but not that great with the bat.  It is a position they have historically had a hard time with.  Can they get lucky and have Lewis take over and do well? Hard to say but there isn't much in the system behind him right now.

[Trov]

I recall Gordon was a question at SS when past FO took him.  There was questions about his ability to stick there long term and 2nd base was expected at some point.  I would not say our current missed on him, he just never grew into SS role as was hoped.  Also, if you look at his progress curve for each level, he has always taken awhile to adjust.  I think the current FO just never liked him all that much and felt other guys had higher upside over him.  

For Javier he was one that was expected to stay at SS but was also super young. and for whatever reason never grew like expected.  It happens to every team.  In terms of Lewis, is it the organization, or is it the lost time and injury?  I mean we have talked about him moving off of SS but is that because he lacks the ability to play there, or someone else may be better?  Look at Manny Machado, and Marcus Semien, they were both SS coming up, Machado got moved off of SS to 3rd base because Baltimore had good defender in JJ Hardy.  Machado could defend SS, but was average to below average.  Semien was average to below average defender at SS but he played there for years at Oakland, then he got moved to 2b for Toronto.  

I have said in many posts, very few guys are elite or even above average at both offense and defense at SS.  The ones that are are superstar future HOF normally.  So if Lewis can be average defender but above average on offense, we will take it. 

Remember when Polonco was hitting above average at SS and we all were talking about he was future starter for years to come at SS.  Then his offense dropped off and all of a sudden we started talking about his poor defense at SS more and more and how he needs to play some where else. 

If Lewis comes up and hits above average, unless he is super terrible on defense, not many fans will complain.  I mean teams put up with Manny Rameriez in the field for years for some reason.  

[Doctor Gast]

SS is a very demanding and critical position, many drafted SS don't make it. It's very hard to find a true SS and you multipy the odds when you demand him to be an above average bat. 

I've asked the same question as you Cody if the Twins can effectly develop players at SS. Truthfully, IDK the answer to that. There were high hopes for these 3 young prospects when drafted. Maybe along with being a grueling position, injuries and absent '20 season derailed their SS careers. At this point I don't see Gordon or Javier as real SS options. Lewis was being groomed as a CF option until Polanco was moved to 2B. 

I still have hope in Lewis being a good fielding SS but I wouldn't want to depend on him w/o plan B. We're very shallow at SS so I think signing a Story to a few years contract isn't a bad idea. But getting back to the main subject, I think FO should re-evaluate our SS development and talent evaluations. Maybe they need improvement, maybe not.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah we had three guys that looked like they were can't miss shortstops.  Lewis still has a chance to get there but with two years away from the game he has been a forgotten man to this point.  Gordon never really filled out and never really developed much power.  He made his share of errors at short and given his slight frame seemed to have trouble making some of the throws from short at least IMO.  Javier never developed beyond that one good season and unless he has a breakout this year feels like he is who he is which would be AAAA player at best.  We even had Palacios mixed in there until we traded him supposedly because we had a surplus at the Shortstop position.  Man things can change in a hurry.

 At any rate I can't remember a more than average to below average shortstop coming out of the system since correct me if I am wrong but maybe Roy Smalley. Gagne and Punto were good defenders at the position but not that great with the bat.  It is a position they have historically had a hard time with.  Can they get lucky and have Lewis take over and do well? Hard to say but there isn't much in the system behind him right now.

Smalley would have been good, but he did not come out of our system.  Like Cristian Guzman he was a trade acquisition, as was Nick Punto and Gagne.  Got to go back further. 

[mikelink45]

For two years in Detroit it looked like Niko Goodrum was the best SS the Twins had developed, but his last two years were not good at all.  Can Cavaco make it?  Can Noah Miller?  They are too far off and at their stage Gordon, Lewis, and Polanco looked like future SSs.  Of course so did Austin Martin and no one talks about that anymore.  

[TwinsDr2021]

I think if you go back a few years on this site, the consensus was the Twins had a wealth of SS prospects.

Lewis, Javier, Gordon, Cavaco, Will Holland. So my answer to the topic question is, yes they absolutely have a SS development problem, but so might 25 or so other teams. 

[Dman]

42 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Smalley would have been good, but he did not come out of our system.  Like Cristian Guzman he was a trade acquisition, as was Nick Punto and Gagne.  Got to go back further. 

Yeah sorry couldn't remember where Smalley came from thanks for that!

[bean5302]

The answer to the question is... Yes. The Twins seem very incapable of developing shortstops who can field balls cleanly. I don't understand why the error rate for Twins infielders, particularly shortstops is so high, but it's an obvious issue in my opinion.

[PDX Twin]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah sorry couldn't remember where Smalley came from thanks for that!

He came to the Twins (along with others) from Texas in a trade for Bert Blyleven in 1976. Interesting that they both ended up as Twins broadcasters 40 years later.

[Old fox]

I have faith in Lewis being an excellent ss . Yes, he hasn’t played any in the past 2 years but his natural abilities are still there but they will come back. I believe he could be back in the Twins line up by the the “all star” game. He was thrown into cf quandary because of all the problems there and Buxton’s health. 

[Longdistancetwins]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Smalley would have been good, but he did not come out of our system.  Like Cristian Guzman he was a trade acquisition, as was Nick Punto and Gagne.  Got to go back further. 

Pat Meares came up with the Twins, I believe.  Before that, Danny Thompson and Zoilo Versalles were from our system.  We did know how to find good shortstops in trades:  Leo Cardenas, Smalley, Gagne, and Guzman, but we gave up big names to get them when they were little more than prospects (Cardenas excepted).

[Game7-91]

Gagne was partially developed by Twins, I believe 2 yrs in Twins minors after Smalley trade. Twins get partial credit for his and also Guzman's development. But thats a long time since Guzman, so yes, we have an issue, and not having drafted and developed a frontline SS is a red flag. Twins need to dedicate more resources to evaluating, drafting, developing talent at all levels of org, with emphasis on pitching, catchers, SS and CF's. 

[DocBauer]

I've been thinking about this topic all day, plus reading additional posts, and have decided I have more to add. SURPRISE! LOL.

#1] Really, just like any position player or pitcher, does it matter if you  drafted/signed a SS or traded for one, but you developed one via trade, does it matter? You still worked/developed him. So he's still YOURS!

#2] Lewis and Cavaco are the top draft choices for our current FO. (I'm leaving out recent international 16yo signings). The current FO inherited any other SS prospects. And if you are plugged in to the multiple changes that have taken place over the past few seasons, milb coaching and approach has gone through a huge transformation. 

So trying to bind the current system to years of SS frustration to the current system  would be disingenuous. 

The Twins might have been wrong drafting Cavaco as a fast riser, 5 tool athlete. Just about ready to turn 20yo, we'll see. He might still surprise. Time is on his side. 

Lewis is about health. Period! And I don’t pretend to be any sort of expert. But I've seen enough in ST games, and TD highlights  to see he has the range, arm, and athleticism to make the plays. But he also has to make the routine plays as well. If he has the ability to make the great plays, doesn't he have the potential to make the routine plays as well?

I agree that good offense and OK defense makes him a great player. I think experience and time could make him at least better than average in both categories. But does 2022 define him? Maybe. I'd be happy as hell if he was healthy in 2022 and got his legs under him and split the season between AA early and finished at AAA. 

 

[twinsfansd]

Another shortstop the Twins developed comes to mind. Jay Bell. But they trades him to Cleveland for Bert Blyleven. Bell became a very good player after Cleveland traded him to Pittsburg.

 

[Throwback Uniform Guy]

This is a great question. I’ve never understood why we keep getting stop-gap players at SS. So it may be that we have issues in development, or scouting issues. Another issue, IMO, is the organization’s propensity to stagnate the prospects advancement to the majors so that they can retain control of the service years of the players - thus delaying arbitration issues if they succeed. I understand that a prospect needs time to adjust to pro ball. But when you draft a guy who was in the top 5 prospects in baseball, 5 - 6 years in the minors seems a bit long. 

[LastOnePicked]

Yes. And we even seem to have a problem signing what we can't develop. Though I'm hoping that either Lewis or Martin will soon defy the skeptics and rise to the challenge of making SS their own.

[Thegrin]

I'd rather have a slick fielding shortstop that can hit a little. hmmmm. Sounds like Simpson to me.

[mikelink45]

Kiley McDaniel on ESPN has Lewis as the number 56 prospect on his top 100 list and says this, "The most likely outcome here is a super-utility player every good team needs"  Not what has been expected.  

He has Austin Martin at 57 and lists him as a 2B.  "He now looks to be a bit overmatched at shortstop and will be on an upper-minors Twins utility merry-go-round with Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda and Spencer Steer." "I think second base is Martin's best long-term fit"

He looks at Miranda at 3B and says,"Miranda has migrated from a primary second baseman as an amateur to now fitting best at either third base (where he's fringe-average) or first base (where he'll go if he regresses at third base)."

For top 100 prospects those are not glowing statements. What is really apparent is that no one outside the Twins sees them as answers at SS.

I have no idea who Kiley McDaniel is, but it is still interesting to read.   

[AceWrigley]

Jermaine Palacios called. Wanted to let everybody know that after a solid AA season last year and tearing it up in Venezuela this winter he might be worth a look at shortstop this spring/summer or whenever we play baseball again.

[DJL44]

I haven't seen anyone mention Jason Bartlett. The Twins traded him away for Delmon Young.

[Minny505]

If Lewis can stick at SS as a 2 WAR player for a half dozen years, I would consider that a win. 

I'm just so hesitant about thinking guys can play a solid MLB level SS when they are already getting talk about moving off the position in the minors. Usually the guys that stick as MLB SS's never have those kinds of concerns. 

[mikelink45]

And Law says about Austin Martin our highest ranked Twin on his top 100 (Martin is 25) " In the field, he’s athletic enough to play almost anywhere, certainly to be a plus defender at third base, but he’s had throwing issues since the start of his junior year and at this point is probably going to end up in centerfield or at second base. "

Miranda (96) "The Twins have tried him at several positions, including second, first, and left, but so far he’s looked best at third base, where he’s still only fringe-average and may not get better given how much he’s filled out. " 

No one else in the top 100 except Balazovic

Lewis is not in the top 100 any more, but he is number 4 on the Twins list by law and Law says,. "he’s always been better suited to center than shortstop, where he was below-average the last time we saw him."  

There are no other SS in Laws Top Twenty for the Twins. 

[Riverbrian]

I don't know if the development issue has been rectified for the future but looking back over the last decade... The answer to the question is without a doubt... Yes... Absolutely Yes that the Twins have (at least had) a development problem. Let's see what the future brings. 

I know this article is specific to the SS position but this isn't just a SS thing... the Twins have had a development problem period. SS's, OF, SP, RP, you name it. 

Yeah, we've produced some major league players that we can all point to... But... that's simple to do. All teams produce major league ball players by simply putting a major league uniform on them and writing their name in the lineup.

To get a grasp on the depth of this development dry spell over the past decade (that I pray the Twins are getting out of) you just need to look at what the other teams are willing to pay for our developed players. The Twins have failed to increase the value of their players. 

No farm raised Twin has hit free agency in position to haul in a mega contract... No Manny Machado's, No Garrit Cole's, No Corey Seager's, Not even an Eric Hosmer type mega contract value.  This is a failure to increase the value of their players which is a direct reflection on organizational development. 

Want to start a rebuild?  they've had nothing of significance produced to trade to other teams for prospects in order to hasten that rebuild... No farm raised Twin has interested the other teams enough to part with their top tier prospects over the past decade... at least until Berrios came along. 

Where are the home grown Minnesota Twins superstars? Haven't see one since Joe Mauer. Due to sub-par years the draft position has been good but yet... where are the superstars? It could be argued that Byron Buxton is a superstar but he just signed a deal for 7 years at 100 Million. That isn't superstar money and in the end, it expresses his value. 

Name a farm raised Twin that a typical fantasy baseball player would have taken in the first two rounds in a 12 team league. I can't think of any. 

Our development has frankly sucked... period. I'm hoping that it is getting better.  

[mike8791]

 

Law: Lewis is not a shortstop and has now lost probably a thousand pro plate appearances to injury and the pandemic. And before that, his swing mechanics were a disaster. “Iffy” is kind. His leg kick, which I’m told he instituted himself, screwed up his timing.

So, the last time we saw Lewis hitting with “good” mechanics was 3 1/2 years ago, and he still needs a position change, and there’s a chance he won’t get his 80-grade speed back after the ACL injury.

If someone thinks he belongs on a top-100 list now, with all of those factors (including an awful performance in 2019), I would say they’re not looking at the subject objectively. There are absolutely 100 better prospects out there, considering probability, performance, upside and time to the majors.

Above is from Gleeman's interview with Keith Law in The Athletic.  This is as scathing an opinion of the current Lewis that I have seen.  While, like all prognosticators, Law is by no means infallible, he is certainly one of the most respected.  As he said above, there is little reason to this point to look at Lewis as a top prospect anymore, particularly at SS.  If so, this #1 overall prospect pick by Falvine is a colossal failure.  There is just no sugar coating it!  Throw in their failure to develop even one solid major league pitcher in their 5+ years, not to mention their timidity in FA,  one has to wonder - how have they held their jobs?  Patience is one thing; putting your head in the sand is another.

 

[Johnny Ringo]

"Shortstop" prospects are often not really shortstops. Youth baseball favors putting toolsy players there who are simply the best athlete on the team. That skillset often doesn't translate into the majors. I think that is clearly the case with Gordon and I like Nick. His attitude seems to be of All-Star caliber if his game is not.

With Lewis and the others, we simply do not know their real viability at the position. COVID and injuries have certainly obscured any conclusions.

The Twins' problem at shortstop is just a part though of the club's poor drafting and development challenges more broadly. For instance, our track record of producing home-grown pitchers is just flatly bad. The current crop is promising, but on that too, we shall see.   

[AceWrigley]

On 2/17/2022 at 12:43 PM, DJL44 said:

I haven't seen anyone mention Jason Bartlett. The Twins traded him away for Delmon Young.

Did we get a BBQ with that?

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

poor drafting and development challenges

Don't forget how awful they are at signing and developing international free agent pitchers. That's 1/3 of the pitching talent in the league and the Twins have produced zilch. Brusdar Graterol, Fernando Romero and Edwar Colina are the best they have produced in the last decade. They signed Huascar Ynoa but traded him away before he was out of rookie ball for a pitcher who made exactly one start for the Twins. It's embarassing.