We Should Be More Excited About Noah Miller

[Cody Pirkl]

It’s been a long time since the Twins have had anything close to a franchise shortstop. After years of drafting and signing possible suitors, however, the Twins may have finally hit on a prospect who can one day man one of the weakest positions in their franchise history.

The Twins opted to draft Noah Miller 36th overall in the 2021 draft after taking right-handed pitcher Chase Petty with their first pick. Petty got a deserved amount of hype for his triple-digit fastball and future upside as a stud pitcher, but Miller appears to have gotten overshadowed just a bit too much.

Noah Miller boasts fantastic contact ability with a great eye at the plate, average speed, and developing power. He pairs his raw skills with highly touted athleticism and baseball IQ, all of which adds up to a fantastic floor even for a player drafted out of high school. His lack of standout offensive ability would give him the ceiling of a decent major league player if he has to move to a position like outfield or second base, but there appears to be more and more optimism in his ability to remain at shortstop.

Miller falls into the mid-teens across most Twins prospect ranking lists. Keith Law of the Athletic, however, recently released his ranking of the Twins system and bumped Miller all the way up to 10. For those unfamiliar with Law, he’s recognized for being particularly pessimistic (or perhaps realistic) when it comes to ranking prospects. 

Law essentially believes in Miller’s safe offensive profile and more importantly his ability to play a sufficient shortstop. While Miller doesn’t have the ceiling to be the next Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wander Franco, Law believes Miller has an achievable ceiling as an everyday contributor at the position. An evaluator as highly regarded as Keith Law making such a statement should be exciting, and Twins fans in particular should have an appreciation for this possibility playing out.

It seems to be a yearly tradition where the Twins either draft or internationally sign a significant number of shortstops and fans ask “Why?”. Despite the perception of casting a wide net at this position, the Twins have made little progress in developing any players who are anywhere near a lock to be the long-term answer. Typically we see these “shortstops” Make a pivot elsewhere on the diamond shortly thereafter.

In regards to the history of the Minnesota Twins, Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop in consecutive Opening Days in 2019 and 2020. Before him Pedro Florimon earned that honor in 2013 and 2014. Since 2004 however when Christian Guzman made his 6th consecutive Opening Day start, the position has essentially been a revolving door.

Miller may be a long way off from Major League action at just 19 years old, but his offensive skillset that made him a first round pick is also one that gives him a relatively good shot at an MLB career. Twins fans saw with Aaron Sabato in 2021 that even in the first round there’s significant risk with prospects that have a feast or famine slugger profile. While prospects are always risky, Miller’s contact ability alone may give him a slightly better chance of overcoming the minor league gauntlet over the next few years.

The bar is admittedly set quite low when it comes to shortstops in Twins territory. That being said, if Noah Miller has a full 2022 of proving he can do it at shortstop, his notoriety is going to go through the roof. For as much flak as the Twins get for their pitching development, taking a first-round shortstop who actually pans out would be an incredible development for the organization.

There are a lot of MLB-ready prospects to watch in 2022, but none have an opportunity to raise their stock quite as much as Noah Miller. We won’t see him in Minneapolis this summer, but we just may be talking about him as the future franchise shortstop by this time next year.

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[miracleb]

Did we have these same high hopes for Levi Michael?  

[miracleb]

PS   I have these same high hopes for Noah Miller!  ?

 

[mikelink45]

I am reluctant to jump on the band wagon, but do appreciate the profile.  We have had so many SS prospects that just did not make it into the bigs and from HS to MLB is a long road to travel.  If he does it I will be really happy, but until I see a couple minor league seasons I cannot become as enthusiastic as many of you prospect listers.  We once saw Polanco as the SS of the future and now their is weeping and gnashing when he is suggested for playing there again. 

WIth all the anticipation of Lewis we keep reading he might not be a SS, same with Austin Martin.  We drafted Gordon high and SS might be his best position, but is not good enough for the major leagues.  miracleb mentioned Levi Michaels.  Wander Javier seemed to flame out, Cavaco is all promise and no results.  I remember when we brought up Palacios way to young, way to early and yet it looked like a sign - which of course meant he went away and then we got him back as a minor league free agent.  Thus my reservation about SS excitement.  

Thanks for the enthusiasm, now keep us informed as he progresses. 

[stringer bell]

It seems that Miller's upside is tied to his ability to stay at SS. When the scouting report says "average speed", I wonder if he'll be able to stay at the position. Speed doesn't necessarily equal range as Simmons has shown and I also wonder about arm strength, any report on that? Finally, we have an older brother who is in MLB--he was a shortstop, but came to the Guardians as a second baseman (played one game at short) so I wonder if Noah would follow the same path as Owen.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

It seems that Miller's upside is tied to his ability to stay at SS. When the scouting report says "average speed", I wonder if he'll be able to stay at the position. Speed doesn't necessarily equal range as Simmons has shown and I also wonder about arm strength, any report on that? Finally, we have an older brother who is in MLB--he was a shortstop, but came to the Guardians as a second baseman (played one game at short) so I wonder if Noah would follow the same path as Owen.

I'm yet to see any scouting report that doesn't think he has the arm, range, or hands to stay at short. The question is his bat. His upside is tied to his ability to stay at short because people don't think he'll have the bat to profile at a corner spot. But at this point I don't see anyone suggesting he's likely to outgrow the position or have to move off SS for his glove or arm.

My understanding of Owen is that he could play SS (but would be slightly stretched there), but Cleveland had just traded Lindor for 2 young shortstops and have a number of other young short stops as well so they don't feel the need to play him there. He was a 3rd round pick out of college while Noah is a first round comp pick out of HS. People feel Noah has the higher upside.

[roger]

Yes we should.  I’ve been saying that since the day he was drafted.  But then I have a soft spot in my heart for everything from the Badger state.

want to second what chipettit19 said because it is huge.  His brother moved quickly from college to the Indians with all reports indicating Noah is the better player/prospect.  That is huge!

seems to me he does everything well.  Isn’t that what we think of as a good baseball player.  Returning to my Badger side, will state that I believe we are gonna see him in a Twins uniform a lot sooner than most expect.

[Trov]

3 hours ago, miracleb said:

Did we have these same high hopes for Levi Michael?  

Wow, I forgot about him.  I know when he was drafted many were not that high on him and was talked about as a stretch. 

[Doctor Gast]

Although speed is fine for a SS, quickness and intuition are more desirable and of course arm strength would make him elite.

Many fans put power above all even for a SS. IMO I'll take a SS who has an elite glove who has an average bat than a SS with power and a below average glove. Just like when we evalute pitchers, we don't look to see if he has power or even if he can hit (therefore DH has come into the picture) we look at what he can do on the mound. SS is a critical position, so we need to put more importance on what he can do on the field.

Rarely a drafted SS ever thrives there or even sticks there especially for the Twins lately. So many moved onto to other  postions and thrived. So if the scouts think that Miller could thrive at SS, that gets me excited.

PS: I loved to watch Florimon play SS, was sad to see him so briefly.

[Nashvilletwin]

Ok, so sign Story and we can transition to Miller - if and when that becomes realistic in 3-4 years. 
 

The point being that Cody nailed the critical point; namely, we have been historically weak with a revolving door strategy at the diamond’s most important position. 
 

So solve our SS issue and have a rich person’s problem if Noah (or any of the others) actually pan out. 

[jimbo92107]

I like to read about another hot Twins SS prospect before I do my morning bathroom. By the time I get out, I'm so refreshed! 

It's a little like Sally holding the football for Charlie Brown. Now Imagine Sally holding 3 footballs just for the SS position (Lewis, Martin, Miller). I'm not even looking for a Tatis, just an everyday shortstop. 

So many footballs, so little time. Sally's holding what, 6 to 9 footballs for pitchers? That's why I'd just as soon watch them call 'em all up. Let the whiffing begin. At least we can chuckle at the chaos. 

[Scott51104]

"Lucy," said the Peanuts section.

[Dman]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am reluctant to jump on the band wagon, but do appreciate the profile.  We have had so many SS prospects that just did not make it into the bigs and from HS to MLB is a long road to travel.  If he does it I will be really happy, but until I see a couple minor league seasons I cannot become as enthusiastic as many of you prospect listers.  We once saw Polanco as the SS of the future and now their is weeping and gnashing when he is suggested for playing there again. 

WIth all the anticipation of Lewis we keep reading he might not be a SS, same with Austin Martin.  We drafted Gordon high and SS might be his best position, but is not good enough for the major leagues.  miracleb mentioned Levi Michaels.  Wander Javier seemed to flame out, Cavaco is all promise and no results.  I remember when we brought up Palacios way to young, way to early and yet it looked like a sign - which of course meant he went away and then we got him back as a minor league free agent.  Thus my reservation about SS excitement.  

Thanks for the enthusiasm, now keep us informed as he progresses. 

I have to agree with you and I am pretty jaded so likely biased when it comes to the shortstop position.  It seems to be a position where you can't be weak in any area of your player profile.  Too weak of an arm (i.e. Polanco, Martin) and you get moved off it.  Strong arm but unable to consistently make good throws from the position (i.e. Gordon) and suddenly a player doesn't look so good there. Start as a 45 or 50 runner in high school and most all of those guys end up moving off the position.  It is a really tough position to play and seems like players that are tooled up have the best chance to stay there.

There are a lot of things to like about Miller and having the footwork and arm to make good throws is a big part of the position and the most likely reason Law has him as high as he is.  And yet when the best thing he has to say about Miller is "he should be a guy whose performance always seems to rise above his tools".  That isn't exactly a ringing endorsement to me.

So given all the baggage of the Twins rarely finding players who can play the position plus the fact Miller is currently a player with mainly average tools count me in the biased camp that see's it as unlikely that he stays at short.  I know I have a pretty negative lens and I hope he proves me wrong but I guess we will have wait and see how things ultimately turn out.

[RJA]

I think in many ways shortstop is the hardest position to project for young players.  Sano started as a shortstop, Royce Lewis was a can't miss shortstop prospect (he may still fill the bill--this year is huge for him), Polanco came up as a shortstop, Martin played shortstop in college, etc., etc.  I actually believe shortstop is a position best filled by free agents who have demonstated the ability to stay in the position in the majors.  That is probably why great shortstops are gobbled up in free agency.  I think Miller has potential to stick at short, but it will all depend on his bat and if he retains his quickness as he gets older.  Some young players learn to drive the ball as they age, some don't.  One thing in his favor is that he seems like a smart kid who is coachable and that can make all the difference  in the world.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

With the shifts being used today, the Twins need 2 shortstops (like Houston with Bregman and Correa) to play SS and 3B.  Rifles for arms, quick feet, sticky gloves, smart leaders, able to hit above ,250 with some power (20 HR's) and  STRIKE OUT LESS THAN 25% OF THE TIME .  (Note: Caps were intended to make a point that I'm disgusted with the lack of contact in may hitters today.)

[bean5302]

I'm cautious about Miller. I want to see some production before I get too excited.

[dgdynasty]

as it is for all Minnesota teams: if it seems too good to be true, it probably is

[miracleb]

19 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I like to read about another hot Twins SS prospect before I do my morning bathroom. By the time I get out, I'm so refreshed! 

It's a little like Sally holding the football for Charlie Brown. Now Imagine Sally holding 3 footballs just for the SS position (Lewis, Martin, Miller). I'm not even looking for a Tatis, just an everyday shortstop. 

So many footballs, so little time. Sally's holding what, 6 to 9 footballs for pitchers? That's why I'd just as soon watch them call 'em all up. Let the whiffing begin. At least we can chuckle at the chaos. 

Oh Jimbo...so much effort...so little research!     LUCY!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Choo Choo! 
 

im on board for my latest countryman to be in the Twins system 

[Trov]

Many teams draft players that play SS for HS, knowing they most likely will not stay there.  Sano was signed as a SS, knowing full well he would not stay there.  Cuddy was drafted as a SS, ended up being a good RF.  It happens all the time.  It is not like when a player gets drafted as a hitter and shifts to pitcher, or other way round.  

I also feel some people are a little unrealistic at SS.  Very few SS are elite hitters and fielders.  The ones that are tend to be on way to HOF.  Some people, even think a SS is better defender than they are because of the offense, or they make some good looking plays but overall not that good at defending.  Derek Jeter for much of his career past age 30 was poor on defense, but he was the captain and for the Yankees so they just kept plugging him there, despite being well below average defender at that time. 

Even looking at todays SS not may are elite at both.  Last year the top defending SS were, Nicky Lopez, Fansico Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Simmons, Brandon Crawford, Correa.  Among the worst defense, meaning they were at least below average, Story, Bichette, Seager.  When you look at top offense guys, Brandon Crawford was one of best offense, Correa was up there as well.  Lindor was okay, but not elite last year.  The rest of the top defenders were generally either average offense wise, or below average, just like the top offense guys were either average or below average on defense. 

Really, if you can have a SS that can be above average at one, and average at the other you are doing just fine.  Too often we look at the offense and forget about the defense.  Mainly, as long as the player is not making terrible errors we do not think about the balls they did not get to, that top defenders would.  If we do not see an error, we do not think it was a bad play most of the time.  However, we can always see if the guy is terrible on offense.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

Many teams draft players that play SS for HS, knowing they most likely will not stay there.  Sano was signed as a SS, knowing full well he would not stay there.  Cuddy was drafted as a SS, ended up being a good RF.  It happens all the time.  It is not like when a player gets drafted as a hitter and shifts to pitcher, or other way round.  

I also feel some people are a little unrealistic at SS.  Very few SS are elite hitters and fielders.  The ones that are tend to be on way to HOF.  Some people, even think a SS is better defender than they are because of the offense, or they make some good looking plays but overall not that good at defending.  Derek Jeter for much of his career past age 30 was poor on defense, but he was the captain and for the Yankees so they just kept plugging him there, despite being well below average defender at that time. 

Even looking at todays SS not may are elite at both.  Last year the top defending SS were, Nicky Lopez, Fansico Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Simmons, Brandon Crawford, Correa.  Among the worst defense, meaning they were at least below average, Story, Bichette, Seager.  When you look at top offense guys, Brandon Crawford was one of best offense, Correa was up there as well.  Lindor was okay, but not elite last year.  The rest of the top defenders were generally either average offense wise, or below average, just like the top offense guys were either average or below average on defense. 

Really, if you can have a SS that can be above average at one, and average at the other you are doing just fine.  Too often we look at the offense and forget about the defense.  Mainly, as long as the player is not making terrible errors we do not think about the balls they did not get to, that top defenders would.  If we do not see an error, we do not think it was a bad play most of the time.  However, we can always see if the guy is terrible on offense.  

Based on this analysis, Polanco should be the Twins SS this year. I would rather have a top defender at SS and a below average hitter, rather than a top hitter and below average defender. I can see both sides of this argument, however this is just my preference. .

[h2oface]

Everybody is a shortstop..... and then they are not.

[Thegrin]

Levi Michael! What a timely memory. This is what a top Twins draft pick looks like. 2011 #1 Draft Pick, (30th overall) Never played for the Twins. Never made the Major Leagues. Last played in 2019. He may have been a nice guy and a good teammate, but for the Twins, it was a wasted pick.

PS. In 2012 Byron Buxton was the #1 Twins pick. (2nd overall, after Carlos Correa.) and Jose Berrios was the #32 overall compensation pick.

[nicksaviking]

On 2/12/2022 at 6:29 AM, miracleb said:

Did we have these same high hopes for Levi Michael?  

No. Michael had zero upside and was a college bat. He wasn't even a particularly good college bat; he had no power and his only skill was being able to draw a walk. I wasn't alone in loathing that pick from the get go.

[twinstalker]

This is just pure optimism based on fandom.  If Noah Miller had been taken by another organization, you would have zero reason to believe he'd outdo his general consensus ranking of around 70 prior to being overdrafted by the Twins at 36.

The chances he's as good as Greg Gagne are miniscule.