Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects #11-15

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think the big difference between Lewis and Torkelson, is that Torkelson has played one year in them minors at three levels, hit 30 homers and had a .935 OPS. Lewis hasn't been played in two years, and the expectation of the two are way different going into this year. I would expect Torkelson should contribute in the majors, and IMO Lewis shouldn't be expected to even play in the majors this year. (hopefully he can exceed those expectations and prove people wrong) But that is the reason Torkelson is a top 10 prospects and Lewis is barely in the top 100.

IMO age is a huge difference, but Lewis isn't a good example, because he is still young, He can still make the majors by 23, even if it is the start of 2023.

have a good weekend.

You're sort of making my point here. You suggested age was important and provided a chart to explain why. I said there's more factors, but obviously the younger the better. I then provided examples as to why just going off the age of prospects is leaving a lot out. Now you're doing what I suggested in the beginning and using more factors to explain why age is important, but not all that important since there's all these other factors. I don't get why age is a "huge difference," but then suddenly it isn't for Lewis, or Torkelson, or Rutschman, or any of 100 other guys I could list if I wanted to take the time.

My point is that it's better to have guys reach the majors at a young age, but to simply say "this prospect is too old so he should be dropped in rankings" is leaving a lot out of the equation. And you've provided many other factors as to why you can't simply look at Torkelson, Rutschman, and Lewis' ages and compare them. Which has been my point from the beginning. Plus the fact that we're currently looking at a list of prospects that we should be happy if they even make the majors which means their ages matter even less. I mean just comparing Rutschman and Torkelson you can make the argument that their ages don't matter. I think Detroit would trade Torkelson for Rutschman straight up right now, but Adley is a year and a half older, and been in the minors longer. So age is a factor, but not much beyond the idea that it's better to have them there sooner. 

Enjoy your weekend as well!

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not disagreeing with you but Torkelson might not be the best example, he was drafted in 2020, played basically all of 21 as a 21 year old and played at A+, AA, and AAA, and won't turn 23 until August, so unless Detroit is playing a service game he should see the majors at age 22.

Rutschman I believe was affected by Covid and if not for that would more than likely have been in the majors last year as a 23 year old (since his birthday was a week ago). Matt Wallner was drafted in the same draft and hasn't played above A+.

Those guys were the #1 overall picks in their drafts... huge difference in what the timelines are like between that and someone taken 39th overall. 

I don't care about Wallner's age. As mentioned, he missed the covid year and he missed 2+ months last year with a hamate bone surgery. 

They're all individual stories and that's OK. I personally don't care if a player gets called up at 21 or 26... it matters in prospect rankings to some degree, but it's just one factor. Doesn't really matter for how much of an impact the player can have. Exceptions to every rule. 

[Rosterman]

The whole age thing? You see enough to develop the player in your own way. Do they need a college program (and metal bats)?

 

Right now, the Twins have Royce Lewis and Austin Martin. Both roughly the same age. They have to protect Lewis. But both, if Lewis hadn't missed a season, would be at the same level, fighting for the regular job at AAA. Hey, Lewis would be in the majors if he didn't m,iss a year to COVID, except for the slight setback at the plate in 2019 before Fall League play.

 

Sands will get an opportunity in 2022 because he could be considered as much a relief arm as a starting arm. The question will be where does he pitch. In AA he will be able to start regularly as the mound will be full at AAA.

 

Varland and Wallner need not be protected until next winter. Which means, beyond a mirale need, neither will see major league play until 2023 at the earliest (sadly, maybe). 

 

Celestino now has three more years of develoopment before needing to be a regular. The Twins will keep him as backup for Buxton and have him play his heart out in centerfield at St. Paul. If Buxton stays well, Celestino is still the choice to come up if Kepler would also go down (because he can play center as a backup). But the Twins can carefully watch and see him develop his skills further (at age 22 only here) to be a possible regular in a year or two or three. Who knows if Buxton will still be in center come 2025?

 

Noah Miller is one of those guys. You don't know where he will be in 5-6 years. Will Martin or Lewis be our shortstop? Will Wander or Keoni be our shortstop? We have three solid bonus names in the system, still so young, still so far away from being called upon to be a regular. Remember, five years in the minors before needed a 40-man add. They four more years in the system playing backup. Do we want to push a Miller to be a star at 20, at 22, be happy at 24, by okay at 26?

 

[MN_ExPat]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

#1: But if we're talking ages then their draft year doesn't really matter, right? So Torkelson will debut at 22. If Royce Lewis debuts before June he'd debut at the same age, but people view him very differently since he was drafted well before Spencer. Time in the minors vs age are 2 very different things to me. That's why age isn't that huge to me. And that's why I keep saying there are far more variables and rankings are more complex.

#2: These rankings are literally saying the TD writers don't have great hope in Wallner. They're saying they'll be happy if he makes the majors and has any sort of positive impact at all.

#1: I very much agree

#2: Uhh... are you sure about that? I do not think that means what you think it means?  

[DocBauer]

Man, all I wanted to do was comment on the list and then we started the whole age debate thing. Now I have to try NOT to be as long winded as I normally am! LOL

I will agree that age matters somewhat, in regard to history and HOF type performances. Is that what's being argued at the end of the day? I mean, back in the day, you saw "special" players debut as early as 19-20yo. Think Blyleven. Go to 80's and think Griffey and Gooden. More recent history, think King Felix and Correa. And you can research all you want and bring up as many examples as you want. NOBODY drafts or signs a phenom, generally speaking. They HAPPEN, and they are rare.

Felix Hernandez and Gooden were destined for the HOF! Except, no they're not. But Randy Johnson struggled for a few years and then figured it out and had an amazing career and reached HOF status. On a much smaller scale, Dozier, All Star and future Twins HOF player, isn't worthy of being considered great because he didn't debut until he was about 24-25yo?. Joe Nathan was a SS before converting to being a pitcher and didn't come to the Twins and became a HOF "consideration" until age 27÷. 

All I'm saying is, a quality MLB prospect/player shouldn't always be ranked and considered just due to age. Hell, Cruz wasn't the player he became until he was about 27-28yo. And when you just accept that 2020 was a lost season for all but a few prospects, age reference becomes all that more difficult to extrapolate for future performance over the next couple of years. [Heavy sigh].

On to the good stuff:

Varland has the FB, slider, and attitude, IMO, to be something. Why do so many...and this is not directed to anyone in particular...believe he is "destined" to a BP role after 1 1/2 seasons despite his amazing 2021? Because he hasn't fully developed his 3rd pitch yet? Excuse me? How many SP have fully developed that 3rd pitch coming out of A÷? But to some, he's already a BP projection. Why? How about we see him at AA at least before we suggest his future.

Ditto for Sands. He's done nothing but advance and improve. His numbers are solid. And he, like others, may find themselves lacking a bit and end up as quality BP options going forward. And he may not have the pure velocity of someone Iike Varland, but it doesn't mean he has  bad "stuff", just maybe not superior velocity. But we all know a SP, or any pitcher, doesn't make or break their career based on velocity alone. 

BUT, pure projection on stuff I might nudge Varland ahead of Sands. But we're splitting some small hairs and I'd be willing to bet we'll see Sands up in September, if not sooner, gaining some valuable IP. 

Walner is behind AK and Larnach, no doubt. And while I don't hold age against most prospects  in general, and especially after 2020, he needs to overcome 2020 quickly and prove his 2021 and AFL production is real and RAKE at AA and get a mid season promotion. He's Rooker with better defense if he doesn't figure a few things out. I want to  be optimistic, but I also want to see more. I'd probably  drop him down a couple of spots.

Celestino wasn't ready, but was called on through desperation. It's a credit to him and his talent he didn't implode. Instead, he learned and adapted and did great at AAA. He's got all the tools to be an outstanding 4th OF and maybe more. I'm hoping he can get at least a half season of AAA to prep himself for his next promotion. 

I appreciate the consensus of Miller. I wouldn't put him this high. I am OK with him not having any tool that ranks high. I'm OK with range, a good arm, overall athleticism, pop/power ability, and solid contact.  I have this weird feeling he's Greg Gagne with a better offensive profile. And that would be awesome. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I have this weird feeling he's Greg Gagne with a better offensive profile. And that would be awesome.

"Merely" reaching Gagne's offensive level would make him an asset at SS.

[Mike Sixel]

Zero people said age is the main factor in rating. Some people said it didn't matter at all.... And got pushback. 

[gman]

I look at these prospects list and think of the 10-12 players who haven't been mentioned yet. It appears that the major league roster could have a steady stream of at least 2-3 position players per year coming in and turning the roster over. I would say the same about the rotation but you need a rotation first to have any turnover. But I still see 1-2 players a year adding to or trying to force their way into the rotation with a number winding up in the bullpen. Could be a very interesting next 3 years.

I hope it doesn't end. We've gone any number of years over the past 30 without a lot arriving from the farm system. We may even wind up with a strong Triple A for a change.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 2/11/2022 at 4:25 PM, Seth Stohs said:

I don't care about Wallner's age. As mentioned, he missed the covid year and he missed 2+ months last year with a hamate bone surgery. 

They're all individual stories and that's OK. I personally don't care if a player gets called up at 21 or 26... it matters in prospect rankings to some degree, but it's just one factor. Doesn't really matter for how much of an impact the player can have. Exceptions to every rule. 

Calling BS on this one Seth, if Varland and Wallner did what they just did at A+ at age 21, they would be WAY higher up in the rankings, also if Celestino was already 24 and hadn't turned 23 yesterday he wouldn't barely be in the top 25 prospects.

I don't really care if they get called up at 21 or 26 either if they turn out to be really good, but there has been talk on this board for two years about Kepler (trading him, not good enough, 4th outfielder, etc..) and he will be playing this year at 29. 

But if a 26 year old gets called up and plays like Larnach or gets hurt like AK, nobody has time to deal with that the other younger prospects that will be the guys getting the hype and playing time.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 2/12/2022 at 9:20 PM, ashbury said:

"Merely" reaching Gagne's offensive level would make him an asset at SS.

If he comes close to Greg Gagne he would have exceeded all expectations IMO.

Gagne has a career WAR of 26.3 and 10 years of a WAR above 1 and 8 above 2.2. 

Also to stay on the age theme, he debuted at age 21 but to be fair didn't really play until age 23.

 

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Calling BS on this one Seth, if Varland and Wallner did what they just did at A+ at age 21, they would be WAY higher up in the rankings, also if Celestino was already 24 and hadn't turned 23 yesterday he wouldn't barely be in the top 25 prospects.

 

That just illustrates that most "rankings" don't mean anything other than click bait conversation amongst us fanboys/girls.  Does it really matter where a player is ranked?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

That just illustrates that most "rankings" don't mean anything other than click bait conversation amongst us fanboys/girls.  Does it really matter where a player is ranked?

It only matters when it comes to fans perception of trades I guess. Trading a prospect ranked 25 for a relief pitcher for example, is perceived way different that a prospect ranked in the top 5.

IMO I think of prospects as possible difference makers in the MLB. a 24 year old prospect in A/AA is less likely to be a difference maker than a 21/22 year old at the same level.  With the covid year I think prospects that missed the year in the minors will tend to be a bit older for a few years, but in reality the cream always rises to the top and biggest difference makers will almost always come from the guys that make the majors at a younger age.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

That just illustrates that most "rankings" don't mean anything other than click bait conversation amongst us fanboys/girls.  Does it really matter where a player is ranked?

I'm not sure what "matters" means....but there is a huge correlation between national rankings and outcomes.

[MN_ExPat]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what "matters" means....but there is a huge correlation between national rankings and outcomes.

I am not responsible for my public school education Good Sir.

[Old fox]

On 2/11/2022 at 11:54 AM, mikelink45 said:

I can agree up to a point, but think about a career like Griffey's (I know he is exceptional).  He was traded to Cincinnati at age 30 and his career from that point on was not the HOF track that he had had in Seattle.  My point is that players who make it young provide potential for longer and more productive careers and those who come later can still be outstanding.  Hoyt Wilhelm did not begin his HOF career until he was 29 so age is not the full determinate.  

My comments refer to potential of prospects which I look at as their major league contributions.  Just some thoughts - not an argument.