Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects #11-15

[David Youngs]

With the season on the horizon, Twins Daily is highlighting its Top 20 prospects. Nash Walker outlined prospects 16-20 yesterday, Here are numbers 11-15.

A pair of stellar arms, a couple of hometown boys, and a couple of flashy gloves. The following group of Twins prospects, Twins Daily's 11-15 prospects, is pretty exciting. Take a look at some of the top names that will be playing at Target Field in just a few years. 

Big velocity. Big spin. Big strikeouts. 

Big Power. Big speed, and range. 

There is some Big potential in this group, Twins Daily's Twins prospects 11-15.  

15. RHP Louie Varland 
Age: 24
2021 (-A, +A): 18 starts, 103 IP, 2.10 ERA, 34% K, 7% BB

Arguably the most exciting pitching in the Twins farm system, Louie Varland's electric 2021 season earned him accolades as Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. A product of the Twin Cities, Varland was promoted from Low-A Fort Myers to High-A Cedar Rapids after just eight starts and emerged as the Kernels' ace. 

Varland relies heavily on a high fastball and shared that he is honing in on his off-speed pitches on Twins Spotlight with Seth Stohs. A truly dominant arm, Varland averaged 12.4 strikeouts and only 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2021. Expected to get his feet wet in Cedar Rapids, don't be surprised to see the Concordia-St. Paul alum scales the ranks of the Twins organization in 2022. 

14. RHP Cole Sands
Age: 23
2021 (AA): 18 starts, 81 IP, 2.46 ERA, 29% K, 10% BB

The 2018 fifth-round draft pick for the Twins did not disappoint in his second full season with the Twins organization. After bouncing between three levels in 2019, Cole Sands was a rock for the Wind Surge last season, posting a 4-2 record and averaging only 3.6 walks per nine innings. 

Sands isn't necessarily the high-velocity, deep-inning pitcher that fills seats; that doesn't matter, the Florida State alum gets outs. Sands keeps the ball on the ground and only gave up six homers last year and averaged 0.7 HR/9 on his sophomore campaign. Efficiency produces results; like Varland, 2022 could be a huge breakout year for Sands.

13. OF Matt Wallner
Age: 24
2021 (A+): .265/.350/.504, 14 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 9% BB, 33% K

A mid-season injury didn't stop Minnesota native Matt Wallner from having an excellent season last year. In his second full season with the Twins organization, the Southern Miss alum proved to be a  sparkplug for the Cedar Rapids Kernels. A true cleanup hitter, Wallner's power at the plate is inevitable. 

Wallner's biggest area of growth will come in plate discipline, given his 100 strikeouts in 2021. The reason that isn't talked about frequently is because of the game-changing power in his powerful right-handed swing that helped lead the Kernels to the High-A Central Championship Series. Changing those mountains and valleys to high-level plateaus will be key for the Forest Lake native to take his offense to the next level. 

12, OF Gilberto Celestino 
Age: 22
2021 (AA, AAA, MLB): .206/.274/.355, 21 2B, 9 HR, 4/5 SB, 10% BB, 22% K

It almost feels like Gilberto Celestino has been a Minnesota Twin for an eternity. Yet the talented outfielder is only 22 years old and saw MLB playing time for the first time last season after four previous seasons in the minors between the Twins and Astros organizations. The Dominican Republic native was signed by Houston at the ripe age of 17 and acquired by the Twins in 2019. The Astros clearly saw something in him to sign him so young and it appears the Twins do too. 

Celestino's stat line is bogged down by his MLB numbers. He was quite impressive with the Saints and Wind Surge in 2021, slashing .277/.371/.423 with 18 doubles and seven homers in 70 games. Time is a friend of Celestino and 2022 should provide him more of an opportunity to get his feet wet at the game's highest level. 

11. SS Noah Miller
Age: 18
2021 (Rk): .238/.316/.369, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 9% BB, 27% K

Chosen with the 38th pick of the 2021 Draft, Noah Miller is one of the top young prospects to graze Twins Territory. A stand-out hitter on both sides of the plate, Miller is as solid as it gets with his glove at shortstop. Tabbing Brandon Crawford as his favorite shortstop growing up, Miller's sleek defense was a marquee factor in the Twins using their second draft pick (Competitive Balance) on him. 

Miller had a brief chance to get his feet wet at the pro level in 2022 with 96 plate appearances in the Florida Complex League. Expect him to start at Low-A in 2022 and get ready to watch what could be one of the organization's best draft picks in recent history. Read more on Miller's high ceiling courtesy of Twins Daily's JD Cameron. 

Previous Rankings
Honorable Mention
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15 
Prospect #10: Coming Monday 

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[mikelink45]

I have to see more than press releases to put Noah at #11.  But Celestino is the player in the group I am most excited about.  We pushed him, challenged him, but luckily we did not break him.  He went back to AAA and just improved.  He is my number 11.  

I like the local boys Wallner and Varland, but both are 24 and need to break out this year to earn their rankings.   I really expect that Wallner will and I look forward to seeing them in tougher competition.  I know players break in at older ages, but the really special ones get in young.  What is their path. 

I have seen Sands name in many write ups but I do not have a good image of who he is, he just keeps moving forward and that is a really good trait.  How close is he to MLB?

[RJA]

I think Varland could really be special.  His interview with Seth was really enjoyable.  Both he and Sands are part of a really great group of young pitchers in the farm system.  Let's hope all of them stay healthy.  I agree with mikelink45 that Celestino has a lot of potential.  If he continues the quality of play that he showed at St. Paul last year, he could be a great 4th outfielder and maybe more.  One correction is that Wallner hits from the left side.  If the swing and miss in his game proves too extreme, the Twins could always make him a reliever given his pitching prowess.  Miller's future will depend how his bat develops.  He will definitely be a fun player to watch develop.  Good summaries, David.

[roger]

OK, Wallner is from Forest Lake.  I know Varland is from someplace around there also.  Is it possible they played in the same youth/american legion programs when young?

Of this group, am most excited about Miller.  Could he be the answer to the annual Twins question of who will be their shortstop?  I sure as heck hope so and he can't get to Target Field soon enough.

[jmlease1]

It's interesting to contrast this group with KLaw's Top 20. TD seems to be much higher on Wallner than KLaw, who actually suggested he go back to pitching. Be interesting to see who is right on that that one, and the reality is it's all going to depend on whether or not he can make enough contact.

Varland is a great story, but he's not just a story with that fastball. He's a legit prospect and it's going to be interesting to see how his secondary offerings progress. He's shown he has the work ethic. Looking forward to tracking his rise this year

[Doctor Gast]

I'm most excited about Miller in this group. His ability to play SS is what is important to me, his hitting will come around. That is what we really need at this critical position.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, roger said:

OK, Wallner is from Forest Lake.  I know Varland is from someplace around there also.  Is it possible they played in the same youth/american legion programs when young?

Varland is from North St. Paul. They are likely to have played travel ball against each other.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I have seen Sands name in many write ups but I do not have a good image of who he is, he just keeps moving forward and that is a really good trait.  How close is he to MLB?

He's a pitcher on the 40 man roster who will be in AAA. He's a phone call away.

[TwinsAce]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I have seen Sands name in many write ups but I do not have a good image of who he is, he just keeps moving forward and that is a really good trait.  How close is he to MLB?

Law's writeup mentioned that he improved his strikeouts and stuff, but the walk rate increased.  Law also pointed out that Sands has struggled with left-handed batters.  I added the splits below.  Even with the walk rate and left-handed batters, the stat line looks pretty good.  Hopefully he continues to excel this year despite being stuck on the 40 man roster.  If somehow the lockout doesn't last too long and he starts off hot at AAA (or AA), I could see his chance in the majors coming sooner than later.

[blindeke]

Why wouldn't Varland start at AA?

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, roger said:

OK, Wallner is from Forest Lake.  I know Varland is from someplace around there also.  Is it possible they played in the same youth/american legion programs when young?

Of this group, am most excited about Miller.  Could he be the answer to the annual Twins question of who will be their shortstop?  I sure as heck hope so and he can't get to Target Field soon enough.

Varland is from St. Paul. So, I think the answer is No, though I know they occasionally work out together in the in the offseason. 

[Seth Stohs]

My personal rankings... 

Miller: 13
Celestino: 18
Wallner: 26
Sands: 21
Varland: 19

 

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

...I like the local boys Wallner and Varland, but both are 24 and need to break out this year to earn their rankings....

 I know players break in at older ages, but the really special ones get in young...

Going to have to disagree on this one (not because you said it, but more because of a fundamental philosophical disagreement).

Age is (almost) irrelevant.  Breaking into Pro-ball and especially at the higher levels, Guys take different path into and through  professional ball.  We shouldn't discount guys who went to college or who had real life get in the way.

The only difference (provided production is similar) between a kid who makes a roster at 21/22 and one who does it at 24/25 is usually the younger one has "figured things out" at an earlier age.  Older age does not make a player any less of a "prospect". 

[mikelink45]

8 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Going to have to disagree on this one (not because you said it, but more because of a fundamental philosophical disagreement).

Age is (almost) irrelevant.  Breaking into Pro-ball and especially at the higher levels, Guys take different path into and through  professional ball.  We shouldn't discount guys who went to college or who had real life get in the way.

The only difference (provided production is similar) between a kid who makes a roster at 21/22 and one who does it at 24/25 is usually the younger one has "figured things out" at an earlier age.  Older age does not make a player any less of a "prospect". 

I can agree up to a point, but think about a career like Griffey's (I know he is exceptional).  He was traded to Cincinnati at age 30 and his career from that point on was not the HOF track that he had had in Seattle.  My point is that players who make it young provide potential for longer and more productive careers and those who come later can still be outstanding.  Hoyt Wilhelm did not begin his HOF career until he was 29 so age is not the full determinate.  

My comments refer to potential of prospects which I look at as their major league contributions.  Just some thoughts - not an argument. 

[chpettit19]

The interesting thing I'm following with all the young arms is who moves to the pen. I think 2022 will see some very creative pitcher usage, and am curious as to how all these young guys are used. Varland, Sands, Strotman, and Duran all feel like bullpen pieces to me. Which isn't a bad thing in my mind. They've all shown they can sustain for multiple innings and I'll be interested to see how they're used in 2023 and beyond as the FO tries to balance out more traditional starters/relievers and some new creative pitcher usage.

I'm not sold on Wallner and he'd be much lower on my list. The power is real, but I don't think he'll hit for enough contact to take advantage of it. With the numerous corner bats they have I think he gets pushed aside. Maybe he goes back to the mound as others have mentioned. Not a bad backup plan to have available.

Celestino was impressive at AAA and I hope he's able to use that as a springboard into taking over the 4th OF role at some point in 2022.

Miller feels like he's in the right spot to me. Real chance to stick at SS as he progresses, but no super flashy tools. Feels like a 10-15 type prospect to me. My hope for the post-lockout Twins is that they sign Story and I think it plays in well with Miller's timeline as he's not going to be ready for a number of years most likely. Story for 4 or 5 years and let Miller become part of the fold at the end of Story's deal with a natural handoff to Miller (assuming he develops. Keep drafting SSs until one makes it).

[TwinsDr2021]

53 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I can agree up to a point, but think about a career like Griffey's (I know he is exceptional).  He was traded to Cincinnati at age 30 and his career from that point on was not the HOF track that he had had in Seattle.  My point is that players who make it young provide potential for longer and more productive careers and those who come later can still be outstanding.  Hoyt Wilhelm did not begin his HOF career until he was 29 so age is not the full determinate.  

My comments refer to potential of prospects which I look at as their major league contributions.  Just some thoughts - not an argument. 

I would agree that I think of prospects as kind of the game changing players, not just guys that will make it.

For example and forgive me if I missed somebody, but looking at last years all stars and when they first played in the majors it seems pretty consistent that the best ball players start their MLB career early. There are rare cases like De Grom. Which means most of the Twins prospects need to step it up this year if they hope to be future All Stars.

Age	Players
19	2
20	10
21	10
22	18
23	14
24	14
25	6
26	4
27	2
28	1

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

Going to have to disagree on this one (not because you said it, but more because of a fundamental philosophical disagreement).

Age is (almost) irrelevant.  Breaking into Pro-ball and especially at the higher levels, Guys take different path into and through  professional ball.  We shouldn't discount guys who went to college or who had real life get in the way.

The only difference (provided production is similar) between a kid who makes a roster at 21/22 and one who does it at 24/25 is usually the younger one has "figured things out" at an earlier age.  Older age does not make a player any less of a "prospect". 

Age isn't irrelevant......Wallner was much older than his competition, and if he progresses at a normal rate won't be a contributor until he's 27 or later. It 100% makes him less of a prospect than a 19 year old playing at that level. I'm with Seth, Walner is outside the top 20 right now.

[chpettit19]

44 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would agree that I think of prospects as kind of the game changing players, not just guys that will make it.

For example and forgive me if I missed somebody, but looking at last years all stars and when they first played in the majors it seems pretty consistent that the best ball players start their MLB career early. There are rare cases like De Grom. Which means most of the Twins prospects need to step it up this year if they hope to be future All Stars.

Age	Players
19	2
20	10
21	10
22	18
23	14
24	14
25	6
26	4
27	2
28	1

 

Wonder what covid year will do to those numbers over the next 5 to 10 years or whatever. 

It is interesting to think about how we view prospects. We certainly all want everyone in the Twins top 20 to turn into All Stars, and it gets a little wonky when we start discussing these guys as just pieces to a major league team. Debut age based WAR (or stats instead of All Star appearance in general) would be an interesting look as well. There's only so many All Star spots to go around and it's even further reduced when it comes to position availability. I'd argue there's far more star players at SS than C, but you miss a bunch of those SS stars when just looking at the AS team. Interesting things to look at, though.

I think everyone can agree that the younger the better when it comes to debut years (assuming the debut is earned and not out of injury necessity or something like that). But I think age can also be overblown. For example, Adley Rutschman is pretty universally thought of as the top prospect in baseball right now and he's 24. Service time and covid have played a huge role in that. If he played for a playoff team he most certainly would've debuted already, but the O's had no reason (other than the integrity of the game, but who cares about that?) to play him on terrible teams and start his clock.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wonder what covid year will do to those numbers over the next 5 to 10 years or whatever. 

It is interesting to think about how we view prospects. We certainly all want everyone in the Twins top 20 to turn into All Stars, and it gets a little wonky when we start discussing these guys as just pieces to a major league team. Debut age based WAR (or stats instead of All Star appearance in general) would be an interesting look as well. There's only so many All Star spots to go around and it's even further reduced when it comes to position availability. I'd argue there's far more star players at SS than C, but you miss a bunch of those SS stars when just looking at the AS team. Interesting things to look at, though.

I think everyone can agree that the younger the better when it comes to debut years (assuming the debut is earned and not out of injury necessity or something like that). But I think age can also be overblown. For example, Adley Rutschman is pretty universally thought of as the top prospect in baseball right now and he's 24. Service time and covid have played a huge role in that. If he played for a playoff team he most certainly would've debuted already, but the O's had no reason (other than the integrity of the game, but who cares about that?) to play him on terrible teams and start his clock.

He's also in AAA, not A+....though, yes, he 100% should be in the majors in terms of talent.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wonder what covid year will do to those numbers over the next 5 to 10 years or whatever. 

 

I would tend to agree with Covid the ages might creep up, but in most cases guys that are future All Star types will still see the majors at a fairly young age at least on the offense side of things. I think where we will really see the difference is in the pitchers based on how careful teams are with them. And the idea there is no need to bring a 22 year old up when you can stretch him out in the minors a year or two and control that pitcher though his late 20's.I can see lower Revenue teams to doing that so they never really have to pay the big dollars for pitchers. Cleveland for example has kind of been doing that, it might not be intentional but Clevinger, Plesac, Civale, Morgan, Plutko, and Kluber  are examples.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's also in AAA, not A+....though, yes, he 100% should be in the majors in terms of talent.

I wasn't comparing him to anyone or saying we should view the Twins prospects in this post the same way. Simply an example of age not meaning as much as we sometimes think. Spencer Torkelson is turning 23 this season and I don't think anyone is concerned about his age either. That's why I brought up the covid year. They were both effected by that.

I think the bigger thing is how you view the guys we're talking about in this specific post and range of prospects. We're not talking about the top 5 prospects in the system we're talking about 11-15. They're guys you hope make the majors and can provide some sort of productive performance. Or if they're young like Miller you hope they work their way up the rankings. Nobody is building a team around the idea that their #11-15 prospects are their core and will be all stars. If your "excitement" (for lack of better word) about any of the guys on this list is based on them being a future all star you'd obviously be very disappointed. That's not who we're looking at here. Especially with the older guys.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wasn't comparing him to anyone or saying we should view the Twins prospects in this post the same way. Simply an example of age not meaning as much as we sometimes think. Spencer Torkelson is turning 23 this season and I don't think anyone is concerned about his age either. That's why I brought up the covid year. They were both effected by that.

I think the bigger thing is how you view the guys we're talking about in this specific post and range of prospects. We're not talking about the top 5 prospects in the system we're talking about 11-15. They're guys you hope make the majors and can provide some sort of productive performance. Or if they're young like Miller you hope they work their way up the rankings. Nobody is building a team around the idea that their #11-15 prospects are their core and will be all stars. If your "excitement" (for lack of better word) about any of the guys on this list is based on them being a future all star you'd obviously be very disappointed. That's not who we're looking at here. Especially with the older guys.

My opinion has nothing to do with "future all star" or not......But 24 year olds that strike out 100 times in A+ probably aren't even future regulars, not in a meaningful way. They can be, but how likely is it, really? I hope I'm wrong. I hope he's great. But I can't see how anyone can look at the age/stats and say he's more likely to contribute to a MLB team than Strotman or some others.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would tend to agree with Covid the ages might creep up, but in most cases guys that are future All Star types will still see the majors at a fairly young age at least on the offense side of things. I think where we will really see the difference is in the pitchers based on how careful teams are with them. And the idea there is no need to bring a 22 year old up when you can stretch him out in the minors a year or two and control that pitcher though his late 20's.I can see lower Revenue teams to doing that so they never really have to pay the big dollars for pitchers. Cleveland for example has kind of been doing that, it might not be intentional but Clevinger, Plesac, Civale, Morgan, Plutko, and Kluber  are examples.

For sure. The true stars of the game tend to make themselves known early in the minors and burst onto the scene quick. I'm by no means arguing that age means nothing, but Torkelson and Rutschman are big time prospects that people expect to be elite players and one turns 23 this season and the other is already 24. I think those are 2 great examples of the covid year playing a role. I'd love to see the Twins turn some of their recent international signings into young stars. The trick is balancing the high risk, high reward with the more "sure thing" guys. The Twins have tried to recently, but the high reward guys haven't looked good recently (I have hopes for Lewis this year, though). And I agree much of this is more on the position player side than pitchers. I'm not concerned about the age of any of our arms. They're a different kind of beast.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure. The true stars of the game tend to make themselves known early in the minors and burst onto the seen quick. I'm by no means arguing that age means nothing, but Torkelson and Rutschman are big time prospects that people expect to be elite players and one turns 23 this season and the other is already 24. I think those are 2 great examples of the covid year playing a role. I'd love to see the Twins turn some of their recent international signings into young stars. The trick is balancing the high risk, high reward with the more "sure thing" guys. The Twins have tried to recently, but the high reward guys haven't looked good recently (I have hopes for Lewis this year, though). And I agree much of this is more on the position player side than pitchers. I'm not concerned about the age of any of our arms. They're a different kind of beast.

Concur.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

My opinion has nothing to do with "future all star" or not......But 24 year olds that strike out 100 times in A+ probably aren't even future regulars, not in a meaningful way. They can be, but how likely is it, really? I hope I'm wrong. I hope he's great. But I can't see how anyone can look at the age/stats and say he's more likely to contribute to a MLB team than Strotman or some others.

I'm not a Wallner believer so I don't disagree with your stance on him. But there are a lot more factors that go into these things. And to me its more about us currently looking at prospects #11-15. Top 5 system prospects fail more than they succeed so #11-15 should really not be expected to do much. If anyone on this list (Miller excluded as he was just drafted out of high school) becomes a legit ML contributor to a contender we should be very impressed.

Celestino as a 4th OFer would be a very nice result. Sands and Louie turning into solid relievers would be a win. But there's just so many factors. Louie was drafted in the 15th round in 2019 out of the same college where I played, and I'm no major leaguer. Him even being mentioned as a possible major leaguer is a win already. He was drafted, missed the entire covid year and saw himself rocket into prospect rankings in his first professional year. I don't care if he's 35, that's a good enough track record to get him to #15 in a system for me.

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure. The true stars of the game tend to make themselves known early in the minors and burst onto the seen quick. I'm by no means arguing that age means nothing, but Torkelson and Rutschman are big time prospects that people expect to be elite players and one turns 23 this season and the other is already 24.

Not disagreeing with you but Torkelson might not be the best example, he was drafted in 2020, played basically all of 21 as a 21 year old and played at A+, AA, and AAA, and won't turn 23 until August, so unless Detroit is playing a service game he should see the majors at age 22.

Rutschman I believe was affected by Covid and if not for that would more than likely have been in the majors last year as a 23 year old (since his birthday was a week ago). Matt Wallner was drafted in the same draft and hasn't played above A+.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not disagreeing with you but Torkelson might not be the best example, he was drafted in 2020, played basically all of 21 as a 21 year old and played at A+, AA, and AAA, and won't turn 23 until August, so unless Detroit is playing a service game he should see the majors at age 22.

Rutschman I believe was affected by Covid and if not for that would more than likely have been in the majors last year as a 23 year old (since his birthday was a week ago). Matt Wallner was drafted in the same draft and hasn't played above A+.

But if we're talking ages then their draft year doesn't really matter, right? So Torkelson will debut at 22. If Royce Lewis debuts before June he'd debut at the same age, but people view him very differently since he was drafted well before Spencer. Time in the minors vs age are 2 very different things to me. That's why age isn't that huge to me. And that's why I keep saying there are far more variables and rankings are more complex.

And the Rutschman vs Wallner comparison was one I was never trying to make. The Rutschman example was simply a response to the idea that the age of a prospect is uber important. Wallner is not the same kind of prospect. Never was. That's a comparison of the #1 prospect in baseball who was drafted 1.1 vs the guy TD ranks #13 in the Twins system. The expectations for them are very different. That's why I keep bringing up the fact that we're talking about the #11-15 prospects in the Twins system. These rankings are literally saying the TD writers don't have great hope in Wallner. They're saying they'll be happy if he makes the majors and has any sort of positive impact at all.

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I can agree up to a point, but think about a career like Griffey's (I know he is exceptional).  He was traded to Cincinnati at age 30 and his career from that point on was not the HOF track that he had had in Seattle.  My point is that players who make it young provide potential for longer and more productive careers and those who come later can still be outstanding.  Hoyt Wilhelm did not begin his HOF career until he was 29 so age is not the full determinate.  

My comments refer to potential of prospects which I look at as their major league contributions.  Just some thoughts - not an argument. 

Very true Sir, and not necessarily an argument on my part. You do make a valid point. 

[MN_ExPat]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would agree that I think of prospects as kind of the game changing players, not just guys that will make it.

For example and forgive me if I missed somebody, but looking at last years all stars and when they first played in the majors it seems pretty consistent that the best ball players start their MLB career early. There are rare cases like De Grom. Which means most of the Twins prospects need to step it up this year if they hope to be future All Stars.

Age	Players
19	2
20	10
21	10
22	18
23	14
24	14
25	6
26	4
27	2
28	1

 

Fair point ??.  

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But if we're talking ages then their draft year doesn't really matter, right? So Torkelson will debut at 22. If Royce Lewis debuts before June he'd debut at the same age, but people view him very differently since he was drafted well before Spencer. Time in the minors vs age are 2 very different things to me. That's why age isn't that huge to me. And that's why I keep saying there are far more variables and rankings are more complex.

I think the big difference between Lewis and Torkelson, is that Torkelson has played one year in them minors at three levels, hit 30 homers and had a .935 OPS. Lewis hasn't been played in two years, and the expectation of the two are way different going into this year. I would expect Torkelson should contribute in the majors, and IMO Lewis shouldn't be expected to even play in the majors this year. (hopefully he can exceed those expectations and prove people wrong) But that is the reason Torkelson is a top 10 prospects and Lewis is barely in the top 100.

IMO age is a huge difference, but Lewis isn't a good example, because he is still young, He can still make the majors by 23, even if it is the start of 2023.

have a good weekend.