One Final Remnant of the Johan Santana Trade

[Cody Christie]

Johan Santana’s trade from the Twins to the Mets will be memorable for many reasons. Now, one final player from that trade is still making his mark at the big-league level.

Bill Smith was in a no-win situation. After taking the reins as the Twins GM, Torii Hunter left via free agency, and he faced trading away baseball’s best pitcher. Rumors swirled about potential prospect packages from the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. Eventually, the Twins settled on a package that included Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, and Philip Humber.

Gomez had the longest Twins career, but the club traded him to Milwaukee, where he made back-to-back All-Star appearances. He played his final game in 2019. Humber pitched just over 20 innings in Minnesota, but his most significant mark on baseball was pitching the 21st perfect game in MLB history. His final big-league pitch came in 2013. Mulvey pitched fewer than 30 big-league innings and only appeared in two Twins games. He is about to start his sixth season as the head coach at Villanova. That leaves one man standing.

Like many pitching prospects, Guerra didn’t follow a linear development path. He pitched his first two professional seasons in the Mets organization, where they were aggressive with his level. Baseball America ranked him as baseball’s 35th best prospect at the time of the trade, while Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 79th. Of course, he had yet to throw an inning above High-A, but evaluators considered him one of the game’s best pitching prospects. 

Guerra pitched seven seasons in the Twins organization but never got the call to the big league level. He switched to a bullpen role in 2011 after posting an ERA north of 6.00 during the 2010 season. His strikeout numbers improved with the switch, but he still allowed too many runs and gave up too much hard contact. Following the 2013 season, he left the Twins organization and went on quite the professional journey.  

Pittsburgh signed him for 2015, and he made his big-league debut. Unfortunately, he allowed five home runs in 16 2/3 innings, but he struck out more than a batter per inning. The following winter, he re-signed with the Pirates on December 7, and three days later, the Angels selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. Los Angeles had to keep him on the big-league roster for the 2016 season, and he got his first extended look in his age-27 season. In 53 1/3 innings, he compiled a 3.21 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 36-to-7 strikeout to walk ratio. 

From 2017 to 2020, he bounced around from Los Angeles to Texas to Milwaukee to Philadelphia. During those stops, he made 29 appearances and had a 6.55 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. He had posted some substantial numbers in the high levels of the minors, but those numbers weren’t translating to the big-league level. Entering his age-32 season, it looked like his career might be coming to a close. 

Oakland gave Guerra one last chance, and he slid into their bullpen for the entire 2021 season. He posted a 4.11 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP across 65 2/3 innings. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story as he ranked in the 85th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, hard-hit %, wxOBA, xERA, and xBA. Even without eye-popping strikeout numbers, batters cannot make solid contact against his offspeed offerings. In fact, only his four-seam fastball allowed a batting average over .245 and a slugging percentage over .392. He uses five pitches out of the bullpen, which is a rarity in today’s game. 

Oakland kept Guerra on their 40-man roster this winter, so it looks like he may be part of the team’s plans for the 2022 campaign. Either way, his journey to this point in his career is one of determination and resilience. He’s the last piece of the Johan Santana trade, and he still has something to prove. 

What do you remember about the Santana trade? Did you think players tied to the trade would still be playing? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[USAFChief]

I most remember not getting Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. Everyone at BYTO was in agreement we should have!

[gunnarthor]

The big rumor I remember was that the Yankees weren't going to include Phil Hughes (a top 10 prospect, IIRC) for Santana and the Red Sox wouldn't include Elsbury or Bucholtz. It seemed like both teams were fine not getting Santana so long as the other team didn't.

I still think Humber was the victim of college coaching and, had his arm problems not happened, would have been a good ML pitcher. But there are a ton of pitchers whose careers fell apart because of injury.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I most remember not getting Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. Everyone at BYTO was in agreement we should have!

I do not remember that trade rumor at the time.  If it was an offer, Smith really missed out on that one.  I do remember when we made the Mets trade people were upset a different OF was not included over Gomez, that guy never did anything at MLB level so at least that was right call.  Overall all the rumors I remember none would have ended up being amazing, unless the Dodger one you say was actually an offer. 

[mk]

The Mets OF was Fernando Martinez I think. The Mets didn't want to include him as he was being compared to a young Ted Williams.

[se7799]

I thought I remembered either Elsbury or Buckoltz.  Was hoping to get one of those.  I definitely do not remember the Dodgers offer as listed above.  But definitely goes to show us prospects are just that...prospects.

[Rosterman]

Yeah, Fernando Martinez instead of Gomez. Martinez did nothing, ended up being claimed on waivers by the Astros. The Twins also wanted Mike Pelfrey instead of Humber.

 

Over in Boston Land, the Twins wanted Ellsbury and Jon Lester. Red Sox wouldn't give both. Countered with Coco Crisp. Then Bucholtz got added into the offer instead of Lester. Also as part of the package would've been infielder Jed Lowrie, and pitcher Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden.

 

The Twins wanted Hughes and the Yankees were willing to add Melky Cabrera. But the Twins wanted more, asking for Ian Kennedy or another top prospect (Alan  Horne or maybe Alan Jackson). Joba Chamberlain was also a mention. 

 

It was thought that the Yankees and Red Sox were going to outduel each other for the pitcher, but it also came down to money...did they want to add a $20 million a year arm to their alredy high payrolls.

 

Here's an interesting look after-the-fact. 

 https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15979/baseball-proguestus-lose-lose-situation-revisiting-the-johan-santana-trade/

The Dodgers didn't thinbk they could pull it off, what with contract and DID Santana want to go West Coast.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-thoughts/post/_/id/1632/why-johan-santana-isnt-a-dodger

 

And then later, there was talk of another Santana blockbuster deal as he wound-down his tenure in Mets-land.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/615792-mlb-trade-rumors-10-johan-santana-deals-that-make-sense-when-he-is-healthy

 

 

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I most remember not getting Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, and Matt Kemp from the Dodgers. Everyone at BYTO was in agreement we should have!

Mostly I remember the Dodgers not being in agreement with that.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Mostly I remember the Dodgers not being in agreement with that.

 

[Greglw3]

16 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Yeah, Fernando Martinez instead of Gomez. Martinez did nothing, ended up being claimed on waivers by the Astros. The Twins also wanted Mike Pelfrey instead of Humber.

 

Over in Boston Land, the Twins wanted Ellsbury and Jon Lester. Red Sox wouldn't give both. Countered with Coco Crisp. Then Bucholtz got added into the offer instead of Lester. Also as part of the package would've been infielder Jed Lowrie, and pitcher Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden.

 

The Twins wanted Hughes and the Yankees were willing to add Melky Cabrera. But the Twins wanted more, asking for Ian Kennedy or another top prospect (Alan  Horne or maybe Alan Jackson). Joba Chamberlain was also a mention. 

 

It was thought that the Yankees and Red Sox were going to outduel each other for the pitcher, but it also came down to money...did they want to add a $20 million a year arm to their alredy high payrolls.

 

Here's an interesting look after-the-fact. 

 https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/15979/baseball-proguestus-lose-lose-situation-revisiting-the-johan-santana-trade/

The Dodgers didn't thinbk they could pull it off, what with contract and DID Santana want to go West Coast.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-thoughts/post/_/id/1632/why-johan-santana-isnt-a-dodger

 

And then later, there was talk of another Santana blockbuster deal as he wound-down his tenure in Mets-land.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/615792-mlb-trade-rumors-10-johan-santana-deals-that-make-sense-when-he-is-healthy

 

 

I remember it being an awful and depressing trade. From the Twins perspective, with what they got from the players received, they got nothing. I remember that the Twins at the time offered him $20M a year for 3 years, which was a huge salary ten, especially for the Twins but there is always a bigger market team able to give more years. I, perhaps naively, felt that Santana could have shown loyalty to the Twins for $60,000,000! I also remember the Twins offering the exact average annual salary for Hunter at 15M for 3 yrs as the Angels but the Halos went 5 years. Again, just my feeling, but I think Torii could  have shown loyalty and appreciation for all they had done for him for 15M a year. It’s not unprecedented for a player to take a bit less money to play for a team and a situation he loves. I thought Santana and Hunter might have felt that way as the Twins really did a lot to make them stars including Johan’s being on the receiving end of the Twins belief in him in the rule 5 draft. In summary both were painful, almost Griffith-esque.

[big dog]

Fernando Martinez was a young Ted Williams...the 9-year-old version.

Go-go was a lot of fun. Milwaukee finally got a good outfielder, but they had to wait a bit for it. OPS+ his first two years were 76 and 82, then a 101 and a couple of really good years after those.

[Devilsadvocate]

My favorite Deolis Guerra memory: I used to play Derek Jeter All Star Baseball 2003 for PlayStation 2, I played all 162 games of each season to the 2008 off season and always wanted my rosters to be accurate, so I traded Santana to the Mets for 4 no-name prospects and spent the time editing their names, height, weight, ratings, etc. 

Obviously I edited Guerra to have 90+ potential, and he was the anchor of my rotation for another few seasons until I finally switched to MVP Baseball because the graphics were SO much better. 

Dude was always around 230+ innings with an ERA in the mid 2's for my teams. Really wished that could have come to fruition for our Twins!!

[Jham]

4 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I remember it being an awful and depressing trade. From the Twins perspective, with what they got from the players received, they got nothing. I remember that the Twins at the time offered him $20M a year for 3 years, which was a huge salary ten, especially for the Twins but there is always a bigger market team able to give more years. I, perhaps naively, felt that Santana could have shown loyalty to the Twins for $60,000,000! I also remember the Twins offering the exact average annual salary for Hunter at 15M for 3 yrs as the Angels but the Halos went 5 years. Again, just my feeling, but I think Torii could  have shown loyalty and appreciation for all they had done for him for 15M a year. It’s not unprecedented for a player to take a bit less money to play for a team and a situation he loves. I thought Santana and Hunter might have felt that way as the Twins really did a lot to make them stars including Johan’s being on the receiving end of the Twins belief in him in the rule 5 draft. In summary both were painful, almost Griffith-esque.

I think there's a hidden cost to trading away talent, letting guys walk, and not signing free agents: your roster gets restless and doesn't feel loyal. The Luis Castillo trade away changed the mentality of that core and lead to Terry Ryan retiring. Hunter approached the Twins about an extension. The twins made a big deal about not negotiating contacts in season. Along with their reputation for being cheap... It's not like the Twins made a great case for player loyalty at that time.