Are the Twins an unattractive destination for FAs?

[Johnny Ringo]

If one wanted to view this question dispassionately and not through the lens of fandom, they would conclude that Minnesota is a bottom 10, perhaps even a bottom 5 destination for free agents. Bad weather, bad taxes, a track record of dealing players when they approach market rates and 30 years of playoff irrelevancy are all negatives individually and collectively they cast an ominous repellent. Minnesota can only compete where they flatly outspend the field (Donaldson, Cruz). That's why judging the front office is so difficult. In team construction, they can't think in terms of who they want but who they can get. Did they inherit this problem? Yes. Did they perpetuate it. Yes. So the analysis of that conundrum and its attribution really is central in evaluating Falvey and Levine. 

[Mike Sixel]

13 hours ago, Ryan_K said:

I don't think it's attractive. A winning team plays April through October here. April till Mid May are not fun and mid September on is cold by evening. It has high taxes. While the summers are nice most weeks they are playing night games 6 days a weeks, so not a ton of time to enjoy a lake.

 

I think the organization is fine to good, a big focus is on culture, but if you can get good culture, plus warm weather and low taxes it's an easy choice.

My prediction within 5 years Miami will be a FA destination given the money moving into Florida

NY has higher taxes, and the sameish weather. And Boston. And Chicago. And Detroit. 

FAs don't sign here because generally the TWins don't offer nearly the money or years other teams do.

Yes, there are players that go to a city because they want to go to that city. But they don't give up five to twenty to fifty million to do so.......

Also, again, taxes are paid based on where the games are played, so we are talking about half the games in MN vs FL or TX. I mean, if it is taxes why doesn't every player sign with Miami or Tampa? Does no one go to Tampa because of something other than money? Because they win. And they have no taxes......

[MABB1959]

I am going to say most want to go to a team with a chance to contend for a WS.  Not just win the division only to be knocked right out.  Weather may be a factor if they plan on living her fulltime and finally TAXES

[Johnny Ringo]

 

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

NY has higher taxes, and the sameish weather. And Boston. And Chicago. And Detroit. 

FAs don't sign here because generally the TWins don't offer nearly the money or years other teams do.

Yes, there are players that go to a city because they want to go to that city. But they don't give up five to twenty to fifty million to do so.......

Also, again, taxes are paid based on where the games are played, so we are talking about half the games in MN vs FL or TX. I mean, if it is taxes why doesn't every player sign with Miami or Tampa? Does no one go to Tampa because of something other than money? Because they win. And they have no taxes......

On a $150mm contract playing in MN costs a FA $7.5 mm versus Florida, Seattle or Texas. That is 150 times a 10% marginal tax rate divided by half the games. That assumes marginal tax rates are steady throughout the contract which may be a gutsy call.  The DFL wants them higher. It is a freckle more expensive tax-wise in NY versus MN.

The FA can also earn substantial endorsement monies on a state income free basis which can be worth a great deal more. It ain't, as they say, nothing. 

Having lived in both, NY does not have sameish weather to Minnesota. Like many Midwestern held beliefs about New York, that is simply not true.   

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

NY has higher taxes, and the sameish weather. And Boston. And Chicago. And Detroit. 

FAs don't sign here because generally the TWins don't offer nearly the money or years other teams do.

Yes, there are players that go to a city because they want to go to that city. But they don't give up five to twenty to fifty million to do so.......

Also, again, taxes are paid based on where the games are played, so we are talking about half the games in MN vs FL or TX. I mean, if it is taxes why doesn't every player sign with Miami or Tampa? Does no one go to Tampa because of something other than money? Because they win. And they have no taxes......

The number 1 factor is money and years.

But for the twins to offer 10 million a year to somebody and Tampa offers 10 million. The player is taking about 487500 less. (I know it is a hair less than that)  (Salary/2 * 9.75%) So for the twins to compete with no tax states evenly their offer has to be higher.  Now if the players family isn't really interested in relocating to MN, because of weather, family, or whatever reason. The Twins also have to up their offer because it is going to cost the player more to have two places and be flying family back and forth.

Now if there aren't other teams also interested in that player, the Twins don't have to take that into consideration, they can offer a take it or leave it type contract.

But if you have a few teams interested in that player and one team happens to be close to where that player grew up (of wife grew up) and another is a no tax state, the twins have to take that into consideration when offering a contract. They can't just match the other teams contract and believe they offered the same (I mean they can but they would be wrong).

[Rosterman]

I'm curious to see how Joe Mauer does on the Hall of Fame ballot. And, if not elected on the first ballot, then question what he chances would've been if he had played anywhere otehr than Minnesota.

 

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

 

On a $150mm contract playing in MN costs a FA $7.5 mm versus Florida, Seattle or Texas. That is 150 times a 10% marginal tax rate divided by half the games. That assumes marginal tax rates are steady throughout the contract which may be a gutsy call.  The DFL wants them higher. It is a freckle more expensive tax-wise in NY versus MN.

The FA can also earn substantial endorsement monies on a state income free basis which can be worth a great deal more. It ain't, as they say, nothing. 

Having lived in both, NY does not have sameish weather to Minnesota. Like many Midwestern held beliefs about New York, that is simply not true.   

I looked at the last few October series..... Which is nearly identical in weather. We need to compare the season, not winter. 

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The number 1 factor is money and years.

But for the twins to offer 10 million a year to somebody and Tampa offers 10 million. The player is taking about 487500 less. (I know it is a hair less than that)  (Salary/2 * 9.75%) So for the twins to compete with no tax states evenly their offer has to be higher.  Now if the players family isn't really interested in relocating to MN, because of weather, family, or whatever reason. The Twins also have to up their offer because it is going to cost the player more to have two places and be flying family back and forth.

Now if there aren't other teams also interested in that player, the Twins don't have to take that into consideration, they can offer a take it or leave it type contract.

But if you have a few teams interested in that player and one team happens to be close to where that player grew up (of wife grew up) and another is a no tax state, the twins have to take that into consideration when offering a contract. They can't just match the other teams contract and believe they offered the same (I mean they can but they would be wrong).

It's almost like you missed the point. Free agents don't sign in Tampa.... despite better weather, lower taxes, and a winning team nearly every year..... Why is that?

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's almost like you missed the point. Free agents don't sign in Tampa.... despite better weather, lower taxes, and a winning team nearly every year..... Why is that?

Because of the first line I wrote - The number 1 factor is money and years.

Tampa isn't going to compete against other teams for big name free agents, because they can't or won't spend that kind of money, so weather and taxes rarely if ever play a part, The Twins on the other hand were supposedly trying for guys like Wheeler and Darvish so to get them they probably are going to have to offer more than some other teams. 

Charlie Morton signed a two year 30 million contract and Franco signed for 200 mililon, because of money and years.

[bean5302]

On 2/9/2022 at 6:47 AM, cHawk said:

Didn’t he want to go to Philly, though? I can’t remember the reason exactly but I do remember he had Philly in mind.

Wheeler said he declined the White Sox's offer because he preferred to stay on the East coast. Nothing about Philly in specific to my recollection. The difference reported was $118MM in Philly vs. $120MM in Chicaco. The offers were essentially the same.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

...Like many Midwestern held beliefs about New York, that is simply not true...

My, isn't that rich? I worked with a corporate office close to NYC with executives in NYC. Urban New Yorker's perceptions of anything outside the NE and California is truly epic to behold. I was asked, literally, if we still had "Indians" out here and by somebody else about polar bears. These were educated, masters degree holding corporate employees.

It goes both ways.

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, baul0010 said:

What's the draw then?  The below market rate deals we love handing out?

Didn't say there was a draw.  Just said weather shouldn't have to be an issue.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

A lot of them have kids by the time they reach free agency.  How would your wife feel about moving the kids during the school year every year.  Do you suppose they would prefer to buy and live in a single home for the term of their contract or move every year during the term of their contract.  Of course, they could buy two homes but they still have to move a fair amount of stuff and uproot their kids.

A lot of players do just that.  Wife and kids spend the summer with Dad.  Ball players move all the time.  Lots of them maintain a home somewhere other than where they play so they always have a place to call home regardless of getting traded, release, sent to the minors, etc.

[Major League Ready]

Why doesn't Miami sign big name free agents?   Huge media market  Endorsement opportunities.  Great tax benefits.  

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

A lot of players do just that.  Wife and kids spend the summer with Dad.  Ball players move all the time.  Lots of them maintain a home somewhere other than where they play so they always have a place to call home regardless of getting traded, release, sent to the minors, etc.

Granted, it's done.  Just saying ... would you prefer to go home to your family after home games.  Would you prefer to see your kids.  Do you think their wives prefer to live in separate homes.  The decision is a product of several factors.  This is one that is not favorable to most FAs. 

[Unwinder]

I'm 35, and I know dozens of people my age or younger who have moved to Minnesota from other states because they heard good things, or because they saw an opportunity here that they liked. Baseball players are in a higher tax bracket than anyone I know, which makes a big difference, but I just don't think that guys in that stage of life weigh that too much when they're looking for a place to live. I can think of only two people I know under the age of forty who I've ever heard even mention Minnesota's taxes, and I don't think it's a coincidence that they also happen to be the two most conservative guys I know.

[Twins33]

Money is and always will be the biggest factor.
 

They also haven’t won one playoff game in the last 18 years. If I were a ballplayer that would be another big factor in why I would not sign (wouldn’t go to the Mariners for similar reason). I don’t know how many players think this way but I’m pretty sure it’s more than zero. 
 

Then when they are good, they don’t ever go for it because they are worried about future seasons of competing. As we’ve seen, the not going for it has lead to division titles and no playoff wins or just being bad (2021).  I like winning and making the playoffs better than not doing those things but at some point they need to go for it and they haven’t done that in the last 20 years either. Players see that. Johan criticized them for it and nothing has changed since then. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why doesn't Miami sign big name free agents?   Huge media market  Endorsement opportunities.  Great tax benefits.  

Are they trying? Comparing teams that aren't trying to sign guys to "larger" contracts to teams that supposedly are trying, isn't much argument. IMO if Miami decides they want to get involved in signing players to "large" contracts they won't have a problem getting them to sign there.

 

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

but I just don't think that guys in that stage of life weigh that too much when they're looking for a place to live.

Mauer established residency in Florida just to sign his first bonus, and if I am remembering correctly quite a few players do that.

In the last 4 years I know about dozen families that have moved out of MN for Florida, Texas and Tennessee and not all of them are conservatives.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are they trying? Comparing teams that aren't trying to sign guys to "larger" contracts to teams that supposedly are trying, isn't much argument. IMO if Miami decides they want to get involved in signing players to "large" contracts they won't have a problem getting them to sign there.

 

Mauer established residency in Florida just to sign his first bonus, and if I am remembering correctly quite a few players do that.

In the last 4 years I know about dozen families that have moved out of MN for Florida, Texas and Tennessee and not all of them are conservatives.

I think you are really close to an epiphany in the first part of your reply....

More people are moving to Minnesota than out of it.... The data is freely available online. 

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think you are really close to an epiphany in the first part of your reply....

More people are moving to Minnesota than out of it.... The data is freely available online. 

Have I been unclear that it is about money and length, until things are even, then other things come into play?

 

Since a peak in 2007, Minnesota has seen its rate of natural population growth — births minus deaths — steadily decline even before COVID-19 hit. And it's had a net population loss due to domestic migration in all but three of the past 21 years.Dec 21, 2021

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Have I been unclear that it is about money and length, until things are even, then other things come into play?

 

Since a peak in 2007, Minnesota has seen its rate of natural population growth — births minus deaths — steadily decline even before COVID-19 hit. And it's had a net population loss due to domestic migration in all but three of the past 21 years.Dec 21, 2021

thank you for correcting me on migration. I had read that last year more moved to MN than out of, but clearly (if true), that is an outlier. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are they trying? Comparing teams that aren't trying to sign guys to "larger" contracts to teams that supposedly are trying, isn't much argument. IMO if Miami decides they want to get involved in signing players to "large" contracts they won't have a problem getting them to sign there.

If it's such a great idea ... why wouldn't they?  They don't sign them for the same reason Milwaukee or Cleveland does not.  Spending that big a percentage of payroll on one player is a bad idea.  

[KFEY93]

On 2/7/2022 at 12:49 PM, Thegrin said:

It has always surprised me that free agent pitchers do not flock to Minnesota so that they can pitch in Target Field.  Now that Buxton is signed, we can promise them an outfield that will 'go get em'.  

Now that Buxton can play his annual 10-20 games a season. Really inspires pitchers confidence im sure. 

[TwinsDr2021]

21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

If it's such a great idea ... why wouldn't they?  They don't sign them for the same reason Milwaukee or Cleveland does not.  Spending that big a percentage of payroll on one player is a bad idea.  

Completely off topic, the topic is Are the Twins an unattractive destination for FAs?.

[old nurse]

On 2/8/2022 at 9:54 PM, TheLeviathan said:

It would seem to me that if you can provide hundreds or thousands of examples of this, that so far in this discussion you are still several hundreds or thousands short of that.  Let me suggest that there may be a reason for that you're ignoring on the basis of your bias.

Allow me to quote Dave St. Peter: "It's dollars and years"

Any player that has resigned with their club and foregone free agency. Probably hundreds through the years. You changed the other person’s narrative to thousands. In 40 years of free agency how many elite free agents have there been? To demand thousands is a lot bit off.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, KFEY93 said:

Now that Buxton can play his annual 10-20 games a season. Really inspires pitchers confidence im sure. 

A typical starting pitcher only starts 25 games a season so what’s the problem?

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Any player that has resigned with their club and foregone free agency. Probably hundreds through the years. You changed the other person’s narrative to thousands. In 40 years of free agency how many elite free agents have there been? To demand thousands is a lot bit off.

Um..... it literally says in the part I quoted "thousands".  So......no, I changed nothing.

Players you cite as staying with their team and foregoing free agency are doing so because they don't want to risk free agency not being as lucrative as the offer on the table. It's still about dollars and years there's just a risk analysis going on.

[cHawk]

@TwinsDr2021 @Major League Ready enough. Please return to the topic at hand.

[MABB1959]

As a kid you dream of making the MLB, part of that dream is playing in a WS or at the very least the League Championship.  Would you really want to play for a team that will probably never get there or is mostly uncompetitive?  We rarely even re-sign our talent let along sign more.  Rosario got his dream last year and it was exciting to watch imagine what that felt like.  I was 100% shocked that Buxton wants to spend the prime of his career with a team like this, especially after what they pulled with his playing time.  I would love to find out how many players have the Twins in their no trade clause.  The Twins are truly a team that cannot develop their players and IF they do rarely keep them.  We have been waiting for a Berrio's caliber pitcher since Johan Santana who left 15 years ago.  We have had a few good closers but they play one inning and it is only exciting when they are in a tight meaningful game.  I don't count winning the Division (especially the Central) as successful if they can't even win ONE playoff game.  It is more depressing than it is worth.  It has to be well known in the entire league that this team is a dumpster diving team.  Our prospects take WAY to long to get here.  

[KFEY93]

16 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

A typical starting pitcher only starts 25 games a season so what’s the problem?

I hope you're being sarcastic.