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What Happens if the MLB Season Gets Delayed?


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With negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA remaining gridlocked as we progress into February, a delay of spring training is all but inevitable and a delayed start to the regular season feels increasingly likely.

What would that mean for the Minnesota Twins and their schedule?

The Twins are scheduled to open their season on March 31st in Chicago, against a White Sox team they hope to challenge for the division crown. In fact, the Twins are slated to face Chicago six times in their first 22 games, a series of showdowns that could prove pivotal in setting the tone for this year's AL Central race.

Will those games even happen?

Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote over the weekend that the start of the MLB season is in jeopardy, which comes as news to nobody who has been paying attention. 

The latest developments in this ongoing saga saw Major League Baseball request a federal mediator to assist and accelerate stalling talks (which, to be clear are stalling because of them). The union rejected this step on the grounds that an outside entity can't be expected to spur a fair compromise when the existing precedent is fundamentally lopsided and unfair. 

Alas, we're going nowhere fast. The scheduled Opening Day in Chicago is a mere 52 days away. 

An article from Mike Axisa at CBS Sports estimates deadlines for various scenarios to play out, and here's where he landed: 

  • February 1st: Full spring training. We're past this point. There's no chance pitchers and catchers are reporting in 10 days.
  • February 7th: Full exhibition schedule. Cactus and Grapefruit League games are scheduled to begin on February 26th. Accounting for reporting logistics, COVID intake testing, and team workouts, Axisa sees Monday as "the latest possible date for an agreement that does not sacrifice spring training games." So we're basically past that too.
  • March 1st: Opening Day. "This is the first true drop dead date. Beyond March 1, there's basically no way MLB and the MLBPA could reach an agreement in time to avoid disrupting the regular season, when paychecks are on the line." A mere three weeks away.
  • March 15th: Delayed Opening Day. Even if the season doesn't start as scheduled, there is still a possibility of getting in a full 162 games, by starting late and extending the end of the season. Axisa believes that once we get past mid-March, it'll be nigh impossible not to lose games.
  • May 1st: 100-game season. Now we start reaching various scenarios for truncated seasons. Axisa uses this as an example because it's a round number but there are many different possibilities, all based on when the league and union can reach an agreement. Axisa figures it'll take about five weeks (two to finish the offseason, three to get through an expedited spring training) from the completion of a deal to the start of a season.

In the article, he also touches on some grimmer outcomes, like a season starting at the All-Star break or getting wiped out entirely. But what I'm interested in exploring is those partial season scenarios that still get a bulk of the games in.

What would it mean for the Twins' schedule if, say, the first month were chopped off the season and around 140 games were played?

We have a few precedents we can look to in assessing how a delayed start would be handled:

The 2020 Season: Shortened to 60 games due to the pandemic. Schedule was completely overhauled and rewritten. This doesn't feel like a good comparison, both because the season was so short and because traveling concerns led to regionalized competition.

The 1990 Season: Delayed by one week due to a 32-day lockout, initiated in February. An agreement was reached on March 19th, and the regular season started on April 9th. They needed to add a few days to the end of the season to accommodate, but no games were lost and no substantial schedule changes were necessary. This is starting to feel like a best-case scenario.

The 1995 Season: A shortened 144-game season commenced on April 25th. The players' strike that cut short the '94 season carried over into this one before an agreement was finally reached on April 2nd. This feels like the most pertinent example to unpack.

The simplest approach in this scenario – given all the work that goes into building the original schedule, all the travel planning that's been done, and so forth – would be to just chop off the first chunk of games and pick up wherever the season starts. But that doesn't really work, because you lose the balance and parity of the schedule. 

Divisional competition is based on the idea that each team plays one another an equal number of times, and experiences a relatively similar strength of schedule outside the division. Throwing that out of whack threatens the integrity of the season and its results.

So alterations of some kind are going to be necessary, although those alterations don't necessarily need to be extreme. 

Walter LeConte wrote a review of the 1995 original and revised schedules, published at Retrosheet. He mentions there were many additions and subtractions from the original schedule, sites of series moved, doubleheaders added. An unfortunate byproduct of the shakeup was numerous one-game homestands.

"To my knowledge, no major league schedule was as unbalanced as the revised one," LeConte wrote. "As a result, some oddities became evident. For example, there was no scheduled game set for Florida at San Diego for the entire season, the only such occurrence in the either league. In the American League, there were eight occurrences of only two championship games being planned versus an opponent at home for the entire season."

A fun little factoid from this analysis: "The only club in either league not requiring changes of any kind was the Minnesota Twins."

Suffice to say that wouldn't be the case this year. Any kind of significant shortening of the season would require a fair amount of juggling for the schedules of the Twins and many other teams. It shouldn't be taken for granted what an undertaking this is. As LeConte concluded in his review, "I must truly commend those involved in creating the revised schedule, an effort worthy of much praise!"

The bottom line: if you were thinking about planning a trip this summer around a Twins road series (as I almost always do) ... I'd recommend holding off for now. 

Everything is up in the air. 

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I know the lions den I may be walking (typing?) into here, and I will take the heat, but there is one premise in the article I just can't agree with which is the part of why talks are stalled (the rest of the article was very informative, and I loved it).  I have spent over 20 years of my working life in unions, and I have seen more than enough of the give and take in contract talks, and all of the propaganda out of each side, to say I have never seen a contract impasse yet that is totally one sided.  In this case if an outside arbitrator can give it a fresh look and make recommendations, why would the union reject that?  We are already at a point where no matter what happens, no one is going to "win" this battle of the wills.  Neither side is blameless in the debacle.  I have no desire to see baseball hurt itself over when a player can become a free agent or how much of a minimum or maximum a team must spend on payroll.  The owners come out ahead in the long haul, and the players make a damn good wage for playing a game.  Both sides think they can do better, and are butting heads.  Bring in a neutral observer and get it done.  But anyone thinking one side or the other is totally to blame has already made up their mind who they are rooting for and will never see the other side.  Public sentiment for either side gives them the encouragement to dig in, and all that does is ensure no baseball. 

To quote a song, "there ain't no good guys, there ain't no bad guys, there's only you and me, and we just disagree".   Time to make up, boys.  If that mean you need a marriage counselor, get one.  A divorce is not an option. 

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3 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know the lions den I may be walking (typing?) into here, and I will take the heat, but there is one premise in the article I just can't agree with which is the part of why talks are stalled (the rest of the article was very informative, and I loved it).  I have spent over 20 years of my working life in unions, and I have seen more than enough of the give and take in contract talks, and all of the propaganda out of each side, to say I have never seen a contract impasse yet that is totally one sided.  In this case if an outside arbitrator can give it a fresh look and make recommendations, why would the union reject that?  We are already at a point where no matter what happens, no one is going to "win" this battle of the wills.  Neither side is blameless in the debacle.  I have no desire to see baseball hurt itself over when a player can become a free agent or how much of a minimum or maximum a team must spend on payroll.  The owners come out ahead in the long haul, and the players make a damn good wage for playing a game.  Both sides think they can do better, and are butting heads.  Bring in a neutral observer and get it done.  But anyone thinking one side or the other is totally to blame has already made up their mind who they are rooting for and will never see the other side.  Public sentiment for either side gives them the encouragement to dig in, and all that does is ensure no baseball. 

To quote a song, "there ain't no good guys, there ain't no bad guys, there's only you and me, and we just disagree".   Time to make up, boys.  If that mean you need a marriage counselor, get one.  A divorce is not an option. 

Fantastic Post. WIth a Dave Mason reference thrown in perfectly. 

Feelin Alright. 

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Just sad.  Thanks for the review of other disrupted seasons. I know it is unbalanced, but I think they should just start wherever point they are at in the schedule and just lose the ones that were missed even if it does mean we lose a chance to see the Dodgers at home.  

No arbitrator, no counter offer by the owners, significant issues for the players.  Will we wake up one morning and see that both sides capitulated and the lockout/strike is over?  It is my dream.

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3 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know the lions den I may be walking (typing?) into here, and I will take the heat, but there is one premise in the article I just can't agree with which is the part of why talks are stalled (the rest of the article was very informative, and I loved it).  I have spent over 20 years of my working life in unions, and I have seen more than enough of the give and take in contract talks, and all of the propaganda out of each side, to say I have never seen a contract impasse yet that is totally one sided.  In this case if an outside arbitrator can give it a fresh look and make recommendations, why would the union reject that?  We are already at a point where no matter what happens, no one is going to "win" this battle of the wills.  Neither side is blameless in the debacle.  I have no desire to see baseball hurt itself over when a player can become a free agent or how much of a minimum or maximum a team must spend on payroll.  The owners come out ahead in the long haul, and the players make a damn good wage for playing a game.  Both sides think they can do better, and are butting heads.  Bring in a neutral observer and get it done.  But anyone thinking one side or the other is totally to blame has already made up their mind who they are rooting for and will never see the other side.  Public sentiment for either side gives them the encouragement to dig in, and all that does is ensure no baseball. 

To quote a song, "there ain't no good guys, there ain't no bad guys, there's only you and me, and we just disagree".   Time to make up, boys.  If that mean you need a marriage counselor, get one.  A divorce is not an option. 

First let me say I don't think you are wrong.  It was a bit of a head scratcher for the Players Union not to agree to at least try a mediator.  Although from what I understand given past history it hasn't worked out all that well in the past.

I also agree that we make up our minds one way or the other on the good guy, bad guy scenario.  I have gone back and forth on calling out each side in this ongoing process.  As a fan though I feel like I have certain emotional hot points in regard to player treatment and what I feel is best for my team or my teams situation.  I really don't like service time manipulation.  If they play over half the games in a season then give them credit for a full season if they play less than half then give them super 2 status.  That way they might as well just start the young guys at the start of the season instead of waiting.  The other injustice I see is that young players that are extremely productive don't get paid enough for that production and there is no guarantee they will make it to a big payday if their arm gives out or their bat starts to slump.  I get that everyone in the working world has a pay your dues moment but a baseball career can be relatively short.  I think there should be a bonus system for young players that exceed production expectations.  Those are things I would like to see addressed and when MLB doesn't even seem to want to look at ways to make that better well in my eyes they look like a bad guy.

Same for the players union when they want to raise the cap when I am rooting for a team that cannot even compete for the best Free Agents without greatly impacting the rest of the team they can field.  So that proposal makes them feel like the bad guy to me.  While I see your point that both sides have their reasons for why they see things the way they do as fans I still think you end up picking sides.  I do get that they agree to disagree and there will be no perfect solution but it is hard to keep emotion out of it.

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A pox on both their houses if they don't settle this soon.  IF the season has to be shortened, it will make getting off to a fast start extremely important.  With what is looking like a young starting rotation, this will be a challenge for the Twins, especially if spring training is truncated.  In fact, even if the full season is played, it is important for the Twins to start fast to put last year in the rear view mirror.  The White Sox games will be a very important, and a good barometer of where the Twins are at.

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I think the union rejected the mediator offer because the owners didn't even counter the union's latest proposal, they went directly to "lets get a mediator". Federal mediation in this case is non-binding and really has had little effect in previous MLB negotiations. The owners want total control and I think that means a disrupted regular season and most probably significantly.

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Baseball can't afford to lose this season.

But honestly, the MLB player pay structure, service time, economic disparity and revenue sharing are so broken, there's no way to fix it all in a couple of months. Anything they can accomplish between now and March would only be a band aid over a gushing wound. I'd guess the only way the young players stop getting taken advantage of and the fans get team parity is for the owners to suffer a lost season.

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Really discouraging for fans. From my 30,000-foot perspective it seems the players lose a lot of leverage once they start losing game checks. Especially considering the owners were looking to pay as few game checks as possible coming back from the COVID stoppage in 2020.

How does the Saints roster look after removing everyone on the Twins 40-man roster? 

 

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Based on TD, most of the fan base currently blames the owners. That might have something to do with the players not accepting outside mediation. They have the advantage at present in the court of public opinion, Why submit to another "court" where they might not fare so well?

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I don't think the owners start making the big bucks until school lets out. Opening Day on May 15th would be just fine for them.

If they decide to add more playoffs I would be in favor of going back to a 154 game schedule. Drop a week of regular season games so the World Series isn't in the middle of November.

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First it is when the season is delayed, because it will be.  Then it really depends on how delayed it is.  I would assume if only by a few weeks, it may be part of the agreement, but may do some built in DH to make up, or just cancel them.  Most likely they will need to rewrite the schedule if they cancel games.  

I expect a full rewritten schedule with a reduced amount of games, just how many will be the question. 

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3 hours ago, Dman said:

First let me say I don't think you are wrong.  It was a bit of a head scratcher for the Players Union not to agree to at least try a mediator.  Although from what I understand given past history it hasn't worked out all that well in the past.

I also agree that we make up our minds one way or the other on the good guy, bad guy scenario.  I have gone back and forth on calling out each side in this ongoing process.  As a fan though I feel like I have certain emotional hot points in regard to player treatment and what I feel is best for my team or my teams situation.  I really don't like service time manipulation.  If they play over half the games in a season then give them credit for a full season if they play less than half then give them super 2 status.  That way they might as well just start the young guys at the start of the season instead of waiting.  The other injustice I see is that young players that are extremely productive don't get paid enough for that production and there is no guarantee they will make it to a big payday if their arm gives out or their bat starts to slump.  I get that everyone in the working world has a pay your dues moment but a baseball career can be relatively short.  I think there should be a bonus system for young players that exceed production expectations.  Those are things I would like to see addressed and when MLB doesn't even seem to want to look at ways to make that better well in my eyes they look like a bad guy.

Same for the players union when they want to raise the cap when I am rooting for a team that cannot even compete for the best Free Agents without greatly impacting the rest of the team they can field.  So that proposal makes them feel like the bad guy to me.  While I see your point that both sides have their reasons for why they see things the way they do as fans I still think you end up picking sides.  I do get that they agree to disagree and there will be no perfect solution but it is hard to keep emotion out of it.

This is all reasonable.  There is no perfect system where everyone gets treated fairly.  Players don’t get paid big money the first 3 years.  Chris Davis / Jason Heyward and many many others get paid an absolute fortune to underperform or even perform at or near replacement level. Look at Pujlos and Cabrera.  They are going to get paid huge for 5 or 6 years at near replacement level.  Many others are overpaid for 2-3 years.  Ironically, the frequency of these bad contracts helps mitigate the spending advantage the top revenue teams have over the bottom revenue teams given those bottom revenue teams so rarely sign these deals.  Maybe they should enact a clause allowing teams to cancel these deals but 1/2 of the money goes into a fund to be distributed among all prearb players.  I am being facetious but it would be more fair than players getting paid $150M to perform at replacement level and prearb players making $600K.

The system that is in place basically has an internship and then players get paid big.  The good ones make generational wealth in 10 years and retire at 35.  ?  Does it really matter if they make $600K for the 1st 3 years?  It’s not like they are suffering making twice what the average doctor makes.  More importantly, this compensation system is crucial to below average revenue teams every having a shot to build a contender. Is it worth further eroding parity so that these guys can get paid earlier?  Granted, there will be some players that suffer career ending injuries before they get to the big money.  There are also plenty of Mark Appels who never even earn a roster spot but get a bonus that is 3 times more than the average guy makes in a lifetime.  

Is every player who ever makes it to MLB level entitled to earnings such that they can retire whenever they are done playing?  As it is, any player that can maintain a roster spot even as a bench player will make enough to retire. An “Ehire Adrianza” bench type player will make $12-15M over their career. Let’s call it $7M after taxes.  If they buy a $1M home and spend $1M on living expenses over their career they have $5M to invest.  Let’s just say they buy an apartment building.  If they hire a property management firm so they don’t need to be bothered with anything, they can return about 6% OR $300K/year.  An average everyday player is going to make enough to retire at 35, live like a king and leave a trust fund that would all their kids to live like a king never working a day in their lives.  How is it a problem they have to work a couple years at a reduced rate?

One of the best parallels is MDs and their internship.  They spend 8-10 years in school and come out with a half-million in student loads and then work insane hours for little pay for a couple hours.  When they are done with that program the average doctor makes 1/2 of what the MLB minimum will be in the next CBA.  IMO, we should be far more worried about how any changes impact parity than if players need to wait a couple years before they can afford a private jet.
 

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To quote a good old boy southern legislator whose name currently escapes me, "It's hard to get pigs away from the trough without making them squeal." Right now neither side in these negotiations is squealing and they aren't going to start squealing until the trough runs dry. Then they'll start eating each other. And that's when it will take an arbitrator, not a mediator, to settle this.

I think I'm going to take up fishing this summer. Seems like a good time to wet a line again.

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7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know the lions den I may be walking (typing?) into here, and I will take the heat, but there is one premise in the article I just can't agree with which is the part of why talks are stalled (the rest of the article was very informative, and I loved it).  I have spent over 20 years of my working life in unions, and I have seen more than enough of the give and take in contract talks, and all of the propaganda out of each side, to say I have never seen a contract impasse yet that is totally one sided.  In this case if an outside arbitrator can give it a fresh look and make recommendations, why would the union reject that?  We are already at a point where no matter what happens, no one is going to "win" this battle of the wills.  Neither side is blameless in the debacle.  I have no desire to see baseball hurt itself over when a player can become a free agent or how much of a minimum or maximum a team must spend on payroll.  The owners come out ahead in the long haul, and the players make a damn good wage for playing a game.  Both sides think they can do better, and are butting heads.  Bring in a neutral observer and get it done.  But anyone thinking one side or the other is totally to blame has already made up their mind who they are rooting for and will never see the other side.  Public sentiment for either side gives them the encouragement to dig in, and all that does is ensure no baseball. 

To quote a song, "there ain't no good guys, there ain't no bad guys, there's only you and me, and we just disagree".   Time to make up, boys.  If that mean you need a marriage counselor, get one.  A divorce is not an option. 

No lions den at all I think, it's a fair and honest assessment.

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26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This is all reasonable.  There is no perfect system where everyone gets treated fairly.  Players don’t get paid big money the first 3 years.  Chris Davis / Jason Heyward and many many others get paid an absolute fortune to underperform or even perform at or near replacement level. Look at Pujlos and Cabrera.  They are going to get paid huge for 5 or 6 years at near replacement level.  Many others are overpaid for 2-3 years.  Ironically, the frequency of these bad contracts helps mitigate the spending advantage the top revenue teams have over the bottom revenue teams given those bottom revenue teams so rarely sign these deals.  Maybe they should enact a clause allowing teams to cancel these deals but 1/2 of the money goes into a fund to be distributed among all prearb players.  I am being facetious but it would be more fair than players getting paid $150M to perform at replacement level and prearb players making $600K.

The system that is in place basically has an internship and then players get paid big.  The good ones make generational wealth in 10 years and retire at 35.  ?  Does it really matter if they make $600K for the 1st 3 years?  It’s not like they are suffering making twice what the average doctor makes.  More importantly, this compensation system is crucial to below average revenue teams every having a shot to build a contender. Is it worth further eroding parity so that these guys can get paid earlier?  Granted, there will be some players that suffer career ending injuries before they get to the big money.  There are also plenty of Mark Appels who never even earn a roster spot but get a bonus that is 3 times more than the average guy makes in a lifetime.  

Is every player who ever makes it to MLB level entitled to earnings such that they can retire whenever they are done playing?  As it is, any player that can maintain a roster spot even as a bench player will make enough to retire. An “Ehire Adrianza” bench type player will make $12-15M over their career. Let’s call it $7M after taxes.  If they buy a $1M home and spend $1M on living expenses over their career they have $5M to invest.  Let’s just say they buy an apartment building.  If they hire a property management firm so they don’t need to be bothered with anything, they can return about 6% OR $300K/year.  An average everyday player is going to make enough to retire at 35, live like a king and leave a trust fund that would all their kids to live like a king never working a day in their lives.  How is it a problem they have to work a couple years at a reduced rate?

One of the best parallels is MDs and their internship.  They spend 8-10 years in school and come out with a half-million in student loads and then work insane hours for little pay for a couple hours.  When they are done with that program the average doctor makes 1/2 of what the MLB minimum will be in the next CBA.  IMO, we should be far more worried about how any changes impact parity than if players need to wait a couple years before they can afford a private jet.
 

A wee bit of an oversimplification on the numbers perhaps (if I had to nitpick a point :)), but I think you make a solid point overall.

Thank God that MLB can't touch or affect HS or college games/seasons (yet), because at least we have those guys to watch and root on.

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8 hours ago, Mark G said:

I know the lions den I may be walking (typing?) into here, and I will take the heat, but there is one premise in the article I just can't agree with which is the part of why talks are stalled (the rest of the article was very informative, and I loved it). 

Great comment, all very fair. I didn't mean to imply that one side is totally at fault overall, although obviously I'm much more sympathetic to the players.

My point was this: owners initiated the lockout. Owners waited 6 weeks to engage in any kind of negotiations. Owners claimed they were going to submit a new proposal and didn't, then said they want to bring in a mediator. It's all just terrible optics for the billionaire class charged with overseeing this great game. 

As far as the fundamentally unfair ground rules, this graphic sorta says it all to me: 

FKzU9qEVgAIx3In.png

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4 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

I think the union rejected the mediator offer because the owners didn't even counter the union's latest proposal, they went directly to "lets get a mediator". Federal mediation in this case is non-binding and really has had little effect in previous MLB negotiations. The owners want total control and I think that means a disrupted regular season and most probably significantly.

The MLBPA didn't counter-propose either. They left a one penny tip on a $20 bill. It was a direct insult.  

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While both sides certainly have their faults, owners especially for what I feel is inflaming tensions prior to the start of the negotiations and the asinine full team control until age 29.5 first offer back in September, since then, in my opinion, it's been almost all the MLBPA throwing a temper tantrum.

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1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

An average everyday player is going to make enough to retire at 35, live like a king and leave a trust fund that would all their kids to live like a king never working a day in their lives.  How is it a problem they have to work a couple years at a reduced rate?

How is it a problem that the owner can't buy a brand new 100 foot yacht every year? He might have to buy a new yacht every other year instead.

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12 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Great comment, all very fair. I didn't mean to imply that one side is totally at fault overall, although obviously I'm much more sympathetic to the players.

My point was this: owners initiated the lockout. Owners waited 6 weeks to engage in any kind of negotiations. Owners claimed they were going to submit a new proposal and didn't, then said they want to bring in a mediator. It's all just terrible optics for the billionaire class charged with overseeing this great game. 

As far as the fundamentally unfair ground rules, this graphic sorta says it all to me: 

FKzU9qEVgAIx3In.png

Is the red line gross revenue or net revenue.  And if net revenue, how was the net amount decided? What expenditures were figured? .Many costs have gone up. The salaries of the players are just a part of the total costs of running a baseball team. Do these figures take into account revenue sharing?  Many other questions about these statistics.  I don't have near enough information in these statistics for me to accept them as proving anything. 

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4 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I apologize if I am being rude, however I don't have near enough information in these statistics for me to accept them as proving anything. 

No worries mate. I think the rude bar is set pretty high when it comes to labor negotiations. ?

I tend to side with the Players Association if for no other reason that they are bargaining from a disadvantage; the owners don't open their books enough to know the full financial picture.

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To the owners and the players: Quit whining, quit posturing and get a mediator and compromise or you will kill the goose who has been laying the golden eggs that you all have been enjoying.  You have certainly affected my spring training trip and I don't appreciate it. And while you are deciding how to divvy up your millions of dollars,  will somebody please reimburse me my 400 dollars for spring training game tickets to see the Twins play the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies and reimburse me for my Ft. Myers Airbnb which I rented to the tune of a thousand bucks?  

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