Stock Watch: 3 Falling Twins Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Not every prospect can follow a perfect development path due to injuries or lack of production. These three players have seen their stock fall significantly over the last year.

It would be great if every prospect in a farm system were coming off a breakout season so their stock could continue to rise. However, that isn't always the case, and the players below have plenty to prove in 2022. 

Royce Lewis, SS/CF
Seth's 2022 Prospect Rank: 1
All three major national rankings (Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com) considered Lewis a top-35 prospect entering last season. Unfortunately, Lewis missed all of the 2021 season following ACL surgery, and now he must stay healthy in 2022. He won't turn 23 until the beginning of June, so he has development time even with two lost seasons. All of his rehab reports were positive, so he should be on track to start next season at Double- or Triple-A. 

Seth recently ranked the top-30 hitting and pitching prospects, and he continues to have Lewis as the organization's top prospect. Many national outlets are dropping Lewis out of their top-100 prospects or placing him near the end of their rankings. It is clear that Lewis has seen his stock drop, and this is tied to his lost development time in his early 20s that can be critical for long-term success. Lewis is a tremendous athlete with tools that should help him return to his previous form. 

Blayne Enlow, RHP
Seth's 2022 Prospect Rank: 17
Enlow wasn't considered a top-100 prospect, but many considered him a top-10 prospect in the Twins organization. Minnesota drafted him out of high school in the 3rd round back in 2017. He ranked as the fifth-best high school pitcher, and the Twins had to sign him for an above slot deal to keep him from his commitment to LSU. He moved rapidly through the Twins system in his first three professional seasons as he was nearly two years younger than the competition at each stop. Last season, he made three starts in Cedar Rapids before having Tommy John surgery in June. This means he should be able to return in 2022. 

Since the end of the 2019 season, Enlow has pitched fewer than 15 professional innings, which is significant development time lost in his early 20s. At the same time, the Twins have added some higher-level prospects that rank higher than him. Luckily, he should be on pace to head to the upper minors when he returns from injury. His fastball has added velocity and movement in recent years. Enlow's second-best pitch is his curveball, which improved during his pro career. Many believe he can develop into a mid-rotation starter when mixing in a slider and a change-up. 

Keoni Cavaco, SS
Seth's 2022 Prospect Rank: 30
Cavaco was Minnesota's first-round pick in 2019, and many evaluators viewed him as a stretch as the 13th overall pick. He struggled in his first taste of pro ball as he hit .172/.217/.253 (.470) with 35 strikeouts in 25 games. During the 2020 season, Cavaco worked with his swing to keep it in the zone longer to cut down on his swing-and-miss tendency. He has also been able to work on his physical make-up, which may help him in the long run. 

During the 2021 season, he played the majority of the season at Low-A, where he was over a year younger than the competition. In 63 games, he hit .233/.296/.302 (.598) with 95 strikeouts and 11 extra-base hits. His strikeout totals were still too high, and he hasn't shown the ability to make contact consistently. This winter, he will drop on many Twins' top prospect lists, and he has a lot to prove in 2022. 

Which player's stock has fallen the most? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Prince William]

Injuries lead to out of sight, out of mind. It is no big deal that they fall in rankings. 

 

[RJA]

Lewis and Enlow dropped due to injury and inactivity, but truthfully while both players showed promise, neither player really demonstrated can't miss type performances before their injuries.  Cavaco has yet to show why he was a first pick.  But, all three of these players were drafted out of high school so there is still time for them to shine despite their injuries and challenges.  Miranda is a good example of why we should never write off minor league players too early.  But, to answer your question, Cody, I would have to say Cavaco's stock has dropped the most since his performance has not been affected by injury like the others, and he looks a little lost at times.

[roger]

Cavaco is dropping because like Javier, he ain’t getting it done on the field.  That’s totally different than Lewis and Enlow who missed 2020 and were injured in 2021.

[gman]

All 3  lost time due to injury last year and all 3 lost the entire 2020 covid year. If all 3 are healthy this year would make our entire system look that much stronger. Since (hopefully) 5-6 players will graduate to the big club this year, I think there will be room in the rankings. I don't mind other players passing them in the rankings, if they are truly better.

[mikelink45]

I think you chose a good three to bring out discussion.  Royce Lewis has had a strange career.   In 2019 he did not look that good until the Fall League and now he has missed two years and who knows what will happen in baseball this year.  It is a bad luck career so far and thus we have no real measure of who he is.  Potential is an elusive friend.

The other two are still not on my radar for the Twins team.  Good luck to both.  Keoni is will be 21, it is about time for him to show he was draft worthy.

[Dman]

I agree with the OP.  All three players have seen their stock drop.  I am still a believer in Lewis and Enlow though.  Enlow looked about to break out before injury as did Lewis.  There is probably going to be rust as they come back but I still think they will likely play big roles with the MLB team.

I just don't know what to think about Cavaceo.  Kind of feels like he might be a late bloomer?  I don't think that bat is going to be as good as they hoped but it is very early and Covid really hurt his development time.  Still I wish instead of a late riser they would have picked the guy I wanted in Corbin Carroll or even Bryson Stot who I wasn't in love with at the time but was a close to ready shortstop.  Both of those players had known good hit tools and have been successful thus far in their careers.  I hope the Twins learned a lesson there.

[jjswol]

I believe that Cavaco was over-rated to begin with and shouldn't even have been a first round selection so seeing him drop in the rating is not much of a surprise.

[Trov]

Cavaco was only higher on the list because of his draft status, but even then he was not very high on many lists.  He was seen as a very high risk high reward kind of pick.  He is still young and can grow, but I am not optimistic on him. 

What really sucks is a SS from college picked the exact next pick is looking like he will be making majors next year, Cavaco still has a couple years before you call him a complete miss, but he has not shown much so far.  We will see what next year brings.  

[jmlease1]

I'd bump Lewis out for Sabato. I'm definitely more forgiving for injury; it's a) almost always outside the player's control, and b) players can come back from it really strong. I'm more worried about guys who perform poorly on the field, and Sabato had a brutal start to his year. He was pretty bad in the FSL and just couldn't make consistent contact, and for a player whose value is going to almost exclusively come from his bat...yuck.

Despite the missed time, Lewis is the same age as Sabato and has a better array of tools.

[big dog]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

 

Despite the missed time, Lewis is the same age as Sabato and has a better array of tools.

Agreed. If I had to bet on one it would be Lewis, and I wouldn't even think about it. I think Lewis is going to help this team fairly soon, just not sure how much.

Cavaco? I hope he has a better career than Javier has so far, but that's not asking for much. At this point I don't see a major league future for him, though of course he could certainly change that with a big jump this year. I'd bet the under, though.

[Rosterman]

Enlow and Lewis, if they stay healthy, will come back. We keep forgetting that 2020 was a lost season for MOST ALL minor league players. All they did was get older, and lockup minor league service time towards their own free-agency. But MOST ALL flooundered by not advancing that season that they would've with competitive play.,

 

Keoni is 20 years old. Maybe he will blossom. The Twins have two more seasons to hope he thrives and they need to add him to the 40-man or lose him.

[Seansy]

Cavaco still has time to right the ship but it's looking dicey given his struggles so far. I wanted Stott, Carroll, Espino, or Rutledge at that spot. Rutledge has been up and down but still looks better than Cavaco. Stott is a top 100 guy now, Espino is in the 50-75 range and Carroll is top 25-50. Hopefully Cavaco bounces back because there are A LOT of guys we passed on that the Twins will look back on and regret not taking.

[Heiny]

21 hours ago, Seansy said:

Cavaco still has time to right the ship but it's looking dicey given his struggles so far. I wanted Stott, Carroll, Espino, or Rutledge at that spot. Rutledge has been up and down but still looks better than Cavaco. Stott is a top 100 guy now, Espino is in the 50-75 range and Carroll is top 25-50. Hopefully Cavaco bounces back because there are A LOT of guys we passed on that the Twins will look back on and regret not taking.

Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?

[Finlander]

Lewis and Enlow at least have some upside to look forward to assessing as they recover from injuries. Cavaco, on the other hand, looks like the next Levi Michael. Career rate of 1.3-1.5 Ks per game paired with a miniscule OPS won't get it done. Might be best if he was a throw-in lottery ticket dealt to another team.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 2/5/2022 at 1:26 PM, Rosterman said:

Enlow and Lewis, if they stay healthy, will come back. We keep forgetting that 2020 was a lost season for MOST ALL minor league players. All they did was get older, and lockup minor league service time towards their own free-agency. But MOST ALL flooundered by not advancing that season that they would've with competitive play.,

We including me keep saying that but it would be interesting to see if it is actually True, Miranda for one came back better. Maybe the guys that are going to be good did fine or improved and maybe the guys that take way longer or never were going to make it suffered. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

 

On another note if Lewis wasn't already trending down on the national lists, I don't think the injury would have affected his status as much as it has. Starting high on the top prospects lists, there are really only two paths, one is quick to the majors and the other is down the prospects lists and hope to prove them wrong. Lewis has always seemed the guy that was going to follow the second path.

Enlow on the other had has probably never been on the national prospects radar, but since we are super fans we see a guy that was a 3rd round pick that was supposed to go to LSU and see a future ace. He hasn't done anything in the minors that screams that, but we hope and hope and then he gets injured and we get to use that as an excuse to hope and hope and dream so more. Enlow has probably always been over hyped by us, he turns 23 and never has pitched above high A, if not for the Covid missed year, he would have to come back from injury lights out to even be considered a prospect anymore.

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, Heiny said:

Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing?

Normally, this is true. However, it was pretty universal amongst baseball folks that Cavaco was a real stretch and everyone loved Carroll but he is not a big athlete in terms of size. Even if Cavaco makes it, this pick was a loose chance.

[nicksaviking]

I'm bummed out about Lewis, but seeing how quickly position playing prospects Sano and Kirilloff recovered from TJ surgery, I'm looking forward to seeing him rebound in a big way.

Cavaco stings, especially considering Bryson Stott was picked right after him and he's in AAA for the Phillies right now. He might have solved the Twins 2022 SS conundrum. 

[raindog]

On 2/5/2022 at 9:39 AM, Trov said:

Cavaco was only higher on the list because of his draft status, but even then he was not very high on many lists.  He was seen as a very high risk high reward kind of pick.  He is still young and can grow, but I am not optimistic on him. 

What really sucks is a SS from college picked the exact next pick is looking like he will be making majors next year, Cavaco still has a couple years before you call him a complete miss, but he has not shown much so far.  We will see what next year brings.  

I realize the MLB draft is a bit of a crap shoot and you could do this most drafts, but looking at who was chosen after Cavaco is brutal. A lot of big prospect names. I had it in my mind that Cavaco was chosen pretty late in the 1st round but 13th overall looks so bad. Hopefully he can prove us wrong.

[bean5302]

Cavaco is half a season from being declared a total bust and I think he could be released at the end of this year. Enlow and Lewis were both protected, and that should tell folks all they need to know about how they're viewed. Lewis and Enlow have been severely hampered by injuries, but even so, they're viewed as high end prospects.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, Finlander said:

Lewis and Enlow at least have some upside to look forward to assessing as they recover from injuries. Cavaco, on the other hand, looks like the next Levi Michael. Career rate of 1.3-1.5 Ks per game paired with a miniscule OPS won't get it done. Might be best if he was a throw-in lottery ticket dealt to another team.

Levi Michael was far, far superior to Cavaco in his MiLB performance. I thought Michael was going to be taken in the rule 5 when he was left exposed in 2015 after his .804 OPS performance in AA. I don't think Michael was too far off from some MLB appearances with the Mets in 2018.

[Battle ur tail off]

2 really high picks on this list from the Wunderkids front office. Not good. 

 

Let's hope they can turn it around. 

[Mike Sixel]

The cavaco pick was awful when made. And Sabato is likely also. 

When you say many believe Enlow will be a mid rotation starter.... Who is that? Because every outside ranker would have him in their top 100 then.....