Discuss: 2022 Bullpen

[cHawk]

In 2021, the Twins bullpen struggled mightily early on. It didn’t struggle as much later in the year, however. The bullpen was much better than the starting rotation in that it was simply bad. The Twins had the 10th most bullpen losses and 11th highest bullpen ERA. Most of the other (meaningful) stats (WPA, WHIP, etc) were around 15th.

Much of the bullpen’s struggles were attributed to offseason acquisition Alex Colome, who was pitching out of the closer role early. Watching him pitch in 2021 was insufferable. Just take a look:

Yeah…lets not bring him back please.

As of right now, the 2022 bullpen looks like this:
- Taylor Rogers
- Tyler Duffey
- Jorge Alcala
- Caleb Thielbar
- open slot
- open slot
- open slot
- open slot

The Twins have four slots to fill. Those slots could be filled with prospects, waiver wire pickups (no, they’re not bad by definition), and free agents. I think Jhoan Duran could pitch out of the pen at one point (if he’s healthy) as a long reliever, so he could theoretically take up one slot. I’m not a Dobnak or Jax fan, but one of them could possibly (possibly) pitch out of the pen.

Questions for Discussion:
1. What do you think about the current state of the 2022 relief staff?
2. What do you think needs to happen for the 2022 relief staff to be competitive?
3. Do you think that these things can/will happen? Why or why not?

[DocBauer]

Kinda stole my thunder because I was thinking about this the last couple of days.

The evolution of the bullpen has been vast the last few years. I think there is something to be still said about a traditional "closer" if you have one to finish a game. But I think we have discovered/realized that a save by someone facing the bottom of the order doesn't mean what it used to mean, with all due respect to Reardon, Nathan, Perkins and others. There is ABSOLUTELY a place for a CLOSER. Because there ARE games when the heart of the opposition lineup will come up. And the best bullpen will have some STUD to deal with anyone. But those kinds of arms aren't available to everyone. You're lucky if you have one. 

Not perfect,  Rogers has been pretty close to great.

Colome was until he wasn't, ugh, what might have been.

As far as 2022?

I haven't heard a single word of doubt about Rogers. So I'm riding with this,

Duffey started poorly, figured stuff out, adapted, has a young arm, I'm OK.

Thielbar allowed too many inherited runners to score, then settled down,  I'm OK.

Alcala was pressed,flashed but was poor, settled down and was beyond OK. 

Moran didn't have a great debut, but we know what he offers and at least got his feet wet. He has a chance to be really good. But if everyone is healthy and ready to go, he could ramp up at AAA initially. 

Does Thorpe, out of options, have a shot at the pen as a 3rd LH? Or is he a waiver option we hope sticks around?

Colombe is still around as a roster addition if needed. 

The left side is OK if Rogers is healthy. 

No disrespect or lack of conviction, but this pen needs another RH to take the pressure off of Rogers and Duffey and Alcala. And there are a number of options available after the lockout. And it's pointless at this point to pick ONE, But there are a few arms who offer competence if not upside. And we need that!

The 2022 bullpen is going to roll through options not just for RP, but for SP getting their feet wet in the pen at times. 

But assuming good health, and one smart FA signing, the pen could easily have 5 guys to depend on. That, potentially, gives you 3 spots to float with all available arms between St Paul and the ML roster. Think Stashak, Jax, and others who could play and audition in the pen, Cotton, and Garza as current options. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer has this.  I like the strategy of using a lot of our young arms out of the pen to get them some seasoning but I also think one more GOOD RH arm, preferably someone who could close if need be would be very helpful.  The guy I WANTED was Kendall Graveman...but the White Sox snapped him up despite already having Hendricks AND Kimbrell on the roster.  So much for a FO that identifies a need and a player who's a good fit and moves aggressively to address it.  (Sigh).  

[Dman]

Yeah I have been thinking about the pen as well.  I think the top 4 mentioned are locks and honestly I think they like Garza enough that he will be a lock as well.  They kept Stashak on the 40 man so I assume he is virtually a lock as well.  I personally think Cotton ends up in the pen but I know Fangraphs did an article on him saying he started in the past and could compete for a starter spot on this Twins team depending what else the Twins do in free agency but I see him in the pen.

So that is 7 out 8 spots I have penciled in.  I don't know where Duran is at but having another power pitcher to compliment Alcala would sure be nice.  Other teams having to face 100MPH and that splinker would be tough IMO.  Odds are though he won't be ready to go at the start of the season but hopefully they move him in and he can be a stopper in the pen. 

I could also see the Twins putting Sands in the pen as well.  My understanding is that he has a lot in common with how Duffey throws and I am not sure the Twins will keep Duffey past this season since they don't like to pay relievers big money.  They could groom Sands as his replacement.  This scenario probably depends on how other starters like Winder, Strotman and Balazovich look first though.

I don't know what the Twins plan to do with Thorpe.  Given his velocity concerns and the fact that Moran is in the wings and even Smelzter if needed I thought they would have exposed him by now.  They must know Something that we don't if they are keeping him on the 40 man.  Or maybe just waiting to see how he performs early to make their final decision.  So I have no idea if he will be an option or not.  If they can use him that would be a bonus IMO but it seems unlikely given his recent performances.

They could use a closer type arm but I don't think they will give the years necessary to get a good one.  They have the money but I guess we will have to wait to see how things shake out after the lockout.

[Doctor Gast]

Like many areas BP is a great big ? and I agree with TopGun that FO has failed to see the need and go for it which is sorely needed this off season. My hope is Rogers will still produce, FO is able to find a viable RH counter part and they establish a strong long relief corp.

[Ryan_K]

They should give Collin McHugh a 3 year 7 mm per year deal. Great numbers and statcast profile. And it gives us insurance if Duffy and Rogers leave next winter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

My prediction is 2 are going to be minor league starters in the stacker/piggy back type of role. My guess is the Twins trade for or sign another starter, put Jax in the rotation. The piggy-backs might be Dobnak, and Duran or Sands cycle through some of the other prospects to get their mlb feet wet and manage innings of Ryan, avoid over exposure for Jax or Bundy 

FA starter

Ober

Jax

Ryan piggy Sands

Bundy piggy Dobnak
 

The 3rd would be a traditional long reliever AAAA fodder and the 4th slot would likely be a fireman type, another arm to come in if the starter needs to come out ahead of schedule (for instance Bundy is scheduled through 4 but can’t get through the 4th l and Dobnak isn’t warm and scheduled 5th-8th). I’d like it to be McHugh, but likely internal candidate.

Stepping back away from my rambling, my guess is the Twins go to a 6 man bullpen 7 man rotation.

[Original_JB]

I hate to call it a mop-up guy because they will hopefully not be constantly pitching from behind, but they need a guy that a. throws strikes, b. has stuff that works for both L and R, c. can get through the order 1 time on roughly 50-60 pitches, so 2-3 inning stints, and d. can go every 3-4 days.  I don't want a 1 inning guy stretched beyond his comfort level, nor a 'spot' starter; I want someone with a mix of pitches who can pace themselves to where they aren't totally 'spent' when their 50-60 pitches is up, because they'll  be going 2x a week.

 

[USAFChief]

On 2/6/2022 at 8:17 AM, Sconnie said:

 

Stepping back away from my rambling, my guess is the Twins go to a 6 man bullpen 7 man rotation.

When was the last time the Twins had a 6 man bullpen? A 6 man bullpen is simply not workable in today's brand of baseball. 

That's the problem with the "piggy back" starter model. It chews up too many roster spots. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 2/4/2022 at 10:08 PM, cHawk said:

Questions for Discussion:

 

1. What do you think about the current state of the 2022 relief staff?
2. What do you think needs to happen for the 2022 relief staff to be competitive?
3. Do you think that these things can/will happen? Why or why not?

My response is based on the current 40 man, not my hopes for possible trades, fa signings, or ideas of stacking, starters, or the idea of no roles. (I think before you talk bullpen you have to establish a 5 man rotation.

Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Dobnak, and Winder or Stroman. (That leaves 8 other available slots.)

1. Rogers (31)

2. Alcala (26)

3. Duffey (31)

4. Thielbar (35)

5. Stashak (27)

6. Garza Jr (27)

7. Thorpe (he is out of options I believe)

8. Jax (he is so expendable, he can be the guy they abuse when things go bad, or an emergency starter)

That leave Cotton, fighting for one of the last 4 spots or possible 5th starter. 

Moran/Sands/Vallimont/Duran as a guys that splits time in AAA/Majors, (IMO this is one of the worst looking group of pitchers on a 40 man roster)

In reality Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Rogers, Alcala, Duran and Sands are really the only guys on this 40 man that I wouldn't have a problem trading, possibly cutting, or all out abusing.

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

When was the last time the Twins had a 6 man bullpen? A 6 man bullpen is simply not workable in today's brand of baseball. 

That's the problem with the "piggy back" starter model. It chews up too many roster spots. 

 

Yeah, but they’re backed into a corner unless they don’t have a bench

[chpettit19]

I think we see the most blurred line pitching staff in the history of the Twins this year. I think we see a bunch of 4 inning starts backed by 3 or 4 innings from another long guy and "true relievers" are filling very few roster spots. I think they almost completely ignore the "traditional starter" role and go with a staff full of once or twice through the order guys with 4 or 5 more traditional relievers and cycle guys between the majors and minors all year.

“We’re going to be as creative as we can be in terms of not being necessarily hemmed into the notion of it has to look exactly the way it has always looked. We may end up looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?”
-Thad Levine

And before people freak out too much about the Twins being crazy, the average American League start was 5.0 innings last year. 26.6% starts lasted no more than 4 innings. The Twins were at 4.9 and 26.5%. I think they lean into that even more this year. (Stole those numbers and the quote from Gleeman's mailbag yesterday on The Athletic)

[roger]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think we see the most blurred line pitching staff in the history of the Twins this year. I think we see a bunch of 4 inning starts backed by 3 or 4 innings from another long guy and "true relievers" are filling very few roster spots. I think they almost completely ignore the "traditional starter" role and go with a staff full of once or twice through the order guys with 4 or 5 more traditional relievers and cycle guys between the majors and minors all year.

“We’re going to be as creative as we can be in terms of not being necessarily hemmed into the notion of it has to look exactly the way it has always looked. We may end up looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?”
-Thad Levine

And before people freak out too much about the Twins being crazy, the average American League start was 5.0 innings last year. 26.6% starts lasted no more than 4 innings. The Twins were at 4.9 and 26.5%. I think they lean into that even more this year. (Stole those numbers and the quote from Gleeman's mailbag yesterday on The Athletic)

A few of you touched on it, but chepettit19 may have hit it out of the park.  We all are wondering why the Twins haven’t gone after more free agent starters?  Could it be they have no intention of doing so?

Levine hinted at this last fall.  Will their bullpen have five guys with four starters and four long relievers/starters coming in after four innings to pitch the 5th thru the 7th or into the 8th.  Could be interesting and would help with a team full of young guys with limited innings the past couple years.