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Josh Winder Could Be THE Twins Rookie Pitcher in 2022


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The Twins had two rookies in their rotation at the end of the 2021 season that have fans understandably excited. There was a third rookie who just missed a 2021 debut, that just might be the best of the three.

A 7th round pick in 2018, Josh Winder didn’t break into professional baseball at the top of Twins prospect lists. It would be understandable, in fact, if you hadn’t even heard his name until he really raised some eyebrows last spring.

Winder reportedly made a lot of good progress during the canceled 2020 Minor League season, but it’s entirely possible he would have debuted long ago without the interruption. After totaling just under 40 innings pitched in his debut 2018 season, he topped 125 innings in 2019 at Cedar Rapids with decent strikeout numbers as well as an impressive avoidance of walks and home runs in A ball.

2021 showed Winder was far from what you’d expect out of a 7th round draft pick. In 54 innings at AA his strikeout rate eclipsed 31%. He walked under 5% of his batters faced and posted a 0.82 HR/9. His ERA was under 2.

Upon his promotion to AAA, his strikeouts dropped a bit and home runs increased dramatically in a small sample before his season was cut short with shoulder fatigue. It was a disappointing end to 2021, especially for those hoping to see the 6’5 right-hander at Target Field by season’s end. Still, Winder showed enough to keep your eye on him in 2022.

Winder has built up his prospect status since his selection in the draft. Scouts give him a 55 future grade fastball with 50 grades for his slider, curveball, and changeup. His pitch mix shows a lot of promise when it comes to sticking in a rotation. He may not have quite the fastball command of Joe Ryan, but the depth of his pitches doesn’t make future bullpen arm concerns quite as obvious.

In regards to pitch mix, Winder matches up quite well with Bailey Ober who is deservedly receiving quite a bit of buzz headed into 2022. Winder has a superior fastball and slider, while Ober has a plus changeup and impeccable command as Twins fans saw in his 92 innings pitched last season.

Where Winder undoubtedly bests Ober, however, is his past body of work. The 125 innings in his second professional season were very encouraging. It’s a benchmark that Ober has yet to reach after throwing a career-high 108 innings in 2022 across AAA and the majors. Winder’s season-ending shoulder fatigue was likely just a result of so many innings after a year off, and his injury/durability concerns moving forward shouldn’t be as significant as Ober’s who’s dealt with his fair share of injuries already throughout his career.

Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober get a lot of love from Twins Territory, and rightfully so. There isn’t much substitution for watching a young arm succeed at the Major League level. It is important to remember that we were right on the edge of Josh Winder possibly being in the same conversation. For as good as Ryan and Ober might be, one could argue that Winder could be the more well-rounded of the trio when it comes to a future in an MLB rotation.

I’d put my money on Winder spending Opening Day in St. Paul. That being said, depending on how the Twins address the rest of the rotation it’s not impossible that Winder could win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. He’s the next man up when it comes to the Falvine pitching pipeline, and we likely won’t have to wait too long to see him in Minneapolis. 

He may not receive the attention of the Chase Pettys of the world, but Winder deserves a lot of credit for his meteoric rise from being a 7th round pick where even decent Minor League careers are far from the norm. Regardless of how the season goes, 2022 will be a fun year when it comes to the pitching pipeline. Expect to see Josh Winder as the first of many to stake their claim in the Twins future rotation.

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24 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would love to see him make it into the rotation.  Also Balazovic.  Can we possible get rid of the rule that makes them spend two months in the minors before they debut?  That would be one positive from the cba debates.

Changing the rule would assure small and mid market teams lose top players to the top 10 markets a year earlier.  Definitely good for the players and definitely good for those top revenue markets.  Bad for parity.  Bad for the game and definitely bad for the other 20 markets and the fans of those teams.  Every team has the option to ignore the year of service time.  When they elect to keep a player in the minors the 1st 6 weeks because the short-term gain is not worth the long-term loss.   

How would this be a good outcome?  

 

 

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Watched a lot of his starts on MiLB last summer.  He was dominant, leading me to believe he was the best pitcher in the organization.  Have been commenting about that since.  So glad to finally see someone else giving him some ink.  I thank you, I suspect he thanks you and I got a feeling it won't be long and the Twins will be thanking you.

 

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28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Changing the rule would assure small and mid market teams lose top players to the top 10 markets a year earlier.  Definitely good for the players and definitely good for those top revenue markets.  Bad for parity.  Bad for the game and definitely bad for the other 20 markets and the fans of those teams.  Every team has the option to ignore the year of service time.  When they elect to keep a player in the minors the 1st 6 weeks because the short-term gain is not worth the long-term loss.   

How would this be a good outcome?  

 

 

I want the best players on the team from day one unless you want to say that games in April and May do not count.  If a players is good the teams extend them.  How many players do we keep until they run out of their control years?  What if the player is hurt in the minors before we get him up?  We trade, sign, cut.  No I do not want the current rule and they can address these issues in a way that the best team leaves spring training intact.  

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11 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I want the best players on the team from day one unless you want to say that games in April and May do not count.  If a players is good the teams extend them.  How many players do we keep until they run out of their control years?  What if the player is hurt in the minors before we get him up?  We trade, sign, cut.  No I do not want the current rule and they can address these issues in a way that the best team leaves spring training intact.  

I agree with that, I guess the rule makes sense when you are bringing up younger prospects (20,21,22) but when the prospects are older the rule or teams keeping them in the minors seems weird, Winder is 25 for example, are teams really worried about that extra year when they are over 30?

I have read people say we should be trading Garver since he is already 31, and he won't hit FA until 2024.

Also if the poor teams really want to trade guys to get prospects, wouldn't it make sense to trade them during their prime to get better prospects in return?

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Winder is another good example of why I'm not too concerned about national prospect lists largely writing off our pitchers. I don't want to give the front office too much credit until we see more results, but it really feels like they've been able to spot and tap a lot of hidden potential in deeper draft picks.

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4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with that, I guess the rule makes sense when you are bringing up younger prospects (20,21,22) but when the prospects are older the rule or teams keeping them in the minors seems weird, Winder is 25 for example, are teams really worried about that extra year when they are over 30?

I have read people say we should be trading Garver since he is already 31, and he won't hit FA until 2024.

Also if the poor teams really want to trade guys to get prospects, wouldn't it make sense to trade them during their prime to get better prospects in return?

I would go through the list of pitchers posters here have insisted we should sign at all costs where the contracts would have started at age 30 or beyond and span 4-6 years but it would be a fair amount of work to come up with that laundry list.  Now, we should not care about keeping a pitcher in the age 31 season.  Darvish signed a 6 year deal starting his age 31 season.  Bumgarner signed for 5 years starting his age 30 season and the list of examples is very long.  Berrios has a contract starting at age 28 but that contract goes 4 seasons past his age 30 but that's good but keeping a different player past age 30 is bad?  It's really hard to follow the logic here.

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3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would love to see him make it into the rotation.  Also Balazovic.  Can we possible get rid of the rule that makes them spend two months in the minors before they debut?  That would be one positive from the cba debates.

To be fair the rules make it so they only need to keep them in the minors for 16 days, not 2 months. 2 months would be for super 2 status. But 16 days gains them an extra year. I agree it's a bad look, but for a league with the disparity in spending power like baseball has it's not too crazy to keep a guy down for 2 weeks. Especially a back end rotation guy who would make maybe 1 start in the majors in the first 2 weeks of a season.

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35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would go through the list of pitchers posters here have insisted we should sign at all costs where the contracts would have started at age 30 or beyond and span 4-6 years but it would be a fair amount of work to come up with that laundry list.  Now, we should not care about keeping a pitcher in the age 31 season.  Darvish signed a 6 year deal starting his age 31 season.  Bumgarner signed for 5 years starting his age 30 season and the list of examples is very long.  Berrios has a contract starting at age 28 but that contract goes 4 seasons past his age 30 but that's good but keeping a different player past age 30 is bad?  It's really hard to follow the logic here.

That isn't at all what I said, Maybe follow along to what I wrote instead of projecting.

Berrios made his major league debut at 22, Bumgarner at 19, and Darvish was signed out of Japan, and was not part of the 6 years rookie control.

If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me. Then I said if poor teams can't afford to sign any 31/32/33 pitcher to a expensive type contract, in theory wouldn't they get a better return for a 29/30 pitcher than a 31/32 year old pitcher?

Lets use a few pitchers as example, which pitcher do people think will cost the most in prospect capital? ( Bassitt, Montas)

Now it is not apples to apples because Montas has an extra year, so lets ask it this way which A's pitcher would return the best prospects, trading Montas (28) before this year or Bassitt (32) before last year.

 

 

 

 

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Yeah there are a lot of thing to like about Winder he was in Seth's top 5 for pitchers, His WHIP was elite at under 1 so command, control and ability to get outs appears MLB ready. Even his ERA sits at a shiny 2.61. He seemed to start to have issues when he was struck by a line drive in July and he was shut down not long after. He has pretty much been money since A ball and his velocity increase in 2020.  If healthy to start the season Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Strotman have the best chance to make the rotation as they pitched enough innings and appear to have the stuff to make it.  

Given that Balazovich still seems be in search in refining a third pitch and his WHIP being at 1.41 feels like there is some work to do there.  Strotman somewhat the same deal his WHIP\control is likely the only thing holding him back  He has the pitches and the velocity the command and control need to be better.  So I agree with OP I think Winder has the best chance to push his way into the starting rotation this year.  Cole Sands could also be in the mix I just don't know how I feel about him yet as a starter.  His numbers were comparable to Winders though so he is close as well but I still think Winder gets first crack.

With likely no spring training none of those guys will have a chance to make the team to start the season so they will have time to refine their stuff before getting their chance but all four could see time at the MLB level if they stay healthy.  Given what I have seen I like Winders chances the best.

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6 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah there are a lot of thing to like about Winder he was in Seth's top 5 for pitchers, His WHIP was elite at under 1 so command, control and ability to get outs appears MLB ready. Even his ERA sits at a shiny 2.61. He seemed to start to have issues when he was struck by a line drive in July and he was shut down not long after. He has pretty much been money since A ball and his velocity increase in 2020.  If healthy to start the season Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Strotman have the best chance to make the rotation as they pitched enough innings and appear to have the stuff to make it.  

Given that Balazovich still seems be in search in refining a third pitch and his WHIP being at 1.41 feels like there is some work to do there.  Strotman somewhat the same deal his WHIP\control is likely the only thing holding him back  He has the pitches and the velocity the command and control need to be better.  So I agree with OP I think Winder has the best chance to push his way into the starting rotation this year.  Cole Sands could also be in the mix I just don't know how I feel about him yet as a starter.  His numbers were comparable to Winders though so he is close as well but I still think Winder gets first crack.

With likely no spring training none of those guys will have a chance to make the team to start the season so they will have time to refine their stuff before getting their chance but all four could see time at the MLB level if they stay healthy.  Given what I have seen I like Winders chances the best.

And that is so sad, Dman., that spring training is going to be changed.  Unless they come to an agreement literally in the next few days, the start will be pushed back.  How long they keep pushing it out will determine whether the season starts on time, which is looking less likely every day.  And if it gets pushed back, do they play later into the fall, shorten the season, or what?

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13 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That isn't at all what I said, Maybe follow along to what I wrote instead of projecting.

Berrios made his major league debut at 22, Bumgarner at 19, and Darvish was signed out of Japan, and was not part of the 6 years rookie control.

If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me. Then I said if poor teams can't afford to sign any 31/32/33 pitcher to a expensive type contract, in theory wouldn't they get a better return for a 29/30 pitcher than a 31/32 year old pitcher?

Lets use a few pitchers as example, which pitcher do people think will cost the most in prospect capital? ( Bassitt, Montas)

Now it is not apples to apples because Montas has an extra year, so lets ask it this way which A's pitcher would return the best prospects, trading Montas (28) before this year or Bassitt (32) before last year.

Your assessment of the rule isn't all that accurate, though. The rule as currently written is that 172 days counts as a full year of service time. There are 187 days in the MLB year. So they have to hold a guy in the minors for 16 days during a year to save an entire season. The idea that they need to sacrifice the majority of an earlier age season to gain that extra year of control is false.

If they put Winder on the opening day roster he'd likely be the #5 starter since he's never pitched in the majors before. Here's the Twins first 16 days of the schedule (for now...)

Mar 31- Starter 1
Apr 1- Off Day
Apr 2- Starter 2
Apr 3- Starter 3
Apr 4- Starter 4
Apr 5- Starter 1 (keep him on his normal rest)
Apr 6- Starter 5
Apr 7- Starter 2 (keep him on his normal rest)
Apr 8- Off Day
Apr 9- Starter 3 (1 day extra rest)
Apr 10- Starter 1 (keep him on his normal rest)
Apr 11- Starter 4 (lots of extra rest)
Apr 12- Starter 2 (keep him on his normal rest)
Apr 13- Starter 5 (lots of extra rest)
Apr 14- Off Day
Apr 15- Starter 1 (keep him on his normal rest)

The question is whether having Winder (or whatever rookie) on the opening day roster so he can make 2 random starts in the first 16 days worth an entire extra year of his career when he's an established pitcher? I'd say no. I'd throw bullpen games on those 2 days. Especially since the second one has an off day immediately following it and the first one has an off day 2 days later.

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I agree with Nashville twin, there will be plenty of young pitchers used by Twins this year. I am high on Winder, was dominant at AA, fatigued when got to AAA. Hopefully healthy this year. I look for pitchers to be shuttled between AAA and Twins-Winder, Duran, Sands, Balazovic, Dobnak, and Strotman getting opportunities. None have built up arm to tolerate 150 IP next year. Time for these pitchers to see what they can do at MLB level. One may even be on opening day roster, but no guarantee they will stay for entire year. In response to article, WInder is my pick to have best year of pitching prospects yet to make MLB debut for Twins.

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21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your assessment of the rule isn't all that accurate, though. The rule as currently written is that 172 days counts as a full year of service time. There are 187 days in the MLB year.

 

what I said was and you quoted it -

"If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me'

And that is my opinion, others can certainly have their own opinion. We can debate all day how valuable having control over them the last year is, I just think it might be more important to hold back a guy to get that last year when they are 27, 28, 29, then it is when they are 31, 32, 33.

In your scenario, it would seem smart to not waste active roster spot on somebody that is going to pitch twice, which is also a different argument than keeping him down for they get an extra year at the end of his rookie deal.

We could create hypothetical all day, for example if the go to a hybrid or stacked strategy, he could pitch 5 times and have between 10- 15 innings in and the manager and FO could have a real good feel for him, but those are just hypothetical and mean nothing until the FO decides what is going to happen.

 

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8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

what I said was and you quoted it -

"If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me'

And that is my opinion, others can certainly have their own opinion. We can debate all day how valuable having control over them the last year is, I just think it might be more important to hold back a guy to get that last year when they are 27, 28, 29, then it is when they are 31, 32, 33.

In your scenario, it would seem smart to not waste active roster spot on somebody that is going to pitch twice, which is also a different argument than keeping him down for they get an extra year at the end of his rookie deal.

We could create hypothetical all day, for example if the go to a hybrid or stacked strategy, he could pitch 5 times and have between 10- 15 innings in and the manager and FO could have a real good feel for him, but those are just hypothetical and mean nothing until the FO decides what is going to happen.

 

Fair enough. I'll never understand why you'd trade 150-200 innings for 10-15, but to each their own.

As far as Winder himself goes I hope we can agree that he's got some exciting upside with that 4 pitch mix and I definitely want to see a bunch of him in Minneapolis next year!

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Winder has wonderful potential. He looks like he knows how to pitch and has some offerings that can get guys out at the MLB level. The real issue with Winder, and the reason he hasn't debuted yet, and why he might not start in the MLB rotation, is health. He didn't pitch after July 21 last year and only threw 72 innings.

Winder only threw 7 innings once last year. He did not exactly dominate upon promotion to AAA. I like his pitches and his makeup, and I think he could be a fine pitcher, but it's not going to be some tragedy or screw-job if he starts the season in AAA

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I have seen this kid live and on TV and he has impressed me with his stuff and his poise.  I add my name to those who are looking forward to seeing him at Target Field, whether that is at the start of the season or a few weeks in.  I think one of the most exciting things in baseball is watching the debut of a young starter or position player at the major league level.  It reminds us all that this is a great game and many young men are working their tails off to get to the bigs.

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7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

To be fair the rules make it so they only need to keep them in the minors for 16 days, not 2 months. 2 months would be for super 2 status. But 16 days gains them an extra year. I agree it's a bad look, but for a league with the disparity in spending power like baseball has it's not too crazy to keep a guy down for 2 weeks. Especially a back end rotation guy who would make maybe 1 start in the majors in the first 2 weeks of a season.

Just wanted to add to your post.

I think we all have to realize it's not only a potential service time matter. (Which I understand but dislike). Many times it's about ramping up a young player, or pitcher in this case. Throwing intermittently early on vs staying on a routine is an issue. When someone, Winder in this situation, comes up you want them confident, on a roll, and ready to STAY up hopefully. 

Right now it's debatable between Winder and Strotman as to who is first man up considering age and innings. I think Winder is going to be very good and part of the rotation at some point in 2022. And I can't wait to see him. But he's probably not going to pitch 150+ innings this year. And we will see plenty of the young guys throughout the season. 

But Winder, or anyone, getting a couple of starts to stay on course is much more important, IMO, than a projected service time issue that is years away and may be resolved by then anyway.

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Winder was highly scouted but lost velocity in his sophomore year at VMI. It resulted in him falling way down the draft ranks and the Twins picked him up in the 7th round. Most scouting reports on Winder are from draft time.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/josh-winder-comes-on-strong-at-instructs/

Since then, Winder has added 5mph to his fastball and improved his changeup due to the increased velocity alone. Plus his breaking pitches have supposedly gotten better. Winder could have 3 plus pitches at this point, and that's top of the rotation potential.

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Baseball America rates Winder as the Twins 6th best prospect. "His fastball  sits at 95 and touches 98. With grades of 60 for his slider and changeup, along with a 50 grade for 12-6 curveball."

Seems like pretty good stuff to follow 55 command. Considering his age and the way the seasons have turned out the past couple of years, I would prefer he uses his innings available this year for the Twins. He'll be a rookie so I would expect some failure but by the middle of the year we'll have a lot better idea.

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Excellent observation tony&rodney !!!  Spend a little money.  Make a good trade.  Starting Rotation issue SOLVED !  For 2022 and beyond.  And even with this pipe dream of ours coming true, there would still be PLENTY of opportunity to get other young pitchers innings.  I guess the only thing I would change in MY pipedream, is that I would spend the FA money on Trevor Story and solve my SS problem in the short and long term.  Montas heading the rotation would be enough for me.  I'd even overpay somewhat (Arraez and MORE) to open up more AB's and playing time for Miranda and/or Martin.  

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The Twins pitching prospects are really weird to me since it feels like there are so many high ceilings but each with a glaring red flag.  For Duran, Canterino, and Sands it's the health, for SWR and Strotman it's control, for Ryan and Winder it's the late breakout age, but Balazovic seems pretty clean although there could still be issues since prospects are tough. I'm hopeful since statistically we should get an ace and a couple #3s from a big group like that but we could come out empty and it's a little scary.

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