A Jake Odorizzi Reunion Would Benefit All Three Sides

[Nash Walker]

Jake Odorizzi made his mark on the Twins in just a few seasons, and a reunion with the right-hander would benefit all three sides. 

The Astros signed Odorizzi, 31, to a three-year deal following a rough, shortened 2020 season with the Twins. Odorizzi had bypassed free agency by accepting the qualifying offer from Minnesota in 2019, then spent much of 2020 injured. 

At that time, the Astros had much less certainty in their rotation. They hadn’t yet witnessed the breakouts of José Urquidy, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, or Lance McCullers, Jr. Add in Cristian Javier and a healthy Justin Verlander. That’s a crowded rotation, with Odorizzi on the outside looking in. 

Odorizzi owns a 4.49 ERA and 4.67 FIP in 118 1/3 innings since he started Game 3 of the 2019 ALDS at Target Field. His strikeout rate is down, he’s getting battered more often, and his splitter is getting bit. But Odorizzi still has an excellent four-seam fastball and an underutilized cutter. He also wasn't shy about his love for the Twins and the mound at Target Field. 

Right-handed hitters had little chance against Odorizzi in 2019, and he pitched very well at Target Field. With Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, José Abreu, and Franmil Reyes in the division, the Twins could use someone who has gotten them out before. 

Odorizzi is a luxury starter for Houston. A trade would benefit both him and the Twins and makes a ton of sense on the Astros side. Odorizzi is owed $8 million in 2022 and harnesses an $8.5 million player option for 2023. With the Twins valuing flexibility, you’ll be hard-pressed to find more. 

If Odorizzi were a free agent today, he’d probably sign a one-year deal in that same range. He needs to build back his value and re-establish mid-rotation status. Starting every fifth day for the Twins could provide that opportunity, with a chance for 2019-like success. Even if he stays within his career numbers, a 3.95 ERA and 105 ERA+, he’d instantly become the Twins’ most experienced and successful starter. 

MLB Trade Simulator values Odorizzi at negative-7.5, given his recent performance, health, and contract. If that’s the case, this deal should’ve happened before the lockout. 

There’s an argument that giving up anything for Odorizzi pales in comparison to just signing a bounce-back starter candidate in free agency. The difference: we’ve seen what Odorizzi can be for the Twins. At his best, he’s a fastball-heavy number three in a good rotation. 

It seems the Twins are keeping rotation spots open for their top pitching prospects to breakthrough. That’s all good and dandy, but you still need innings. If you’re unwilling to commit multiple years in free agency for quality starters, trade for a known person and player in Odorizzi. It benefits all three sides. 

For an idea of what a deal for Odorizzi could look like:

What do you think? Should the Twins trade for Jake Odorizzi? Comment below!

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[DJL44]

Sure, why not. Would the Astros be interested in some of our 40 man roster cuts? Stashak, Jax or Thorpe? Tyler Duffey for Odorizzi would also be fair. 

[Dman]

I get that this is what things have likely come to and while I don't hate the idea I don't love it either.  It sure seems like a move the Twins might make.  I would guess the return for Houston would have to be light to make it work for me.  Odo is still the same Odo who has trouble the third time through the order and he isn't getting any younger.  Yet here we are looking for innings eaters.  It could be a good play but has even greater potential to be a Happ like signing IMO.

Also I wouldn't be so sure that Houston will be willing to give up Odo that easily. They have some older arms on that team and we all know that you need about 8 to 10 starters just to get through a season.  If they re-sign Correa I could see them looking at dropping salary as much as possible but if they are not able to resign him then they should have the money to keep Odo if they want to. 

I don't find this scenario exciting but I can see it happening.

[USAFChief]

Yuk.

 

How does this benefit the Twins?

[Doctor Gast]

I was thinking the same thing Nash. I had put in a trade at BTV prior to your article.

HOU get Sano    BOS get  Arraez, Donaldson & Vallimont   Twins  get  Oddorizzi, Bogaerts & Bradley Jr.

This trade works out on the board but it still might not fly but I think Oddorizzi is still a good trade prospect. 

 

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I like the trades that Tom outlines in his video in this thread. Getting Snell and Odo and DeJong would solidify us for a few years while not breaking the bank.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

43 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Sure, why not. Would the Astros be interested in some of our 40 man roster cuts? Stashak, Jax or Thorpe? Tyler Duffey for Odorizzi would also be fair. 

Not The Duffman..  

[lukeduke1980]

I was against odorizzi but didn't realize he would only make 8 million.  He's okay i guess better than happ but similar to what Gant was doing.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Nash- I think you're getting too desperate to come up with a trade. Maybe we should take some advice from Kenny Rogers (the singer); "Know when to hold 'em."

[mikelink45]

No - never go backwards.  Move on - get better. 

[bean5302]

• It would benefit Houston's MLB team.
• It would benefit Houston's prospect system.
• It would benefit Jake Odorizzi because he's guaranteed to pitch no matter how badly he performs.

Those are 3 sides. Conversely.

• It would hurt Minnesota's prospect system
• It would hurt Minnesota's MLB team because Winder, Balazovic, Ober and Ryan are all better than Odorizzi
• It would hurt Minnesota's payroll because we'd be paying a player we don't want on the team.

[Ryan_K]

I'd like to get like a number 8 through 12 prospect that is not rule 5 soon tossed if we take on the contract. I want to buy some prospect capital, so if we are looking good we can make a mid season addition.

[se7799]

Those 4 will HOPEFULLY be better than Odo.  Unfortunately starting rotations need more than the 4 starters you named above. As stated above, we need 8+, especially if the top 4 have not pitched more than 200 mlb innings....combined

[jimbo92107]

With young guns like Ryan and Ober trying to get their fast balls up in the zone, a guy like Odo could provide them with useful tips and observations, while also providing an example how to use high heat to best advantage. 

[Brandon]

If the Twins trade for an Odorizzi and then for a Bassit type of pitcher then we would have room in the budget for Story at SS.  

[MGM4706]

No No No! Stop with the "Get by" options! Give some kid the experience!!

[miller761]

If you are talking to Houston ask about Christian Javier. Right now he is not in their 5 man rotation yet he pitched well when he did start for them last year. That would be something I would pursue rather than most any other options I have read.

[Rosterman]

Sadly, I would picture Odorizzi just getting cut at some point if he can't work out of the pen and if there is no spot for him in the rotation.

 

The Twins benefitted bigtime in 2020 with the shorten season and the need NOT to pay Odorizzi $19 million.

 

Is he worth $8 million a year for the next two seasons?

 

Maybe.

 

But I see a guy who would be hard-pressed to pitch 150 innings. And he can't seem, to get out of the fifth inning and into the 6th with any consistency. Maybve this is a guy that gives you the best results if you have an opener pitching to the first 4-6 batters in a game.

 

But trading anyone of value? No. And not sure the Astros need to take a Thorpe or Rooker or anyone else on the fringe of our "need to play" or "need to protect soon" or we lose them forever and ever guys.

[Seansy]

I like the idea of targeting Odorizzi. The only FA starters I'm interested in are Rodon, Pineda, Kikuchi, and maybe Greinke. That's not a lot of starters given how many teams need pitching still. Since Odo is basically a salary dump for Houston we could probably get him for a PTBNL AND Houston would pay down some of his salary too. Given how much he enjoyed pitching here that counts as a win-win in my book. Other trade targets for SP for me include Kyle Freeland and Elieser Hernandez. I also like Tom's suggested 3 team trade idea.

[Stew]

I agree with getting him back. I didn't want to see him go. 8 million is not that bad . That's probably what we would give penada.the two would be 16 million. Leaving us at least that much more to spend on one or two players. It doesn't hurt our young pitchers. We only have 3 starters at this point. How many years has this team went were we don't have starter or 2 injured? I also would like to see rodon in a twins uniform.

 

[Karbo]

I can see a trade working out depending of course on who we trade back. I think Odo still has some value, and I have more faith in him at this point than Bundy.

[old nurse]

If Houston had a sense of humor it would be a straight up trade for Placios

[blindeke]

This is the kind of trade we should be making, taking on salary and not giving up too much.

[ashbury]

I found Odo admirable in his prime, but that is in the past.  I would not count on him to be available for 32 starts, nor for much more than 5 innings per game, nor for above-average performance in those innings.

"We're getting the band back together" kinds of moves don't usually work out.

[jmlease1]

I'm not opposed to bringing back Odo to eat up some innings while the young guys find their footing, I guess? A rotation of Pineda, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, and Odorizzi isn't going to make anyone leap out of their chair, but if it means that there's enough room in the budget to sign Story, then I say Faster Pussycat, Kill, Kill.

If it's a choice between Pineda and Odorizzi, I take Pineda every time. If acquiring Odo means giving up a real prospect, then F no. If adding Odo means we won't make a run at Story...I'd rather make a run at Story.

[Johnny Ringo]

I love the Twins, but the FO doesn't love us back much. Does all of this noodling feel a little like desperation? The Pohlads, for all the grief they get (some deserved, some not) were good to their people during COVID. It feels like they are in the mode to get some of their money back. I know many will chuckle or spit-up at that statement. There is nothing to indicate they will open their wallet for Story. A slew of really good shortstops signed, by modern standards, at reasonable prices prior to the lock-out. You didn't hear a peep that the Twins were in the hunt for any of them.

The Astros don't seem particularly budget conscious. I'm sure Odo is available at a price, but it will be one undoubtedly rich in prospect terms.