Discuss: 2022 Rotation

[Finlander]

Several of the pitching prospects dealt with arm injuries in the minors last year, so I can't see counting on them right away in a major league rotation. Throwing all the kids out there this year could waste a year of a good and proven offensive lineup. Rotation help is needed from elsewhere to fill at least 2 slots. We don't yet have the major league pitching horsepower to keep the team afloat, much less competitive. I'm not a fan of the "throw all the prospects into the rotation and see what sticks" approach. I'd like to see some healthy dominance from them in AAA first.

Dobnak will also have to factor into the staff somehow. The Twins had signed him to a 4 year deal and I suspect they will give him every opportunity to justify that investment, whether as a starter or a bulk guy/long reliever.

[cHawk]

22 minutes ago, Finlander said:

Several of the pitching prospects dealt with arm injuries in the minors last year, so I can't see counting on them right away in a major league rotation. Throwing all the kids out there this year could waste a year of a good and proven offensive lineup. Rotation help is needed from elsewhere to fill at least 2 slots. We don't yet have the major league pitching horsepower to keep the team afloat, much less competitive. I'm not a fan of the "throw all the prospects into the rotation and see what sticks" approach. I'd like to see some healthy dominance from them in AAA first.

Dobnak will also have to factor into the staff somehow. The Twins had signed him to a 4 year deal and I suspect they will give him every opportunity to justify that investment, whether as a starter or a bulk guy/long reliever.

Not necessarily. He only makes $2M/year, so if he sucks he isn’t that much of a burden on the team. Not a Dobnak fan at all but he was injured last year, so maybe they could get some production out of him this year (if he’s healthy)

[RJA]

On 1/31/2022 at 12:58 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd put my money on them bringing back Pineda and signing maybe one more Bundy/Pineda type. I don't see them making any trades for the types of arms people are asking for. Maybe instead of the 2nd Bundy/Pineda signing they do a Maeda or Odo type move. But I don't see them spending big money or making a big trade before the season. And I'm good with that.

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects is the answer to the rotation question from here on out. They'll have enough "veteran" guys to start the year and delay service time on all their arms, but we'll get a look at half a dozen or more starting pitcher prospects this year. Some will end up as bullpen guys (I still think Duran has BP written all over him), but I think they'll go "creative" this year. We'll see a whole bunch of young guys getting piggy back starts with each guy expected to get through the order 1+ times before turning it over to the pen. As guys separate themselves they'll get more leash and get more innings, but they're all going to be limited on innings outside of maybe Ober or Ryan. I don't think we can frame this conversation in a 5 man rotation sort of way. Don't think we'll be seeing that this year.

So to answer your questions:
1. 5 man rotation wise it's a disaster. Bigger picture it's a gigantic question mark.
2. Creative use of youngsters who show they're ready for the majors.
3. Cycle through everyone who shows they're ready without having to DFA any young guys before they get a real shot to establish themselves.
4. I think they'll get guys through, but whether or not that makes them competitive is a complete unknown.

I think this is an insightful comment.  I don't think the Twins will make any huge trade moves either, and I agree they will likely add Pineda.   There are two ways to build a contender that has staying power.  One is to add a lot of free agents and spend at the top of the luxury tax level while also doing your best to develop some young stars.  The Yankees, Dodgers and other big market teams do this.  The other is to follow the Rays and Guardians model, and develop your own pitching in house, thereby giving yourself 5-6 years worth of control, and then possibly trading some--like Snell, Bauer and others--to get more young prospects or to fill holes in the roster.  It is clear the Twins are following the second model.  That is why they traded Berrios.  I think it makes no sense to trade young talent for 1 or 2 years of a starting pitcher UNLESS you think you have a real chance to get to the playoffs and have some level of success.  I will never understand why the FO didn't move more decisively to add talent after the 19 and 20 years as it looked like they had potential to make some noise.  That was a mistake.  But why add a pitcher for 2 years now given the fact that they are likely a couple of years away from making the playoffs and advancing?  Ryan and Ober had good years, but they are not established.  We will really find out what we have in these two this summer.  Bundy is a lottery ticket.  After that, it gets real cloudy.  What will one starter for two years do for us, especially if it costs a Duran, Martin, or Cannterino, or two of them?  At this point, I would look at this year as a rebuilding year, and if we were to find ourselves in the hunt by July, look to add pieces at the deadline.  Had the Twins added Robbie Ray for 5 years, I would look at it differently.  In that case, adding Castillo or Montes along with Pineda would make sense.  But they didn't.  So, this is a year to see what the young kids can do. If a couple shine, look to add established talent for 23. Just my humble opinion.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

But overall fans prefer to show up for wins.

My strategy with stacking "starters" this year would be 1 guy is set to be the starter that day and the other knows he's starting the 5th. Allows him to do his normal pre-game (now mid-game) routine and start in a clean inning. He takes over as if the score is 0-0 and he's out there to do his normal starter thing. If the starter struggles and can't get through 4 a normal bullpen guy closes the gap. It's not great to pull the starter after the 4th if he's cruising, but they did it with Ober last year and now he's setup to throw a more normal starters load this year. With all the injuries we saw last year I'm good with taking a year to build buys back up while also getting them real MLB experience. Not ideal, but I don't think it's terrible either.

Kinda agree with fans showing up for wins, if the opening day line up is what some are suggesting, fans and wins might be hard to come by. And with the restrictions currently in MPLS there may be less fans than ever. I know plenty of people that are vaccinated that won't go any place they have to show their card (now if the Twins are winning and looking good I bet they might change their mind, but if they are losing they will probably even be more adamant)

The strategy of stacking isn't a bad one, but can go bad quickly if both of the starters are bad and you tax the bullpen, and it if starts happening more than expected things could go real bad. They will have to be prepared almost every game a young guy goes out there to bridge the gap.

Also, I don't see the Twins doing a 4/4/1 strategy, there is no way they are leaving a rookie pitcher out there in the 7th or 8th in a one run game when they have Duffey, Rogers or whoever else might be pitching really well. So it may have to be highly thought of prospect starting going 4 and a lesser one starting the 5th and 6th and possibly 7th if there are pitching well, or it isn't a tight game.

[Thegrin]

I think it will be Ober and... pray for rain, snow, sleet and hail.  I don't expect  Ryan to be strong out of the gate.  Teams now have film on him and I expect hitters will be better prepared for his deceptive delivery. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's not hard at all. Have rules, follow them. Trust your strategy.

That is super easy to do when things go as planned, but what happens if they Twins are consistently giving up 3,4,5 inning in a 4 inning or less start? (That happened in a 1/3 of Ober's start for example, only one of Ryan's to be fair.)

I am not saying this isn't the right or possibly the only strategy the Twins have.

Plus the team might have to come out and say this is the plan and why (the people on this site understand) but there are way more fans of the Twins not on a site like this then there are on it. They will look genius if they do this and it works, but man if it doesn't there will be call for their heads on a plate.

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That is super easy to do when things go as planned, but what happens if they Twins are consistently giving up 3,4,5 inning in a 4 inning or less start? (That happened in a 1/3 of Ober's start for example, only one of Ryan's to be fair.)

I am not saying this isn't the right or possibly the only strategy the Twins have.

Plus the team might have to come out and say this is the plan and why (the people on this site understand) but there are way more fans of the Twins not on a site like this then there are on it. They will look genius if they do this and it works, but man if it doesn't there will be call for their heads on a plate.

How is that different than when it happens with a regular starter? 

[Blyleven2011]

1 . Pitching is in shambles not knowing who's going to fill the complete rotation ,,, Ryan and ober are inexperienced and bundy is bundy ... dobnik is at least starting on rotation if he shows something in spring training , whenever that will be  ,

pitching has been in shambles for along time , but now we will see the prospects we have heard so much about , which ones I will not speculate  , see # ....

2.  Add a free agent in left hander rodon ,, take a chance , he's a much needed left hander

3. Rodon as free agent and minor leaguers that show their stuff in spring training  , whenever that will be  ...

4 . What will happen  will happen  .....

Disaster in 2021 , they never had a true proven replacement for leftfielder Rosario leaving ....

They let go of 2 utility player and had people all season playing out of positions and had one of the worst defensive season in the league or probably in twins history  ..

They did not acquire any top quality ( ace , studs or bulldogs ) pitching  ,,, happ being a left hander  was the only one I could approve but for some reason after starting out good and then things went horribly wrong for him , ( might be the shoemaker syndrome  ) , happ did leave and had better starts for st Louis...

Just my observation on the eye test 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Kinda agree with fans showing up for wins, if the opening day line up is what some are suggesting, fans and wins might be hard to come by. And with the restrictions currently in MPLS there may be less fans than ever. I know plenty of people that are vaccinated that won't go any place they have to show their card (now if the Twins are winning and looking good I bet they might change their mind, but if they are losing they will probably even be more adamant)

The strategy of stacking isn't a bad one, but can go bad quickly if both of the starters are bad and you tax the bullpen, and it if starts happening more than expected things could go real bad. They will have to be prepared almost every game a young guy goes out there to bridge the gap.

Also, I don't see the Twins doing a 4/4/1 strategy, there is no way they are leaving a rookie pitcher out there in the 7th or 8th in a one run game when they have Duffey, Rogers or whoever else might be pitching really well. So it may have to be highly thought of prospect starting going 4 and a lesser one starting the 5th and 6th and possibly 7th if there are pitching well, or it isn't a tight game.

I guess I'm confused as to how any of this is different than a "normal" rotation. If you starter goes pear shaped in any situation you need to use your bullpen more. In the stacking situation you don't need to cover 8 more innings with the pen if your starter is trash in the first you need to cover 3 more.

Your arguments sound far more like "young pitchers just can't be trusted, don't use them" than "stacking starters is dangerous." They need to be prepared every game any pitcher goes out there to bridge a gap. At this point you're just saying they should have no faith in their prospects to be useful at all. I don't know how else to read "they will have to be prepared almost every game a young guy goes out there to bridge the gap."

They can certainly take the second pitcher out in the 8th if they'd like. What is stopping them? But they also have the chance to not put Rogers in back to back games where he's proven to be absolutely terrible if they have the luxury of having 2 guys cover the first 7 or 8 innings. If the second pitcher in the pairing only throws 2 innings then he gets the start next time when he'll be even fresher and the guy who threw 4 innings takes the second spot and maybe only throws 2 or 3 innings or maybe he throws 4 or 5. Nothing is stopping them from altering when they throw relievers or how many innings each guy throws. Starting the second guy in the 5th is to give a typical starter the chance to do his normal warmup and give him a better chance for success. Beyond that they can do whatever they want. Nothing stopping them.

Stacking starters takes pressure off the entire staff. They all need to be successful for shorter stints and you get more rest for the pen. The Braves just won the world series by doing very similar stuff while they beat an Astros team that had their starters average about 3 innings a start. It's not a crazy, or even new, idea. Provides more flexibility for the entire staff.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess I'm confused as to how any of this is different than a "normal" rotation. If you starter goes pear shaped in any situation you need to use your bullpen more. In the stacking situation you don't need to cover 8 more innings with the pen if your starter is trash in the first you need to cover 3 more.

Your arguments sound far more like "young pitchers just can't be trusted, don't use them" than "stacking starters is dangerous." They need to be prepared every game any pitcher goes out there to bridge a gap. At this point you're just saying they should have no faith in their prospects to be useful at all. I don't know how else to read "they will have to be prepared almost every game a young guy goes out there to bridge the gap."

They can certainly take the second pitcher out in the 8th if they'd like. What is stopping them? But they also have the chance to not put Rogers in back to back games where he's proven to be absolutely terrible if they have the luxury of having 2 guys cover the first 7 or 8 innings. If the second pitcher in the pairing only throws 2 innings then he gets the start next time when he'll be even fresher and the guy who threw 4 innings takes the second spot and maybe only throws 2 or 3 innings or maybe he throws 4 or 5. Nothing is stopping them from altering when they throw relievers or how many innings each guy throws. Starting the second guy in the 5th is to give a typical starter the chance to do his normal warmup and give him a better chance for success. Beyond that they can do whatever they want. Nothing stopping them.

Stacking starters takes pressure off the entire staff. They all need to be successful for shorter stints and you get more rest for the pen. The Braves just won the world series by doing very similar stuff while they beat an Astros team that had their starters average about 3 innings a start. It's not a crazy, or even new, idea. Provides more flexibility for the entire staff.

I guess what I was saying, no matter the 3/3 or 4/4, if the first pitcher doesn't do the required 3 or 4, you are playing two ends of the relief pitcher game. In the 3/3 if the first pitcher goes 1, then you to use RP pitcher(s) just to get to the 4th, you aren't bringing in the second guy early because that isn't the strategy, then at the end you are doing the same to get to the end of the game. Or lets say they are doing the 4/4 and the first guys does great for 3 innings and the Twins are up 1 -0 or 2-0, and in the 4th the starter gets an out but a couple of guys get on, don't they have to play that 2/3 like it is the end of the game and bring in a good RP to get the last two outs and not the last pitcher off the bench? I don't know the answers to these that is why I am asking.

As for trusting young pitchers have the Twins shown at all that they do? Who is the last young pitcher that has gotten more than a couple hold opportunities in the last few years?  So in a 4/4 the second guy is almost never going to get 4 innings in. So what we are really talking about is a 3/3 or more of a hybrid model like Major League Ready has talked about.

Also I think it is different than the normal starter, in that if your starter had a short start you hopefully have a long guy that can go 3 or more innings if they were having a good day, you don't have to play every inning like it is the playoffs.

I will repeat I am not against this idea, I am just bringing up scenarios that might make it hard to stick to it and thus make it look like the FO doesn't really have a plan. If you stack you stack, you tell the second pitcher what inning they will be starting and let them prepare for that inning like it is the start of a game for them, you don't jack these pitchers around and say OK, your up second be prepared for it to be at anytime, that is what relief pitchers are for. Unless the plan is to put the second tier guys in the second spot, the ones they don't think will ever be starters anyway, Dobnak, Jax, Strotman or whoever they think they are, because in all reality they are just trying to get the studs some innings without blowing up their arms or confidence.

I pitched in high school and college and I can tell you, starting pitchers and relief pitchers have different routines to get ready.

 

One more reason I think it will be hard to fully stick to this strategy is if they truly want to get a few of these pitchers to 120 or so innings, that is 30 starts of 4 innings, or less starts and more innings a start, thus making it hard to stick to this strategy.  They can't let guys that are being Ober type successful not pitch; and go out and make 20 starts and pitch 60 innings, if these rookies are pitching like Ober did last year they have to let them get to the amount of innings they are hoping that get to. (I am guessing each pitcher will be different)

Sorry to be long winded, but it seems that maybe the Twins let Bundy, Ober, and Ryan be more of a traditional 5,6 innings starters, and start the season with the other two spots doing a 3/3 with a Winder/Jax and Sands or Strotman/Dobnak, and the ones that do well you move to 4 inning type start, the others either go to the bullpen or down to the minors to get their innings.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I guess what I was saying, no matter the 3/3 or 4/4, if the first pitcher doesn't do the required 3 or 4, you are playing two ends of the relief pitcher game. In the 3/3 if the first pitcher goes 1, then you to use RP pitcher(s) just to get to the 4th, you aren't bringing in the second guy early because that isn't the strategy, then at the end you are doing the same to get to the end of the game. Or lets say they are doing the 4/4 and the first guys does great for 3 innings and the Twins are up 1 -0 or 2-0, and in the 4th the starter gets an out but a couple of guys get on, don't they have to play that 2/3 like it is the end of the game and bring in a good RP to get the last two outs and not the last pitcher off the bench? I don't know the answers to these that is why I am asking.

As for trusting young pitchers have the Twins shown at all that they do? Who is the last young pitcher that has gotten more than a couple hold opportunities in the last few years?  So in a 4/4 the second guy is almost never going to get 4 innings in. So what we are really talking about is a 3/3 or more of a hybrid model like Major League Ready has talked about.

Also I think it is different than the normal starter, in that if your starter had a short start you hopefully have a long guy that can go 3 or more innings if they were having a good day, you don't have to play every inning like it is the playoffs.

I will repeat I am not against this idea, I am just bringing up scenarios that might make it hard to stick to it and thus make it look like the FO doesn't really have a plan. If you stack you stack, you tell the second pitcher what inning they will be starting and let them prepare for that inning like it is the start of a game for them, you don't jack these pitchers around and say OK, your up second be prepared for it to be at anytime, that is what relief pitchers are for. Unless the plan is to put the second tier guys in the second spot, the ones they don't think will ever be starters anyway, Dobnak, Jax, Strotman or whoever they think they are, because in all reality they are just trying to get the studs some innings without blowing up their arms or confidence.

I pitched in high school and college and I can tell you, starting pitchers and relief pitchers have different routines to get ready.

 

One more reason I think it will be hard to fully stick to this strategy is if they truly want to get a few of these pitchers to 120 or so innings, that is 30 starts of 4 innings, or less starts and more innings a start, thus making it hard to stick to this strategy.  They can't let guys that are being Ober type successful not pitch; and go out and make 20 starts and pitch 60 innings, if these rookies are pitching like Ober did last year they have to let them get to the amount of innings they are hoping that get to. (I am guessing each pitcher will be different)

Sorry to be long winded, but it seems that maybe the Twins let Bundy, Ober, and Ryan be more of a traditional 5,6 innings starters, and start the season with the other two spots doing a 3/3 with a Winder/Jax and Sands or Strotman/Dobnak, and the ones that do well you move to 4 inning type start, the others either go to the bullpen or down to the minors to get their innings.

Oh, yes, I'm not suggesting they go stacked guys for all 5 rotation spots. It's more about being flexible with the arms and rotation spots. Ober and Ryan need to be given much more leash and treated as "true starters." Bundy and Pineda (or someone like him if they bring them in) same thing. But the young guys will start in the minors and have innings there. Then be asked to get major league innings as well. I don't think we can expect anyone who hasn't debuted yet to get 100 plus major league innings this year. Well not more than 1 or 2 of them at least. They'll get minor league innings so their major league innings would be lower.

I still just disagree with the idea that stacking pitchers changes the bullpen scenario and stresses it anymore. If you have guys in your pen you can't trust to reasonably get you through the 4th inning you're screwed anyways. Don't need to use Rogers or Duffey types then. Could if you want. No reason you couldn't throw Duffey in the 4th and Rogers in the 9th. But If you're wanting/expecting 7 or 8 out of your stacked starters I don't see why you couldn't use Stashak, Alcala, Thielbar, etc. type pitchers in the 4th and still feel comfortable with being able to cover the end of the game.

[Glenn 718]

I am sick of seeing the Twins get a bunch of pitchers who are over the hill and not able to even be .500.  Let's give some young guys a shot, throw them in the deep end of the pool and see if they sink or swim.  This philosophy is not working and it's hard to watch.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, yes, I'm not suggesting they go stacked guys for all 5 rotation spots. It's more about being flexible with the arms and rotation spots. Ober and Ryan need to be given much more leash and treated as "true starters." Bundy and Pineda (or someone like him if they bring them in) same thing. But the young guys will start in the minors and have innings there. Then be asked to get major league innings as well. I don't think we can expect anyone who hasn't debuted yet to get 100 plus major league innings this year. Well not more than 1 or 2 of them at least. They'll get minor league innings so their major league innings would be lower.

I still just disagree with the idea that stacking pitchers changes the bullpen scenario and stresses it anymore. If you have guys in your pen you can't trust to reasonably get you through the 4th inning you're screwed anyways. Don't need to use Rogers or Duffey types then. Could if you want. No reason you couldn't throw Duffey in the 4th and Rogers in the 9th. But If you're wanting/expecting 7 or 8 out of your stacked starters I don't see why you couldn't use Stashak, Alcala, Thielbar, etc. type pitchers in the 4th and still feel comfortable with being able to cover the end of the game.

There are many possible scenarios if traditional roles and traditional practices are jettisoned.  If the stacked or "hybrid" pitchers can't give you 3-4 innings each the game is in jeopardy no matter how the BP is used.  When they deliver as expected, the number of IPs and number of RPs is less than or equal to 5-6 inning SP.  The goal for stacked or "hybrid" pitchers should deliver 7 or maybe even 8 IPs between them.  The 2nd guy can be left in for the 8th if you have a 3 or more run game or just because he is pitching well.  The old practice of brining in the 7th and 8th inning guy when the game is anywhere near close needs to be adjusted.  Of course, the relative recent demand on the BP should play into the decision as well.  They can be used more liberally if the demand on them has been light or normal.  New strategies require a different mindset and different practices.  

A big part of the Rays success is that everyone in the organization is on board.  Cohesion is always an important element in any organization and even more so when the organization is transitioning to a new strategy and implementing new practices. 

[bean5302]

On 2/3/2022 at 12:01 PM, Finlander said:

Several of the pitching prospects dealt with arm injuries in the minors last year, so I can't see counting on them right away in a major league rotation. Throwing all the kids out there this year could waste a year of a good and proven offensive lineup. Rotation help is needed from elsewhere to fill at least 2 slots. We don't yet have the major league pitching horsepower to keep the team afloat, much less competitive. I'm not a fan of the "throw all the prospects into the rotation and see what sticks" approach. I'd like to see some healthy dominance from them in AAA first.

Dobnak will also have to factor into the staff somehow. The Twins had signed him to a 4 year deal and I suspect they will give him every opportunity to justify that investment, whether as a starter or a bulk guy/long reliever.

Several of them, but not the ones who are closest to MLB.

This isn't throw all the prospects into the rotation and see what sticks. This is put 2 prospects who have dominated the upper minors into the 2 open rotation spots and rely upon the depth arms like Dobnak, Strotman and Jax if needed rather than log-jamming all the talent behind broken down retreads when the Twins aren't going to compete anyway.

Either the Twins are going to be a team who builds through prospects or a team which builds through top name free agents. We know for a fact the Twins are not the latter. So if the Twins are going to build through prospects, they need to be willing to put prospects onto the MLB club. Ryan and Ober proved the validity of rotation arms coming up from the minors last year.

[notoriousgod71]

On 2/3/2022 at 1:21 PM, Thegrin said:

I think it will be Ober and... pray for rain, snow, sleet and hail.  I don't expect  Ryan to be strong out of the gate.  Teams now have film on him and I expect hitters will be better prepared for his deceptive delivery. 

Some may be praying for rain, snow, sleet, and hail when Ober pitches as well.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 2/3/2022 at 12:25 PM, cHawk said:

Not necessarily. He only makes $2M/year, so if he sucks he isn’t that much of a burden on the team. Not a Dobnak fan at all but he was injured last year, so maybe they could get some production out of him this year (if he’s healthy)

It’s the roster spot. He’s filling a 40 man spot though mid-season no matter what. They won’t DFA him until they absolutely have to, and even if they get Grienke and Pineda, they’ll be running the AAAA shuttle to fill out the 200-300 innings out of 1500ish innings for a 162 game season.

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 2/3/2022 at 10:47 AM, RJA said:

I think this is an insightful comment.  I don't think the Twins will make any huge trade moves either, and I agree they will likely add Pineda.   There are two ways to build a contender that has staying power.  One is to add a lot of free agents and spend at the top of the luxury tax level while also doing your best to develop some young stars.  The Yankees, Dodgers and other big market teams do this.  The other is to follow the Rays and Guardians model, and develop your own pitching in house, thereby giving yourself 5-6 years worth of control, and then possibly trading some--like Snell, Bauer and others--to get more young prospects or to fill holes in the roster.  It is clear the Twins are following the second model.  That is why they traded Berrios.  I think it makes no sense to trade young talent for 1 or 2 years of a starting pitcher UNLESS you think you have a real chance to get to the playoffs and have some level of success.  I will never understand why the FO didn't move more decisively to add talent after the 19 and 20 years as it looked like they had potential to make some noise.  That was a mistake.  But why add a pitcher for 2 years now given the fact that they are likely a couple of years away from making the playoffs and advancing?  Ryan and Ober had good years, but they are not established.  We will really find out what we have in these two this summer.  Bundy is a lottery ticket.  After that, it gets real cloudy.  What will one starter for two years do for us, especially if it costs a Duran, Martin, or Cannterino, or two of them?  At this point, I would look at this year as a rebuilding year, and if we were to find ourselves in the hunt by July, look to add pieces at the deadline.  Had the Twins added Robbie Ray for 5 years, I would look at it differently.  In that case, adding Castillo or Montes along with Pineda would make sense.  But they didn't.  So, this is a year to see what the young kids can do. If a couple shine, look to add established talent for 23. Just my humble opinion.

I think you're analysis is spot on but I come to a different conclusion on whether the Twins could should make a certain kind of trade. I think there are some quality arms out there we can get by trading our better/best hitting prospects without trading good pitching prospects. I think the Twins have enough hitting in the system that they can afford to trade that and I think they have enough money in the budget they can afford to extend 1 of the top 3 from Oakland, Cincinnati or Miami on a $20 million-$25 million a year contract.

I think the best thing the Twins could do is trade for a solid number 2 starter. I don't think they should be afraid to give up a high-end prospect like even Miranda, Lewis or Martin in conjunction with a Strotman type to do so IF they can work out an extension with that pitcher that will keep him in Minnesota for at least 3 seasons, ideally 4. If you believe MLB trade Simulator, Miranda or Martin gets you Bassitt plus, Maneaa, or Montas if you add a little, Sonny Gray from the Reds (takes both to get Mahle), or Sanchez from the Marlins (takes both to get Lopez). Put in Lewis, same result. Larnach, need to add a little more but not a lot. To me, that's the kind of trade we should be looking at. Trade from your younger controllable excess - hitting - for controllable and hopefully youngish need - starting pitching. If you can't do that, no trade and then your plan is the way to go. 

[Einheri]

Twins are betting on the season not starting until July 4th.

[RJA]

58 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think you're analysis is spot on but I come to a different conclusion on whether the Twins could should make a certain kind of trade. I think there are some quality arms out there we can get by trading our better/best hitting prospects without trading good pitching prospects. I think the Twins have enough hitting in the system that they can afford to trade that and I think they have enough money in the budget they can afford to extend 1 of the top 3 from Oakland, Cincinnati or Miami on a $20 million-$25 million a year contract.

I think the best thing the Twins could do is trade for a solid number 2 starter. I don't think they should be afraid to give up a high-end prospect like even Miranda, Lewis or Martin in conjunction with a Strotman type to do so IF they can work out an extension with that pitcher that will keep him in Minnesota for at least 3 seasons, ideally 4. If you believe MLB trade Simulator, Miranda or Martin gets you Bassitt plus, Maneaa, or Montas if you add a little, Sonny Gray from the Reds (takes both to get Mahle), or Sanchez from the Marlins (takes both to get Lopez). Put in Lewis, same result. Larnach, need to add a little more but not a lot. To me, that's the kind of trade we should be looking at. Trade from your younger controllable excess - hitting - for controllable and hopefully youngish need - starting pitching. If you can't do that, no trade and then your plan is the way to go. 

Great comment.  I would have no trouble parting with a top prospect if the Twins could land a Castillo for example if they can extend them.  I am just opposed to trading for short term assets when the Twins have no history of signing free agent pitchers, their own included.  Plus, I think it would take two significant pitching additions to make the Twins contenders, so even Castillo would not be enough in my humble opinion.  But, if they are convinced that Rodon is healthy (a big question in my mind), and sign him, trade for a Castillo type, extend him, and can add a Pineda type, then I am all in.  I just don't see that happening.  I hope I am wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

45 minutes ago, RJA said:

Great comment.  I would have no trouble parting with a top prospect if the Twins could land a Castillo for example if they can extend them.  I am just opposed to trading for short term assets when the Twins have no history of signing free agent pitchers, their own included.  Plus, I think it would take two significant pitching additions to make the Twins contenders, so even Castillo would not be enough in my humble opinion.  But, if they are convinced that Rodon is healthy (a big question in my mind), and sign him, trade for a Castillo type, extend him, and can add a Pineda type, then I am all in.  I just don't see that happening.  I hope I am wrong.

excellent post.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It’s no secret that the Twins rotation has holes.

2021 was a career year for Rodon, but he ended the season on the Il and the White Sox did not extend him.

Is Rodon worth the risk and should the Twins sign him? What might the alternatives be to not sign him?