Discuss: 2022 Rotation

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are you assuming the Twins starters are pitching complete games every game? That's going to be a hard standard to meet...

Sorry if you assumed I meant starters were going to complete every game. I meant there is about 1458 innings in a season.

The Twins have 3 starters, and Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Garza Jr, Jax, Rogers, Stashak, Theilbar, Throrpe, if they each pitch 75 (675), they are still short quite a bit of innings.

 

 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Sorry if you assumed I meant starters were going to complete every game. I meant there is about 1458 innings in a season.

The Twins have 3 starters, and Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Garza Jr, Jax, Rogers, Stashak, Theilbar, Throrpe, if they each pitch 75 (675), they are still short quite a bit of innings.

 

 

I didn't actually assume that, was just having a little fun.

I agree there's a lot of innings that still need to be accounted for.

[Dave The Dastardly]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's not so much about arm troubles as it is about effectiveness 2 or 3 times through a batting order. The analytics they're going off aren't about arm injuries, they're about effectively getting outs. All of that with the caveat of a missed season in 2020 limiting pitch counts/innings in 2021.

Thanks for the clarification. But if a young (rookie?) pitcher is never allowed to pitch 3 times through the batting order how do we know he's not effectively (not sure how an effective out differs from a regular out) getting outs on the 3rd round? Or are all pitchers automatically assumed to be unable to pitch that 3rd round? If so does this mean all pitchers are essentially considered "long relievers" nowadays and "starting pitcher" designations are no longer significant? In which case why would the team be looking for and willing (hopefully) to pay big bucks for an "ace"? Why not just eliminate the "5-man rotation", fill up the bullpen with reliever types and go with that?

Not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand the thinking behind this seemingly paranoia about pitches/innings. I'm an old dog so its' hard for me to learn this new "trick".

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Thanks for the clarification. But if a young (rookie?) pitcher is never allowed to pitch 3 times through the batting order how do we know he's not effectively (not sure how an effective out differs from a regular out) getting outs on the 3rd round? Or are all pitchers automatically assumed to be unable to pitch that 3rd round? If so does this mean all pitchers are essentially considered "long relievers" nowadays and "starting pitcher" designations are no longer significant? In which case why would the team be looking for and willing (hopefully) to pay big bucks for an "ace"? Why not just eliminate the "5-man rotation", fill up the bullpen with reliever types and go with that?

Not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand the thinking behind this seemingly paranoia about pitches/innings. I'm an old dog so its' hard for me to learn this new "trick".

In my personal opinion teams are teaching the younger kids to go all out for as long as they can, because the stats say that getting though a lineup a 3rd time is hard to do. So again in my opinion and I have no data to back this up pitch counts and limiting innings might actually be hurting these pitchers. Obviously while trying to stretch somebody out and coming back from injury these are good tools to use. I believe I remember reading that huge jumps in innings from year to year isn't a good thing on a arm, but maybe teaching pitches to actually pitch and no always have to go all out might be good as well.

But I don't think the way teams are using pitchers is going to change until it starts actually affecting the salaries of starting pitchers and the union steps up.

[dex8425]

I'm not done with Dobnak yet. He actually has proven more at this point than Ryan and Ober. There is a reason he started game 2 of a playoff series in Yankee stadium in 2019. I guess a couple reasons...one reason being the 2019 team needed another good starting pitcher as good or better than Berrios. 

Sure, Ober, Ryan, Bundy Dobnak and (insert another aaaa arm) is probably about the worst rotation in all of baseball, but that's what we have to discuss right now. My issue is the front office stated the Twins are not rebuilding but if you enter 2022 with Ober, Ryan, Bundy and Dobnak in the rotation you're clearly not trying to contend, and the bats are ready to contend in 2022. 

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Thanks for the clarification. But if a young (rookie?) pitcher is never allowed to pitch 3 times through the batting order how do we know he's not effectively (not sure how an effective out differs from a regular out) getting outs on the 3rd round? Or are all pitchers automatically assumed to be unable to pitch that 3rd round? If so does this mean all pitchers are essentially considered "long relievers" nowadays and "starting pitcher" designations are no longer significant? In which case why would the team be looking for and willing (hopefully) to pay big bucks for an "ace"? Why not just eliminate the "5-man rotation", fill up the bullpen with reliever types and go with that?

Not trying to be difficult, just trying to understand the thinking behind this seemingly paranoia about pitches/innings. I'm an old dog so its' hard for me to learn this new "trick".

There's a ton of data that they're tracking on all their young guys. For example, with Ober last year they were using in game velo, spin rate, release point, contact allowed, etc. data from pitch to pitch during each of his starts to decide when to take him out. It's not a hard line of "he just faced the 9 hole hitter a second time, take him out." The pitchers get to keep going during numerous starts into the 3rd time through the order. The team continues to compile that data. They continue to track spin rates, release points, more data than you could imagine on every pitch. They use it all to decide what a good range of pitches, times facing hitters, innings, etc. is for each guy. It's a very fluid thing based on a crazy amount of data.

But if a young guy is continually dominating the lineup twice they're not taking them out without letting them try the order a third time. Last year was unique in that it was coming off a year where many many pitchers threw 0 innings, but generally speaking the limits are based on individual pitcher's results and data. But the game is moving more towards more long relievers and fewer true starters. As many in the industry describe it they're moving towards out getters and piecing together staffs that can get 9 innings of outs. They use the 40-man roster quite differently now as they rotate arms between AAA and the majors. Only going to be more dramatic with AAA teams moving closer to their major league parent club.

The teams are getting more flexible with things. Nobody is going to start pulling the deGroms of the world after twice through the order, but the guys who aren't deGrom will be used differently. They're continuing to adapt how pitchers are used. They just have far more data now and are able to individualize things more instead of sending a guy out there in the 6th to face the 3-4-5 hitters a 3rd time with a 1 run lead when they know he's tired and not their best chance to get those guys out.

[cHawk]

3 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

I'm not done with Dobnak yet. He actually has proven more at this point than Ryan and Ober. There is a reason he started game 2 of a playoff series in Yankee stadium in 2019. I guess a couple reasons...one reason being the 2019 team needed another good starting pitcher as good or better than Berrios. 

Sure, Ober, Ryan, Bundy Dobnak and (insert another aaaa arm) is probably about the worst rotation in all of baseball, but that's what we have to discuss right now. My issue is the front office stated the Twins are not rebuilding but if you enter 2022 with Ober, Ryan, Bundy and Dobnak in the rotation you're clearly not trying to contend, and the bats are ready to contend in 2022. 

That reason is that the Twins didn’t have anyone else to start there. Pineda was injured and Gibson/Perez were both awful at the end of the year.

I’m not completely writing off Dobnak, but the Twins should not rely on him.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Sorry if you assumed I meant starters were going to complete every game. I meant there is about 1458 innings in a season.

The Twins have 3 starters, and Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Garza Jr, Jax, Rogers, Stashak, Theilbar, Throrpe, if they each pitch 75 (675), they are still short quite a bit of innings.

 

 

My guess is that they are going to make some 1 inning guys 2 inning guys.  They are going to take some traditional SPs like Odorizzi that are only good for 2X through the order and make them a "hybrid".  The model will look something like these two examples.  It will look something like the WS did this past year.

		AVE	AVE	# OF		TOTAL
#		IP	REST	Games	IP	IP
3	Traditional Starters	4.66	5.6	33	153.95	461.84
4	Hybrid	3.33	4.33	43	142.27	569.10
2	2 IP Specialist	1.66	2.66	70	115.45	230.90
4	1 IP Specialist	0.9	2.2	84	75.68	302.73
13						1564.57
		AVE	AVE	# OF		TOTAL
#		IP	REST	Games	IP	IP
3	Traditional Starters	4.66	5.6	33	153.95	461.84
2	Hybrid	3.33	4.33	43	142.27	284.55
4	2 IP Specialist	1.66	2.66	70	115.45	461.80
4	1 IP Specialist	0.9	2.2	84	75.68	302.73
13						1510.92

 

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, Sconnie said:

At this point in time, this is the 2022 rotation (in no particular order):

• Joe Ryan 92 IP(incl minors in ‘21) 4.05 ERA
• Bailey Ober 110.1 IP 4.19 ERA
• Dylan Bundy 90.2 IP 6.06 ERA
• Griffin Jax 122.2 IP 6.36 ERA
• (open slot)

I believe Griffin Jax to be a lock for the rotation. He’s the only guy with a shot at 150 innings right now.

Agreed with the other poster that they’ll likely use piggy-backing and try to hold on to as many prospects as possible.

I’d like them to sign Pineda and trade for a very good future front of the rotation type. Signing Pineda seems like a good chance. The trade does not. We’re they successful with both, Bundy should get pushed to the back of a piggyback.

as it sits, this is a very bad rotation

I think they push Ober to at least 150 IP assuming he stays relatively healthy. You can't have 2/3 of your rotation locked in with 120 IP (4ish innings per start) caps, with Bundy + another oft injured vet + prospects dealing with their own injuries/restrictions expected to pick up the slack. I don't know if there's any amount of creativity that can make up for the innings or talent deficit we're talking about running out onto the field.

As a side note, I feel like the innings restrictions on a lot of the prospects calls into question how much actual "development," at least at the major league level, we'll see. 

[Nine of twelve]

What I would open the season with:

Ryan.

Ober.

Bundy.

Dobnak.

Prospect audition.

In terms of the rotation, the 2022 season should be thought of as a head start on 2023 spring training. The goal is to identify a rotation that is reliable if not better for 2023 and beyond. That means there should be at least one prospect getting some work every cycle. Bundy should have the shortest leash, followed by Dobnak. This doesn't leave room for Pineda. I think there will be a decent team out there who will fit him into a 3 or 4 slot in their rotation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I think they push Ober to at least 150 IP assuming he stays relatively healthy. You can't have 2/3 of your rotation locked in with 120 IP (4ish innings per start) caps, with Bundy + another oft injured vet + prospects dealing with their own injuries/restrictions expected to pick up the slack. I don't know if there's any amount of creativity that can make up for the innings or talent deficit we're talking about running out onto the field.

As a side note, I feel like the innings restrictions on a lot of the prospects calls into question how much actual "development," at least at the major league level, we'll see. 

Agreed, you can’t have a rotation in such a state. Ober needs to be stretched out further.
 

150 innings is a 36% YOY increase for Ober. I doubt the FO would push it that far or if he could and avoid injury. more likely 20-25% increase or 130 to 136 innings for Ober.

on the other hand, Bundy is a hired gun on a 1 year deal. Run him out there till his arm falls off, or he’s too bad to stomach

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Sconnie said:

Agreed, you can’t have a rotation in such a state. Ober needs to be stretched out further.
 

150 innings is a 36% YOY increase for Ober. I doubt the FO would push it that far or if he could and avoid injury. more likely 20-25% increase or 130 to 136 innings for Ober.

on the other hand, Bundy is a hired gun on a 1 year deal. Run him out there till his arm falls off, or he’s too bad to stomach

He ramped up by a similar rate from '19 to last season. Ober is going to turn 27 this season, and he profiles, at his ceiling, as a back end starter. I'm not advocating for the team to be reckless, but at this point I think they can let go of at least as much rope as they did last season. If injuries are an issue, as they have been during his career, (including the end of last season) then a spot in the starting rotation might not be in the cards. 

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

What I would open the season with:

Ryan.

Ober.

Bundy.

Dobnak.

Prospect audition.

In terms of the rotation, the 2022 season should be thought of as a head start on 2023 spring training. The goal is to identify a rotation that is reliable if not better for 2023 and beyond. That means there should be at least one prospect getting some work every cycle. Bundy should have the shortest leash, followed by Dobnak. This doesn't leave room for Pineda. I think there will be a decent team out there who will fit him into a 3 or 4 slot in their rotation.

I think we will see those final two spots will be handled by stacking Dobnak / Jax and maybe Cotton with Winder / Balazovic / Strotman / Duran / Sands and Canterino throughout the year.  I also expect one more veteran to be added via free agency or trade.  I could see that being someone like Odorizzi who fits into this model.  Someone like Odorizzi meaning someone who is good a couple times through a lineup.  

It would be great if the Dobnak we saw in spring training emerged and gave us more quality innings but that's a stretch.  This would be a good way to give him a chance to improve.

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 2/1/2022 at 6:44 AM, mikelink45 said:

This is the year Winder, Balazovic, Canterino get a chance to show what they have.  Since the needs are so great and we are not going to sign five really good veterans or trade for five established starters I am all in on using the minor leaguers to debut and get their arms wet in the big leagues.  I would hope that we have three more starters, although I agree with Linus that last year's rookies could face a different reality this year.  I also hope that Jax is only for the BP.  

The problem is that we need five - not one FA/trade candidate - if we want to compete.  That is not going to happen.  So why waste prospects?  I like what Detroit has done.  They got their three young pitchers some seasoning in the big leagues and now they are adding to the mix as those pitchers mature.  KC is doing something similar.  I believe that is the route we should be following too.   With luck it will only take a year to turn the tide. 

I think this is the right approach AND the approach we should expect to see this year. I expect to see Ober and Ryan to get 20 plus starts this season, and some combination of Winder, Caterino, Balazovic and Dobnak to get 75 plus starts between them. Jax may be in the mix too, although I think he actually could be a good BP guy, and it wouldn't shock me to see Strotman, SWR or another pitcher a few starts. The idea is to use this year to find 4 guys for the bottom 3 spots in 2023, 1 or 2 of whom have a chance to eventually move into the top 2 spots. Then you have a pipeline starting to bear fruit and you can replenish form the bottom. I actually think we may be close to making that work. 

This all works IF you get a couple of guys to fill the top 2 spots that you can rely on. We had one in Berrios and let him go. Bundy is not that guy unless 2020 becomes the norm and his history suggests that 2020 is the outlier.  Pineda can hold down one of those spots for the 20-25 starts he will bring but we need another badly. I'm heartened to read that they are heavily involved in the trade market because I do think the As, Marlins and Reds have guys we could put in the top 2 spots if we can get the without trading quality pitching and re-sign guys so they stay at least 3-4 years. That doesn't get us a #1. We will have to develop that pitcher from the young guys we have; that costs to much on the trade or FA market. Still, if we can get a Montas, Manea, Bassitt (my choice), Gray, Lopez, etc. in trade, or even sign Rondon and have him last the whole year (good luck with that), we can put out a respectable rotation in 20222, develop our young pitching, and potentially have a contending rotation in 2023. 

My thoughts for the 2022 rotation:

1- Bassitt/Montas/Manea/Gray/Castillo/Lopez, etc.

2- Pineda

3- Ober

4- Ryan

5- Bundy/Winder/Caterino/Strotman/Dobnak, etc.

[Battle ur tail off]

I think we will see Joe Ryan emerge even more this year. I liked what I saw from him. He seems to have "it". I have more faith in him than almost any other pitcher in our organization right now. Plus Tampa raised him, so there's that. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I personally don't think we will see any prospect currently not on the 40 man until they figure out if Dobnak, Jax, Sands, Strotman, Winder and Vallimont are worthy of continuing to be kept on the 40 man.

So it would not surprise me to see a starting 5 of Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Dobnak and Jax. And if Ryan or Ober struggle they could get sent down and replaced with one of the above, but if Dobnak or Jax struggle the could get released, opening up 40 man spots for others.

Now if that is how the season starts, I personally won't have to worry about watching crappy baseball, because I won't pay to see that disgusting staff and I stream so currently can't watch on TV as far as I know.  I will sit on the side and complain how bad this FO is and Rocco should be fired, OR I will be in the backyard grilling crow (and still complaining about Rocco because I don't like him as a manager)

[Mike Sixel]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

My guess is that they are going to make some 1 inning guys 2 inning guys.  They are going to take some traditional SPs like Odorizzi that are only good for 2X through the order and make them a "hybrid".  The model will look something like these two examples.  It will look something like the WS did this past year.

		AVE	AVE	# OF		TOTAL
#		IP	REST	Games	IP	IP
3	Traditional Starters	4.66	5.6	33	153.95	461.84
4	Hybrid	3.33	4.33	43	142.27	569.10
2	2 IP Specialist	1.66	2.66	70	115.45	230.90
4	1 IP Specialist	0.9	2.2	84	75.68	302.73
13						1564.57
		AVE	AVE	# OF		TOTAL
#		IP	REST	Games	IP	IP
3	Traditional Starters	4.66	5.6	33	153.95	461.84
2	Hybrid	3.33	4.33	43	142.27	284.55
4	2 IP Specialist	1.66	2.66	70	115.45	461.80
4	1 IP Specialist	0.9	2.2	84	75.68	302.73
13						1510.92

 

I've been arguing a team should do this for years. If you don't have 4 traditional starters, don't try to force it. Use some kind of hybrid, stacking, system. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I personally don't think we will see any prospect currently not on the 40 man until they figure out if Dobnak, Jax, Sands, Strotman, Winder and Vallimont are worthy of continuing to be kept on the 40 man.

So it would not surprise me to see a starting 5 of Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Dobnak and Jax. And if Ryan or Ober struggle they could get sent down and replaced with one of the above, but if Dobnak or Jax struggle the could get released, opening up 40 man spots for others.

Now if that is how the season starts, I personally won't have to worry about watching crappy baseball, because I won't pay to see that disgusting staff and I stream so currently can't watch on TV as far as I know.  I will sit on the side and complain how bad this FO is and Rocco should be fired, OR I will be in the backyard grilling crow (and still complaining about Rocco because I don't like him as a manager)

Jax is not a starter. I don't get why anyone thinks he is. He might, might, be a RP, but even that, imo, is in doubt.

 

[notoriousgod71]

The funny thing is the rotation is horrible but the bullpen might be even worse.

 

I want to watch Ryan pitch to see how he does but I have no expectations that Ober, Jax, or whoever would be a significant part of a competitive team.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've been arguing a team should do this for years. If you don't have 4 traditional starters, don't try to force it. Use some kind of hybrid, stacking, system. 

I would bet you get your wish.  The industry is changing.  Once again, the Rays have led the way in developing new strategies / practices.  They showed the league how to maximize talent and put together very effective pitching staffs by utilizing that talent in an unconventional way.  I would not give them all the credit.  We have increasingly seen this strategy in playoff series.  The Braves utilized it in route to winning the WS this year.

We are seeing great angst here because of the perception it has to be done a certain way.  Fans who resist so strenuously will continue to be frustrated.  Personally, I would be thrilled to see the Minnesota Twins be on the front of the adaptation curve for once.  I like an 8 IP start as much as the next guy and I am sure if we get our own Jake DeGrom they will let him go deep.  However, I much prefer they adapt their practices to account for the fact there are very few Jake DeGroms out there.  

[Otaknam]

Both Dobnak and Jax have shown that they are at best five inning pitchers, so that means cycling bullpen arms in and out of the minors to get some innings. That doesn’t breed confidence in the rotation. I could see the Twins resigning Pineda and after Bundy fill in the fifth spot with any rookie who has some success. For a change they do have some rookie starters to choose from. But I don’t see them trading high prospects with Oakland, as that’s not their MO. 

[Mahoning]

If you listen to Jim Kaat (and we all should listen to Jim Kaat) the only reason young pitchers pitch so few innings now is that is how they are trained. It's simply not possible that young athletes today have 60% of the strength and stamina that their grandparents did. If you are told by your bosses (as apparently the Twins pitchers are) that six innings is the limit of human capacity, then you will conform.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Both Dobnak and Jax have shown that they are at best five inning pitchers, so that means cycling bullpen arms in and out of the minors to get some innings. That doesn’t breed confidence in the rotation. I could see the Twins resigning Pineda and after Bundy fill in the fifth spot with any rookie who has some success. For a change they do have some rookie starters to choose from. But I don’t see them trading high prospects with Oakland, as that’s not their MO. 

I think it actually means pitching Dobnak and Jax (or any 2 similar pitchers) in the same game. 1-2 times through the order for each of them. I think we see the Twins go a little wild this year with some different pitching strategies. They simply can't survive in the 5 man rotation form this year. They have some kids who may be good, but can't throw 180+ innings this year. So I think we see them stacked and they each get once or twice through the order depending on the day and the 1 inning bullpen guys are actually used less than we've seen the last few years as the "starters" combine to cover more than 5 or 6 innings.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it actually means pitching Dobnak and Jax (or any 2 similar pitchers) in the same game. 1-2 times through the order for each of them. I think we see the Twins go a little wild this year with some different pitching strategies. They simply can't survive in the 5 man rotation form this year. They have some kids who may be good, but can't throw 180+ innings this year. So I think we see them stacked and they each get once or twice through the order depending on the day and the 1 inning bullpen guys are actually used less than we've seen the last few years as the "starters" combine to cover more than 5 or 6 innings.

I don't disagree with what you are saying at all and to be honest I don't know how they would do something different. (other then signing a couple of vets that they have go 4-6 innings regardless of how they are doing, I am not for that)

With that being said sometimes doing what is right for the team doesn't translate well to watching/viewing a game. If your choice is going to watch Ryan pitch on Saturday or going to a stacked or bullpen game on Sunday, which choice do you think most fans would make?

Also I think the fans could sour very quickly if Winder for example has a no hitter though 3, gets taken out and Jax comes in and gives up 4 in the 4th.

Also it could make Rocco's job almost impossible, again for example the plan is for Winder to go three and Balazovic to go three. What if Winder is finishes his 3 innings with 36 pitches, does he stick to the plan or let him go another. Or maybe they are stacking 4/4/1 and the Twins are winning 5 - 0, Winder has 48 pitches after 4, what does Rocco do? He is in a no win situation, he leaves him in Winder does bad in the 5th, that is on him, he takes him out and Balazovic doesn't do good, also on him.

IMO it is so hard to manage a team this way, and probably is why they didn't do it last year, when they absolutely could have with way lesser prospects than they have this year. Bullpen games are much easier, you are asking bullpen guys to do what they normally do, but stacking is asking pitchers to do something they don't normally do.

 

[tony&rodney]

A huge part of being successful in baseball is intellectual. Players must learn to accept failure. learn, and move forward. This is really difficult. Young pitchers get crushed routinely. No matter how you stack any pile of prospects, they are still prospects and prone to having doubts about themselves. This is true despite the enormously high level of ego and confidence that exist in professional athletes. A pitching staff needs a couple of experienced minds to set an example and these guys need to have more ability than a Shoemaker. Using a dozen prospects to get through the year to see what they have seems like a plan to fail. I would bet that Falvey has other plans in mind. We saw what the plan was last year with Berrios, Maeda, Happ, Shoemaker, and Dobnak. Stuff happens and last year the pitching staff tilted sideways. Now a few prospects are ready to fill two spots, hopefully and unknown quantities added to front the top two or three spots in the rotation. I guess we all get to find out eventually.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with what you are saying at all and to be honest I don't know how they would do something different. (other then signing a couple of vets that they have go 4-6 innings regardless of how they are doing, I am not for that)

With that being said sometimes doing what is right for the team doesn't translate well to watching/viewing a game. If your choice is going to watch Ryan pitch on Saturday or going to a stacked or bullpen game on Sunday, which choice do you think most fans would make?

Also I think the fans could sour very quickly if Winder for example has a no hitter though 3, gets taken out and Jax comes in and gives up 4 in the 4th.

Also it could make Rocco's job almost impossible, again for example the plan is for Winder to go three and Balazovic to go three. What if Winder is finishes his 3 innings with 36 pitches, does he stick to the plan or let him go another. Or maybe they are stacking 4/4/1 and the Twins are winning 5 - 0, Winder has 48 pitches after 4, what does Rocco do? He is in a no win situation, he leaves him in Winder does bad in the 5th, that is on him, he takes him out and Balazovic doesn't do good, also on him.

IMO it is so hard to manage a team this way, and probably is why they didn't do it last year, when they absolutely could have with way lesser prospects than they have this year. Bullpen games are much easier, you are asking bullpen guys to do what they normally do, but stacking is asking pitchers to do something they don't normally do.

 

I'm with you on the fan experience side of things. That's been a problem for a while now with the changes in approaches (3 true outcomes being the main culprit). But overall fans prefer to show up for wins. If they're losing every time Ryan pitches 5+, but winning every time they stack Winder and Balazovic I'm going to the Winder and Balazovic game.

As far as the managing of the pitchers I just don't see that as any different than deciding when to take a pitcher out in the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th. The Twins have far more data than us and have far more time dedicated to making plans. Especially with the lockout right now. They have nothing but time to strategize right now. There'll be some games that look like bad Rocco decisions and some that look like he got it right. It'll be an adjustment and be frustrating to see a guy cruising through 4 get taken out, but if it means wins then, again, I think we all deal with it better.

Ober was in a similar spot last year. We were basically all cranky to see him taken out because what else did we have to watch for beyond the young guys pitching and possibly providing hope for the future? If they're stacking Bundy and Pineda I'm not excited. But if it's Winder and Balazovic I'm still tuning in and am less cranky when they pull Winder because I know the big picture plan. Not only do arms need to be built up to go deep into games, but they need to be used to pitching from February into November (assuming we're trying to win World Series rings). So it's going to be annoying to have them pulled early, but I know they're also getting ready for future years when we want those guys throwing 160+ innings and maintaining success deep into the year.

If this becomes their new norm and they build entire staffs of stacked "starters" I'll be pissed. But in 2022 I get it. The goal being that a few of them start to separate and 2023 forward we have 3, 4, 5 guys that can be legit starters and can go back to a more typical rotation situation.

My strategy with stacking "starters" this year would be 1 guy is set to be the starter that day and the other knows he's starting the 5th. Allows him to do his normal pre-game (now mid-game) routine and start in a clean inning. He takes over as if the score is 0-0 and he's out there to do his normal starter thing. If the starter struggles and can't get through 4 a normal bullpen guy closes the gap. It's not great to pull the starter after the 4th if he's cruising, but they did it with Ober last year and now he's setup to throw a more normal starters load this year. With all the injuries we saw last year I'm good with taking a year to build buys back up while also getting them real MLB experience. Not ideal, but I don't think it's terrible either.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Mahoning said:

If you listen to Jim Kaat (and we all should listen to Jim Kaat) the only reason young pitchers pitch so few innings now is that is how they are trained. It's simply not possible that young athletes today have 60% of the strength and stamina that their grandparents did. If you are told by your bosses (as apparently the Twins pitchers are) that six innings is the limit of human capacity, then you will conform.

The average pitcher in MLB probably throws 93mph today and plenty throw close to or over 100mph. It's a max effort game for pitchers now, the time between pitches has doubled allowing for even greater strain on their arms which is why they tire faster. The pitch limit, innings limit, etc is all in an attempt to avoid pitchers throwing max effort while fatigued and blowing out their UCL because their mechanics break down.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't disagree with what you are saying at all and to be honest I don't know how they would do something different. (other then signing a couple of vets that they have go 4-6 innings regardless of how they are doing, I am not for that)

With that being said sometimes doing what is right for the team doesn't translate well to watching/viewing a game. If your choice is going to watch Ryan pitch on Saturday or going to a stacked or bullpen game on Sunday, which choice do you think most fans would make?

Also I think the fans could sour very quickly if Winder for example has a no hitter though 3, gets taken out and Jax comes in and gives up 4 in the 4th.

Also it could make Rocco's job almost impossible, again for example the plan is for Winder to go three and Balazovic to go three. What if Winder is finishes his 3 innings with 36 pitches, does he stick to the plan or let him go another. Or maybe they are stacking 4/4/1 and the Twins are winning 5 - 0, Winder has 48 pitches after 4, what does Rocco do? He is in a no win situation, he leaves him in Winder does bad in the 5th, that is on him, he takes him out and Balazovic doesn't do good, also on him.

IMO it is so hard to manage a team this way, and probably is why they didn't do it last year, when they absolutely could have with way lesser prospects than they have this year. Bullpen games are much easier, you are asking bullpen guys to do what they normally do, but stacking is asking pitchers to do something they don't normally do.

 

It's not hard at all. Have rules, follow them. Trust your strategy.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 2/1/2022 at 7:02 PM, Nine of twelve said:

What I would open the season with:

Ryan.

Ober.

Bundy.

Dobnak.

Prospect audition.

In terms of the rotation, the 2022 season should be thought of as a head start on 2023 spring training. The goal is to identify a rotation that is reliable if not better for 2023 and beyond. That means there should be at least one prospect getting some work every cycle. Bundy should have the shortest leash, followed by Dobnak. This doesn't leave room for Pineda. I think there will be a decent team out there who will fit him into a 3 or 4 slot in their rotation.

I agree other than Dobnak. I'd rather they just let another young guy in there. 

 

Also, this is the same thing that's been said for years and years here. "Let's see what we have". We never know because we don't ever develop guys and only sign washups to fill rotation spots. Hell, other teams have gotten more out of Twins prospects that we let go than guys we have kept the last few years. 

 

[bean5302]

First question. What is the Twins' front office objective this year? From what I've seen, it's certainly not to win. Also, I don't believe the Twins have a snowballs chance in hell of competing against Detroit or Chicago this year without a major roster shakeup or some really good luck and a lot of guys taking steps forward. While I don't think the Twins are "bad" at a lot of positions, they're far from good, either. 

Given that, I want to see Ober, Ryan, Winder, Bundy and Balazovic as the opening day rotation. Regarding the pessimist outlook on innings, I think people are overly dramatic. Serious innings limits are generally imposed on younger arms, not older prospects and MLB veterans.

Ober was limited to about 80 pitches per start last year and he was still pitching 5 innings per start. I think Ober could approach 180 innings this year with pitch limit of 90 and I think the Twins are more likely to limit his pitches per outing than his innings because that's what they did last year.

Ryan pitched 15 innings for the Olympics in addition to the 92 innings he pitched between MLB and MiLB. I don't expect him to be on a serious innings limit, either. 150 innings, easy.

No innings limit for Bundy.

Winder and Balazovic pitched 72 and 97 innings, respectively. I think a lot depends on their throwing programs.

Griffen Jax, Drew Strotman and Randy Dobnak are available as spot starters or long relievers to ease the pitch count/innings burden if necessary.