Discuss: 2022 Rotation

[cHawk]

I’ll probably write a series of these, each edition addressing a different part of the 2022 team (Rotation, Bullpen, Infield, Outfield) Let’s start with the rotation.

The Twins came into this offseason with a major need of starting rotation help. Let’s just say that they haven’t addressed it (yet). Their only signing so far has been Dylan Bundy, who as of right now would only replace Micheal Pineda in the rotation. If they’re going to have a competitive rotation next year, they need one or two more SPs.

At this point in time, this is the 2022 rotation (in no particular order):
• Joe Ryan
• Bailey Ober
• Dylan Bundy
• (open slot)
• (open slot)

The Twins need two more starters. There has been talk of the Twins’ minor league system potentially churning out one or two pitchers who show promise in 2022, so one of them could potentially take a rotation spot on opening day. They may also swing a trade for a starter or find one in FA.

There is also the very real possibility that Dylan Bundy doesn’t bounce back from a bad 2021:

In that case the Twins would need three starters. I don’t think they should rely on Dylan Bundy, although they should keep him as a potential option.

Who else should the Twins add? Well, as a mentioned above, they should look into signing Carlos Rodon, (if his price is reasonable, which it should be) and look to swing a trade for a starter. The A’s look like a good target, as apparently they’re planning to shed payroll this offseason, and they’re listening to offers for Bassit, Montas, and Manaea.

The Twins also have prospects waiting in the wings, most notably Jordan Balazovic and Simeon Woods-Richardson. They could potentially pencil one of them into the opening day rotation.

Focus topics for discussion below
1) What is the state of the rotation right now?
2) What needs to happen for our rotation to be competitive?
3) How those things can happen?
4) Will they happen?

[terrydactyls]

Ryan and Ober.

Pray for Rain.

Then Start Over.

[cHawk]

23 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Ryan and Ober.

Pray for Rain.

Then Start Over.

Well that’s one way to do it.

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Ryan and Ober.

Pray for Rain.

Then Start Over.

Yah. The Twins do not have an MLB starting five at this time. They have prospects only.

[farmerguychris]

If you look just at our history of NOT trading prospects for MLB talent - my guess is that we'd start the season with at least 1 rookie from our talented group of pitcher prospects, plus one retread like we did with Happ and Shoemaker last year.

[chpettit19]

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd put my money on them bringing back Pineda and signing maybe one more Bundy/Pineda type. I don't see them making any trades for the types of arms people are asking for. Maybe instead of the 2nd Bundy/Pineda signing they do a Maeda or Odo type move. But I don't see them spending big money or making a big trade before the season. And I'm good with that.

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects is the answer to the rotation question from here on out. They'll have enough "veteran" guys to start the year and delay service time on all their arms, but we'll get a look at half a dozen or more starting pitcher prospects this year. Some will end up as bullpen guys (I still think Duran has BP written all over him), but I think they'll go "creative" this year. We'll see a whole bunch of young guys getting piggy back starts with each guy expected to get through the order 1+ times before turning it over to the pen. As guys separate themselves they'll get more leash and get more innings, but they're all going to be limited on innings outside of maybe Ober or Ryan. I don't think we can frame this conversation in a 5 man rotation sort of way. Don't think we'll be seeing that this year.

So to answer your questions:
1. 5 man rotation wise it's a disaster. Bigger picture it's a gigantic question mark.
2. Creative use of youngsters who show they're ready for the majors.
3. Cycle through everyone who shows they're ready without having to DFA any young guys before they get a real shot to establish themselves.
4. I think they'll get guys through, but whether or not that makes them competitive is a complete unknown.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd put my money on them bringing back Pineda and signing maybe one more Bundy/Pineda type. I don't see them making any trades for the types of arms people are asking for. Maybe instead of the 2nd Bundy/Pineda signing they do a Maeda or Odo type move. But I don't see them spending big money or making a big trade before the season. And I'm good with that.

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects is the answer to the rotation question from here on out. They'll have enough "veteran" guys to start the year and delay service time on all their arms, but we'll get a look at half a dozen or more starting pitcher prospects this year. Some will end up as bullpen guys (I still think Duran has BP written all over him), but I think they'll go "creative" this year. We'll see a whole bunch of young guys getting piggy back starts with each guy expected to get through the order 1+ times before turning it over to the pen. As guys separate themselves they'll get more leash and get more innings, but they're all going to be limited on innings outside of maybe Ober or Ryan. I don't think we can frame this conversation in a 5 man rotation sort of way. Don't think we'll be seeing that this year.

So to answer your questions:
1. 5 man rotation wise it's a disaster. Bigger picture it's a gigantic question mark.
2. Creative use of youngsters who show they're ready for the majors.
3. Cycle through everyone who shows they're ready without having to DFA any young guys before they get a real shot to establish themselves.
4. I think they'll get guys through, but whether or not that makes them competitive is a complete unknown.

This is plausible, but what is the record for this team? Just wonder what happens with this experiment. Do the Twins lose 90, 100, or more games or do they get some decent results such as 72-90 or better? What is the expectations going with "whomever"? There are signs that point to the directions you list. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, cHawk said:

I’ll probably write a series of these, each edition addressing a different part of the 2022 team (Rotation, Bullpen, Infield, Outfield) Let’s start with the rotation.

The Twins came into this offseason with a major need of starting rotation help. Let’s just say that they haven’t addressed it (yet). Their only signing so far has been Dylan Bundy, who as of right now would only replace Micheal Pineda in the rotation. If they’re going to have a competitive rotation next year, they need one or two more SPs.

At this point in time, this is the 2022 rotation (in no particular order):
• Joe Ryan
• Bailey Ober
• Dylan Bundy
• (open slot)
• (open slot)

In that case the Twins would need three starters. I don’t think they should rely on Dylan Bundy, although they should keep him as a potential option.

 

The Twins also have prospects waiting in the wings, most notably Jordan Balazovic and Simeon Woods-Richardson. They could potentially pencil one of them into the opening day rotation.

Focus topics for discussion below
1) What is the state of the rotation right now?
2) What needs to happen for our rotation to be competitive?
3) How those things can happen?
4) Will they happen?

At this point in time, this is the 2022 rotation (in no particular order):

• Joe Ryan 92 IP(incl minors in ‘21) 4.05 ERA
• Bailey Ober 110.1 IP 4.19 ERA
• Dylan Bundy 90.2 IP 6.06 ERA
• Griffin Jax 122.2 IP 6.36 ERA
• (open slot)

I believe Griffin Jax to be a lock for the rotation. He’s the only guy with a shot at 150 innings right now.

Agreed with the other poster that they’ll likely use piggy-backing and try to hold on to as many prospects as possible.

I’d like them to sign Pineda and trade for a very good future front of the rotation type. Signing Pineda seems like a good chance. The trade does not. We’re they successful with both, Bundy should get pushed to the back of a piggyback.

as it sits, this is a very bad rotation

[Linus]

Not be the wet blanket but I think many people are getting over their skis a little on Ober and Ryan. Don’t be shocked if the league adjusts and one or both of them struggle. The job of building this rotation is bigger than it seems unless you have punted the season. 

[rv78]

Your two open slots are not open. The Twins have Griffin Jax and Randy Dobnak to fill those spots. Yeah, lets get excited!

[cHawk]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

Not be the wet blanket but I think many people are getting over their skis a little on Ober and Ryan. Don’t be shocked if the league adjusts and one or both of them struggle. The job of building this rotation is bigger than it seems unless you have punted the season. 

I don’t expect them to be the #1/#2 of the staff. The league might adjust and they might struggle. However, I think it’s fair to expect them to be able to hold down two of the 3-5 spots and they can fill in the top two via trades/FAs.

[cHawk]

5 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Your two open slots are not open. The Twins have Griffin Jax and Randy Dobnak to fill those spots. Yeah, lets get excited!

I knew about them and left them off of this write-up for a reason.

[Dman]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a betting man, but if I were I'd put my money on them bringing back Pineda and signing maybe one more Bundy/Pineda type. I don't see them making any trades for the types of arms people are asking for. Maybe instead of the 2nd Bundy/Pineda signing they do a Maeda or Odo type move. But I don't see them spending big money or making a big trade before the season. And I'm good with that.

Prospects, prospects, and more prospects is the answer to the rotation question from here on out. They'll have enough "veteran" guys to start the year and delay service time on all their arms, but we'll get a look at half a dozen or more starting pitcher prospects this year. Some will end up as bullpen guys (I still think Duran has BP written all over him), but I think they'll go "creative" this year. We'll see a whole bunch of young guys getting piggy back starts with each guy expected to get through the order 1+ times before turning it over to the pen. As guys separate themselves they'll get more leash and get more innings, but they're all going to be limited on innings outside of maybe Ober or Ryan. I don't think we can frame this conversation in a 5 man rotation sort of way. Don't think we'll be seeing that this year.

So to answer your questions:
1. 5 man rotation wise it's a disaster. Bigger picture it's a gigantic question mark.
2. Creative use of youngsters who show they're ready for the majors.
3. Cycle through everyone who shows they're ready without having to DFA any young guys before they get a real shot to establish themselves.
4. I think they'll get guys through, but whether or not that makes them competitive is a complete unknown.

Yeah that sounds about right to me as well.  What else can they really do?  They have all this young pitching on the 40 man to the point they can't really add anyone else and next year they need to be able to add likely Canterino, Varland, Gipson-long and maybe Mooney not to mention Wallner, Steer and Jullien.  They have to figure out what they have and hope it translates to the 26 man so that they have a better idea of who looks like they can make it and who looks like it might take too long to develop.  Like it or not it seems to me they need a development year to figure out if they can fill out that rotation internally or at least hopefully be able to fill three or four of those slots internally.

I think your plan makes a lot of sense.  The one thing the Twins  appear to have right now is significant depth with close to ready young pitching.  TIme to see if they can make it or not as there are guys right behind them likely ready to go after next year.

[AceWrigley]

So really what "Rotation" means for the Twins in 2022 is the movement of all the bodies in and out as starters.

[mikelink45]

This is the year Winder, Balazovic, Canterino get a chance to show what they have.  Since the needs are so great and we are not going to sign five really good veterans or trade for five established starters I am all in on using the minor leaguers to debut and get their arms wet in the big leagues.  I would hope that we have three more starters, although I agree with Linus that last year's rookies could face a different reality this year.  I also hope that Jax is only for the BP.  

The problem is that we need five - not one FA/trade candidate - if we want to compete.  That is not going to happen.  So why waste prospects?  I like what Detroit has done.  They got their three young pitchers some seasoning in the big leagues and now they are adding to the mix as those pitchers mature.  KC is doing something similar.  I believe that is the route we should be following too.   With luck it will only take a year to turn the tide. 

[Doctor Gast]

As of right now we won't have anyone established that we can depend upon to go 5+ innings for any amount of time, much less the whole season. So our hope is this opener/ long relief experiment will work. For so many years we've needed a steady supply of long relief to uphold the SP and short relief, if they indeed incorporate that correctly this season, I like our chances. I'd like if we can pick up an established frontline SP via trade to help stabilize the rotation.

My other suggestion is to pick up FA Chris Archer. Unfortunately for Archer, the Pirates used him and other top line pitchers all wrong, resulting in poor results. Later his shoulder injury that resulted in 2 missed seasons. Therefore it is understandable that his return in 2021 would be slow and his 1st game would be questionable. If you throw out his 1st game, his 1st time through the order he was absolutely dominate, pitching in a very competitive East division.  Due to his lack of endurance, after his 1st time through the order, understandably his performance waned. 

Chris Archer has always been a perfect fit for the Twins and with this piggy-back approach it makes even more sense. He still has a lot of upside and can be gotten very cheaply. With some patience he could again become that work horse, pitching 200 innings and evolve into that ace through Wes Johnson. Also he's very good with young pitchers. He' a low risk/ high reward opportunity.

[chpettit19]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

This is plausible, but what is the record for this team? Just wonder what happens with this experiment. Do the Twins lose 90, 100, or more games or do they get some decent results such as 72-90 or better? What is the expectations going with "whomever"? There are signs that point to the directions you list. 

No idea what the record is. Depends on how well the young guys perform. If they come up and pitch like Ober and Ryan did last year they'd be quite competitive. If they come up and pitch like Barnes and Jax they'd be quite bad. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

So really what "Rotation" means for the Twins in 2022 is the movement of all the bodies in and out as starters.

Agreed, the real question is how are the Twins going to fill ~1458 (162*9) innings this year?

Bundy - 120

Ober - 150

Ryan - 140

Only 1000 left to fill.

[Mahoning]

The situation has potential to be disastrous. As others have noted, Ober and Ryan have no track record and the Twins won't let them pitch many innings, and both could easily have arm trouble. Look for them to keep a Uber on call in St. Paul as they shuttle pitchers up and down from the Saints. The Twins should hope for a LONG lockout and a very short season. 

[Battle ur tail off]

I think as it sits, we all have to be prepared for a very tough season. Rebuilding for sure. These young guys all need to get their feet wet and lets see who can make it. Then do what you can to move or just flat out let go of the rest. We have WAY WAY too many holes on the pitching staff to be competitive. 

I also want to see Lewis and Martin on this team. They won't do much this year but next year they will be expected to be starters and contributors. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Mahoning said:

The situation has potential to be disastrous. As others have noted, Ober and Ryan have no track record and the Twins won't let them pitch many innings, and both could easily have arm trouble. Look for them to keep a Uber on call in St. Paul as they shuttle pitchers up and down from the Saints. The Twins should hope for a LONG lockout and a very short season. 

While it has the potential to be disastrous, I definitely agree, it also has the potential to be surprising and hopeful. I'm not counting on it, but I'm not completely counting it out, either.

I think you will see Ober and Ryan go a little deeper being a year further out from some of these guys not pitching at all (in 2020). While Ober was limited to 2, 3 or 4 innings last year, I think he will be pushed a little further. Ryan, too. In today's game (not just the Twins, it's all of baseball), starters just don't pitch that deep anymore. If we can get either of these guys to 5 or 6, I think that's good. (But yeah, may see only 4 at the start of the season. If there is a season.)

[Rosterman]

Well, if you got 6 innings average out of your rottion arms, that would be 1,000 innings...five pitchers pitching 200 innings. Hard enough to have one pitcher on a staff reach that mark these days.

 

The Twins have no pitchers currently that will come close to 200 innings.

 

Ober and Jax MIGHT hit 50 innings (at best, 30 starts, five innings a start.

 

Ryan could be ushed towards that amount. Bundy, who knows.

 

Looks like the Twins, baring a free agent or trade addition, will have to cycle thru some 10 pitchers at the least to start games in 2022. And even those, if they spent a full year at AAA or AA, might be hard pressed to surpass 150 innings, which would be the dream if you want them going forwards.

 

It's all about the innings, and the pitch counts it takes to get to those innings.

 

And hope you have the 40-man roster spots to shuttle guys back and forth, not to mention the strain on the pen.

 

It's a situation like this that someone like Griffin Jax may get a chance to shine, of be one of the worst starters ever in the history of the franchise.

[gman]

I would much prefer to see the Twins use Ryan, Ober, Jax, Dobnak, Bundy, Winder, Balazovic & Duran in the rotation as much as possible then sign some pitchers who are more get through the season types rather than building blocks. I rather see rookies pitch, fail & learn for the year and build towards a solid 2023/24 rotation that can provide consistency and become a real strength for a change. We never will get a solid rotation through free agency.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, gman said:

I would much prefer to see the Twins use Ryan, Ober, Jax, Dobnak, Bundy, Winder, Balazovic & Duran in the rotation as much as possible then sign some pitchers who are more get through the season types rather than building blocks. I rather see rookies pitch, fail & learn for the year and build towards a solid 2023/24 rotation that can provide consistency and become a real strength for a change. We never will get a solid rotation through free agency.

What if only two of those pitchers are successful in that role next year, heck even 3, what does 2023 look like? I am in no way going to be happy if 22 goes the way of 21 and we are looking at 23 like we are 22.

I do want to see as many of these prospects as possible this year, but I don't want to see 14 starts from them if they are pitching like Jax or Barnes did in 21.

This is on this FO to figure out, but I am in no way waiting around to 24 after being promised sustained success.

[Mike Sixel]

Probably one of the five worst staffs in the game, without a significant acquisition. I'd say worst, but I'm confident other teams can screw up ......

I'm really confused about not getting one legit good pitcher in FA. I have no idea why any older veteran isn't dealt at this point, they can't expect to be even close to good at pitching next year given this staff. 

[In My La Z boy]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Probably one of the five worst staffs in the game, without a significant acquisition. I'd say worst, but I'm confident other teams can screw up ......

I'm really confused about not getting one legit good pitcher in FA. I have no idea why any older veteran isn't dealt at this point, they can't expect to be even close to good at pitching next year given this staff. 

There had to be trade talk before the lockout. No way Falvey goes into the season as is. I'm guessing we acquire someone good in trade, and we sign Pineda. Still not enough unless we get a couple prospects to pan out / Winder, Balazovic? I do believe Ober and Dobnak can be slightly above average, and maybe Ryan is a stud? Not the best plan. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Agreed, the real question is how are the Twins going to fill ~1458 (162*9) innings this year?

Bundy - 120

Ober - 150

Ryan - 140

Only 1000 left to fill.

Are you assuming the Twins starters are pitching complete games every game? That's going to be a hard standard to meet...

[Dave The Dastardly]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Well, if you got 6 innings average out of your rottion arms, that would be 1,000 innings...five pitchers pitching 200 innings. Hard enough to have one pitcher on a staff reach that mark these days.

 

The Twins have no pitchers currently that will come close to 200 innings.

 

Ober and Jax MIGHT hit 50 innings (at best, 30 starts, five innings a start.

 

Ryan could be ushed towards that amount. Bundy, who knows.

 

Looks like the Twins, baring a free agent or trade addition, will have to cycle thru some 10 pitchers at the least to start games in 2022. And even those, if they spent a full year at AAA or AA, might be hard pressed to surpass 150 innings, which would be the dream if you want them going forwards.

 

It's all about the innings, and the pitch counts it takes to get to those innings.

 

And hope you have the 40-man roster spots to shuttle guys back and forth, not to mention the strain on the pen.

 

It's a situation like this that someone like Griffin Jax may get a chance to shine, of be one of the worst starters ever in the history of the franchise.

Regarding total innings and pitch counts, there is absolutely no scientific proof either is a cause of arm injuries. So I'm always amazed that Rocco, et al, supposedly into analytics, do so much to limit pitchers innings and pitch counts. My fear is that the Twins will bring up these pitching prospects we're supposedly testing out and Rocco will park them on the bench, maybe let them throw one or two innings once or twice a week and at the end of the season we still won't know what we got.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6390229/

https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/All-Disorders/Repetitive-Motion-Disorders-Information-Page

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What if only two of those pitchers are successful in that role next year, heck even 3, what does 2023 look like? I am in no way going to be happy if 22 goes the way of 21 and we are looking at 23 like we are 22.

I do want to see as many of these prospects as possible this year, but I don't want to see 14 starts from them if they are pitching like Jax or Barnes did in 21.

This is on this FO to figure out, but I am in no way waiting around to 24 after being promised sustained success.

If 2 or 3 of the prospects are successful in '22 then 2023 is looking great and nothing like '22. If Ryan, Ober, and Balazovic (just example names) are successful in the rotation in '22 and we are going into '23 with 3 young arms on league minimum deals as part of the rotation they're in significantly better position than they are right now.

If it's just Ober and Ryan having another good year and establishing themselves as mid-rotation guys you go into '23 with Maeda, Ober, and Ryan all established as legit major league arms on extremely cheap deals. As opposed to '22 when we're going in with 0 (so far) established arms. If Balazovic, Duran, Winder, etc. can produce 1 more arm to feel good about as a #5 going into 2023 you're looking at filling 1 rotation spot as opposed to 5. My expectation is that only 2 or 3 guys establish themselves/are successful in '22 and I'm quite excited about what that means for '23. 

Sign Story to a 5 year deal, have 2 or 3 youngsters establish themselves in '22 and go into '23 needing 1 front of the rotation arm. Feels pretty realistic to me. With Donaldson and Sano both off the books after '23 there's even more to be excited about as far as possibilities if 2 or 3 young guys are successful in '22. That's the dream. That's the hope. 2 or 3 youngsters are successful and a couple others show they can be bullpen pieces? Be still my heart ?

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Regarding total innings and pitch counts, there is absolutely no scientific proof either is a cause of arm injuries. So I'm always amazed that Rocco, et al, supposedly into analytics, do so much to limit pitchers innings and pitch counts. My fear is that the Twins will bring up these pitching prospects we're supposedly testing out and Rocco will park them on the bench, maybe let them throw one or two innings once or twice a week and at the end of the season we still won't know what we got.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6390229/

https://www.ninds.nih.gov/Disorders/All-Disorders/Repetitive-Motion-Disorders-Information-Page

 

It's not so much about arm troubles as it is about effectiveness 2 or 3 times through a batting order. The analytics they're going off aren't about arm injuries, they're about effectively getting outs. All of that with the caveat of a missed season in 2020 limiting pitch counts/innings in 2021.