Would a Twins Trade for Tyler Glasnow Make Sense?

[mikelink45]

20 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Don't forget Maeda!

I am in the minority, but I think 2020 was a short season fluke -  However, you might be right, he will certainly be penciled in the rotation and perhaps Ober's ride will be at an end.  We all know it takes at least 8 pitchers to make a season so he is welcomed back, but he is not a 1 or 2 in the future. 

[Karbo]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

I am in the minority, but I think 2020 was a short season fluke -  However, you might be right, he will certainly be penciled in the rotation and perhaps Ober's ride will be at an end.  We all know it takes at least 8 pitchers to make a season so he is welcomed back, but he is not a 1 or 2 in the future. 

I agree that 2020 was a good year for him, but he still is an above average #3 or #4 starter.

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am in the minority, but I think 2020 was a short season fluke -  However, you might be right, he will certainly be penciled in the rotation and perhaps Ober's ride will be at an end.  We all know it takes at least 8 pitchers to make a season so he is welcomed back, but he is not a 1 or 2 in the future. 

He was quite solid in the summer months of this past year before he got injured.

[mikelink45]

38 minutes ago, cHawk said:

He was quite solid in the summer months of this past year before he got injured.

I agree he is solid, but we project more because we just don't have anything else. 

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Rays have done a great job for sure.  However, the twins most recent deal with them looks pretty good at the moment.  We got Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman for 2 months of Nelson Cruz.  His wRC+ of 96 was 12th on the Ray's team forthose 2 months. The Rays lost their division series 3-1.  IDK what Ryan and Strotman will contribute but I would bet 5 years from now we will see this trade as a great deal for the Twins.  

I seem to remember a trade with them for a pitcher a few years back, too. Something like Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios. If I'm remembering correctly Mr. Palacios is back in the Twins system now. I think we could call that a win for the Twins ?‍♂️

If it's not clear I'm being sarcastic about not remembering the details of the trade. The Rays are great at what they do, but they are certainly not "winning" 100% of their trades. They win enough and develop better than just about anyone, but, I agree, the current Twins FO has "won" their trades with the Rays.

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Mark G said:

Throughout the comment section I see two themes:  One, the thought that we should not trade prospects for a pitcher who is currently injured.  Two, we don't know if this pitcher will pitch much if he comes back from surgery, as he has not pitched many innings since 2018.  

Both of these thoughts confuse me somewhat.  We are more than willing to trade major league players for prospects, year after year after year after year after........sorry, but we don't ever seem to be willing to part with said prospects for major league players.  Why?  Major league players have already proven themselves to some degree, prospects have not, or they would be major league players.  And why do we care about how many innings a pitcher might pitch for a team who loves 4 inning starts and 4 relievers afterward?  Seems he would fit right in with our philosophy, wouldn't he?  Save him for the stretch, and all that.  I guess it strikes me if we aren't willing to make a trade like this, assuming the cost is within reason for a pitcher out for '22, then we are taking the position that we will only use free agency to build on our farm, and assume that the farm will always produce and the free agents will always be worth their signing.  How has that worked out so far?  

In my extremely humble opinion, go for it if the cost is right and take a chance on a true ace, which does not appear to be on the horizon as of right now (hope I am wrong on that).  What have we got to lose, except a couple of prospects which may or may not ever be major league players.  It is a gamble, but one worth taking at this point in time.  

We traded a prospect for Odo and an MLB ready prospect for Maeda. And that's just the 2 most obvious answers. Wade for Anderson was a prospect for a major leaguer. They've also made minor in season trades of prospects for major leaguers. Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa are brought up on this site weekly if not daily. So the idea that they're not willing to trade prospects for major league players is false. 

And, yes, major league players have proven themselves. The major league player being discussed here has proven he can't pitch a full major league season. He's literally never done it. Now he's going to be coming off TJ surgery and you seem to be suggesting that the assumption should be that for the first time in his entire career 2023 will be the year he finally pitches an entire season. A "true ace" pitches more than 100 innings in a season. So your thoughts confuse me.

[Minny505]

The value of Glasnow is incorrect on the trade simulator. It is not recognizing that he is out for 2022. Cut that AFV in half, add a couple million more for salary, and you get a player with a median surplus value of roughly 7. Duran alone should be enough, more than enough for the cost-conscious Rays. 

If the Twins can work out some sort of reasonable 4yr extension thru 2025, with a team option, that is guaranteed based on IP for 2024 and 2025, I'd pull the trigger. 

Without the extension though, not a chance.

[tony&rodney]

The Rays would likely want players that do not need to be on the 40 person roster. A phone call asking about any of their players but especially Glasnow, Walls, and Kiermeier sure can't hurt. Conversations should be taking place, absolutely. Glasnow, as previously mentioned, is worth much less than shown on BTV due to salary and injury. Finally, the Rays do not like to sit on players making good money while they only have a year left before free agency. Call and listen.

[Mark G]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

We traded a prospect for Odo and an MLB ready prospect for Maeda. And that's just the 2 most obvious answers. Wade for Anderson was a prospect for a major leaguer. They've also made minor in season trades of prospects for major leaguers. Luis Gil and Huascar Ynoa are brought up on this site weekly if not daily. So the idea that they're not willing to trade prospects for major league players is false. 

And, yes, major league players have proven themselves. The major league player being discussed here has proven he can't pitch a full major league season. He's literally never done it. Now he's going to be coming off TJ surgery and you seem to be suggesting that the assumption should be that for the first time in his entire career 2023 will be the year he finally pitches an entire season. A "true ace" pitches more than 100 innings in a season. So your thoughts confuse me.

Not sure why.  I never suggested that he would pitch more than 100 innings in his first season back; I specifically suggested he would fit in on a team that doesn't ask pitchers to pitch too many innings, preferring that the BP take a big part of the load, though a 28 year old might be able to if he makes a full recovery and doesn't try to come back too soon.  And while they have made an occasional trade over the years, I was lamenting that it is the exception for this FO, not the rule.  The trades for Odo and Maeda were nice, but far more often it is the other way, major leaguers for prospects (and I considered the trade for Maeda a major leaguer for major leagure, as Graterol was already on the major league roster).  And if the injury history is the main reason we would hesitate to make a deal like this then we never would have even considered the deal we just gave Buck, so that is a non starter for me.

I just feel this would be a nice gamble to take, kind of like the MP deal a few years back, if it wouldn't cost too much in prospects we know we can part with.  Maybe it is just the way my mind works, but it isn't confusing to me at all.  Sorry if I am not explaining the thought process well. 

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

 And while they have made an occasional trade over the years, I was lamenting that it is the exception for this FO, not the rule.  The trades for Odo and Maeda were nice, but far more often it is the other way, major leaguers for prospects (and I considered the trade for Maeda a major leaguer for major leagure, as Graterol was already on the major league roster).  And if the injury history is the main reason we would hesitate to make a deal like this then we never would have even considered the deal we just gave Buck, so that is a non starter for me.

I just feel this would be a nice gamble to take, kind of like the MP deal a few years back, if it wouldn't cost too much in prospects we know we can part with.  Maybe it is just the way my mind works, but it isn't confusing to me at all.  Sorry if I am not explaining the thought process well. 

Apparently you are assuming that trading prospects for major leaguers is a better strategy for building a playoff team / contender than trading established players for prospects.  If you look back at how playoff teams acquired the players on their roster you will find players that were traded for as prospects by FAR exceed trades for established players.  It's not even remotely close, especially among below average revenue teams. 

Don't believe me?  Pick a few playoff teams outside the top 10 in revenue.  Go to Fangraphs and select that team and select the given year.  Now look at how their top players by WAR were acquired.  Cleveland and Tampa will stand out.  They have acquired a lot of good players as prospects.

You will have a very different point of view if you are willing to go through this exercise and let the facts speak for themselves.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

Not sure why.  I never suggested that he would pitch more than 100 innings in his first season back; I specifically suggested he would fit in on a team that doesn't ask pitchers to pitch too many innings, preferring that the BP take a big part of the load, though a 28 year old might be able to if he makes a full recovery and doesn't try to come back too soon.  And while they have made an occasional trade over the years, I was lamenting that it is the exception for this FO, not the rule.  The trades for Odo and Maeda were nice, but far more often it is the other way, major leaguers for prospects (and I considered the trade for Maeda a major leaguer for major leagure, as Graterol was already on the major league roster).  And if the injury history is the main reason we would hesitate to make a deal like this then we never would have even considered the deal we just gave Buck, so that is a non starter for me.

I just feel this would be a nice gamble to take, kind of like the MP deal a few years back, if it wouldn't cost too much in prospects we know we can part with.  Maybe it is just the way my mind works, but it isn't confusing to me at all.  Sorry if I am not explaining the thought process well. 

Brusdar had pitched 9.2 innings for the Twins before he was traded. Our definitions of major leaguers vs prospects are very different. He threw 23.1 innings for the Dodgers his first year there. Your original argument was for wanting major leaguers because they'd established they were major leaguers. 9.2 innings is certainly not establishing that you're a major leaguer. You're moving the goal posts on me a little there.

I don't know if you're being serious about their usage of the starting staff or not. If you're trading for Glasnow as a "true ace," as you described him, the Twins would absolutely be looking for significantly more than 100 innings for him. Berrios threw 121.2 innings for the Twins as their de facto "ace" last year and he was traded in July. Maeda threw 106.1 and he missed half the year with multiple injuries. Happ threw 98.1 and he missed starts before being traded in July. Ober threw 92.1 and he was on a strict pitch/innings limit in his 20 starts. Shoot, Griffin Jax threw 82 innings and only made 14 starts. Not expecting Glasnow to get to more than 100 innings is even more confusing to me. You're now suggesting the Twins trade for a "true ace" that will pitch barely more than a bad closer (Colome threw 65 innings last year). Him being 28 doesn't have anything to do with him being able to throw 170+ innings that you'd want from him. He didn't do it before he was 28 and not coming off TJ so I'm not sure why him being 28 would suddenly make him able to do it when he couldn't when he was younger and not coming off surgery.

Buxton was a homegrown superstar. It took Buxton wanting to spend his entire career with 1 team to get that deal done. And took years of back and forth to get it figured out. They're very different situations. Not to mention this FO very clearly being far more weary of pitching injury struggles than position players. They also paid JD a ton with his injury concerns. They're more willing to take on position player injury risk than pitchers.

I don't have any problem with people wanting to take a gamble on him. And if the price is right every player should be a target. I just don't get people suggesting he's going to come here and be the savior when he's never pitched an entire season and will then be coming of TJ with 1 season of playable control. If they're trading a bag of BP balls for him so it's just a financial thing, cool. But talk of Duran and other top 10 prospects being the cost blows my mind. Glasnow isn't the pitcher to be sending top 10 prospects out for. There's nothing at all to suggest he's the missing piece to get them over the postseason hump in 2023 because there's nothing at all to suggest he can pitch an entire season and lead a postseason staff.

[Doyers in MN]

If we could get Glasnow for Jeffers and Duran I would do it any day of the week. We need a strong number one and he would be it!

[cHawk]

34 minutes ago, Doyers in MN said:

If we could get Glasnow for Jeffers and Duran I would do it any day of the week. We need a strong number one and he would be it!

Welcome to TD!

[Steve71]

I thought I read a blurb somewhere that the Rays were considering releasing Glasnow when faced with paying his arbitration salary in 2022 (for nothing) and then a bigger arbitration salary in 2023 on spec.  Total of nearly $9M for a limited number of innings in 2023 coming off TJS, with unknown results.  And that number could go up higher with the new CBA.  Heck, Glasnow might be a FA in 2023 under the new CBA, not arbitration eligible.

I certainly would take a flyer for a nominal prospect, but nothing like the package listed by the OP.  No.  Way.