Would a Twins Trade for Tyler Glasnow Make Sense?

[Nash Walker]

It’s not often a playoff team trades away their ace the following offseason, but the Tampa Bay Rays could do so with Tyler Glasnow. 

Baseball is a relatively simple game. Offseasons are usually just as simple, with contending teams adding to their rosters while clubs further away build for the future. The Rays are an exception to that rule. Fresh off an American League pennant in 2020, the Rays turned around and traded their frontline starter, Blake Snell, to the Padres. 

Snell then had the worst season of his career, furthering the Rays’ impeccable timing on pitchers (but maybe not Joe Ryan). Constantly churning their roster and trading away pricey players for elite prospects, the Rays embody the notion that no player is “untouchable.”

Enter Tyler Glasnow. The six-foot-8 monster from California is a must-watch when he takes the mound. Glasnow, 28, pairs a triple-digits fastball with a wipeout hook. Glasnow has struck out 36% of hitters since 2019, the third-highest rate behind Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. 

Glasnow’s name floated at the trade deadline, with Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin reporting potential possibilities. 

Among 114 starters who’ve pitched at least 200 innings over the last three seasons, Glasnow ranks third in ERA (2.80), xFIP (2.78), and opponent’s average (.185), fourth in FIP (2.87), and sixth in SIERA (3.03). 

For as dominant as he is on the mound, he’s not on it very often. Glasnow hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2018 when he threw 111 2/3. Injuries have riddled his career, and 2021 was no exception. 

Glasnow was rocking a 2.66 ERA and 36% strikeout rate before he got hurt last June. His season ended with Tommy John surgery in August, and he’s likely to miss all of the 2022 season. A free agent after 2023, Glasnow is projected to make $5.8 million in his third year of arbitration (2022), with a raise to $8 or $9 million in year four (2023). 

Trading for Glasnow would be an investment for 2023, when the Twins hope to be back in contention. Think of the first Michael Pineda contract, when he rehabbed in year one and contributed in year two. That deal went well, and there’s a “back pocket” aspect to a trade like this. 

A trade makes sense if the Rays are looking to shed payroll and cash in on Glasnow before he inevitably reaches free agency. There’s no telling how many starts the Twins could expect from Glasnow in 2023, who will have thrown only 206 innings the past four seasons. 

Like Byron Buxton, assessing Glasnow’s trade value is a tricky proposition. He’s an elite player with health a major question mark. MLB Trade Simulator says a Ryan Jeffers and Jhoan Duran package would satisfy both sides. If the Rays wanted quantity, Matt Canterino, Keoni Cavaco, Brent Rooker, Caleb Thielbar, and Matt Wallner match up well.

As Rosenthal eloquently wrote, Glasnow coming off Tommy John surgery is probably a better bet than any prospect the Twins would trade for him. Additionally, the inside track to an extension is compelling and offers an attractive opportunity for more value. Whether a long-term investment in Glasnow is wise is another question. Again, when healthy, he's unquestionably an ace. The Twins haven't had one of those over a decade. 

Glasnow’s price in a trade would likely be less than that of Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, or even Chris Bassitt. It’s a high-upside move that could give the Twins a weapon in 2023 and potentially beyond. 

What do you think? Should the Twins make a run at Tyler Glasnow? Comment below!

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Order the Offseason Handbook
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email 

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

You present a challenging idea.  But I like it if we do not sign any of the final free agents to more than a one year contract.  Otherwise I would love a Glasnow, Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Winder rotation in 2023.

[MN_ExPat]

Interesting thought.  Given Tampa's history, he would cost a king's ransom, and I for one, would be very hesitant to pay that price (cough...Pittsburgh...cough ), but at the very least, it is an intriguing thought exercise. 

[Matthew Taylor]

Love it. Unique opportunity to lock up an ace.

[Nash Walker]

Just now, Matthew Taylor said:

Love it. Unique opportunity to lock up an ace.

Love *you*!

[Dave The Dastardly]

Nope. Would rather we not trade the prospects we've supposedly developed for a wounded warrior. Trading pitchers we can put to the test this year for a guy that may or may not be able to pitch for at least a season and a half seems short-sighted.

[Dman]

It feels like a trade like this is a move you make when you have more knowns in your rotation.  You are only getting Glasnow for one year so things need to line up.  You could be giving up good future assets with long term team control for one great year that might not matter or if injured again in 2023 then for nothing.  Timing doesn't feel right and too risky for my blood but then I guess that is probably why I am not GM material.

[baul0010]

"Additionally, the inside track to an extension is compelling and offers an attractive opportunity for more value. Whether a long-term investment in Glasnow is wise is another question."

Has there been any talk of Glasnow being willing to take a below market deal?  

AND

If you didn't think investing in Glasnow is wise, why on earth would you trade for the guy when you know he'll be out for 2022 after tommy john surgery.  If you don't feel confident that he'll be good, don't waste trade assets to be the ones to find out.  That's how you turn into the Pittsburgh Pirates.

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

Interesting thought.  Given Tampa's history, he would cost a king's ransom, and I for one, would be very hesitant to pay that price (cough...Pittsburgh...cough ), but at the very least, it is an intriguing thought exercise. 

That is exactly what I wrote before reading your comment!   First thing that popped into my head was the poor Pirates.

[tony&rodney]

The most important consideration related to a potential trade for Glasnow is the Twins budget. He simply doesn't fit if the Twins are cutting back towards $100 million or so. The unknown is how Tampa Bay values certain Twins prospects. I would love to see a trade for Glasnow and Walls. Your offers might be enough for Walls too. The Rays have a packed 40 person roster and would want players that are not needing to be rostered at this time. This is especially true because neither Walls nor Glasnow figure into their 2022 plans.

[chpettit19]

No thanks. Would I love an arm like that in the Twins rotation? Absolutely. But trading top prospects for 100 innings of Glasnow in 2 years doesn't sound like a win in any way to me.

It's similar to the Buxton situation in that if it weren't for injuries Glasnow would never be in the Twins price range, but this FO is already super against long-term deals for pitchers. I don't see any chance they'd extend Glasnow with his injury risk. Add in that this FO is not likely to just let him rip in 2023 after coming off a lost season after 2 shortened seasons and I don't see any reason to think the Twins would be acquiring any more than 100 innings from him. If he spends 25 innings getting his feet under him again then you're looking at 75 innings of nasty Glasnow. Having someone like him would be a move to make for a playoff run. Coming off 63, 57.1, 88, and 0 inning pitched seasons do we really think Glasnow is going to throw an ace's workload in the regular season then have elite production still in the tank for a playoff run? I'm not betting any real future assets on that. 

[Doctor Gast]

Intriguing. I'd love to have Glasnow leading our rotation. But I'd rather have someone who can help them this season. Only having him for 1 season and what he'd cost will probably be not worth it especially from TB. Unless I can count on him extending, which I'm almost willing to bet he won't.

[Doctor Gast]

29 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

That is exactly what I wrote before reading your comment!   First thing that popped into my head was the poor Pirates.

I don't feel sorry for the Pirates at all. Their problems were their pitchers coaching that Cole and Glasnow criticized extensively.

[SkyBlueWaters]

A deal like this would be a lot more appealing to me if someone in the Glasnow camp signaled that he was open to a multiyear deal, somewhat similar to the Pineda deal where he was paid to convalesce, and then more upon his return, only covering more years for Glasnow.  (Maeda signed such a team-friendly long-term deal with LA, albeit while healthy.)

Could/would the Rays permit Glasnow to talk about it with another team?

The Twins have a lot of talent, much of it in or approaching primetime. Front-end starters are obviously our biggest deficiency. 

I suppose it makes sense to write off 2022 this way, but it kind of *pains* me to consider dealing away valuable assets for a guy who had TJ surgery last August.

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

Relying on not one but two SPs coming off TJ surgery does not seem like a good idea.

[Historyking88]

I’ve been saying this for months. Don’t think I would give up Duran for him but 2-3 top 30 prospects for the upside of Glasnow is worth the risk when they are hopefully ready to contend in 2023. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Historyking88 said:

I’ve been saying this for months. Don’t think I would give up Duran for him but 2-3 top 30 prospects for the upside of Glasnow is worth the risk when they are hopefully ready to contend in 2023. 

What do you expect out of Glasnow in 2023? Since 2018 he's thrown 111.2, 63, 57.1, and 88 total innings per season. Next year he will throw 0 innings. What kind of workload do you think he'll be ready for in 2023 and do you think he hits the ground running or will have to spend time knocking the rust off?

[RJA]

I admit Glasnow has great talent, but he doesn't see the diamond enough to realize his potential.  The Twins have shied away from free agent pitchers thinking a 3 or 4 year contract is too risky.  So why would they trade for a player coming off TJ who will not pitch this year and will be in his first year back from TJ in 23?  I can't think of a bigger risk than that.  I cannot believe given his past and TJ that he would even pitch a hundred innings in 23, and then he is a free agent.  Now, let's assume I am wrong and he pitches 140-150 innings of great baseball.  Then he will be a free agent who will command at least a 3 year contract at a significant salary which is what the Twins traditionally avoid.  Finally, the Twins really need help this year.  If they are willing to trade Jeffers and Duran, I would try to get someone that could help the next couple of years.  Interesting topic.  

[MABB1959]

Can't hurt but why are the Twins always signing or waiting for the hope and pray players.  Pretty much sick and tired of it.

[Rosterman]

Ultimately, the Twins need pitchers that will throw innings. You pay him for NOT pitching in 2022, and who knows what he will pitch in his walk season.

 

You give up a  player/s for someone you need to add to the 40-man until you can injure-reserve him come SPring Taring end.

 

He contributes nothing for 2022. You lose out on players (unless you are trading, say, a Lewis Thorpe who needs to make the majors in 2022). 

 

Again, the Twins need to develop pitchers that can throw innings, as well as add pitchers as free agents who can also throw innings.

 

 

[wsnydes]

No thanks.  If he were a FA I'd definitely take a flier on him, kind of like what they did with Pineda.  I'm not trading the prospects TB will demand though.

[miller761]

We can't sign a decent FA pitcher. Why would this guy be any different?

Looks like we are committed to the young guys - most of them will give us the same or more amount of innings than Glasnow for more years and less money.

[jimbo92107]

Costs too much in prospects. 2022 is when the Twins should be trying out as many prospects as they can at the mlb level. Gotta have 'em around to do that. 

I'd still rather see Zach Grienke come in and spread pitching tips around to the kids. 

[TwinsDr2021]

18 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Nope. Would rather we not trade the prospects we've supposedly developed for a wounded warrior. Trading pitchers we can put to the test this year for a guy that may or may not be able to pitch for at least a season and a half seems short-sighted.

Haven't all or most of the prospects been hurt as well?

I will add giving up a major league catcher for one year is too much, the second trade seems high as well. To me this is the kind of trade you make for a Rooker, Cavaco, and some arm in low A.

[Johnny Ringo]

Golly. You would have him for 1 year (2023) after his TJ recovery before he becomes a free agent. With the Berrios episode, the Twins have demonstrated their lack of appetite for market-based SP contracts. So what are you going to give up for that one questionable year? Now for the bad news; the Tampa Bay FO has proven to be far better than ours. That is not really even an opinion. That is pretty close to a closed-case fact. They have done way more with way less. So almost by definition, if you could strike a deal with them; you have paid too much.

As long as I am taking the punch bowl away, there is a better chance that Aaron Rodgers signs with the Twins than Zack Greinke. He's a gazillionaire. Do you really think his coda will be giving free tips to eager youngsters while smiling his way through a 65 win season in freezing weather? The Hallmark Channel called. The script has been rejected. Way too syrupy. It tested poorly even with the ladies in the nursing home. 

[Mark G]

Throughout the comment section I see two themes:  One, the thought that we should not trade prospects for a pitcher who is currently injured.  Two, we don't know if this pitcher will pitch much if he comes back from surgery, as he has not pitched many innings since 2018.  

Both of these thoughts confuse me somewhat.  We are more than willing to trade major league players for prospects, year after year after year after year after........sorry, but we don't ever seem to be willing to part with said prospects for major league players.  Why?  Major league players have already proven themselves to some degree, prospects have not, or they would be major league players.  And why do we care about how many innings a pitcher might pitch for a team who loves 4 inning starts and 4 relievers afterward?  Seems he would fit right in with our philosophy, wouldn't he?  Save him for the stretch, and all that.  I guess it strikes me if we aren't willing to make a trade like this, assuming the cost is within reason for a pitcher out for '22, then we are taking the position that we will only use free agency to build on our farm, and assume that the farm will always produce and the free agents will always be worth their signing.  How has that worked out so far?  

In my extremely humble opinion, go for it if the cost is right and take a chance on a true ace, which does not appear to be on the horizon as of right now (hope I am wrong on that).  What have we got to lose, except a couple of prospects which may or may not ever be major league players.  It is a gamble, but one worth taking at this point in time.  

[Trov]

In all trades, if the price is right you should do it.  However, this trade really questions if the price will be right.  As noted, Rays always seem to know when to trade someone, getting Glasnow for a trade of Archer, who was terrible after his trade.  Snell was not good after his trade.  Davide Price is one of only a few guys that got traded by Rays that had good value after they left.  I am always hesitant to buy from the Rays.  Selling to them is not so bad, but trying to get an established player from them always seems to work out for Rays. 

That being said, if the price Glasnow is low that you can wait for a year to use him, then take a flier on him.  However, why would Rays trade him at lowest of his value?  They never do that, and they would not take pennies on the dollar for him.  I believe they would much rather have him come back some time end of season, if healthy to showcase him and trade next off-season.  If not that, then they would wait until next season and trade mid-season unless they need him to compete and feel returns are not worth it.  They have been known to let guys walk too. 

My guess only way Rays trade him now is if teams are really betting on him coming back at same level, and they will sign him.  Should the Twins be willing to deal for an injured Glasnow at a price of a nearly if not fully healthy Glasnow, because I highly doubt Rays will sell for cheap. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 hours ago, RJA said:

I admit Glasnow has great talent, but he doesn't see the diamond enough to realize his potential.  The Twins have shied away from free agent pitchers thinking a 3 or 4 year contract is too risky.  So why would they trade for a player coming off TJ who will not pitch this year and will be in his first year back from TJ in 23?  I can't think of a bigger risk than that.  I cannot believe given his past and TJ that he would even pitch a hundred innings in 23, and then he is a free agent.  Now, let's assume I am wrong and he pitches 140-150 innings of great baseball.  Then he will be a free agent who will command at least a 3 year contract at a significant salary which is what the Twins traditionally avoid.  Finally, the Twins really need help this year.  If they are willing to trade Jeffers and Duran, I would try to get someone that could help the next couple of years.  Interesting topic.  

I agree with RJA's summary.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Golly. You would have him for 1 year (2023) after his TJ recovery before he becomes a free agent. With the Berrios episode, the Twins have demonstrated their lack of appetite for market-based SP contracts. So what are you going to give up for that one questionable year? Now for the bad news; the Tampa Bay FO has proven to be far better than ours. That is not really even an opinion. That is pretty close to a closed-case fact. They have done way more with way less. So almost by definition, if you could strike a deal with them; you have paid too much.

As long as I am taking the punch bowl away, there is a better chance that Aaron Rodgers signs with the Twins than Zack Greinke. He's a gazillionaire. Do you really think his coda will be giving free tips to eager youngsters while smiling his way through a 65 win season in freezing weather? The Hallmark Channel called. The script has been rejected. Way too syrupy. It tested poorly even with the ladies in the nursing home. 

The Rays have done a great job for sure.  However, the twins most recent deal with them looks pretty good at the moment.  We got Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman for 2 months of Nelson Cruz.  His wRC+ of 96 was 12th on the Ray's team forthose 2 months. The Rays lost their division series 3-1.  IDK what Ryan and Strotman will contribute but I would bet 5 years from now we will see this trade as a great deal for the Twins.  

[Karbo]

22 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

You present a challenging idea.  But I like it if we do not sign any of the final free agents to more than a one year contract.  Otherwise I would love a Glasnow, Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Winder rotation in 2023.

Don't forget Maeda!