Let's Not Give Up Yet On Aaron Sabato

[jmlease1]

37 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Sorry, should have specified before Professional ball... my bad  

Hey, you're 100% right about everything except his time at Ft. Myers. He may have just needed to a) find his footing in professional ball, and b) get out of the damn Florida State League. I certainly hope so. But the expectation was that he would mash from the start and advance quickly. Instead he was a mess for most of the time in the FSL. (I have to admit, while I like seeing guys draw walks at any stage in their career, it's less meaningful in the low minors, when many of the pitchers can't control their stuff yet)

We'll see what Sabato does this year. It's going to be all about making consistent hard contact on pitches in the zone. He's shown he can hit the ball a long way. He's shown he can lay off pitches out of the zone. But he'll get eaten up by the time he gets to AA if he can't do damage consistently when he swings the bat.

I'm not as concerned about a drafting a guy who might not reach the majors until he's 25 or 26. He'll be under team control for his prime and you may well have better choices with options between AAA & MLB and managing your 40 man roster against Rule 5 drafts. (This is the biggest challenge with some of these international signings at age 16; you end up having to protect them on the 40 man before you even know who they are as players, while they're still down in A-ball.)

[bean5302]

There are red flags all over the place with Sabato. Had his results not improved dramatically to close the year out, I would have been okay with writing him off as bust. I think it's rare a successful MLB player struggles in the low minors and Sabato's plate approach is passive. He waits for mistake pitches and crushes them. Unfortunately for him, mistake pitches generally become fewer and fewer as you move up the minors.

I think he'll be exposed badly in AA or AAA as the pitcher talent level jumps dramatically and their control and finesse take a leap up as well, but I think he did enough damage to close the year out to keep an eye on him. It's not like it matters, though. He doesn't need a 40 man roster spot right now so there's no risk to letting him play.

 

[mikelink45]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

C'mon, You expected him to jump right to the Big Leagues?

 

He got his feet wet in Ft. Myers. The Florida Leagues were notorious last season for pitching starters 3 innings, soemtimes 4 at the most. You were seeing such a wide variety of pitchers. Yes, it wasn't the Instructional League, but still...everyone of those guys you are facing are equal (and some better) than you.

 

Plus you are adjusting from collegiate bats to the wooden ones.

 

He advanced to Cedar Rapids, made some adjustments while facing more seasonsed (okay, that is an understatement) pitchers and did well.

 

2022 will be a good year to see what he does, starting with spring training, hopefully at Cedar Rapids, and then a kick to Wichita, maybe sooner rather than later if the Twins can stop signing minor league free agents. 

 

He has to learn to stay away from his weakness swings (like Sano), but is showing that he can at least get a base-on-ball. Coaches, film will hopefully make that better.

 

Will he be a big bopper than can hit for average? Let's wait until he has at least two seasons under his belt. 

 

 

I think he can be great, but I see him as trade bait, not as a Twin

 

[Elvis777]

Way to many negatives on Sabato.  It’s not where you start but finish.  I haven’t seen anyone else as explosive once he found his groove.  Y’all don’t know or forget he didn’t play ball for almost 2 seasons.   He was the Number 1 hitter in D1 baseball over torkelson and Martin.  Was injured 2nd half of freshman year and roughed that through.  Also he is stuck by writer opinions who know nothing .  His defense is great.  Kid was a ss through high school ranked #2 in ny.   Baseball in itself, Pro ball especially is not easy.   The formula is there on base percentage is really good.  Average is over rated.   He’s a different player game changer. Only to get better.  I saw his grind everyday in lineup watching games.  Kid hit 20 home runs 2 nd in minors in walks had great fielding percentage.   Despite brutal start that should say something.  All prospects are not a given but to say non talented or bust on any of them is not accurate.  They are blessed to pursue a dream.

development isn’t over night . He’s 1 season in im in on Sabato.   

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, Elvis777 said:

Way to many negatives on Sabato.  It’s not where you start but finish.  I haven’t seen anyone else as explosive once he found his groove.  Y’all don’t know or forget he didn’t play ball for almost 2 seasons.   He was the Number 1 hitter in D1 baseball over torkelson and Martin.  Was injured 2nd half of freshman year and roughed that through.  Also he is stuck by writer opinions who know nothing .  His defense is great.  Kid was a ss through high school ranked #2 in ny.   Baseball in itself, Pro ball especially is not easy.   The formula is there on base percentage is really good.  Average is over rated.   He’s a different player game changer. Only to get better.  I saw his grind everyday in lineup watching games.  Kid hit 20 home runs 2 nd in minors in walks had great fielding percentage.   Despite brutal start that should say something.  All prospects are not a given but to say non talented or bust on any of them is not accurate.  They are blessed to pursue a dream.

development isn’t over night . He’s 1 season in im in on Sabato.   

Sabato played in 2019, 2020 and 2021. His last game in 2020 was on 3/11/20 with North Carolina vs. Virginia Military Institute and the rest of the season was canceled. His first game in 2021 was 5/4/21 and Sabato participated in MiLB Spring Training. There's a 1 year and not quite 2 month gap there, but Sabato also participated in MiLB Spring Training activities before that. If you're talking about missing time prior to 2019, I struggle to see how that's relevant in 2021.

In the linked article, Sabato talks about his plate approach. "Sabato: “It’s hunting mistakes and strikes. You don’t want to swing at the pitcher’s best pitches. That goes for any hitter. You’re not going to be successful doing that. For me, it’s being patient, yet not too patient. I can’t be not swinging it fastballs that are in my hot zone, so it’s about being prepared on every pitch, knowing that if a mistake is coming, I’m ready for it. That and being disciplined enough to lay off certain pitches that might be a strike, but aren’t something I’m going to be able to do a whole lot with.”"

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-prospect-aaron-sabato-on-mashing-and-hopefully-not-dhing/

Sabato planning to not swing at strikes and waiting for mistake pitches doesn't seem like a recipe for success to me since, as I stated above, I believe those become far less frequent as batters progress through the minors.

.189/.365/.357 at Low A for a 22 year old college-drafted bat only slugger is abysmal. Sabato performed far better at High A across 97 plate appearances with a .253/.402/.613 line to give some hope, but that stat line from Fort Myers doesn't just disappear. The 20% walk rate is nice, but unsustainable with a K rate in excess of 20% IMHO (and Sabato is north of 30%). Sabato admits he's a poor runner and it's clear 1B or DH is how he's viewed. 6'2" and 230lbs, Sabato claims he's leaner than he was when he was playing shortstop, but the height and weight would suggest extremely high athleticism (fast runner) if he actually was well conditioned. I've seen the "I'm not overweight, I'm athletic" line from Twins prospects and players before. It makes me skeptical and his own comments and scouts add to my skepticism. 6'2 and 230lbs = NFL Fullback. Fournette (6'1 and 228) was clocked at 33ft/sec during a 90 yard run... in pads. That's faster than Byron Buxton's listed sprint speed. The Twins also view Sabato as a 1B / DH only candidate from my understanding. If he was athletic and had SS skills, the Twins would at least be working him out at 3B.

As much as you may personally like Sabato, his comments, apparent plate approach, apparent lack of conditioning and poor results at Low-A paint good reasons to be a bit bearish on him. 

[Elvis777]

Wow.  Haters hate.  Sabato was a SS. Not if. He Runs a 6.8 60.  I don’t believe that’s slow, especially for his size.  Surprised he said that but things could get misinterpreted I didn’t interview him.  Regarding approach I understand what he’s saying .  I don’t think you do. If you ever played the game it would make more sense.  Many greats struggled 1st year and even 2.   Seeing him and seeing what he did with the kernels there’s great stuff there and I’m optimistic.  Kid hit 20 HR and was 2nd in minors in walks.  Finished season very strong yet your focused on his start of pro ball  in ft Myers.  As a twins fan I hope he continues to have success.