3 Immediate Priorities for the Twins Once the Lockout Ends

[Nick Nelson]

At some point, theoretically, the MLB lockout will conclude, and teams will make a mad dash to round out their rosters ahead of spring training and the regular season.

Here's where the Twins will need to immediately take action once that happens.

#1: Complete a Trade for a Starting Pitcher

I've heard rumblings that the Twins were deep into trade talks on multiple fronts before the lockout commenced. If true, hopefully this generates momentum for a deal to materialize quickly once a new CBA agreement is reached.

The upper tier of free agency is mostly picked over, leaving trades as really the only avenue for Minnesota to add the kind of difference-making rotation help it needs. Many possibilities exist. At The Athletic, Dan Hayes teamed up with writers from other beats to postulate Twins trade ideas, and they all seem appealing to me in their own ways. 

As I discussed recently when taking stock of the organization and its talent assets, the Twins have some clear areas of redundant value, giving them plenty of ammo to work with. I would say the likelihood of at least one trade for an established starting pitcher is extremely high, although their level of ambition with such a move is to be determined.

#2: Sign Yusei Kikuchi, Zack Greinke, or Michael Pineda

Their passive approach ahead of the shutdown means the Twins have basically missed out on their opportunity to target front-of-rotation upside in free agency. But they still have money to spend and minimal assurances. 

In my mind, signing one or more from the above trio is how you accomplish that. These are proven veteran commodities who can provide innings – potentially quality innings. 

Greinke is a horse, and basically hasn't missed a start in five years. He's topped 200 innings nine times in his career. His velocity and performance have tailed off in the past couple seasons, but the 38-year-old former Cy Young winner would bring tremendous experience and perspective to a young group.

Kikuchi could hardly be described as an "innings eater" (he hasn't thrown more than 162 in a season), but like Greinke, he takes the ball every fifth day. Outside of a brief stint on the COVID list last July, Kikuchi never missed a start in Seattle, and while his overall results haven't been great (4.97 ERA, 4.93 FIP), there may be untapped potential in the former NPB star. 

Pineda's name is not associated with "reliability" given the time he missed in Minnesota due to suspensions and injuries, but he's a steady veteran performer whose presence would make a world of difference for a Twins staff that is lacking certified credibility at the moment.

Dylan Bundy on his own is a very uninspiring pickup for the Twins rotation. Dylan Bundy in addition to one of the free agents above, plus a trade acquisition who's better than either of them? Now that's a solid offseason.

#3: Figure Out the Plan at Shortstop

Even though Minnesota's need at shortstop is glaring, I place it as a secondary priority behind pitching. Why? Two reasons.

First, because I don't find it quite as essential to the team's success. The Twins have enough quality and balance throughout their lineup that I trust the overall position player group, even without a major addition at shortstop. 

I can't say the same about the rotation. There's no real base to work with.

Secondly, the Twins have an in-house option available to solve the shortstop problem. While there's no player in the organization right now who you could look at and say, "Alright there's our #1 starting pitcher," they could turn back to Jorge Polanco at short and call it done. No one's saying that's an ideal course of action, but it's a reasonable one.

I doubt it's the direction this front office will go. They seem firmly committed to Polanco as a second baseman. But that means they will need to address their complete void at the shortstop position, and quickly, because external options have already thinned out. 

Carlos Correa is seeking upwards of $350 million, and likely off the Twins' radar. Trevor Story is a possibility, but not a strong one. That leaves the best remaining free agent options as José Iglesias and Andrelton Simmons, followed by a bunch of backup-caliber options. 

Will they make a splash on Story? Will they go back to Andrelton? Maybe gamble on Iglesias' late-season breakout in Boston? Whatever their plan, they better act on it fast, because the Twins aren't the only team with a need at shortstop, and the musical chairs are running out.

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[tony&rodney]

Your assessment seems correct to me. What I do not know is what will be done. The Twins obviously need pitching and a trade for a good pitcher is possible and necessary. I'm unsure about the budget. If there is room, and he wants to pitch at Target Field, I am all for Greinke. We have heard all of the arguments against his addition but you mention exactly why he is a solid addition. The Twins do need a shortstop and Trevor Story or maybe Villar might work but that seems unlikely. I want to know what it would take to get Taylor Walls from Tampa Bay, because the cost might be reasonable and Walls has a decent eye and his bat will improve greatly from his rookie year and he already has a great glove. Walls is also a switch hitter.

[cHawk]

Polanco should not play short. Simmons should not be resigned.

I’m not sure what they want to do at SS but it better not be either of those.

[Rosterman]

Grienke should be able to get a competitive offer from anyone but the Twins. A team would welcome him. Because he is a known innings eater. If he signs with a lesser team, it would behoove that team to flip him at the trade deadline if need be.

 

Pineda has enjoyed success with the Twins. How much is he worth? I wondered after the Twins failed to find any takers at the tading deadline. I imagine he wants a multi year deal (two years with a third year option minimum). See if that happens.

 

The Twins have to find a way to egt Arraez and Polanco and Donaldson and maybe Gordon and Miranda in the line-up. What all those names alck is shortstop ability. Watch the Twins pick up the lowest available opportunist that they can to fill this hole.

 

I still feel the Twins need a bonafide closer...unless they have no desire to compete at all in 2022. Then, they can stick with what they have, tryout Alcala for the job, maybe even showcase Duran for their future.

[jimbo92107]

I'd love to see Zach Grienke not just pitch for the Twins, but also become an assistant pitching coach. That guy has encyclopedic knowledge of all things pitching. Also, he knows something vital: How to get guys out without a high-90's fast ball. Teach that to the kids, sensei Zach!

[baul0010]

Here's where the Twins will need to immediately take action once that happens.

Immediate action.... Doesn't sound like the right F.O. for the job.  What's the plan if we wait until a week into spring training?  That could also be a good article to write.

 

[rv78]

Dylan Bundy, signing one of the 3 Free Agents you list and a trade for 1 pitcher who's better than both is a solid off-season? I started laughing when I read that. Yes by Twins standards that is solid. #1. Greinke is an aging vet who's best seasons are behind him, which makes him exactly the type of player the Twins try to sign. #2, Kikuchi and Pineda would not be difference makers, so again right down the Twins alley. #3. Trade for someone better than all 3, yes, if you trade away players that are holes in the lineup, like Sano and Kepler. Doubt that will happen. Instead it'll be a good hitter like Arraez and or a prospect that they should hang onto and would be able to if they used the Free Agent market like they should in the first place instead of waiting for left-overs.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I'd love to see Zach Grienke not just pitch for the Twins, but also become an assistant pitching coach. That guy has encyclopedic knowledge of all things pitching. Also, he knows something vital: How to get guys out without a high-90's fast ball. Teach that to the kids, sensei Zach!

I think Greinke would be less happy to be in MN than Ricky Nolasco

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

What's the plan if we wait until a week into spring training? 

I agree with this sentiment. The Twins have no reason to move fast. At this point they've missed out on the chance to choose the players they really want. They need to be opportunistic because the rest of the shortened offseason will be a chaotic mess. I think they will grab another Kenny Rogers / Lance Lynn late bargain for the rotation. Call Philly and tell them you're willing to make their problem with Didi Gregorious go away for a price.

When you're shopping at the thrift store there's no reason to act immediately. Better to do some digging through the bins.

[jmlease1]

This is one of the reasons I think the Twins should go all-in on Trevor Story to play SS, who is an excellent defender at the position and a fine hitter who has some pop in his bat to go along with good plate control. I saw Dan Hayes trade proposals at The Athletic, and in order to get any of the pitchers on offer out there he was proposing giving up multiple of our best prospects and the response from the other side's beat guy was "probably not enough". If prospect capital is down in order to get a team-controlled pitcher that can slot in to the front of a rotation (and honestly, none of the pitchers being proposed were exactly Cy Young candidates: they're good pitchers who might be great in a year) then putting Arraez on the block might be the better way to go.

Lock down SS. Sign Pineda. Deal Arraez & a prospect or two (but not handing off Austin Martin after a season where suddenly prospect evaluators are dropping him rapidly down the rankings) for a frontline pitcher.

[Dman]

I think the trade scenarios offered by Hayes are a bit pie in the sky.  The Twins would be trading some of their best close to ready players for two years of another player because the Twins as proven in the Berrios trade don't like to extend pitchers.  They would be giving up a lot for two years and with a rotation of Ober, Ryan and Bundy just how good will this team\rotation be in 2022?  All three of those pitchers are pretty much unknowns at this point.  

Giving up Austin which is half of the Haul from the Berrios trade and including Canterino possibly a better pitcher than SWR it feels hollow to me.  Why not have just kept Berrios and extended him?  Sorry but I just don't see them getting that kind of trade for a starter done.  If they had a solid rotation already and were just missing a piece I could maybe see it but with so much up in the air on the pitching side it seems more likely a waste than a help.

They can and likely will try to pickup Pineda or someone like him but IMO  I think that will be it.

[TopGunn#22]

I think you have the priorities right Nick.  Where the Twins stand right now with their starting pitching is untenable.  They need SP's !  Not just in a trade but also a FA signing of some sort.  Maybe Danny Duffy ?  But I've lost track of his health status.  I'm not sure he'd be ready right out of the gate.  As for SS:  Signing Story would solve the problem if the ownership and FO cared to spend the money.  I'm not expecting that.  Trading for Mondesi, DeJong, Didi etc... WOULD be a plan I could get behind.  NONE of those 3 would cost a great deal and we have a hole at SS you could drive a semi through.  I'd certainly look to pursue something like that and hope it's on the FO's "To Do" list.

[mikelink45]

We know that the FO will make something happen - it is their MO to move late in the off season, but I fear the loss of a young pitcher who might be better in the long run than what we get.  I get a laugh out of going for a pitcher with two years of control.  We panicked when Berrios had only two years left. 

[mike8791]

You've pretty much got the priorities right, Nick.  The needs are urgent if this team is really going to return to contention this year, but "urgency" is a word unknown in Twin's lexicon, so your priorities are highly unlikely to occur with this risk-averse ownership and FO.

But if we are going to dream, let's push signing of Rodon to the top of the list.  He will be costly(at least $20MM/yr) but he won't require a long term contract, thereby lessening burden of his contract.  I like Hayes' suggestion of going hard after Montas, but as Dan says, only if Twins commit to signing him long term.  If that is actually the game plan, then including Martin or Lewis makes sense, but would give up 2 of our top 10 pitching prospects not named Canterino or Winder.  Sands and Balazovic should get the A's attention.  And any of the 3 you mention, Greinke  Kikuchi, or Pineda(in that order) would totally change the 2022 outlook.  While we do have to give up some prospects, the loss is manageable as 2 of our 3 open rotation spots are filled by FA signings. 

The only other suggestion is the Twins need a late inning pen addition - someone like Tepera, McHugh, or even Jannsen if Pohlad could be persuaded to loosen his purse strings to at least $140MM.  Will any of these moves happen?  Very doubtful, but certainly in the realm of possibility. 

[Major League Ready]

24 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think the trade scenarios offered by Hayes are a bit pie in the sky.  The Twins would be trading some of their best close to ready players for two years of another player because the Twins as proven in the Berrios trade don't like to extend pitchers.  They would be giving up a lot for two years and with a rotation of Ober, Ryan and Bundy just how good will this team\rotation be in 2022?  All three of those pitchers are pretty much unknowns at this point.  

Giving up Austin which is half of the Haul from the Berrios trade and including Canterino possibly a better pitcher than SWR it feels hollow to me.  Why not have just kept Berrios and extended him?  Sorry but I just don't see them getting that kind of trade for a starter done.  If they had a solid rotation already and were just missing a piece I could maybe see it but with so much up in the air on the pitching side it seems more likely a waste than a help.

They can and likely will try to pickup Pineda or someone like him but IMO  I think that will be it.

I agree Doc.  They are not going to be inclined to trade short-term assets for long-term assets.  However, I could see it happening if the acquiring team was willing to pay enough for Arraez or Kepler or a pitching prospect they value far less than the acquiring team.  Miami actually seems like the most likely trade partner.  Not because they necessarily want the assets we have to trade but they are in the unique position of being very deep in pitching and very thin on offense. 

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you that SP is our #1 priority, that is an understatement. But you're understating our need at SS, Polanco cannot be an option at SS for reasons that have been thoroughly debated. I'd rather get Goodrum and have him, Palacio and Lewis fight it it out which by far isn't my 1st option.

Arraez best value for us is used in a trade for SP with a team that need him. If FO can't pull the trigger then use him primarily as DH, even give him a shot at 1B or continue him as one 3B back up. But not 2B.

I also see a need a dependable backend BP piece and CF back up/ 4th OF. We can't depend that Celestino or Austin will step right in, although I'd love to see that happen.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Instead it'll be a good hitter like Arraez and or a prospect that they should hang onto and would be able to if they used the Free Agent market like they should in the first place instead of waiting for left-overs.

Trades have consistently proven to be a better and safer method of acquiring impact pitching than free agency over the years. 

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

But you're understating our need at SS, Polanco cannot be an option at SS for reasons that have been thoroughly debated. I'd rather get Goodrum and have him, Palacio and Lewis fight which by far isn't my 1st option.

Those reasons remain uncompelling to me. The idea that starting Niko Goodrum at shortstop (or some other marginal FA behind Simmons/Iglesias) in order to keep Polanco at 2B is absurd. People are REALLY buying that much into the Twins' stated logic about his injury risk and such? Again: the guy was a starting SS for back-to-back division winners before last year. 

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I also see a need a.... CF back up/ 4th OF. We can't depend that Celestino or Austin will step right in, although I'd love to see that happen.

Kepler is a perfectly acceptable backup CF

[Omardog]

Moving Polanco back to shortstop is not "reasonable."  We learned he cannot play the position in a reliable way, and after repairing his ankles he moved to second base and had excellent results last season.  Why mess that up and return him to a position where he will disappoint?

[RJA]

55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Trades have consistently proven to be a better and safer method of acquiring impact pitching than free agency over the years. 

Those reasons remain uncompelling to me. The idea that starting Niko Goodrum at shortstop (or some other marginal FA behind Simmons/Iglesias) in order to keep Polanco at 2B is absurd. People are REALLY buying that much into the Twins' stated logic about his injury risk and such? Again: the guy was a starting SS for back-to-back division winners before last year. 

Great article, Nick.  I like that you made suggestions about where to go from here.  I do not agree with the two comments above.  There are loads of free agent impact pitchers that have been successful.  Sure there are notable failures as nothing is fool proof, but many have been outstanding.  Plus, the problem with trades for the Twins is that they are very unlikely to sign these guys to long term contracts which means you are right back in the same situation in a year or two.  Why not sign one free agent for 3 or 4 years, and trade for one additional quality starter.  Then you could have a starting rotation of someone like Ray, someone like Montas, Ryan, Ober and let's add Pineda. Now with the young kids coming up, you may be set for 3 or 4 years.  If the Twins think they have a window, spend some money and go for it.  As for the second comment, I think Polanco is a superb second baseman.  He is not a superb shortstop.  If you move him, you effectively weaken 2 positions.  I think it is better to leave him where he is, and sign an excellent defensive shortstop, giving the young pitchers a great defense up the middle.  Just my humble thoughts.  Love this kind of discussion. 

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree with this sentiment. The Twins have no reason to move fast. At this point they've missed out on the chance to choose the players they really want. They need to be opportunistic because the rest of the shortened offseason will be a chaotic mess. I think they will grab another Kenny Rogers / Lance Lynn late bargain for the rotation. Call Philly and tell them you're willing to make their problem with Didi Gregorious go away for a price.

When you're shopping at the thrift store there's no reason to act immediately. Better to do some digging through the bins.

I was hoping we were going to go shopping at Kohl's earlier in the offseason.  Looks like bin digging at the Thrift Store will have to do.

[D.C Twins]

I don't really care who the Twins select from the remaining poo poo platter this year.... as long as they don't block too much time for the prospects to come up and play.

They need to let the kids play this year and figure out what they have and adjust accordingly next off season (Especially the pitchers).

Otherwise, we are going to end up in a 40-man roster crunch and lose talent

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Those reasons remain uncompelling to me. The idea that starting Niko Goodrum at shortstop (or some other marginal FA behind Simmons/Iglesias) in order to keep Polanco at 2B is absurd. People are REALLY buying that much into the Twins' stated logic about his injury risk and such? Again: the guy was a starting SS for back-to-back division winners before last year. 

Goodrum is uncompelling to me too, what I said it's better than starting Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B.

Us winning back to back division championships had nothing to do with our midfield defense, (it was an clear drawback). In '19 it was the juiced ball and most of our players honing in on that and '20 short season which bode well with our pitchers. 

There is a clear correlation of Polanco persistently playing SS and his drop in production and increase ankle problems. Only time away from SS in '21 we see his #s returning to expectations. I'm surprised that you don't want to see that.

I am unwilling to have Polanco back at SS to see him struggling in defense and his offense spiraling downward and us suffering at 2B. It's a recipe for disaster.

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, Omardog said:

Moving Polanco back to shortstop is not "reasonable."  We learned he cannot play the position in a reliable way, and after repairing his ankles he moved to second base and had excellent results last season.  Why mess that up and return him to a position where he will disappoint?

What is the basis for this?? Polanco was a 4.1 WAR player and All-Star at shortstop for a 101-win team in 2019. In 2020, when he was injured and bad, he was still tracking to be worth 2.1 WAR in a full season, which is a very respectable regular.

This notion that he is completely unusable at short seems based entirely on exaggerated recollections of his play there, and an irrational perception of the difference in physical rigors between playing 2B and SS. They're not THAT different. It's not like he moved to first base.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

There is a clear correlation of Polanco persistently playing SS and his drop in production and increase ankle problems. Only time away from SS in '21 we see his #s returning to expectations. I'm surprised that you don't want to see that.

You could just as easily say Polanco persistently playing baseball is responsible for his drop in production and ankle problems. Given that he never really played anywhere other than SS, I'm not sure you can clearly call it a positional correlation. 

To be clear, I'm not in favor of Polanco moving back to short with all other things being equal. I think switching him to 2B was the right move and I prefer him there. It's just that all other things are not equal. 

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, RJA said:

Great article, Nick.  I like that you made suggestions about where to go from here.  I do not agree with the two comments above.  There are loads of free agent impact pitchers that have been successful.  Sure there are notable failures as nothing is fool proof, but many have been outstanding.  Plus, the problem with trades for the Twins is that they are very unlikely to sign these guys to long term contracts which means you are right back in the same situation in a year or two. 

Thanks for the thoughtful comment! To this point, I think the shorter-term commitments are a feature not a flaw. Arms break down. Expensive long-term contracts for aging pitchers just don't very often work out. Large-market teams can afford to live with the payroll bloat, small/mid-market teams not so much. (Which is why you almost always see large-market teams signing the big SP contracts.)

When you look at the most impactful rotation acquisitions in the AL Central over the years, they're almost always trades. Lance Lynn, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Bauer, James Shields, Luc Giolito, Corey Kluber ... all acquired via trade. How many big-money free agent SPs have been big difference-makers?

[dex8425]

I've been an advocate for signing Greinke, who I think was unhappy in Houston. However, he 100% wants to go to an NL team so he can hit. I see him signing in MN only if NL adopts a universal DH. I mean, we had Kenta pinch run. 

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thanks for the thoughtful comment! To this point, I think the shorter-term commitments are a feature not a flaw. Arms break down. Expensive long-term contracts for aging pitchers just don't very often work out. Large-market teams can afford to live with the payroll bloat, small/mid-market teams not so much. (Which is why you almost always see large-market teams signing the big SP contracts.)

When you look at the most impactful rotation acquisitions in the AL Central over the years, they're almost always trades. Lance Lynn, Kenta Maeda, Jake Odorizzi, Trevor Bauer, James Shields, Luc Giolito, Corey Kluber ... all acquired via trade. How many big-money free agent SPs have been big difference-makers?

Lynn was just extended by the white sox after he was just a rental in the trade with Texas, right? Keuchel was a fa signing who has turned out pretty dang well.

There aren't a lot of big money free agents in the AL central in general, just because there are only two larger market teams and three teams (Min, KC, CLE) that never spend significant $ in free agency. It's a weak division and that's partly why. The yankees and Rex Sox and Dodgers can remain competitive every year because they spend money in free agency. Not every signing is a good one, but spending money helps field more competitive teams. 

[Shaitan]

I agree that pitching, both SP and RP, need upgrades.

But I'd kick the tires on a Didi trade for SS. I feel like he could be acquired cheap as a salary dump. 

[DocBauer]

2I honestly hadn't heard our FO was IN on a number of trades pre lockout until just recently, though I've been expecting one for months now. And if the Twins really expect to be competitive in 2022, then SOMEONE HAS to be added. You can't just audition the prospects and expect to be competitive. (I still think they blew the opportunity to add JUST ONE GUY on a 3-4yr deal that wouldn't blow up anything! But water under the bridge at this point). I still wouldn't be surprised to see Pineda, Kikuchi or maybe Tyler Anderson brought in on a cheap deal. I just don't think this FO really believes Bundy is some sort of great steal. And when you have a full 162G season, hopefully, you will have many opportunities to audition the prospects as we all know you will need 8-9SP throughout the season. Especially after limited IP for prospects in 2021, time is needed, but opportunity WILL BE THERE. Adding 2 arms will NOT prevent the young arms from getting their feet wet and getting opportunity. 

I'd really like to see, and expect, a quality, experienced RHRP to add to the back end of the pen. There is opportunity and need and  payroll room to do so. 

That's 3 of 5 spots to fill. The remaining hole is SS. I absolutely agree Polanco at SS is not ideal. He's a perfect fit at 2B and a potential GG winner there. But while I want to keep him at 2B, he's just not going butcher some make him out to be at SS. He's OK/decent there. And if his ankles are OK...which they appear to be...I don't see how his ankles are any less stressed at SS than 2B. In fact, he probably twists and turns his ankles more at 2B than SS. Now, I don't want him to be the full time SS on a 1yr fill-in, but it's not some sky is falling scenario. 

I think the potential of the lineup is such an offensive hole at SS is acceptable, even though I don't want that. Iglesias has the bat, and past defensive rep, to be a great 1yr fill-in. I know we don't want to say this, but Simmons is a potential bounceback option who only has to hit to his career numbers to be an asset. I have come around that the Twins need to make a trade with the Cardinals for DeJong. Not a great hitter, but acceptable for a great glove SS. He has some power for the spot. My u derstanding is he's going to make over $6M as a reserve as he's been replaced by their young kid who's name escapes me at the moment. I'm thinking he comes pretty cheap for a power bat or A pitcher.

I wouldn't be opposed to a 4th OF who can maybe play CF. But do we need that? Maybe. But Kepler plays a good CF. Gordon can play a decent CF based on what we saw while learning the position on the fly. Celesino could be fully ready by mid season. 

I'm not 100% sold we need an OF, but I wouldn't object if it happened.