Buxtons hot start

[John Bonnes]

Seems like there should be a thread on this, seeing as everyone is talking about it. 20 AB, hitting .500 with a double, triple & 2 home runs. My initial thoughts.....

 

1) I'll be really interested to see how this year develops. Could we be crabbing about him ONLY being at Low A as a 19 yo?

 

2) For those looking ahead to the June drft, and hoping the Twins get a pitcher even if there is a higher-upside toolsy high school outfielder avilable - does this give you any pause?

[Ultima Ratio]

Seems like there should be a thread on this, seeing as everyone is talking about it. 20 AB, hitting .500 with a double, triple & 2 home runs. My initial thoughts.....

 

1) I'll be really interested to see how this year develops. Could we be crabbing about him ONLY being at Low A as a 19 yo?

 

2) For those looking ahead to the June drft, and hoping the Twins get a pitcher even if there is a higher-upside toolsy high school outfielder avilable - does this give you any pause?

 

It gives me many pause.

[stringer bell]

I thought about asking how soon I had to get to Cedar Rapids if I wanted to see Buxton play there. Somebody already posted something similar. My next thought is how soon will Buxton make Aaron Hicks irrelevant? No doubt that Buxton has all the tools and according to the GM he has the right makeup. I've said for a while that the next under-21 player that the Twins have will be Berrios, but both Buxton and Sano could be here sooner than we think.

[Old Twins Cap]

Crabbing schmabbing. Angels brought up a 20 year-old kid last year and he damn near won MVP of AL. Let the cream rise. Twins way be damned.

[COTwinsFan]

I think that if Buxton keeps hitting .400 with pop he will be in Ft Myers by mid May. I believe the Twins would have promoted Sano last year if it were not for his horrible defense and Buxton should have no such concerns. I have been a Twins fan since I 1987 (I was 6) and I have never been as excited about a prospect as I am about Buxton. With a little luck, both Buxton and Sano could be big league regulars by the end of 2014. If that happens we need pitching ASAP, that is why I am hopeful that we end up with either Gray or Appel. I hate the idea of Manea, anytime a pitchers stuff decreases drastically at 21 it just screams that he is hiding an injury. Go Twins!

[drivlikejehu]

If a HS outfielder as good as Buxton is there at #4, they have to take him. But it doesn't sound like there is anyone like that- Meadows and Frazier seem to have significantly less upside. This class looks terrible, worse than 2012 (at the top anyway). If no one is worth slot at #4, the Twins should do a below-slot deal and use the money later on.

[twinsin17]

If the Twins have one of the GA outfielders ranked highest when they pick at 4 then by all means take another HS OF. As it looks right now Appel and Gray are 1-2 in either order and Kris Bryant has done nothing but hit his way in to the #3 slot. If any of these guys are available at 4 (does Houston pull another head scratcher?) take them and don't think twice. So far there isn't another P available in the college ranks that I am dead set on taking in front of either GA outfielder.

[cmb0252]

While the season has just started and Buxton is definitely going to come back to earth at some point that doesn't change my mind that he will end the year in high A. Sano and Rosario were held back because of their gloves, not their bats. Buxton's 80 speed is going to hide some of his flaws not only in the outfield but at the dish. Buxton is going to turn outs into singles at the plate and singles into outs in the field.

[jokin]

Seems like there should be a thread on this, seeing as everyone is talking about it. 20 AB, hitting .500 with a double, triple & 2 home runs. My initial thoughts.....

 

1) I'll be really interested to see how this year develops. Could we be crabbing about him ONLY being at Low A as a 19 yo?

 

2) For those looking ahead to the June drft, and hoping the Twins get a pitcher even if there is a higher-upside toolsy high school outfielder avilable - does this give you any pause?

 

1) As posted elsewhere, "Angel Morales isn't exactly blocking Buxton's progression. If Buxton keeps this up another month or so and shows he's really ready, it would be foolish not to put Buxton onto the same team with his future teammates, Rosario and Sano." The gloves are what are holding Rosario and Sano back, that is not going to be an issue for Buxton.

 

2) Given the high draft position, it would be best to get the best upside player possible, any time you have the chance to get a future multi-year All Star, if not future HOFer, it would be foolish to draft down strictly for need.

[glunn]

The debate about team needs versus best player available is starting early this year. I would note that last year the proponents of best player available seemed to win the debate, but this is a new year.

[kab21]

I said it in another thread but prospects get promoted at midseason unless injuries happen and the team needs players from the lower levels. Nobody anywhere in the minors is blocking buxton. If he stays hot then he should be promoted midseason.

 

The one interesting part could be kepler needing a promotion at some point.

[Larsbars08]

I would be good drafting a guy like Fraizer or Meadows only if they plan to trade Willingham for some pitching prospects. It might be a pipe dream to get someone of Alex Meyer's caliber, but we really need more top end pitching prospects, and without finding team with an abundance of pitching and desperate for power, the draft might be the only way to find pitchers.

 

What is it about Georgia and high school outfielders. Scouts seemed to be pretty down on the competition Buxton faced in high school. But with the number two overall pick last year and probably two top 10 pick this year, I'm starting to wonder.

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan has made it clear with the Hicks' move that they will advance players if appropriate. Perhaps those claiming the Twins promote slowly because the players are bad were right, and those of us arguing they promote slowly because they are too conservative were wrong. I hope we find out one way or the other this year, and Buxton forces their hand.

 

No, his hot start 1 week into his low A season does not change my mind. If there is a pitcher that is even close to as good as the HS OFers, they need to take him. Like, if the guy is as likely to be a number 2 as they are to be good OFers, take the pitcher. A solid/good 2 would be one of their top 2 or 3 pitchers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't see the Twins taking another OFer in the first round unless the guy absolutely blows them away. Given the current state of the OF in the minors, there's just no room to add another guy to the mix.

[Jim Crikket]

Put me in the "draft the best player regardless of position" camp. Even if it's an outfielder. If we should have learned anything from the Span and Revere trades, it's that Ryan is not afraid to trade good players in positions of depth for help at positions of need. Frankly, with the washout rate for pitchers being seemingly so high, I'm not so sure taking position players with lower injury risks and then flipping a couple of them for good pitchers who have at least survived to reach AA successfully might not be the best strategy, anyway.

[Mike Sixel]

And when it is not black and white who the best player is? It just is not that black and white usually.

[Gene Larkin Fan Club]

If the "Best Player Available" clearly has more potential than the available pitchers, please take the best player available. It's rare that a draft pick has immediate impact on the major league club. There's no way to know what the organization's primary needs will be 3 years from now, therefore, take the player with the highest ceiling.

[jokin]

Put me in the "draft the best player regardless of position" camp. Even if it's an outfielder. If we should have learned anything from the Span and Revere trades, it's that Ryan is not afraid to trade good players in positions of depth for help at positions of need. Frankly, with the washout rate for pitchers being seemingly so high, I'm not so sure taking position players with lower injury risks and then flipping a couple of them for good pitchers who have at least survived to reach AA successfully might not be the best strategy, anyway.

 

Yup! Always go with the clear-cut best talent available. Anyone remember the Portland Trailblazers in 1984 desperately needing a center because they had a surplus of guards?

[Jim Crikket]

And when it is not black and white who the best player is? It just is not that black and white usually.

 

It's not that black and white to you and me, I agree. But that's what the scouting department is for. TR and his folks decide who the best player available is. Sure, sometimes it may be a virtual toss-up and in those situations, there's nothing wrong with trying to project needs in the organization. My point is that "need" should be a distant second as a critieria and the risk of career-threatening injury for hard-throwing starting pitchers causes me to perhaps lean toward position players.

[gunnarthor]

At #4, we really have to hope that Astros take one of the GA OFers and save money. That might make some sense for them since the talent in their minors is in low ball, too. With Correa and, say, Meadows they have a pretty nice up the middle future and added talent with guys like McCullers and others they get by going over slot later. There's no way the Cubs pass on Appel. Rockies at #3 are really similar to the Twins. The strength of their system is hitters, including a good 3B and SS prospect to go along with two pretty good OF prospects (Dahl and Parker). It's hard to see (right now) a scenario where the top two pitchers (Appel and Gray) are on the board we when pick at #4.

 

So if those three are gone, the Twins could take Kris Bryant, the college bat from San Diego. Some question if he can stick at third but his bat should play anywhere and his RH power would look good at TF. They could realistically take the 3rd best pitcher, whoever that turns out to be - Manaea, Anderson, HS arm ....

[nicksaviking]

The BPA arguement is rediculous. We're talking about pitchers and batters how could you possibly go about comparing the two? This isn't basketball or hockey, heck it's not even football, the players have no skill sets in common. Is Justin Verlander better than Pedro Florimon? Obviously. Is Miguel Cabrera better than Liam Hendriks? Of course, but how do you even begin to compare Verlander and Cabrera? WAR? Please.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Seems like there should be a thread on this, seeing as everyone is talking about it. 20 AB, hitting .500 with a double, triple & 2 home runs. My initial thoughts.....

 

1) I'll be really interested to see how this year develops. Could we be crabbing about him ONLY being at Low A as a 19 yo?

 

2) For those looking ahead to the June drft, and hoping the Twins get a pitcher even if there is a higher-upside toolsy high school outfielder avilable - does this give you any pause?

 

No. Best Player Available always. There's nothing wrong with having a surplus of talent at one position - as this off-season showed, you can always use that surplus to trade for immediate needs.

[gunnarthor]

The BPA arguement is rediculous. We're talking about pitchers and batters how could you possibly go about comparing the two? This isn't basketball or hockey, heck it's not even football, the players have no skill sets in common. Is Justin Verlander better than Pedro Florimon? Obviously. Is Miguel Cabrera better than Liam Hendriks? Of course, but how do you even begin to compare Verlander and Cabrera? WAR? Please.

 

People compare them all the time. Cripes, every ML team spending millions on the draft is doing just that.

[Shane Wahl]

If Sean Manaea is available at four, there's no OF worthy of discussion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

To answer John's original question...

 

I'm one of the ones against the Buxton pick, and so far he's making me look wrong. I do hope that he continues to do so, but I think there needs to be some pause here. First, this is 1 week into the season. Players do what Buxton has done thus far for short periods of time... all the time. While it's nice, he needs to keep the torrid start going for at least a month (if not 2) before he heads to Florida.

 

To answer the other question, my problem with BPA relates to the subjectivity of it. Who would you rather have on your team, Griffey in his prime, or mid 90s pedro in his prime? Personally, I'd lean towards the pitcher, but when you are looking at ceilings, all of these guys are top. You then have to price in risk, floor, and a whole bunch of other factors. To this day, I don't see that much of a difference between Buxton and Appel (or Gausman, Zimmer,etc) as they all had ace type potential and are much closer to the show. Hopefully, the Twins made the right call here. So far, it looks very promising, but we need much more time to make that determination.

 

As regards to this draft, again, I don't think there's going to be some guy that just stands out above the rest. The standout guys right now appear to Appel and Gray. I doubt either are there at 4. They will likely have to choose between one or two OFers, Manaea, and Anderson. In this situation, I'd think long and hard at drafting for need with an underslot pick. If Anderson, for instance, would take 2M, then sign him and take the 2M savings and go after one of the prep bats that are looking to slip due to signability. I seem to remember a HS 3B that was looking like a mid first rounder that was leaning hard towards college. Draft him in a later round and put the 2M on him and see if he bites. That would yield two first rounders with 1 pick.

[Mike Sixel]

As for the "just trade them" camp.....which number 2 starter did the Twins acquire this offseason that is as likely to be as good as Appel or Gausman? Because none of the guys they acquired are rated as high as them right now. And 2 are in the minors, not immediate help.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I don't think there is any reason to draft another outfielder. I was all for Buxton last June, but this year BPA doesn't make sense unless they are SIGNIFICANTLY better than any pitcher on the board. There are 3 pitchers that make sense for us to draft, so it's extremely likely we get one: Manaea, Stanek, and Appel. Even if they were all gone, Chris Anderson doesn't appear like too much of a dropoff. Frazier and the other guy just don't seem the above and beyond best pick that Buxton was that high.

[kab21]

I'm not really in the camp that believes Gausman or Zimmer are likely aces. I think they are more in the should be good with a small chance of being an ace. Currently I don't even rank Manaea as high as them. Even before he struggled a little this year there were some questions regarding his secondary pitches. If Meadows or Frazier (different types of players) come close to the buxton level from last year then it will make it very difficult to pick a pitcher imo. Same argument for Humphries but he's a college slugger.

 

I absolutely want them to take a pitcher but I'm not convinced that it won't be a reach to do so.

[Mike Sixel]

Why is the measurement ACE? Are you measuring the position players as likely MVP candidates? There are like 10-15 Aces on the planet.

[nicksaviking]

Is BPA code for people who always want to take a hitter with the first pick? I think for some people it stands for Batter Pick, Always.

 

This year should be a good test case as the offensive options do not look to be overly special.