Can we please end the Dozier era now?

[DaveW]

They care. They just don't agree with Dave. Dozier was the Minor League Player of the year two years ago for a reason: The organization thinks very highly of him. Of course he could go the way of Casilla "and so many others". It's entirely possible. It's just not all that likely.

 

I'm OK with questioning stuff and calling out mistakes that were made, but to accuse the organization of not caring or not trying all that hard is cynical in the extreme.

I'm sorry, but I am one of the biggest proponents and kool-aid drinkers of the Terry Ryan regime. But even I can admit they didn't do ANYTHING to solve the middle infield issues that have plagued this team for the better part of the past decade.

 

It's one thing to want to give guys like Florimon/Dozier etc a shot, thats fine, but at least bring in ONE player you can count on for sure at 2B/SS instead of a bunch of huge question marks.

 

Player of the year or not, it has always been said by talent evaluators that Dozier's most likely ceiling is that of a util player.

[cmathewson]

Player of the year or not, it has always been said by talent evaluators that Dozier's most likely ceiling is that of a util player.

 

Not according to the talent evaluators that John Sickels talks to:

 

He doesn't have star-level tools, but he's strong for his size, runs well, and has a decent arm. Originally projected as a utility player, he's convinced most scouts that he has enough range to stick at shortstop; he certainly has the savvy and instincts.

[Shane Wahl]

Not according to the talent evaluators that John Sickels talks to:

 

You consistently put the smack down around here.

[jokin]

Not according to the talent evaluators that John Sickels talks to:

 

Not according to the talent evaluators that John Sickels talks to:

 

He doesn't have star-level tools, but he's strong for his size, runs well, and has a decent arm. Originally projected as a utility player, he's convinced most scouts that he has enough range to stick at shortstop; he certainly has the savvy and instincts.

 

 

 

 

Based on the quote in current context, you had to do A LOT of digging, and the unnamed esteemed Sickels "scouts" have since retreated to the tall grass in embarrassment.

[Riverbrian]

Isn't it pretty safe to assume that he's the starting 2B because a scout or talent evaluator or two has advocated him.

 

We can all read between the lines to this degree... Can't we?

 

I guess I don't understand where this news of talent evaluators being down on him is coming from.

 

I understand that he isn't thought of like Jurickson Profar or even Kolton Wong.

 

However... someone has to be saying he's a decent enough option because here he is.

 

At the very least... Scouts and Evaluators have graded him higher than Escobar and Carroll.

 

It also seems to me that evaluators also have him higher than reasonably priced Kelly Johnson, Ryan Theriot, Maicer Izturis and Ronny Cedano. Because here he is.

 

They also seem to like him more than Jeff Keppinger at 3/12M or Stephen Drew at 9.5 Million because here he is.

 

None of those salary's would have broke the bank.

 

Could the Twins have traded for a SS/2B... Traded who? Trade chips were used on Pitching and rightly so.

 

Ultimately... Brian Dozier will let us all know if he's the guy or not. 21 at Bats in 2013 ain't enough for me and I'm not sure who the best option in house is at this moment.

 

I'm pulling for him.

[jokin]

Isn't it pretty safe to assume that he's the starting 2B because a scout or talent evaluator or two has advocated him.

 

We can all read between the lines to this degree... Can't we?

 

I guess I don't understand where this news of talent evaluators being down on him is coming from.

 

I understand that he isn't thought of like Jurickson Profar or even Kolton Wong.

 

However... someone has to be saying he's a decent enough option because here he is.

 

At the very least... Scouts and Evaluators have graded him higher than Escobar and Carroll.

 

It also seems to me that evaluators also have him higher than reasonably priced Kelly Johnson, Ryan Theriot, Maicer Izturis and Ronny Cedano. Because here he is.

 

They also seem to like him more than Jeff Keppinger at 3/12M or Stephen Drew at 9.5 Million because here he is.

 

None of those salary's would have broke the bank.

 

Could the Twins have traded for a SS/2B... Traded who? Trade chips were used on Pitching and rightly so.

 

Ultimately... Brian Dozier will let us all know if he's the guy or not. 21 at Bats in 2013 ain't enough for me and I'm not sure who the best option in house is at this moment.

 

I'm pulling for him.

 

I'm pulling for him too. I think the problem comes down to the Twins being fine rostering all of 4 UTIL MIs when one should be enough.

 

It's important to remember that Dozier was a 4 year college player, ie, not drafted until after his senior year when some Twins evaluator thought he was worth a shot in the 8th round.

 

His minor league career was very undistinguished until 2011- when he split time at A and AA, ie, playing at age 24 against players typically a year, and often even more, younger than him.

 

If the Twins get a LNP-type player out of him at UTIL, I think they would be pleased for a reasonable return on a modest investment. I would have been thrilled with a Keppinger signing- they're paying Carroll almost as much this year to sit on the bench as a human insurance policy.

[Riverbrian]

I'm pulling for him too. I think the problem comes down to the Twins being fine rostering all of 4 MIs when one should be enough.

 

It's important to remember that Dozier was a 4 year college player, ie, not drafted until after his senior year when some Twins evaluator thought he was worth a shot in the 8th round.

 

His minor league career was very undistinguished until 2011- when he split time at A and AA, ie, playing at age 24 against players typically a year, and often even more, younger than him.

 

If the Twins get a LNP-type player out of him at UTIL, I think they would be pleased for a reasonable return on a modest investment. I would have been thrilled with a Keppinger signing- they're paying Carroll almost as much this year to sit on the bench as a human insurance policy.

 

I look at the list of available FA's and I agree Keppinger is the only one that I would even consider. The rest of the list is pretty dull.

 

I think the Twins have assessed Brian Dozier as having a shot and are giving him one. Henceforth is name in the lineup.

 

It's up to Brian now. I think it's a fact finding mission... It isn't time to end the Dozier experiment after 21 at bats. The Twins want to know if they can count on him in 2014 and beyond. If it turns out that he can't... Brian will let them know by his performance.

 

He hasn't frightened me yet.

[jokin]

I look at the list of available FA's and I agree Keppinger is the only one that I would even consider. The rest of the list is pretty dull.

 

I think the Twins have assessed Brian Dozier as having a shot and are giving him one. Henceforth is name in the lineup.

 

It's up to Brian now. I think it's a fact finding mission... It isn't time to end the Dozier experiment after 21 at bats. The Twins want to know if they can count on him in 2014 and beyond. If it turns out that he can't... Brian will let them know by his performance.

 

He hasn't frightened me yet.

 

I concur and certainly the OP made a somewhat unwarranted and frustrated over the top dismissal of the situation. I just hope the mission of fact determination doesn't last as long as the first Starship Enterprise scheduled mission- or worse- the long, frustrating, fleeting flirtation with starter status for Alexi Casilla.

[Waverley Wildcat]

I would say that the Twins need to give 2013 to Dozier. By 2014, Santana and Beresford could be given chances to succeed at SS or 2B depending on Dozier's 2013 season.

 

Problem as I see it Shane is that even today James Beresford is not being given any chances in AA, seeing more time on the bench than on the diamond wont help him to show his skills over trade ins.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Problem as I see it Shane is that even today James Beresford is not being given any chances in AA, seeing more time on the bench than on the diamond wont help him to show his skills over trade ins.

 

You're right. Beresford isn't really thought of as a prospect and there is almost no chance he will be given one. If the Twins, or any other team, thought he was anything more than a AA/AAA filler, he would have been selected in the Rule V. Although, Santana could see time depending on how he performs. He's still a ways away from being major league ready. Levi Michael could probably be thrown in the hunt too.

[cmathewson]

Based on the quote in current context, you had to do A LOT of digging, and the unnamed esteemed Sickels "scouts" have since retreated to the tall grass in embarrassment.

 

No. I made one search: "Sickels Brian Dozier" It was the first result. I read the article for about 20 seconds, pulled the quote, and published. Total time to dispute the claim that "no talent evaluator thinks he's more than a util infielder" was 30 seconds tops. I could do some more digging if you like, but I don't have to justify John Sickels' authority.

[Guest USAFChief]

No. I made one search: "Sickels Brian Dozier" It was the first result. I read the article for about 20 seconds, pulled the quote, and published. Total time to dispute the claim that "no talent evaluator thinks he's more than a util infielder" was 30 seconds tops. I could do some more digging if you like, but I don't have to justify John Sickels' authority.

The very same article concludes with: "Although he may be just a useful utility player in the long run, the Twins have nothing to lose by playing Dozier regularly the rest of the season. He can't be worse than Jamey Carroll, he's 13 years younger, and he's consistently exceeded expectations." I happen to agree with all of that last part...at 2nd base. There's little reason not to run him out there at 2b for at least half of 2013. I think we saw enough of Dozier at SS last year to conclude that's probably not in his future, and I'm pretty sure the Twins don't view him as a SS anymore either.

[cmathewson]

There's little reason not to run him out there at 2b for at least half of 2013. I think we saw enough of Dozier at SS last year to conclude that's probably not in his future, and I'm pretty sure the Twins don't view him as a SS anymore either.

 

Yeah, I was a bit hasty in the quote I pulled. The sentence immediately after said "He's also very good at second and has performed reliably in brief action at third base, though his arm is marginal there." I regret not including that line. Also, Sickels' post was from the time that the Dozier Experiment meant playing short to the end of 2012 (one they concluded was a lost cause in August).

 

I agree with you that the comment now holds, as the Dozier Experiment means playing second to the end of 2013.

[RIP BYTO]

Can we please end the Plouffe era? Can we please end the Parmelee era? Can we please end the Hicks era? Can we please end the Florimon era? Can we please end the Doumit era? Can we please end the Escobar era? .....

 

........Can we please end the Gardy era? Seriously, can we?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

He's 39 years old. He wears out easy. Guys his age can go from a 3.5 WAR to a -3.5 WAR in one year if you're not careful.

 

I didn't realize baseball was such a physically demanding sport. I'd also like to see some examples of WAR drop that extreme "due to age" if you don't mind. Plus, I was really only playing devil's advocate with him anyway. If we were serious about winning this year, he should be starting. We're not, so no big deal.

[fairweather]

I've been consistent on this issue. The middle infield combo that gives the Twins the most consistency and therefore the best chance for success is Esco at SS and Carroll at 2B. Dozier and Florimon aren't ready and may never be MLB caliber.

[fairweather]

I appreciate that Carroll's advanced age limits him, but he's the best option now. Maybe 200 AB's into the season someone, ie Dozier or Florimon or Dinkleman, would be playing at a level that would merit considering to move the elder 2B into a utility role but for a second time Dozier was handed a job on a silver platter. Why?

[ThePuck]

I appreciate that Carroll's advanced age limits him, but he's the best option now. Maybe 200 AB's into the season someone, ie Dozier or Florimon or Dinkleman, would be playing at a level that would merit considering to move the elder 2B into a utility role but for a second time Dozier was handed a job on a silver platter. Why?

 

Because it's a season with no real expectations and that's the best time to see what the young guys can do.

[cmathewson]

I didn't realize baseball was such a physically demanding sport. I'd also like to see some examples of WAR drop that extreme "due to age" if you don't mind. Plus, I was really only playing devil's advocate with him anyway. If we were serious about winning this year, he should be starting. We're not, so no big deal.

 

Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions.

 

Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.

[stringer bell]

Actually, Florimon and Dozier aren't real young and it is probably now or never for both of them. If they fail this year, it will be time to move on to new alternatives. It is interesting--Florimon has hit and Dozier has fielded in a small sample size and it was thought that hitting would be Florimon's problem and there was a question of Dozier adapting to second base.

[stringer bell]

Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions.

 

Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.

Jamey Carroll is what he is--a power-challenged, surehanded utility infielder. He's 39 and has only once started half a season's games at one position. If Dozier hits like Alexi Casilla all year, he might be marginally better than any alternative at second, but it remains to be seen how much Dozier will hit. I expect he will hit between .250 and .270 with an OPS north of .700, maybe .750.

[Mr. Brooks]

Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions.

 

Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.

 

None of those guys experienced a 7 WAR swing in one season.

I don't think he's disputing that guys can decline with age, I think he is disputing the extreme severity that you claim.

I have to say I agree with him. I would be shocked to see an example of a guy going from 3.5 WAR to negative 3.5 WAR in one season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought I read that it was mostly a myth that middle infielders (particularly 2B) burn out earlier? Certainly there are some high-profile examples, but actually examining players in the aggregate, I think all players tend to fade around that same age. I think it was suggested that since there are fewer middle infielders than corner players by definition (2 vs. 4-5 if you count the DH), there are fewer late-30's success stories at those positions in an absolute sense, but relatively they're about the same. Also, perhaps some middle infielders even in their peak don't hit well enough to survive a move to a corner position or DH when their defense declines.

[cmathewson]

None of those guys experienced a 7 WAR swing in one season.

I don't think he's disputing that guys can decline with age, I think he is disputing the extreme severity that you claim.

I have to say I agree with him. I would be shocked to see an example of a guy going from 3.5 WAR to negative 3.5 WAR in one season.

 

Boone went from a 7 WAR to a 1.1 WAR in 1 year. He went from an OPS+ of 85 to 12 in the same period.

[Mr. Brooks]

Boone went from a 7 WAR to a 1.1 WAR in 1 year. He went from an OPS+ of 85 to 12 in the same period.

 

Fair enough, although that is still not a 7 WAR swing, but close enough.

I doubt you'd find many more though. I don't think its fair to assume that Jamey Carroll will regress at the rate of one guy, vs. the thousands of players that have played over the last 100 years.

[ThePuck]

Boone went from a 7 WAR to a 1.1 WAR in 1 year. He went from an OPS+ of 85 to 12 in the same period.

 

I'm sorry, are you saying Boone had an OPS+ of 12 in a season?

[cmathewson]

I'm sorry, are you saying Boone had an OPS+ of 12 in a season?

 

Yes. The year he was with the Twins.

[ThePuck]

Yes. The year he was with the Twins.

 

That was 2005.

 

He only had a OPS+ of 12 when he was with us that year. He wasn't just with us that year, he was with Seattle too. Overall that year he had an OPS+ of 73. The 85 OPS+ you quoted was the OPS+ he had with Seattle in that year.

 

It's also not the time frame he went from a WAR in the 7s to 1.1. Thta was 2003 to 2004.

[Oxtung]

Boone went from a 7 WAR to a 1.1 WAR in 1 year. He went from an OPS+ of 85 to 12 in the same period.

 

No he didn't. He had an 85 OPS+ with the Seattle in the first half of the 2005 season and an OPS+ of 12 with the Twins in the second half of the season after getting all of 58 PA's. His total OPS+ for the season was 73.

[cmathewson]

Sorry, misread that. My bad.