Ranking the Twins Top Pitching Prospects by ETA

[Nash Walker]

The Twins have an exciting and deep group of pitching prospects close to the majors. Who could we see first in 2022?

If the Twins truly choose to “punt” on 2022 and get a long look at their young pitching, which prospects can fans expect to see first?

11. Chase Petty
Petty, 18, may be the most exciting pitcher in the Twins’ system, with a triple-digits fastball headlining a potentially electric array of weapons. He’s also the furthest away from the majors. The hope for Petty in 2022 is a full-season loaded with strikeouts. 

10. Simeon Woods Richardson
That Woods Richardson, who pitched at Double-A last year, is the ninth most-likely to debut shows you how many young starters are coming. SWR, 21, struggled to get going in 2021, but a full season in one place should help him progress in 2022. 

9. Louie Varland
The Twins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021, Varland completely broke out to the tune of a 2.10 ERA across Low and High-A. Varland, 24, struck out 142 of the 421 batters he faced (34%) and figures to headline Wichita’s rotation when he breaks camp. 

8. Chris Vallimont
Vallimont struck out 32% of hitters he faced in 2021 but walked 14% and gave up 15 homers. He’s 24 with 94 innings under his belt at Double-A, albeit with a 6.13 ERA. Vallimont could debut out of the Twins’ bullpen with a good stint in St.Paul. 

7. Matt Canterino
This may be a surprising spot for Canterino, 24, considering he finished 2021 at High-A in Cedar Rapids. His stuff is flat-out devastating and if the Twins decide he’s a future reliever, his path to Minnesota could be expedited in a hurry. 

6. Cole Sands
Sands, 24, owns a 2.58 ERA and 28% strikeout rate in over 177 Minor League innings. He was outstanding down the stretch in 2021 and is set to man a spot in the Saints’ rotation to start 2022. If he stays healthy, he should debut by the summer. 

5. Jordan Balazovic
The Twins are rightly-set on Balazovic as a future starter, which could dial back his debut by a hair. Balazovic, 23, was tinkering with different pitch mixes throughout the 2021 season. He could do more of that in St.Paul to start 2022. 

4. Drew Strotman
Strotman, 25, pitched over 100 innings at Triple-A in 2021. He started 12 games for the Saints after the Rays traded him to the Twins, and he allowed an .850 opponent’s OPS. A move to the bullpen would speed up his timeline. 

3. Jhoan Duran
Duran, 24, struck out 14 of the first 28 hitters he faced for St.Paul in 2021, then struggled and missed the rest of the season with an elbow strain. A hybrid Major League role to build Duran’s workload and experience would make a lot of sense.

2. Josh Winder
Winder was one of the best starters at Double-A before the Twins moved him up to St.Paul, where he dominated in his first Triple-A start. Like Duran, Winder, 25, then struggled and missed the rest of the season due to injury. He could be the first call-up of 2022. 

1. Joe Ryan
Ryan has already won over his fair share of Twins fans with a cool demeanor and outstanding results. Ryan’s fastballs look like they ride to the plate on a ramp, and as of now, Ryan is pitching on opening weekend in Chicago. 

The takeaway: you're set to see a lot of young starters pitch for the Twins in 2022. If healthy, the first five seem like locks, with Sands not far behind, and Canterino a sleeper bullpen addition. Vallimont and Varland aren't miles away either, with Petty and Woods Richardson trailing as the youngest of the group. 

Who are you most excited to see in 2022? Comment below!

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[mikelink45]

I want to see them all.  I want them to rotate the minor leaguers and see what we really have.  I do not want them to be too quick to the bullpen, although I see Vallimont as a BP candidate along with Strotman.   I keep hoping Duran is a SP, but if he breaks down again the pen might need to be his place.  Canterino has to start. 

This is the most exciting thing the Twins have going and picking up a mediocre free agent is something I really do not want to have happen. 

[Doctor Gast]

If the Twins don't have courage to go for it this year, I don't ever see them going for it. I'm not in favor of depending on prospects & throwing them out there in diverse situations & see if they sink or swim, I think that's counter productive. Nevertheless, IMO a lot of prospects will get an opportunity to get their feet wet this season. Through a AAAA rotating system the hot ones will get the most time.

Joe Ryan has the 1st spot, of course but I see Duran has the next call up, if he's healthy, in the BP. I also see that SWR has a very good chance at the end of the season. I'd rate him a little higher than you. 

[Brandon]

I am ok with 2 spots going to the prospects and 1 more for Bundy/ Dobnak unless or until they fail and a new prospect emerges.  but we need 2 competent starters to be there for the kids and provide leadership, innings and veteraness goodness. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I am going to go with the guys on the 40 man as first up.

Ryan is a no-brainer, the only way he isn't on the opening roster is if he is hurt.

As for the order I guess it will depend on what they need

Drew Strotman IMO he is only on the 40 because he came over in a trade, I would think he is the first up and possibly the down and off the 40.

Then Cole Sands because he pitched 80 innings this year and should be go for 110 or so.

The Vallimont and Duran because I think they will come up for the Pen.

Then Josh and Jordan.

Then I believe Canterino will force the Twins hand to be added the 40.

I don't think we see any of the others, because I believe there will be other minor league pitchers that will need to be added to the 40 to cover bullpen spots though the year. I don't think Twins can afford to put any more prospects on the 40 man this year then they already have.

Just my 2 cents.

 

 

[baul0010]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

If the Twins don't have courage to go for it this year, I don't ever see them going for it. I'm not in favor of depending on prospects & throwing them out there in diverse situations & see if they sink or swim, I think that's counter productive. Nevertheless, IMO a lot of prospects will get an opportunity to get their feet wet this season. Through a AAAA rotating system the hot ones will get the most time.

Joe Ryan has the 1st spot, of course but I see Duran has the next call up, if he's healthy, in the BP. I also see that SWR has a very good chance at the end of the season. I'd rate him a little higher than you. 

I was really hoping the Twins would have spent money on 2 free agent pitchers this off season.   If we could have penciled in 2 quality starters with Ryan/Ober, we would have been set.  Then, if our young starters became stars and Ryan and Ober drop in the rotation, we would really have a great problem.  

[DocBauer]

Sorry, I could end up very wrong, but I think people are really sleeping on Strotman. He's got the frame and velocity and reportedly some solid secondary pitches. He seems to be very bright. A couple of seasons ago he was ranked above Ryan before his TJ. Post surgery, he bypassed AA and was promoted straight to AAA after missing 2020 like so many. But for some reason, he keeps getting viewed as some sort of "throw in" with the Cruz trade. 

Let's take a moment to look at his AAA stats before the trade:

7-2/ 3.39 ERA/ 58.1 IP/ 50H/ 62K/ 33 BB/ .235 AVG/ 1.42 WHIP.

Other than his BB being a bit high, indicating he was struggling a bit with control his first full season back after TJ, AND missing 2020, those are some quality numbers. And his numbers at St Paul were disappointing to say the least. And in an interview with Seth recently he talked about maybe trying too hard to make a impression. Maybe. Good for him to not just make excuses, but there's also the real possibility he was running out of gas after missing so much time, PLUS adjusting and moving to a new organization. IF he was an original Twins prospect, and then had an injury like Winder and Duran, etc, and only flashed his 1st half numbers, I think  most most  of us would be clamoring for him as one of the 1st  up options. Recency bias to end 2021 should not be used against Strotman. 

I think he could be a real surprise in 2022.

 

[Dantes929]

Been a while since we had a group like Slowey, Blackburn, Baker, Perkins and Liriano all coming up around the same time. and staying for a little bit.   Would be nice to see it again.   I would have liked a Greinke, Pineda kind of signing, but I am looking forward to seeing some of these guys pitch.    Never give up on a season before it starts.   

[Shs_2]

Realistically in that top group of 4:

Ryan , Winder , Duran , and Strotman

 

there will probably be 1 starter , 1 reliever .. potentially dominate one , 1 "aaa" quad A guy and one bust.

I say the starter comes from Ryan or Winder. The reliever comes from one of the other 2.

in the second group:

Canterino ,Balazovic , Sands and Vallimont 

Im really holding out hope for Canterino bc hes the only one i'm high on for a rotational option.

Im not high on Balazovic at all I'm wishing we would deal him while his prospect status is still HIGH with a package of players to net a real asset. Time for guys like Marco Raya, Cade Povich, Gipson-Long and a suprise (somebody will) to have a big year

 

 

[h2oface]

All but 3 of the 11 are 24 or 25.  I hope they start showing up in the show.

[beckmt]

This is what I also feel.  These guys need to be given the chance.  Like Cleveland I think more will succeed they we believe will.  This year will tell. 

Just don't get down on them if they don't succeed at first.  Many of them will need more than one chance before succeeding.

[jimbo92107]

I'm not counting Smokin' Joe Ryan on this list because I'm assuming he'll be the team's #1 for the next few years. He's a starter that needs to be properly managed, not a "prospect."

Jordan Balazovic - Once he's properly groomed, Blaze should push Baily Ober out of the #2 slot. 

Jhoan Duran - ...and then Duran should push Blaze out of the #2 slot...

Sadly, those are the only two prospects whose stuff I have seen for more than a few pitches. Even so, if we assume (for once, not entirely crazy) that the first four guys do okay, that gives the Twins a very nice, very young front four. Add a veteran or a Dobsie, and you've got something like a pitching staff. If you can land a Pineda or a Maeda, you've might have a pretty good front ro. 

Best part is, that leaves some very good prospects ready to make the leap from the crowded nest of the minors, flutter their wings as they tumble down thru the first few appearances, then bounce with charming clumsiness on the forest floor of their careers. Matt Canterino, Cole Sands, Drew Strotman, and Josh Winder all are expected to be good pitchers very soon. I and I tummy get a pleasant feeling. 

[RJA]

The Twins have an abundance of options but it will all depend on injuries and innings, so it is hard to predict within this group.  My guess is Winder and Strotman will be the first starters at Target FIeld due to age and experience, and IF Duran's elbow strain is only that and not something more serious, then I think he will be first bullpen addition.  I hope a couple of these guys really shine in spring training (whenever it starts), but I hope even more the Twins add a quality experienced starter or two.

[Eicemann]

I'm most excited for Duran because (hopefully) it means that his elbow issues are behind him or at least under control.  Would also love Winder to solidify his baseline performance in St Paul and be a viable option in June.

[baul0010]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Sorry, I could end up very wrong, but I think people are really sleeping on Strotman. He's got the frame and velocity and reportedly some solid secondary pitches. He seems to be very bright. A couple of seasons ago he was ranked above Ryan before his TJ. Post surgery, he bypassed AA and was promoted straight to AAA after missing 2020 like so many. But for some reason, he keeps getting viewed as some sort of "throw in" with the Cruz trade. 

Let's take a moment to look at his AAA stats before the trade:

7-2/ 3.39 ERA/ 58.1 IP/ 50H/ 62K/ 33 BB/ .235 AVG/ 1.42 WHIP.

Other than his BB being a bit high, indicating he was struggling a bit with control his first full season back after TJ, AND missing 2020, those are some quality numbers. And his numbers at St Paul were disappointing to say the least. And in an interview with Seth recently he talked about maybe trying too hard to make a impression. Maybe. Good for him to not just make excuses, but there's also the real possibility he was running out of gas after missing so much time, PLUS adjusting and moving to a new organization. IF he was an original Twins prospect, and then had an injury like Winder and Duran, etc, and only flashed his 1st half numbers, I think  most most  of us would be clamoring for him as one of the 1st  up options. Recency bias to end 2021 should not be used against Strotman. 

I think he could be a real surprise in 2022.

 

I think he'll could be a great pickup.  There has been some rumblings that he may find his way to the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

Good list, I'm getting excited to see these guys.

This team didn't get the starting pitching it needed in free agency. I'm over it, but unless they want to drag out contending into 2024 or beyond, they can't tinker with these guys in the minors most of the season and have most of them debut late in the year. Get them up to the majors early. Much earlier than we expect, let them work out their kinks against the real competition. Don't coddle them, toss them in the deep end. We need to have a large sample size on most of these guys this year if the team is planning on building a competing rotation through development alone.

Radke, Santana, Berrios are the only three starting pitchers this team has developed even remotely recently that weren't at all cringeworthy when the team ran them out in the playoffs. All got lit up as rookies, it was ugly. I don't think it's a coincidence that the best pitchers this team has developed did NOT suffer from 'not-being-ready' in the long run. They were mentally tough and figured out what needed to be done to be good pitchers. If getting their butts whipped is going to stunt the development of any of these new arms, I don't think they are the types of pitchers I'd want leading the rotation anyway.