There's a Very Simple Solution to Minnesota's Shortstop Problem

[bean5302]

This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.

No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.

Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?

 

[Nick Nelson]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.

No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.

Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?

 

The Twins won 103 games with Jorge Polanco as their starting shortstop. He was an All-Star and 4-WAR player there that year. How many games did Andrelton Simmons win with his historically great UZR last year? He was a sub-replacement level player. 

We all understand Polanco's defensive deficiencies at short. But they need to be weighed against the benefits of this arrangement. 

(BTW, Polanco's UZR/150 was really no better at 2B than at SS, if that's the gauge you're using. Bringing up Sano as an equivalent suggests you're not really making a serious argument here.)

[Vanimal46]

I’ve been on TD long enough to remember when Brock pinned a forum topic that Joe Mauer was never, ever going to return to catching full time. 

Looks like we may have to do the same thing with Polanco returning to SS. Never gonna happen. 

[cHawk]

Nah, I don’t want Polanco back at SS. Get a real SS and keep Polanco at 2B.

[Squirrel]

I have never been a fan of Polanco at SS. I'd been advocating for years to move him to 2nd, and, frankly, am surprised it took as long as it did. He is not a SS solution. Of course, the SS I wanted  years ago is now with another team. So it goes, always. There are still other options than this. I'm not sure what will happen, but if it's this, ugh, is all I can say.

[Nick Nelson]

25 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’ve been on TD long enough to remember when Brock pinned a forum topic that Joe Mauer was never, ever going to return to catching full time. 

Looks like we may have to do the same thing with Polanco returning to SS. Never gonna happen. 

I don't see the situations as very comparable. The Twins were forced to move Mauer off catcher. They really had no choice in light of his health and the extreme concussion risks behind the plate. If moving him back there were at all a feasible option it would've merited plenty of discussion.

Moving Polanco off SS was much more optional and experimental. It was a shakeup move. I'm dubious of the relatively increased risk to his ankle from moving to another position 20 feet away. Again: he started more than 2 dozen games at SS last year! It's not like they are fiercely opposed to using him there at all.

[Eicemann]

I fundamentally disagree with moving Polanco back to SS.  He has demonstrated superior performance at 2B.  If you're concerned about creating a logjam at 2B and favor Arraez over Polanco, then trade Polanco at the peak of his value now.  Don't force fit into SS to fill a void and decrease both his on field performance and trade value in the future.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins won 103 games with Jorge Polanco as their starting shortstop. He was an All-Star and 4-WAR player there that year. 

2021 bWAR - 8+ MVP, 5+ AS, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve:

Tatis - 6.6 bWAR     Padres 79-83

Story - 4.2 bWAR   Rockies 74-87

Swanson - 1.9 bWAR  Braves 88-73 WS Champions

Torres - 0.8 bWAR Yankees 92-70

SS bWAR doesn't always indicate team record, especially when most of that bWAR comes from the offensive side, 

Polanco is a better fit at 2B and stands a better chance to remain in the line-up everyday.

[joefish]

I vote no

 Jorge is not my ss.

[baul0010]

If you think Lewis or Martin could be ready by mid-season then do it and move Polanco back to 2nd when they are ready.  I don't think the F.O. is ready for Polanco and Arraez at S.S. and 2nd.  I just don't see why you want to take a good to very good 2nd baseman and make him an average S.S.?  There is nothing wrong with having Polanco at 2nd and him being an All-Star there.  It would be great if someone like Palacios could come into camp, take over short, and hit just enough to stay in the bigs.  

[tony&rodney]

Nick, you have written a post well worth consideration and you also presented the reasons for such a decision. It seemed clear to me that you also like Polanco at second base, but are suggesting that if the Twins are not moving on trades and set with their lineup, then Polanco back to shortstop is an option. This doesn't sound too controversial really because it uses the current roster resources to field the best team. 

Currently, about a third of plate appearances result in a walk or a strikeout. The average team hits line drives about 20% of the time when the ball is hit and the best ratio of fly balls to ground balls is about even. Thus, a shortstop today, while still clearly a very important position, does not influence the outcome of a game as much as they once did in the past. Why won't the Twins sign Correa or Story? I guess we know the answer. Most agree that Polanco seems more comfortable at second base. What position does Jorge prefer? Is it clear from a medical perspective that his ankle issues were due to playing shortstop? These might be important considerations in determining whether to move Polanco back to shortstop. I think most people agree that Jorge is better at second base than Luis and that a really good shortstop option not currently on the roster would be preferable. Nevertheless, the reduced number of chances from a traditional shortstop fielding position due to shifts and greater fly ball rates and increased strike out rates make the move reasonable.

The opinions differ on what to do, naturally. There aren't that many options really. Correa, Story - not likely. Gordon, Palacios - risky proposition to consider, but maybe. Trades - likely the best option but tricky. The trade route may bring DeJong, Walls, or Mondesi. Simmons, Inglesias, other tired vets - the worst options. The Twins backed themselves into this position and when all things are considered it is not the worst option to return Polanco to shortstop although I do not advocate this nor want it to happen. But, what do I know? I had proposed last Fall that the Twins needed to upgrade their defense in left field with Starling Marte as well as bringing in a new shortstop and believed that a $140 million budget was possible. I also wanted to trade for starting pitchers (Montas). Now I'm searching to complete the team at around $100-115 million. If Polaco prefers shortstop and the doctors are on board with the move as not an issue for injuries and the Twins aren't going to trade players then moving Polanco to short and Arraez back to second could work because they would hit enough to obscure their less than stellar defense. The post is realistic despite our other wishes.

[Johnny Ringo]

As the great Chris Rock said, " You can do it but it doesn't make it a good {redacted} idea."

Polanco and Arraez would be a nightmarish defensive middle infield. Re-sign Simmons (or his equivalent) and rotate the young guys through short to see what you have.

I don't think the Twins will advertise their 2022 season as " Come see try-outs for 2023!!!" but that's clearly what it is going to be. 

[Wax off]

2nd basemen are a dime a dozen. Polanco is far more valuable at SS even if not good, because he allows you to pick from about a half dozen strong 2B candidates and you can go with who's hot.

Trading for a SS is the absolute worst idea. The team who seeks to trade is the more desperate and imo it shows, especially at a high value position. Want a mediocre SS? It's going to cost a prospect that hurts to give up. Think about someone in our minor league system who would hurt to give up. Now keep him in mind, do you still want to trade? Want to trade Noah Miller for Dejong?

You know if it hurts, it is feasible. I'm interested with what those who want to go the trade route, what are you willing to give up? Name names. I bet most of their suggestions will be non starters, won't move the needle for the other team.

If you are proposing a trade, remember, the prospect(s) you give up HAS TO HURT to do so. Now let's hear some suggestions...

[Wax off]

30 minutes ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Polanco and Arraez would be a nightmarish defensive middle infield. Re-sign Simmons (or his equivalent) and rotate the young guys through short to see what you have.

I like your thinking. A SS by committee is probably the best answer. Simmons and Polanco with Gordon peppered in. If Royce Lewis has a future at SS and is healthy get a look at him near the end of the season and especially if we aren't contending.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Since we're ignoring how the FO feels about this idea, and the defensive limitations, let's close our eyes and daydream about the best-case lineup this creates:

Sano

Garver

Kirilloff

Arraez

Donaldson

Polanco 

Larnach

Buxton

Kepler 

That's why the idea can't be ignored.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

2021 bWAR - 8+ MVP, 5+ AS, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Reserve:

Tatis - 6.6 bWAR     Padres 79-83

Story - 4.2 bWAR   Rockies 74-87

Swanson - 1.9 bWAR  Braves 88-73 WS Champions

Torres - 0.8 bWAR Yankees 92-70

SS bWAR doesn't always indicate team record, especially when most of that bWAR comes from the offensive side, 

Polanco is a better fit at 2B and stands a better chance to remain in the line-up everyday.

I can't (or shouldn't) speak for Nick. However, I believe that you are making the same point he was trying to make. 

You clearly illustrate that assembling a winning baseball team isn't dependent upon having a bWar superstar at SS.

I believe Nick was making that same point by stating that the Twins actually won baseball games with Polanco at SS. So... while recognizing that 2B is a better fit for Polanco it certainly doesn't mean that the wheels will completely come off with him at SS either. 

Speaking for myself now, I think the team was better at the SS and 2B positions overall with Polanco and Arraez than they were with Simmons and Polanco. 

I'm also not endorsing this and calling it progress either. If the Twins want to trade for Mondesi or sign Story, I'd be all for it. However, if Polanco ends up back at SS out of necessity, I think the sun will still rise tomorrow. ?  

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The Twins won 103 games with Jorge Polanco as their starting shortstop. He was an All-Star and 4-WAR player there that year. How many games did Andrelton Simmons win with his historically great UZR last year? He was a sub-replacement level player. 

We all understand Polanco's defensive deficiencies at short. But they need to be weighed against the benefits of this arrangement. 

(BTW, Polanco's UZR/150 was really no better at 2B than at SS, if that's the gauge you're using. Bringing up Sano as an equivalent suggests you're not really making a serious argument here.)

...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971.

Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.

 

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop.

No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years.

And if UZR is not your flavor, he had the worst three year run of any SS on defense according to OOA during the still early Statcast era. 

I don't want to see him at SS at all except in an emergency, extra innings, sort of situation. Let Gordon be the primary backup. Let Arraez be #3 on the depth chart. I truly believe neither of those guys would be worse at SS over 150 games than Polanco. 

[JustWinBaby]

The Twins won their Division in 2019 and 2020 with Polanco at shortstop and Luis Arraez at 2nd Base.  With this lineup the Twins will maximize their ability to score runs and win games in 2022.  Polanco and Arraez are more than good enough defensively at these positions.

[Wax off]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. 

Two division titles are the most recent proof. It's not about his value at SS in a vacuum. It's also about not having to trade for or pay another SS(Polanco is a relatively low cost SS) and being able to play the hot bat at 2B.

[Minny505]

This is a solution looking for a problem. Plan M may be a little too high in the alphabet.

There are a lot of better options potentially available to the Twins for a solution at SS, some long term, some short term. 

Sign:
-Trevor Story
-Andrelton Simmons (prime bounce back candidate in 2022 according to many league wide nerdy analyst types)
-Jose Iglesias

Trade:
-Paul DeJong (rumors are the Cards are not looking to deal him)
-Taylor Walls (stud defensive SS in minors...rumors are the Rays are open to dealing him)
-Ramon Urias (my fave target...rumors are the Orioles are looking to deal him before he slides down the defensive spectrum, as he is still a passable SS, and loses his trade value)

[Old Twins Cap]

If the lockout lasts into May, and then June they start, at that point, playing 80 or 90 games, I think the Twins have options.

Sure, now playing Polanco at SS makes sense.  You bring Lewis and Martin along, you throw young pitchers on the mound, and you hope the team plays .500 baseball.  If not, oh well, it's not a real season anyway.

It's worth seeing what Arraez and Gordon can do, plus Larnach, Rooker and Kiriloff.  Maybe as time goes on, you cut bait and add a quality starter by moving Kepler or Donaldson, especially if Miranda and Kiriloff seem capable.

In other words, in a short season, the Twins play it as a development year, playing young guys, assessing their many pitching assets, and regroup for 2023. 

They aren't going to compete in 2022 anyway.  No way. 

Jorge's ankles can handle SS in a shortened season.  Best to stay in-house and experiment when there is no normal.

[nicksaviking]

I'm probably in the minority, but I've always thought good defense was overrated. While I'd prefer a better option at SS, if the alternate option is Polanco at 2B and another season of a blackhole bat at SS, I guess I'd roll with Polanco again. 

Giving 500 PAs to someone who's going to have a .600 OPS seems way worse than someone who's going to bungle a couple dozen balls as opposed to an average SS who will bungle only a dozen.

But I mean, there's no rule saying the Twins can't go get a SS that's competent with a bat and a glove..........

[dex8425]

7 hours ago, Ryan_K said:

I say get Niko Goodrum for SS and if Royce ends up being ready, then we got a good utility guy with speed.

So....Nick Gordon?? I don't see Niko Goodrum being any better than Gordon, offensively or defensively. 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I don't see the situations as very comparable. The Twins were forced to move Mauer off catcher. They really had no choice in light of his health and the extreme concussion risks behind the plate. If moving him back there were at all a feasible option it would've merited plenty of discussion.

Moving Polanco off SS was much more optional and experimental. It was a shakeup move. I'm dubious of the relatively increased risk to his ankle from moving to another position 20 feet away. Again: he started more than 2 dozen games at SS last year! It's not like they are fiercely opposed to using him there at all.

I think this lockout has made you go searching for angles that don’t make sense. Is this you signing Galvis in your offseason plan 3 months ago? 

Nice work coming up with a story when there are no baseball stories though. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'll add to what the Nicks said:  if we're not willing to sign a Trevor Story or some other big time bat who can field, I'd be totally fine with a Polanco/Arraez middle infield.  What they can do offensively is a major boon and we saw that in our lineup not that long ago.

Meanwhile, a no-glove husk like Andrelton Simmons was a black hole in our lineup day in and day out.  I don't care if he was the Jesus of Shortstops....it ain't worth that black hole.  This isn't your Terry Ryan "Everyone throw a SINKER!" pitching staff any more.  The emphasis on infield defense can take a step back in priority.  

Ideally, sign a guy that can do both and keep Jorge at 2B.  If you can't or won't do that, I won't complain about a MIF that can hit instead of the crap-fest we rolled out at SS last year in the name of defense.

[Dan In Real Life]

I'm less concerned about defense with Polanco at SS (although it was so nice to have Simmons there last year), but the Twins need Polanco's bat in the lineup every day. It appears that everyday SS takes too much of a toll on his ankles. All things considered, I'd prefer to have better defense at SS, and therefore have Polanco's better defense at 2B, but I'm more concerned in keeping him in the lineup. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Wax off said:

Trading for a SS is the absolute worst idea.

This depends on the trade. I think it is fair to say that we don't really know the Twins plans or what other teams desire in any trade. A couple of players mentioned are worth a quick kick though. Mondesi for Duffey might be amenable or maybe the Twins add a prospect in the 40-50 range. Walls for Duffey and Woods-Richardson hurts enough. DeJong for Cavaco? These are examples, not necessarily recommendations, but the trade market is out there, especially for pitchers. You are correct, the Twins would need to give up something to get something.

[wsnydes]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm probably in the minority, but I've always thought good defense was overrated. While I'd prefer a better option at SS, if the alternate option is Polanco at 2B and another season of a blackhole bat at SS, I guess I'd roll with Polanco again. 

Giving 500 PAs to someone who's going to have a .600 OPS seems way worse than someone who's going to bungle a couple dozen balls as opposed to an average SS who will bungle only a dozen.

But I mean, there's no rule saying the Twins can't go get a SS that's competent with a bat and a glove..........

If the option is black hole or Polanco at SS, I chose option C and roll with Martin/Lewis/Palacios and see what happens.  

That said, I don't think Lewis will be ready.  Martin might be pushed, but I think I'm okay with that.  And Palacios is entirely a wild card.  I'm kinda in the mindset that I really need a minor leaguer to just jump up and take the position.  That likely requires a spring training though.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I think this lockout has made you go searching for angles that don’t make sense. Is this you signing Galvis in your offseason plan 3 months ago? 

Nice work coming up with a story when there are no baseball stories though. 

Yep. And now look: Galvis is off the table. You're left with Simmons (no thanks) and Iglesias, coming off a horrible season. What else? 

That plan was about sacrificing at SS to invest heavily in pitching (I had them signing Verlander and Gray). That's not happening. The big free agent SP splashes are gone. So now it's about sacrificing at SS to invest for pitching in trades, because that's really their only path to finding significant upgrades at either spot. If they go get Story, I'm fully on board and I drop this idea. I just don't see it happening. 

If this front office has shown anything, it's the ability to make a pivot when things don't go as hoped or planned.