How many current prospects will become major league pitchers

[Major League Ready]

I made a mistake on the original and reposted.  My apologies!  Just to clarify, there is no time frame.  How many players currently on team control will eventually become ML playerslong enough to achieve these milestones?

[cHawk]

I could see Duran, Balazovic, Ryan, Ober, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Petty, SWR, and Strotman all becoming reliable major league pitchers.

How many will? We can’t know as of right now.

I went with 10 or more because I’m a homer.

[jimbo92107]

With all the pressure to throw hard, plus spin the ball a ridiculous amount, elbows and shoulders will always be tearing apart. I guess you look for the guys that seem to have an "easy" motion with a bit less torque on sensitive places. Ober looks smooth, and he doesn't throw a lot of excess pitches per batter. Ryan plows through batters, but his motion looks hard on the elbow and shoulder. Haven't seen much of the others, but several of them have already had surgeries, right? 

[USAFChief]

I'd wager a lot of money on "less than 5," but I'd want a definition of "current prospects" beforehand.

 

I'd assume it's something like "less than 80 days of MLB service time" or thereabouts?

[Dman]

I said 5 to 6 but it could end up less than 5.  I feel like Balazovich can make it.  His arm has been solid to this point.  Ryan already had a taste and looked pretty good.  I am a big believer in Winder and he seems to have a solid build as well.  He had a tough second half but with SWR having success at AA at 21 he also seems like a good bet to make it barring injury. I have Canterino having the stuff to make but wondering about injury. Strotman is the last guy I have for making it.  That delivery is so smooth it is a thing of beauty to me.  He needs to find a way to miss more bats but if he does he looks like a good one to me.

I just don't know about Sands.  He has definitely has the stuff to be a reliever but I am questioning his ability to start and stay healthy.  I don't trust Durans arm to hold up maybe not even as a pen arm.  Vallimont looks like he will have a tough time succeeding because he has a hard time throwing strikes.  I like Louie but still see him more as a reliever.  He can feel free to prove me wrong this year.  I don't trust Raya's arm.  Enlow still has a good chance but with him being so far away it is hard to know how he will come back from surgery.  Hajjar, Povich, Petty, McCloud I just haven't seen enough of them to say yet.

It sure feels like a good group.  This is the hardest throwing group of guys this system has ever put together and I have to believe some of these guys end up being good.  Hard to say who will make it out of the 15 or so guys with potential.

[DocBauer]

I said 8-9 and not just because I'm a homer and eternal optimist. I chose that due to the number of viable arms in the system, and because eventually a couple of them will be traded to other teams and probably have some success elsewhere. Additionally, a couple will meet the criteria as RP.

MLR, love the post and I think your criteria is fair. But in addition to "how many" we could also discuss a list of "most likely". Granted, that's hard due to some very interesting arms only drafted the last couple of years and delays from covid, etc, just saying it might be interesting to discuss "best bets" as far as we can speculate. 

I like Ryan a lot, though I'm not sure yet if he rises above being a #3. I disagree his delivery is a problem. I think it's just "different" wich is also part of what makes him so successful despite average velocity. 

I think Winder and Balazovic have the stuff, and the build, to be stalwarts. How good could they be? I NEVER predict ANYTHING like ACE potential because it's just bogus to do so. History has shown flame outs and guys you never expected to be an ACE becoming such after a few years of experience. But I would say these 2 have a real chance to be top of the order arms.

PURE STUFF in the system belongs to Duran, Canterino and the way too young to even talk about Petty. IMO, we simply can't dismiss 2020 affecting 2021 and be woeful in regard to injuries suffered by pitchers. ALL teams were affected at both the ML AND the milb level. At this point there is zero reason to believe Duran and Canterino are injury risks. How about they just have a "normal" off-season now and see what 2022 brings? As talented as they both are, I'm 100% OK if the Twins "baby" them a bit initially. Cantrino has a very strange windup. I get that. But he states it's comfortable,repeatable, and it produced a great college career. For now, I'm accepting of what he says and waiting to see what this season brings. At WORST, these 2 provide a high ceiling as BP arms IF their delivery/arms force such a move.

I think Sands just might surprise us all. He just keeps doing well and keeps getting the job done.

Vallimont's control, and WHIP, were much better in 2019 than 2021. His K rates are great and his stuff is nasty. That's why he was protected. Just how good might he be if the 2019 version is closer to his potential? Granted, he's a wild card in this conversation as a SP or RP or flameout. But he's got an arm!

SWR is just so young, and promoted so quickly, but is and has been so highly regarded as a prospect with so much potential, who cares if he needs 2yrs to arrive?

Strotman is a guy I'm focusing on. He throws mid to upper 90's and seems to have some solid secondary pitches. He's been promoted aggressively after his TJ. His AAA numbers before the Twins acquired him were very solid. He's confessed he was still working on some things and maybe tried too hard to impress his new team after the trade. He was NOT a "throw in" with Ryan in the Cruz trade. 

I'm going to stop here before I get in to the next 5-7 options including Varland, Gipson-Long, Laweryson, etc, our top draftees from 2021, etc. And I haven't touched on BP options such as Moran, Gore, etc. I don't need to.

Not everyone will make it, much less make a difference or meet the OP criteria. But the depth and number of options to "make a difference" and meet the listed criteria tells me at least 8-9 will do so.

We should be very excited about what's coming up the next couple of years, and what they might become, IMHO.

 

[Rosterman]

If you could predict the 750 inning thing, you wouldn't need a lot of prospects. That's five fulltime seasons in baseball, or 7-8 with some starter seasons. 

Balazovic, Varland, Winders, Ober, Ryan, Centerino, Petty are all keeps that I expect to be the foundation of the rotation going forth and playing for the Twins thru their arbitration years. I would NOT trade any of them.

 

Strotman, Jax, Woods-Richardson, Enlow, Leguminia, Gipson-Long, Mooney all have a chance of holding a spot in the rotation.

 

Sands, Duran, Cano, Moran, Mason, Valimont, Funderburk, Sharpe should all be notable bullpen arms contributing the Twins for 3-5 years.

 

Hamilton, Lujan, Rozek,. Gore, Sisk, Rijo, Milacki, German, Acosta will ALL see action with the team in the future.

 

[cHawk]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd wager a lot of money on "less than 5," but I'd want a definition of "current prospects" beforehand.

 

I'd assume it's something like "less than 80 days of MLB service time" or thereabouts?

I would say guys who haven’t had their “rookie season” yet. I think it would be next year for guys like Ryan and Ober? I could be wrong.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd wager a lot of money on "less than 5," but I'd want a definition of "current prospects" beforehand.

 

I'd assume it's something like "less than 80 days of MLB service time" or thereabouts?

I defined it as under team control.  To me that means any player we have drafted or traded for that is currently in our system.  Does this need further clarification?

The 750 innings or 200 appearances was used as a means to qualify SPs and RPs in meaningful terms.

Like cHawk I assumed anyone qualified for ROY is still a prospect but I should have made that designation directly.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

 

MLR, love the post and I think your criteria is fair. But in addition to "how many" we could also discuss a list of "most likely". Granted, that's hard due to some very interesting arms only drafted the last couple of years and delays from covid, etc, just saying it might be interesting to discuss "best bets" as far as we can speculate. 

Good point.  I assumed that conversation would follow because that’s the logical way to approach this estimate. That’s basically how I came to my number.  I looked at this way.  Of the group of Ober / Ryan / Balazovic / Winder / SWR / Duran / Canterino, I expect 4 will make either the IP or appearance threshold.

Of the group of Enlow / Raya / Sands / Varland / Gipson-Long / Povich / Hajjar / Petty / Moran / Strotman and Cotton, 4 will make it.  

Then, I added 2 more from all other prospects for a total of 10.  Then I voted 6-7 to account for my homerism.  I do honestly think the current system has 10 guys that can make either the IP or appearance threshold.  Injury will play a role and we are going to find out if we have built a better machine (pitching development) over the next 2-3 years.
 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I defined it as under team control.  To me that means any player we have drafted or traded for that is currently in our system.  Does this need further clarification?

The 750 innings or 200 appearances was used as a means to qualify SPs and RPs in meaningful terms.

Like cHawk I assumed anyone qualified for ROY is still a prospect but I should have made that designation directly.

Anyone qualified for Roy seems like a good definition. 

 

"Under team control" doesn't. Jorge Alcala is under team control, but I don't think he can be fairly described as a "prospect."

 

I'll stick with under 5. I would guess that'd be true for most teams throughout history.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Anyone qualified for Roy seems like a good definition. 

 

"Under team control" doesn't. Jorge Alcala is under team control, but I don't think he can be fairly described as a "prospect."

 

I'll stick with under 5. I would guess that'd be true for most teams throughout history.

You're right.  This needed to be defined.  I was thinking in terms of prospects being minor leaguers but it's reasonable to ask does prospects include Jorge Alcala.  

BTW ... I would take that bet.  There are more than 4 guys that will meet this criteria unless we have horrible luck with injuries killing careers.

[Trov]

Without knowing the definition of "current prospect"  I cannot answer.  If it means any player that could qualify still for a ROY award.  I would say 10 or more.  It may take a long time, but I would say at least 10 pitchers in the system will either get 750 innings or 200 appearances over their careers. It may not be with the Twins that whole time though.  That is because, someone needs to pitch those innings. 

If it is required with the Twins, or need to be on some prospect list right now, then much harder to predict.  

[twinfan]

Please list those "prospects" and how many are there? I'd guess 6, maybe 7. You just don't know where they will wind up but, if they are true prospects, then either we will have them or someone else will- assuming they don't get hurt. With relievers making 50-60 appearances, it won't take more than 3-4 seasons to get there. The innings part will be more difficult.

[Riverbrian]

A Funny thing happens when players are provided an opportunity to become major leaguers. With opportunity, they often do.  

You can only commit so many 40 man roster spaces to pitching before you don't have enough shortstops to cover or before pitching spillage starts to occur.

Just glancing at the queue on the 40 man roster tells me all I need to know.  It tells me that the Twins don't have the roster space to sign multiple 1 year deals with the Shoemaker types any more without losing young arms to do so. We also all know that the Twins will not be signing Max Scherzer types.

I personally hope and pray that Balazovic types will be chosen over Shoemaker types consistently from here on out. 

So... the path they are heading seems clear to me, Opportunity is coming for the young arms and with opportunity, the number of pitchers who will meet the 750 innings criteria will be high because opportunity is high. 

Just don't ask me which ones. ?

 

[Prince William]

A quick thought on extended mediocre pitchers with a high upside has led me to consider 2 current pitchers. Seeing that Duffrey has well over 200 appearances  and Alcala already has 77 games, appearances, for any reliever with a chance they should be able to make the appearance threshold. 

750 innings pitched. Dylan Bundy has got that. So again, mediocrity with a high ceiling will give you a chance.

Now you can all look back on Seth's pitcher  rankings and you should have 13-14 pitchers with an upside high enough to get to the 200 appearance level or 750 innings. If my glasses were rosier , it would be all 30

 

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Good point.  I assumed that conversation would follow because that’s the logical way to approach this estimate. That’s basically how I came to my number.  I looked at this way.  Of the group of Ober / Ryan / Balazovic / Winder / SWR / Duran / Canterino, I expect 4 will make either the IP or appearance threshold.

Of the group of Enlow / Raya / Sands / Varland / Gipson-Long / Povich / Hajjar / Petty / Moran / Strotman and Cotton, 4 will make it.  

Then, I added 2 more from all other prospects for a total of 10.  Then I voted 6-7 to account for my homerism.  I do honestly think the current system has 10 guys that can make either the IP or appearance threshold.  Injury will play a role and we are going to find out if we have built a better machine (pitching development) over the next 2-3 years.
 

I have to confess I forgot to list Ober in my post, but only because I was thinking he's "made it" at this point and not a "prospect" only because he no longer qualifies as a rookie. So that was me placing a qualifier on him. But adding him to the conversation, and he should be, onlybre-affirms my position on the numbers who will meet your criteria.

And I like your breakdown of two groupings. One so very close and another too far away right now but talented and worth speculating on.

Concerning the 2nd group, Hajjer and Povich could sky rocket being high selections and college pitchers. Enlow will obviously need a little time to get healthy and re-established again. Not sure what I might be missing on Sands. So many have him penciled in as a bullpen piece but he's been getting the job done in the rotation each and every year. I found it very interesting during the last Gleeman and the Geek podcast that Aaron had heard Raya looked terrific coming out of instructs.

Lastly, I'm higher on Strotman than most. He was actually ranked higher than Ryan in the Ray's system before his injury. Post TJ he skipped AA and went straight to AAA. That's pretty significant. His control was a little off, as might be expected, but his overall performance was quite good. Now, was he trying to hard to prove himself to the Twins post trade, or was he running out of gas? Hard to say. But he's got the frame, mid to upper 90's velocity with at least decent offerings. I could easily be wrong, but I've just got a feeling he's going to surprise us this year.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

A Funny thing happens when players are provided an opportunity to become major leaguers. With opportunity, they often do.  

You can only commit so many 40 man roster spaces to pitching before you don't have enough shortstops to cover or before pitching spillage starts to occur.

Just glancing at the queue on the 40 man roster tells me all I need to know.  It tells me that the Twins don't have the roster space to sign multiple 1 year deals with the Shoemaker types any more without losing young arms to do so. We also all know that the Twins will not be signing Max Scherzer types.

I personally hope and pray that Balazovic types will be chosen over Shoemaker types consistently from here on out. 

So... the path they are heading seems clear to me, Opportunity is coming for the young arms and with opportunity, the number of pitchers who will meet the 750 innings criteria will be high because opportunity is high. 

Just don't ask me which ones. ?

 

Good, bad, right, or wrong, push has come to shove and the Twins have to either package a bunch of arms in deals, OR, they have to start pitching and auditioning these kids for now and the future. And I think we know which way they're going to go. And I'm OK with that, it's got to be done. We might even surprise a lot of pundits, and ourselves, and actually have an OK year piecing it all together.

I still think they will sign at least one additional FA arm, maybe two, because it's a long season, presumedly, and we need IP. 

BTW, nice to have you back Brian! Missed ya dude!