The Case Against the Twins Trading Luis Arraez

[ToddlerHarmon]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios
• LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave
• RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker

Now let's remove the guys who have NOT proven they are MLB hitters yet:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers,
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Sano, Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Arraez
• LF Depth - 
• CF Depth - Buxton
• RF Depth - Kepler
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson

So, if Larnach hits, you need Arraez less. But proven depth? No.

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a lot of names, but that list is not impressive to me.

Garver- Can't stay healthy and is on the wrong side of 30 already playing the most demanding position physically. Stud when he's healthy, though.
Jeffers- Are we sure he can hit? Nobody can claim he's proved it yet.
Rortvedt- Are we sure he can hit above .180 even?
Kirilloff- Are we sure he'll suddenly get over his almost yearly wrist injuries? Very likely stud if he can stay healthy.
Sano- Is most likely gone after this year.
Rooker- We know he can't field, are we sure he can hit? Certainly hasn't proved he can hit.
Larnach- Won't kill you in the field like Rooker, but isn't very good. We sure he's the first month Larnach and not the last 3 months Larnach?
Polanco- Stud.
Arraez- Hits/OB machine we know isn't above average at 3 positions, but isn't embarassing.
Gordon- Brings much needed speed and athleticism. Can he hit? Certainly not an everyday guy.
Miranda- We sure his 1 year sample is the real deal or the rest of his career when he wasn't even good enough to get picked in the rule 5? I have faith, but there's been better prospects who have failed.
Donaldson- Not getting any younger. Will spend more and more time at DH for next 2 years if he doesn't get traded before then.
Palacios- Why do we think he's a major leaguer? If that's what anyone thinks he'll be taken in the rule 5 and won't be here anyways.
Celestino- Looks like a very good option as future 4th OFer.
Cave- Really? Cave's part of the reason we can afford to move Arraez? He's not even on the 40-man and no major league team claimed him.
Buxton- Can't stay healthy, but is a stud when he is healthy.
Kepler- Big time defender, some time hitter.

I don't see the depth here. Arraez is a proven ML hitter. He's 1 of 6 or 7 on your list. That's not even a full starting lineup! I love prospects and have high hopes for many of the young guys we have, but we need to quit acting like Jeffers, Rortvedt, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Miranda, and Celestino are any sort of sure things. Kirilloff looks every part the future star, but wrist injuries are killers for hitters. The rest of them have had almost no major league success at all let alone sustained success. So yes, we have a lot of names. But, no, we don't have great depth.

It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Now let's remove the guys who have NOT proven they are MLB hitters yet:

• C Depth - Garver, Jeffers,
• 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Sano, Donaldson, Garver
• 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez
• 3B Depth - Donaldson, Arraez
• SS Depth - ?, Arraez
• LF Depth - 
• CF Depth - Buxton
• RF Depth - Kepler
• DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson

So, if Larnach hits, you need Arraez less. But proven depth? No.

What the does Larnach have to do with 2B depth? I addressed depth for the whole position player roster.

If ice cream sandwiches are better with Neopolitan ice cream than chocolate chip vanilla ice cream, then clearly Arraez isn't needed. However, if you like chocolate ice cream in your ice cream sandwich, then clearly, you can't count on the Twins' depth at 2B.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

Depth is absolutely supposed to be impressive when the discussion is whether or not to trade a proven major league player. Which is the discussion here. If the depth isn't impressive and can't reasonably be expected to replace that player you have no depth in regards to the discussion at hand. The Twins don't have Arraez replacing depth. That's the point.

The list you provided shows how little depth the Twins have at any position and this idea that they're so deep offensively that they should be trading offense for pitching isn't based in reality. That's the discussion. They have no proven depth at any position. Best argument is Jeffers and Garver, but Jeffers is far from proven and Garver is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. Plus you need 2 catchers.

Now there's always risks to be taken and that changes the discussion a little, but not drastically in this case. Martin looks like Arraez at the plate with much more athleticism. I have very high hopes for him, but he's not even close to proven. And I'd prefer him in LF over the IF (I'm not a "you need to hit with power to play here" person so I'm sure many will disagree with that stance). At some point some chances need to be taken on young guys replacing established major leaguers. It's usually a financial situation that leads to that. The Twins aren't in that spot with Arraez. The question here is really about putting your faith in the young pitchers to perform or the young hitters. Either you need a young hitter to replace Arraez or you need a young pitcher to fill a rotation spot. With the Twins having drastically more near MLB ready arms than bats I'd prefer they see what they have in the arms.

[se7799]

On 1/17/2022 at 4:29 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere   Nice job bean)!!

Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy."  

We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense.  Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday.  And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF.

There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options.  Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power.  Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense.  He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine,  but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well).  I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez.  It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense.  If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.

When has he ever been even close to our 9th. 8th, or even 7th best offensive player?  What stats or metrics are you using to grade him this low?  I'm guessing if his career numbers put him as our 8th best batter we would have one heck of a lineup.