Could the Twins Weather the Blowback of a Luis Arraez Trade?

[Major League Ready]

Arraez was 142nd among position players in Fwar last year.  Let's not get too carried away with his trade value or any suggestion that he could not be replaced.  

[Squirrel]

On 1/12/2022 at 12:37 PM, yeahyabetcha said:

I suppose there is stat that shows Arraez is a better fielding SS than Simmons as well.

This thread isn't about Simmons. Stop it.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No.  They are not going to trade Arraez and add prospects so that they can be a 500 team this year.  The entire premise and line of reasoning revolves around the theory they must go for it this year when all indications are they are playing the long game.  My guess is the only way they trade Arraez is for a ML ready or close to ready SS or a high ceiling pitching prospect.

The line of reasoning revolves around his value to the team vs. the value of a potential return. We agree, the Twins almost certainly aren't adding prospects, at least any of high pedigree, to a deal, and he's not likely to fetch a sizeable return on his own. I don't see any teams giving up a quality SS or a high tier pitching prospect for that type of package. The Twins can still pay for the type of proven big league pitching they're likely to get in an Arraez trade, and his value as a utility player is worth more to the team over the next 3+ seasons than a mid tier lotto ticket. 

[stringer bell]

A little late to the party here, but put me in the “Arraez is tradable” camp. Arraez is elite in making contact, has a very good idea of the strike zone and gets on base. All of the above skills are rare and in demand in this “three true outcomes” era. In addition, Luis has seen considerable action at three defensive positions—second, third and left—providing versatility. That gives him a lot of value, particularly with four years to go to free agency. 
 

The Twins have another player in the pipeline, Austin Martin, who approximates Arraez’ skills with more speed and who yet may develop power than Arraez will ever possess. Who knows? Perhaps Martin is the Twins’ shortstop of the future, although I’m not banking on that. Assuming that his contributions are replaceable and that his skills have value, combined with four years of team control, Luis Arraez should have a lot of value and net the Twins either frontline pitching or an everyday player (shortstop?). 
 

A couple more thoughts. If the Twins we’re to start the season with the current roster, Arraez would be my pick to be the Opening Day left fielder. Secondly, from both the eye test and BBRef fielding stats, Arraez is an okay defender at all three of the positions he played last year. Finally, and perhaps the deciding factor would be his durability. Troublesome knees usually don’t improve. 

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

If the Twins we’re to start the season with the current roster, Arraez would be my pick to be the Opening Day left fielder.

Arraez is a very good OBP machine and he doesn't hurt too much playing infield. Rooker has unrealized power potential. They both look about the same in left field and the pitchers aren't happy to see their names penciled in there. Remember that mistakes in the infield are usually one base while two bases is the charge for a miscue in the outfield. 

Pretty much everyone loves to watch Arraez bat. The issue is that he does not have a position with the Twins. This is a tough situation and why this post has many comments. 

[RpR]

I hate to say it but Arraez IS a good back-up at second, and his numbers in Left Field look not bad at all but then the alternatives a Larnach and Rooker, whose numbers in left stink,  not hard to believe they should keep him around , and I have ZERO love for Arraez.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The line of reasoning revolves around his value to the team vs. the value of a potential return. We agree, the Twins almost certainly aren't adding prospects, at least any of high pedigree, to a deal, and he's not likely to fetch a sizeable return on his own. I don't see any teams giving up a quality SS or a high tier pitching prospect for that type of package. The Twins can still pay for the type of proven big league pitching they're likely to get in an Arraez trade, and his value as a utility player is worth more to the team over the next 3+ seasons than a mid tier lotto ticket. 

If that's all he would bring, I agree.  However, if he is good as we all think, why wouldn't he bring back a Jordan Balazovic type SP prospect or a 50 or 55FV type SS prospect?  If we really think Lewis of Martin will stick, the focus should be pitching but I just don't see justification for any deep confidence one of those guys is going to be our SS for 6-10 years.

While I don't see anyone ready to take his place opening day, we have several guys that could be even better in that utility role.  Martin / Miranda / Julien or even Lewis if he does not stick at SS.

[tony&rodney]

Arraez may interest Miami because Jazz Chisholm would likely be a good CF. San Diego could use a decent leadoff hitter and move Cronenworth to !B. Oakland needs a 2B and leadoff hitter. There are options. I'm ok if Arraez is a utility player (who doesn't play much defense) for the Twins, but the team still needs to add a minimum of two experienced starting pitchers and a shortstop. 

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If that's all he would bring, I agree.  However, if he is good as we all think, why wouldn't he bring back a Jordan Balazovic type SP prospect or a 50 or 55FV type SS prospect?  If we really think Lewis of Martin will stick, the focus should be pitching but I just don't see justification for any deep confidence one of those guys is going to be our SS for 6-10 years.

While I don't see anyone ready to take his place opening day, we have several guys that could be even better in that utility role.  Martin / Miranda / Julien or even Lewis if he does not stick at SS.

He's replaceable/redundant for the Twins, but still so valuable that he'll net a top 100 prospect? If MN can actually get a good starting SS or a front of the rotation prospect for Arraez, it'd be hard to say no, but I just don't see a team that'd be willing to pay such a steep price. 

Martin and Lewis should be everyday players unless something goes drastically wrong. Miranda could be a better utility replacement, but there will be vacancies at 1B, 3B, and possibly LF depending on what happens with Larnach & Kepler. Trading Arraez this offseason to clear a hypothetical logjam seems premature. 

[Major League Ready]

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He's replaceable/redundant for the Twins, but still so valuable that he'll net a top 100 prospect? If MN can actually get a good starting SS or a front of the rotation prospect for Arraez, it'd be hard to say no, but I just don't see a team that'd be willing to pay such a steep price. 

Martin and Lewis should be everyday players unless something goes drastically wrong. Miranda could be a better utility replacement, but there will be vacancies at 1B, 3B, and possibly LF depending on what happens with Larnach & Kepler. Trading Arraez this offseason to clear a hypothetical logjam seems premature. 

Sounds about right.  They have lots of time to trade him.  If they wait Donaldson might end up being moved and they get more time to evaluate Miranda/Martin & Lewis.  I expect they wouldn't move him unless they really liked the return.

[Andrew Mahlke]

On 1/14/2022 at 9:17 AM, Kipp35 said:

I know it made no sense to hold on to Buxton for '22 if he didn't wish to re-sign, but his motivation to sign with the Twins was stoked when he saw he had no value to other teams when he was shopped at the deadline.

Your original statement of wanting the Twins to spend money, then me being upset when the Twins do spend money, was the source of my comment with the others that signed during FA. I understand the breakdown of yearly money wasn't similar for all of them, but that would have been a better show of spending appropriate money to fill actual needs for the team. CF is/was not a glaring hole on this team, but pitching is, and still is.

Your reply mentioned Scherzer and Gray, which we (I) knew that Scherzer was never coming here no matter the money, but there were others on that list, too.

Robbie Ray $115m/9yrs = 12.8m/yr

Steve Matz $44m/4yrs = 11m/yr

Although in the 20's there was still Syndergaard (who the Twins were linked to several times for trade) and Stroman.

But instead we shored up our rotation by giving Dylan Bundy $5m/1yr!?

Bundy's career line is: 46W/57L, 4.72ERA, 758K's/770IP - So, he is a career losing pitcher with an ERA over 4.5 and less than 1K per inning pitched.

If the Twins feel Bundy is worth $5m per season, then why could they not stretch for some of the others mentioned here, who are far more proven assets?

So again, I am not mad when the team spends money, as long as that money makes sense. I felt Donaldson was a bold move, and the former MVP could still put up numbers while filling a hole at 3B and DH. But I don't believe another team would have given Buxton $100m plus incentives, and his camp knew that, too. And that is why he agreed to the offer from the Twins. He was not giving us a 'hometown discount', he took the money he knew no one else was going to offer him. That's bad money on the part of the Twins and smart business on the part of Buxton.

Ray was 115 for 5 so 23M per year