3 Concerns with Tyler Duffey’s 2021 Season

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s bullpen has plenty of question marks heading into the 2022 season. Tyler Duffey is supposed to be one of the team’s most reliable late-inning options, but his 2021 campaign showcased some worrisome signs.

From 2019-20, Duffey had been one of baseball’s best relievers. Across 80 games, he posted a 2.31 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP and 12.5 K/9. In fact, MLB.com ranked Duffey as one of baseball’s best relievers entering the 2021 season. Minnesota used Duffey as a fireman out of the bullpen, and he was successful in this role. Things changed in 2022 as he struggled for the first time since becoming a full-time reliever. So, what are some concerns with his 2021 performance?

Concern 1: Surrendering Hard Hits
Giving up hard contact is never a good trait for a pitcher, and this problem can be even more apparent with relievers and a smaller sample size. During the 2021 season, Duffey’s average exit velocity (4th percentile) and hard hit% (7th percentile) were among the lowest in baseball. Back in 2019, his hard-hit % ranked in the 48th percentile, so this was quite the drop from the last full season. 

Last season, his four-seam fastball was one of the pitches that resulted in the aforementioned changes. His slugging percentage on his fastball was .289 in 2020, and he allowed a .374 slugging percentage in 2021. Duffey was pitching from behind more regularly in 2021, which meant he saw an increase in his fastball usage by 5%. His fastball velocity isn’t elite, so good hitters will be able to square it up and make hard contact. 

Concern 2: Decrease in Strikeouts
Another concern with Duffey’s 2021 season was the significant dip in strikeout percentage. During 2019-20, his 12.5 SO/9 is exactly what teams want from a late-inning reliever. His K% ranked in the 92 percentile or higher in each of those seasons. Last season, his K% dropped to the 54th percentile as he posted an 8.8 SO/9 which was a career-worst since moving to the bullpen.  

Last season, Duffey posted a 40 K% with his four-seamer, but that dropped to 22% in 2021. In the previous three seasons, his curveball has averaged nearly 35 K%, but he only got a 25.4 K% in 2021. His Whiff% with his curveball also dropped almost 14%. Since he was behind in the count more regularly, there’s a good chance he couldn’t use his pitch mix to the best of his advantage. 

Concern 3: Change in Pitch Usage
Duffey also saw increased use in his sinker last season, which doesn’t cause issues on the surface. Using a new pitch can keep batters off-balance, but Duffey’s sinker didn’t do that at all. Opponents posted a .444 batting average with a .556 slugging percentage when facing his sinker. It also had the lowest Whiff% of any of his pitches. Luckily, he only threw his sinker 44 times, but the results were lacking. 

His other pitches also saw some change in usage. In his first two seasons as a reliever, he saw increased curveball use. Last year, he decreased usage of his curveball by nearly 5%. Some of this change in pitch usage was related to being behind in the count more regularly. This forced him to cut back on his curveball and turn to his fastball, which had disastrous results. 

Duffey is entering a critical year of his professional career. Next winter, he will hit the free-agent market, and he is coming off a career-worst season. In a contract year, the 2022 campaign will go a long way in determining the kind of market he will face in his first taste of free agency. Relief pitchers can be fickle, and Minnesota hopes that Duffey can alleviate these worries in 2022.

What are you most worried about with Duffey’s 2021 performance? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Did Duffy change his pitch selection or did the catchers or did Wes Johnson or Rocco? Do the catchers share some of the blame for the pitch selection or should Wes have gotten the catchers to call the curve more and quickly eliminate the sinker? I blame Duffy's failure to get ahead in the count on Duffy.

[Trov]

It seems to me much of the issues was pitch useage.  Figure out what may have led to that and see if you can get back to past pitching and hopefully he rebounds.  

[puckstopper1]

Excellent analysis.  I'd be curious to see if there were any changes to his spin rates (especially on his curve ball), location and velocity.

If there were, my next question would be if the "rule changes" regarding substance checking may have played into this.

Bottom line, the Twins really need the 2019/2022 Duffey going forward.

[Brandon]

Didn't Duffy get better in the 2nd half of the season.  I imagine 2020 played a part in control issues and getting out of rhythm.  I suspect Duffy will be fine this coming season.  

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Didn't Duffy get better in the 2nd half of the season.  I imagine 2020 played a part in control issues and getting out of rhythm.  I suspect Duffy will be fine this coming season.  

Bingo! I don't have any numbers in front of me...sure someone can find them easily...but I did hear/read about a significant difference in his numbers between the halves of the season. 

Also, while I don't want to be accused of wearing rose-colored glasses, it's not uncommon for any reliever to suddenly have a poor year or half a year. It's the volatility of the position, and I think we all understand that. All but the truly elite usually have some hiccups here and there. I would be more worried if he started the season strong and finished poorly. I'm going with the "he figured it out the second half and is healthy coming in to 2022 and I think he should be fine" argument. (doesn't mean I'm not crossing fingers for he and Rogers both, however).

[terrydactyls]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Bingo! I don't have any numbers in front of me...sure someone can find them easily...but I did hear/read about a significant difference in his numbers between the halves of the season. 

Also, while I don't want to be accused of wearing rose-colored glasses, it's not uncommon for any reliever to suddenly have a poor year or half a year. It's the volatility of the position, and I think we all understand that. All but the truly elite usually have some hiccups here and there. I would be more worried if he started the season strong and finished poorly. I'm going with the "he figured it out the second half and is healthy coming in to 2022 and I think he should be fine" argument. (doesn't mean I'm not crossing fingers for he and Rogers both, however).

ERA was lower in the second half.  Batting Average Against was higher.  Slugging percentage was higher.  OBP was lower.  K/9 went up.  BB/9 went down.  WHIP went down. FIP went down.  xFIP went down.

[DocBauer]

42 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

ERA was lower in the second half.  Batting Average Against was higher.  Slugging percentage was higher.  OBP was lower.  K/9 went up.  BB/9 went down.  WHIP went down. FIP went down.  xFIP went down.

So to quote an infamous line: "you're saying there is a chance". Lol

Thank you terry for the numbers. I knew someone would have them. BA against and slugging higher could cause some concern, of course, but higher, or lower, in all other measures indicates a general turnaround in his season. And again, I think we all understand the numbers of a RP are volatile. BA against can be a bit of hard luck for a pitcher as well as the opposite for a hitter who comes in to some bad luck. The slugging percentage would concern me more in the long run. But when you factor in lower OB and Whip and higher K rates, etc, etc, I think we saw a more "normal" Duffey the last half of 2021. 

I expect the "normal" Duffey to be in play for 2022 as he's experienced, healthy, and only 31yo. There's a lot of tread left on the tires here, IMO.

[Stew]

He finished the stronger than he started. I think he will figure it out. It's funny how many players have one of there better years going into free agency years.

[h2oface]

Duffey got soft, flabby, and out of shape. I hope he takes his career seriously and addresses that, or already has. 

[jimbo92107]

Duffy's success depends on commanding his heater at 96. If he loses command at that velo, or his velo goes down, then he's in trouble. But at 96, he can get K's, and he can get guys to swing early at his off-speed stuff, It also makes his curve an out pitch.