Retrospective: Twins Playoff Failures

[cHawk]

I was thinking about writing in length about this. I might do it eventually, but I decided to make this more of an open discussion.

Here are some questions to consider: (no poll this time)

1. Which playoff failure of 2003-present was the most bitter of them all? (in your eyes, of course)
2. What are the recurring themes in these failures?
3. Is the current FO/leadership capable of getting the team over the hump one day?

[gunnarthor]

If you look at the match-ups from 02-10, the Twins averaged something like 92-93 wins each year and their opponents averaged about 100 (A's 103 and 93, Angels 99, Yankees 101, 101, 103 and 95), The 2010 team went into the playoffs with 25% of their payroll on the DL against the 95 win Yankees. We just didn't have the depth to play with them. The only series they should have won in that period was 06 against the A's. Statistically, the Twins outhit the A's in the three game series but even that year, injuries affected the team. Liriano was out and Radke was pitching with a torn labrum. Boof Bosner and Jose Mijares stood up huge for us down the stretch. 06 is the one that we should have won.

The '17 wildcard game was too freakish. Buxton got hurt in the 1st inning, we knocked out their ace before they knocked out our ace. If the ump hadn't given Didi four strikes, who knows what happens in that game. Anything can happen in a one game playoff but their pen out-played ours. 

19 and 20 are different. We weren't completely outclassed in either. In 20, Houston actually had a losing record, which will be a strange * in Twins history. But our bats just didn't show up in that series. Houston was better than their record but we were better than them. But it was a strange season so maybe we weren't as good as our record either. The Yankee series in 2019 was just ugly. Their hitters made Berrios throw 88 pitches in just four innings, a big error on Cron, and our pen couldn't hold anything. Game 2 we started Dobnak and no playoff team should do that. Game 3 we were already defeated and the pen gave up a lot more runs.

I think the main two problems we have always had are 1) depth and 2) bullpen. Depth is more an ownership issue rather than a FO issue. The Twins have had to start guys like Duensing, Dobnak, Blackburn and Bosner in important playoff games. The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox don't do that. They pay for depth. Our irstwhile ace coming into this year was a bullpen arm for the Dodgers. The bullpen is a similar issue, if you can't pay for pitching, you have to rely on guys on journeymen contracts or rookie contracts. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. But the Twins have so little room for error that it makes competing in the post-season harder. An injury to one bullpen arm moves everyone up a slot and into higher leverage situations then they are used to. Remember, the Astros had pitching issues, they went out and traded for Verlander. We will never do that.* The Tigers looked at their rebuild, liked what they saw, and have added significantly this offseason with more likely to come. We won't do that.

I don't think this FO can get us over the hump but others will differ. This FO has already failed to keep the window of opportunity open for the core they inherited. I don't see them getting the Twins to the playoffs next year and suspect they'll be fired after the season. 

 

* In fact, ownerships decades long BS about payroll and cost has made it harder for the FO to make 'win-now' type trades as the fanbase went crazy over the Ramos and Jepsen trades. 

[Longdistancetwins]

You are brave to start the new year on this sad topic.  After the 2019 playoff, I believe I started a topic with the suggestion that that playoff may have been the most humiliating series of losses in Twins history (after suggesting a few close seconds).  I’m sticking with it.  

[chpettit19]

2019 sticks out in my head the most, but that may be recency bias at work. It's the series I feel like the team underperformed the most in (they barely showed up).

Agree with gunnarthor that depth is the most obvious thread weaving through all the failures. I think that ties in with the FO question. Depth comes from your system and being able to replace guys with your minor leaguers. You can't pay 7 legit ML starters cuz 2 of them aren't going to agree to start in the pen or minors. You can't pay 13 position players who are "starter quality" (I'll define this as you wanting them to play 155+ games) cuz 4 of them won't agree to start on the bench. Even the big spenders build their depth through the minors. Maeda ended up getting pushed to the pen during seasons because the Dodgers had Buehler, May, Urias, etc. come up through their system, not because he wasn't starter quality or they were signing a bunch of big name free agents. The Yankees haven't won a title in forever (by their standards) because they've failed to produce minor league talent (especially pitching). Minor league development is the life blood of every organization. If you can develop you can succeed. If you can't you become the Pirates. If you can't develop, but you can spend, you become the current iteration of the Yankees.

So if this FO has fixed the development problems of the previous regime (yet to be seen, but I have faith in the pitching program at least) then they have a chance to get the Twins over the hump and get that long awaited W in the playoffs. If they can't provide a steady stream of ML caliber youngsters they may be the proverbial blind squirrel and snag a random playoff W somewhere, but the failures will continue. Any, and every, discussion about any FO comes down to whether or not they develop the right systems, hire the right coaches, and acquire the right young talent to move up through their systems and provide them with value over their contract amounts. I think this FO has 2 years (maybe only 1 if all their arms totally flop this year) to show they've modernized the organization and can now develop talent. We'll see.

[RpR]

2002 was the worst as in two of the games they not only lost but lost badly; after that they were just a joke in the play-offs.

[wsnydes]

2010 and 2019 stick out to me.  2010 because I thought they were actually the better of the two teams and actually had home field advantage.  Per usual, the Yankees owned them.  2019 for similar reasons, but because of the pitching, I had my doubts.  I've long been a believer that you can't slug your way through the playoffs, and that team is Exhibit A.

Aside from the aforementioned years, for most of the post 2002 run, I've not felt that this team was the better team heading into the series and expected a loss.  Beating up on a bad division (not their fault) is nice, but none of those teams were built to seriously contend for much more than a division title (definitely their fault).

[theBOMisthebomb]

2019 was the worst. The Twins had a record setting offense and a respectable pitching staff .. only to once again get swept by the Yankees. This defeat moved the Twins closer to the Vikings territory of, "They will never win the championship" (again for the Twins). 

What a gross topic to pile on top of the dead of winter and the lockout. 

[Trov]

For me, the 2004 season was the worst.  We had a great pitcher in Santana and had a great chance to be up 2-0 on Yankees.  I think back to that game 2 as the time I realized Gardenhire would not be a good playoff manager.  The reason I say that is he made two key decisions that turned out to be wrong, which is fine, except for when asked about them he gave very poor answers that conflicted with each other.  

Late in the game, after coming back to tie it up we had a chance to just hit a sac fly against Rivera.  Gardy started rookie Kubel in the game and he was not doing well.  He could have pinch hit for Kubel, but Gardy left him out to face Rivera with 1 out and struck out chasing pitches.  First, Gardy left a rookie lefty who was not looking good against Rivera, who had always did better against lefties than righties, but Gardy had old school though of lefties do better against righties, despite long numbers showing the reverse splits, thanks to the cutter. 

Then later in game after Nathan had gone 2 innings, Crain a rookie was warming up to pitch next inning.  We took the lead and Gardy sent Nathan out to pitch the bottom of the inning for a third inning, something he had not done all year.  Nathan quickly blew the game.  Crain had a decent 2004 season, in short sample, but just the year prior a rookie pen guy carried Angels through playoffs. 

After the game Gardy was asked about sending Nathan out for a third inning when Crain would have entered if it was tied.  Gardy said he did not want to put that pressure on a rookie.  This made no sense at all.  He left a rookie who was doing poor in the game to hit against someone who dominates lefties, and would have sent the rookie out in a tie game, but felt with a lead there was more risk of sending him out.  It all made no sense to me, and it was just the first example of terrible decisions based on no actual logic of Gardy.

This also was perfect example of why we kept failing.  Managers making bad decisions, and players not stepping up in the big moment.  We would make continued poor play and do things we would not normally do all year.  It does not help when umps blow calls like calling Joe's double in extra innings foul when falls 5 feet fair, and their only job is to make that call. 

I do think the FO and staff can get us over the hump, but it still comes down to the team executing.  Having Buck healthy in playoffs is a must as well. He makes everyone better when he is on the field and in lineup.  

[cHawk]

4 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

What a gross topic to pile on top of the dead of winter and the lockout. 

My apologies. I wanted to come up with a more interesting and different topic, rather than another discussion about the FO or Ownership or Management.

[theBOMisthebomb]

4 hours ago, cHawk said:

My apologies. I wanted to come up with a more interesting and different topic, rather than another discussion about the FO or Ownership or Management.

No worries, it's a worthy topic for discussion (though unpleasant). 

[Doctor Gast]

W/O getting too much into FO inadequacies, I'd like to focus on the recent and what could be done to resolve it. In 2019 we had a great team in the rotation and line-up, IMO what contributed most to our down fall was the breakdown of what was a pretty darn good BP.

Problem: Too much reliance on our high leverage arms, which caused a meltdown. Then way too much burden was placed on a successful but sick Gibson and converted BP arm Perez, they then crashed & burned. Berrios is strong but at post season you could see he was tired, along w/ Odorizzi and Pineda.                                                                                                        Solution: Have a large and rotating long relief corps. This removes the burden off of the high leverage arms and SPs plus gives AAAA prospect well needed experience. Last year too much confidence was placed on our failing high leverage arms (especially Colume') and weak rotation and our long relief was basically nonexistent.                                                     

Problem: Weak defense, too many GBs bled through our INF. We lost too many games when Cave subbed Buxton.                                                                                                                              Solution: Signed Donaldson and later Simmons and move Polanco to 2B. These where great moves but again we need a SS and still need to find an adequate sub for Buxton.

Now we have new problem, come up with a rotation