Scouting Twins Prospects: Josh Winder

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

If there was any solace to be found in the Minnesota Twins’ 2021 season it was due to the metamorphosis many of their starting pitching prospects underwent. Louie Varland blossomed from a 2019 15th round pick out of NCAA Division II Concordia University, St. Paul into the franchise’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year; Matt Canterino and Blayne Enlow performed exceptionally when not beset by arm injuries; and many, including Cole Sands and Joe Ryan, outperformed even their rosiest pre-season projections.

But of all the pitching prospects who prospered, it was Josh Winder emerged from his developmental chrysalis first, setting the tone for what was to come early in the season.

Winder, a right-hander whom the Twins’ selected with their 7th round pick during the 2018 draft out of the Virginia Military Institute, stands at a robust 6’5” with an athletic 210 pound frame. A quick worker on the mound, Winder possesses a smooth, repeatable motion and utilizes a three-quarter arm slot for every pitch in his arsenal. He’s a traditional four-pitch pitcher and primarily relied on his 4-seam fastball up in the zone to get ahead in the count before unleashing a bevy of sliders, curveballs, and changeups to keep batters on their toes. 

His fastball sat 94-96 mph for the majority of his season — which he split between Double- (54 2/3 innings) and Triple-A (17 1/3 innings) — before tailing off to 91-96 mph by the end of the season. (Of note: He did not appear in another game after his start on July 21 due to right shoulder impingement/fatigue.)

Winder’s slider typically sat in the mid-80s and featured a sharp downward break in the 1-to-7 o’clock direction. It played well off of his fastball, flying towards the plate in the same tunnel when his command was on.

However, it was arguably the concurrent development of his changeup and fastball that leveled up Winder from a mid-tier prospect to inside the Twins’ top 10. Winder’s average fastball velocity increased from the low-90s during his college days into the mid-90s, which caused a greater differential between the speed of his heater and off-speed stuff.

Winder, who turned 25 years old this past October, excelled at Double-A Wichita (2.84 FIP, 31.3% K rate, 4.8% BB rate, 0.82 HR/9), which resulted in a late-June promotion to Triple-A St. Paul and an appearance in the 2021 Futures Game during the All-Star break. However, after a dominant debut in which he struck out eight Omaha hitters and allowed only one run in 5 2/3 innings, Winder struggled during his final three starts, serving up four home runs, allowing eight earned runs, and striking out only seven in 11 2/3 innings.

Winder’s downtick in performance was due to both a loss of velocity across his arsenal as well as iffy command, both of which were likely the result of his shoulder injury. However, even prior to being shut down, Winder’s command was no better than average at best. Although he rarely issues free passes (i.e. he has good control, always pitching in or near the strike zone), his ability to place the ball where he wants, particularly with his curveball, requires more seasoning.

All told, Winder likely projects as a starter at the MLB-level and possesses the ceiling of a No. 3 pitcher on a playoff caliber team. As with any pitcher, however, his health, strikeout rate, and home run rate will play key roles in determining if he ever reaches his apex. There is a lot to like about Winder’s game, and while the comparison is far from perfect, it’s possible that he has a similar career to that of former Twin Scott Baker. 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
— Read more from Lucas here

View full article

[mikelink45]

Let's hope at least two of the prospects prosper this year beyond Ober and Ryan who could have the old Sophomore slump (which means that the league adjusts to them).  Winder and Balazovic are my hopes.  

[TopGunn#22]

He's a promising prospect and like any pitcher health is always paramount.  He's got a good pitch mix, and while I don't have a firm grasp of what his potential is, the comp to Scott Baker is helpful.  He would look good IN the Twins rotation or, as I posted yesterday, could be used in a trade to acquire a veteran SP.  

The Trade was Arraez and Winder to the A's for Frankie Montas.  It's a slight overpay for the Twins, but with Miranda set to replace Arraez and the chance to upgrade from Winder to Montas in the rotation I would do it.  

Some have commented that there is no way the Twins would extend Montas after the 2023 season since we didn't do it for Berrios.  Montas & Berrios are very similar pitchers.  I disagree with that logic.  I think the Twins FO saw everything unraveling last season and determined a slight rebuild was in order.  Berrios, while solid and dependable, never quite became what the Twins expected him to be.  Montas has a chance to be better than Berrios.  If, after the 2023 the Twins have a division contending ballclub, I could see an extension for Montas.  A LOT of that depends on the development of Balazovic, Duran, Canterino and others (even Petty). 

If Balazovic, Ryan, Ober, Duran and Canterino ALL hit it and are the foundation of the Twins pitching staff, then maybe Montas is traded or simply not resigned.  But if Montas blossoms and one or two of those guys don't work out,  or better yet, they all still do, you've got a bunch of affordable pitchers and could certainly afford to pay ONE to head your rotation.  Also, if Martin, Lewis and Miranda develop, if Kiriloff becomes the All Star bat and Gold Glove 1B-man, if Rortvedt and Jeffers are a solid catching duo, there is even MORE payroll flexibility.  The Twins have a LOT of young talent they are waiting on to arrive and shine with the big league club. .  If they are fortunate with that development, they could have a LOT of payroll flexibility as well.  

[beckmt]

Trade will not happen with Winder until people are sure of his health.  I am hoping that he is healthy and he starts either in St. Paul or with the Twins.  Twins have a lot of possibilities.  So if a number of them make it over the next few years, we should be fine for starters.  Like Cleveland it is a numbers game.  This is what the FO was brought in to do. Build very good teams with a budget around $130 million.  We may do better if more than 2 - 3 hit. 

[gman]

People keep on wanting to trade the teams pitching prospect without giving them a chance to develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for. Montas, for instance, has pitched in parts of 6 major league seasons and started in the minors in 2010. His arm has over a 1000 innings of professional ball on it. Winder has pitched 236 innings in professional ball. I'd much prefer to keep Winder and let him develop. Maybe someday some other team will trade to trade several of their top prospects for him.

[bean5302]

I think the ceiling on Winder is higher than mid rotation. I think the midpoint is #3 and I think the floor is #4-5 at this point, barring injuries. I'm more optimistic about Winder than any of our other pitching prospects.

Winder has a 4 pitch mix. Personally, I believe a 4+ pitch mix is virtually required for upper rotation arms. Beyond the 4 pitches, though, he has multiple plus offerings (fastball and slider) with a borderline plus changeup and a decent curveball. When you see a 4 pitch mix with a couple plus offerings and another good offering, that's a recipe for success.

Winder was absolutely dominant at AA last year. He didn't give up hits or allow walks. He also struck out 10.7 per 9 innings while also efficiently eating innings with less than 15 pitches per inning. At 100 pitches, Winder would average 7 innings per start.

Even though Winder stumbled a bit in AAA, his swinging strike rate, walk rate and efficiency were all solid. The only warning flag for me was the shutdown over the shoulder. Winder talked about his shutdown being purely precautionary, but it does feel like there may have been a bit more to it.

[RJA]

I have not seen Winder pitch in a minor league game as he had left Wichita for St. Paul before I got there.  I would be interested in hearing from fans who saw him pitch last year as to their take on his potential and his stuff.  

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, gman said:

People keep on wanting to trade the teams pitching prospect without giving them a chance to develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for. Montas, for instance, has pitched in parts of 6 major league seasons and started in the minors in 2010. His arm has over a 1000 innings of professional ball on it. Winder has pitched 236 innings in professional ball. I'd much prefer to keep Winder and let him develop. Maybe someday some other team will trade to trade several of their top prospects for him.

I think you inadvertantly made an argument to trade for Montas. He has experience, finished his struggles, and has arrived as a pitcher. Why would you develop a pitcher like Winder to then trade him for top prospects who then need time to develop in turn. 

Whatever one believes, the Twins need experienced pitching and I don't care how they get it. Without pitching, the team will struggle. If every hitter had career years they still could never match the 1977 Twins and without pitching the fight is all uphill.

[roger]

Watched a lot of Winder's games at Wichita on MiLB tv last summer.  The pitcher I saw was as good or better than any of the other Twins high prospect.  Yes, Balazovic had that five game run where he was nearly perfect, but over the course of the summer Winder was the better of the two at Wichita.  

Loved seeing this piece.  My only comment would be that like a few above, I see him developing into a better pitcher than a #3.  To be honest, I cringe when I see anyone telling us the ceiling of any player as those results are up to the player becoming the best he can be, or not.

[Kipp35]

The Twins should pray that he becomes the caliber of player as his comparison, Scott Baker. Baker was a solid pitcher for a team that needed it, never dominate, but solid.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, roger said:

Watched a lot of Winder's games at Wichita on MiLB tv last summer.  The pitcher I saw was as good or better than any of the other Twins high prospect.  Yes, Balazovic had that five game run where he was nearly perfect, but over the course of the summer Winder was the better of the two at Wichita.  

Loved seeing this piece.  My only comment would be that like a few above, I see him developing into a better pitcher than a #3.  To be honest, I cringe when I see anyone telling us the ceiling of any player as those results are up to the player becoming the best he can be, or not.

I go the Milb package specifically to watch our top prospects.. Quite often I only watched the pitching side of the inning and I too watched most of Winder's games.  He was quite dominant.  There is a good chance he is the next man up and maybe even out of spring training if he looks good.   

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, gman said:

People keep on wanting to trade the teams pitching prospect without giving them a chance to develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for. 

That's probably because pitching prospects actually develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for about 25% of the time.

Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review

[gman]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I think you inadvertantly made an argument to trade for Montas. He has experience, finished his struggles, and has arrived as a pitcher. Why would you develop a pitcher like Winder to then trade him for top prospects who then need time to develop in turn. 

Whatever one believes, the Twins need experienced pitching and I don't care how they get it. Without pitching, the team will struggle. If every hitter had career years they still could never match the 1977 Twins and without pitching the fight is all uphill.

No, I don't think I made an argument to trade Winder. You can of course try to interpret things to fit your personal argument.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 1/1/2022 at 10:06 AM, gman said:

People keep on wanting to trade the teams pitching prospect without giving them a chance to develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for.

Meyer, May, Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe, Melotakis, Slegers, Meija, all Twins prospects and besides May what have the Twins gotten for them?

Couldn't trade Romero, Gonsalves or Thorpe in the late teens, because they were going to be the next set of twins starters, This is why people are OK with trading some pitching prospects.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, gman said:

No, I don't think I made an argument to trade Winder. You can of course try to interpret things to fit your personal argument.

No personal argument and no offense intended. It seemed like your mention of Montas as having developed/ being ready to produce and then mentioned developing Winder and reaping a reward of top prospects when he reaches the status of Montas. FWIW, I am very high on Winder.

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Meyer, May, Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe, Melotakis, Slegers, Meija, all Twins prospects and besides May what have the Twins gotten for them?

Couldn't trade Romero, Gonsalves or Thorpe in the late teens, because they were going to be the next set of twins starters, This is why people are OK with trading some pitching prospects.

Correct, This is one reason. The Twins do not have a single pitcher rated among the top 50 prospects. Pitching prospects fail at a very high rate, 70-80%. I still advocate for only trading two or three pitching prospects. The Twins need a minimum of two experienced pitchers to lead their youngsters and the staff.

More importantly, the window for the lineup is pretty much now and waiting 3-5 years for the pitching prospects to develop leaves the team without Garver, Sano, Polanco, Donaldson, and Kepler. While some of these are replaceable, the loss of all of them would be a hit to the lineup. I'm ok with some trades because the team needs to be balanced in order to compete.

[beckmt]

Problem is at this time the FO unlike the Rays, does not trade the correct pitching prospects.  so it is better to keep all of them.  And hope 25 - 33% of them work out.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Meyer, May, Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Thorpe, Melotakis, Slegers, Meija, all Twins prospects and besides May what have the Twins gotten for them?

Couldn't trade Romero, Gonsalves or Thorpe in the late teens, because they were going to be the next set of twins starters, This is why people are OK with trading some pitching prospects.

The opposite side of that is the Twins did trade Gil and Ynoa and are absolutely crushed for it on these boards daily.

The difference now is the Twins have a 21st century development program now. It all comes down to being able to develop their own arms. Previous regime and their system couldn't do it. If this regime can't do it either none of it matters as they couldn't sustain success trading for guys with 1 or 2 years of control and then having to pay everyone. I think we're at the point where we just need to see if their new development plans work. Only way to do that is keep their prospects, especially their best ones, and see if they're any good.

[Dantes929]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The opposite side of that is the Twins did trade Gil and Ynoa and are absolutely crushed for it on these boards daily.

The difference now is the Twins have a 21st century development program now. It all comes down to being able to develop their own arms. Previous regime and their system couldn't do it. If this regime can't do it either none of it matters as they couldn't sustain success trading for guys with 1 or 2 years of control and then having to pay everyone. I think we're at the point where we just need to see if their new development plans work. Only way to do that is keep their prospects, especially their best ones, and see if they're any good.

Another part of that opposite side is that while way less than half of all prospects turn into good MLB pitchers, 100% of all good MLB pitchers were prospects at one point.    1991 had one kind of proven starter in Tapani, a good but unproven prospect in Erickson, a couple half way decent vets in Anderson and West and a guy who could clearly have been labeled a possibly washed up veteran in Morris.    I'm not saying the young guys are going to come through but its baseball.  Who knows.     I keep tabs on the minor leaguers because I want to see the development and then see how they do for the TWINS rather than see how they do as trade bait.

[bean5302]

Career numbers in AA

• 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.90 K:BB (Alex Meyer)
• 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB (Trevor May)
• 4.22 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.03 K:BB (Tyler Jay)
• 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB (Kohl Stewart)
• 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 10.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB (Stephen Gonsavles)
• 3.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Fernando Romero)
• 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Felix Jorge)
• 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.21 K:BB (Aaron Slegers)
• 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB (Adalberto Mejia)
• 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.31 K:BB (Lewis Thorpe)
• 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.50 K:BB (Josh Winder)

Perhaps that illustrates just a little bit better as to why Josh Winder might be worth keeping. The closest competitor to Winder is Stephen Gonsalves, who was throwing 90mph in his first stint in MLB and had a single borderline plus pitch and 2 other average MLB offerings. Winder has 4 MLB pitches and 2 plus pitches with a 3rd borderline plus pitch. The two are not remotely comparable.

When you have a pitcher who is absolutely dominant at AA, that's uncommon. When you have a guy who is dominant in the high minors and they have the stuff to back up the performance, that's something rare and important to keep an eye on.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Career numbers in AA

I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?

 

[DJL44]

The hardest part for the Twins is the 40 man roster is full of prospects who aren't ready yet. None of Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Sands, Strotman, Vallimont and Winder are expected to help early in the season. That's 1/3 of the pitchers on the roster. Maeda is out for the season. That means they're choosing a pitching staff of 13 from the remaining 14 pitchers. Out of those 14 pitchers Ober, Ryan, Moran and Garza have very limited MLB innings.

Bundy, Dobnak, Jax, Stashak and Thorpe were a combination of injured and terrible last season. Right now 4 of those 5 pitchers are locks and the 5th one is the first call-up from AAA.

This is why the moves to add Bundy and Cotton are so bizarre. Why keep adding question marks to a pitching staff that is almost all question marks?

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?

 

He only had 4 games at AAA.  They moved him up and his velocity and command dropped off right after being promoted so his AAA numbers are not very meaningful.

[TwinsDr2021]

36 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

He only had 4 games at AAA.  They moved him up and his velocity and command dropped off right after being promoted so his AAA numbers are not very meaningful.

So we are going to throw out those 4 games, velocity and command drop, not worry about it and say he is can't miss? Again I like Winder and think he will be a solid major league pitcher, but isn't using 54 innings over two year considered SSS?

The guy is 25 and has no success above AA when history shows the majority of good pitchers have at least had some success or time in the majors by age 25. With that being said I hope he pitches to the most of his limited innings at the major league level this year with a bunch of success.

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So we are going to throw out those 4 games, velocity and command drop, not worry about it and say he is can't miss? Again I like Winder and think he will be a solid major league pitcher, but isn't using 54 innings over two year considered SSS?

The guy is 25 and has no success above AA when history shows the majority of good pitchers have at least had some success or time in the majors by age 25. With that being said I hope he pitches to the most of his limited innings at the major league level this year with a bunch of success.

 

You are making wild assumptions.   You said .... "I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?"  

My statement was pretty clear.  It makes no sense to look at 17 IP at AAA when he was hurt.   Turning this into not worrying about his limited IP at AA or suggesting I am making him out to be a "can't miss" is awfully dramatic.   

My guess is none of the prospects w/o ML experience are starting the season with the team.  The 1st 6-8 weeks of the Milb season is going to be an audition to determine who comes up first.  However, it's possible one of these prospects looks great in spring training and goes north with the team.  It's not like they can't send him down in 6 weeks and give someone else a shot.

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?

 

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast.

The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

[TwinsDr2021]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast.

The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

Gonsalves put up pretty much identical numbers at AA when he was 21, if you take out the last 4 starts for Romero in 2017 when he apparently dealing with something, his numbers at AA where not that different and he was 22. Mejia's numbers at AA in 2015 at 22 weren't all that far off (less K's), at age 23 Meyer was pitching pretty well at AA,

The rest were mostly just names, high draft picks, etc.. but also pitchers that were supposed to be part of a Twins future. I also can agree Winder will probably end up a better major league pitchers than the rest of them, my initial point was those 54 innings were just that - 54 innings at AA when you are 24.

I hope he steps it up in spring training is really good for the 100-120 innings he will pitch this year and be a spring board to a successful major league career and isn't just another name the fans were dreaming would be part of a twins future rotation.