Reboundin' Randy

[Cody Pirkl]

It was a nightmare 2021 for Randy Dobnak. A massive opportunity was missed due to injury and general struggles. Even after a disappointing season, a massive opportunity awaits Dobnak on a pitching-needy 2022 Twins roster.

The Twins offseason did not leave a great taste in the mouths of the fanbase before the CBA lockout commenced. The only addition to a rotation in need of at least three more reliable options was rebound-candidate Dylan Bundy with few high-end free agent options left. 

As a result, it sounds like the Twins could lean heavily on internal options. Much attention is rightfully drawn to the shiny prospects we haven’t seen yet, but people seem to be forgetting about Randy Dobnak.

Dobnak’s popularity comes from more than his entertaining story and killer ‘stache. He was leaned on heavily down the stretch in 2019 en route to a surprising division title. He posted a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings as a whole and got off to a similar start in 2020. After a miserable 2021 where his ERA neared 8, however, why is Dobnak first in line for an opportunity?

For starters, his 2021 needs to be taken with a grain of salt. His grip on the slider was reportedly changed before the season, and it just never really took. His expected batting average on the pitch rose from .204 to .356. Before he could attempt to make the necessary adjustments, he injured his right middle finger, a pivotal body part in executing a pitch.

Baseball being a game of adjustments, it’s safe to assume Dobnak will spend this offseason trying to figure out what went wrong. He’ll surely continue to tweak his signature whiff pitch and could always pivot back to his previous grip on the slider if all else fails. 

Health is also a factor, as it’s easy to see how a new slider could end up finding inopportune parts of the strike zone more often when the finger used to guide it is in pain. The Twins shut Dobnak down rather than having him continue to fight through it, so the hope is that the extra time he was given has him fully healthy and ready to compete pain-free in 2022.

Dobnak has also already earned the trust of the organization, and for good reason. He was thrust into a Game 2 playoff start in Yankee Stadium during his rookie season. Despite the results, paired with how much he helped the Twins rotation in 2019 and 2020 far outweighs his struggles during a 2021 season where it seemed like nobody lived up to expectation. The approximate $9m invested into the contract that will keep Dobnak in Minnesota through 2026 isn’t incredibly high, but the Twins surely won’t call that a sunk cost just yet.

The fact of the matter is Dobnak is probably somewhere in between the sub 2.00 ERA pitcher we saw when he debuted and the one that posted a near 8.00 ERA in 2021. He won’t be the savior that shores up the front of the rotation, but profiling him behind Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan isn’t absurd. He’s a groundball artist who limits home runs and walks which is more than enough for a pitcher to settle into a solid career on a good baseball team.

The pitching pipeline does grow ever closer to the Major Leagues with pitchers like Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder finally having reached AAA. It appears there will almost certainly be rotation spots to contend for during Spring Training, however, and Randy Dobnak would be my odds on favorite to get some run early in the year. It’s easy to forget after a miserable 2021, but if handed a rotation spot, there’s a chance Randy Dobnak simply doesn’t give it back.

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[mikelink45]

Dobnak is a wonderful story, but nothing guarantees that a story can continue to be wonderful.  Sometimes reality comes in to play.  I love the Dobnak story and I hope I am wrong, but I think he grabbed the golden ring and now time has moved on and Randy will become part of Twins' lore, but not the future.  Sorry.  I will accept the wet blanket award. 

[Doctor Gast]

With a great infield behind him last season, they shouldn't have change that drastic his pitch mix. His new slider should've been a work in progress not thrown so regularly. That new slider must be hard your finger because Wisler who majors on that pitch, also had a finger problem. 

I'm sure he has been working on that pitch through out the off season. If we get a below average SS he'll have to depend on that pitch much more than last season. If he has lost confidence on that pitch or if can't perfect that pitch we're in trouble. Then I hope we  trade him to a team w/ a good infield and know how to use him for his sake.

If Bundy is our best pitching addition we are  heading towards the same path as last year.

[beckmt]

We can all hope he returns, but it would not surprise me that the league adjusted and his stuff does not play well enough to continue on.  

[HrbieFan]

Even if Dobnak can become an effective long innings guy out of the pen, it will be a win. If we roll with a bunch of young SPs next year, we are going to need a guy that can go multiple innings a few days a week. 

[Minny505]

If you consider Bailey Ober part of the youth movement in our pitching staff, then you really should consider Dobnak the same as he is only 6 months older.

Let's not forget that, at close to the same age as Ober, Dobnak was holding his own thru his first two seasons of of 18 starts while Ober barely got himself past High A. The peripherals thru those first 2 seasons of 18 starts were similar, if not better, than those of Ober during his first MLB season, while being younger.

I will not let recency bias with a young MLB pitcher who has had two split seasons of success, where hitters had an offseason to adjust and still struggled, dictate my view of Dobnak's future. It can inform, but not dictate.

[dgdynasty]

My prediction for our starting five: Ryan, Ober, rebounding FA, Bundy, Dobnak. If we score a touchdown worth of runs each game, we might win half of them.

[AceWrigley]

Dobnak seems like a battler. I don't know if he will become an effective pitcher, but I'm pulling for him. Does anybody know if his new grip was responsible for his finger injury?

[Trov]

I keep reading comments about how if Twins do not go out and sign big FA starter we will be terrible going with, unproven pitchers.  I am not saying we should expect much from them, but in 2019 Cleveland leaned heavy on 3 unproven pitchers.  Entering the season two of their top pitchers, Kluber and Carrasco preformed poorly overall and health limited them.  This required they had to go to backup options their less experienced guys.  Beiber, Pleasak, Civale all stepped up, each were all 24 and only Beiber had any MLB experience.  Bauer and Clevenger helped carry the main load, until Bauer was traded mid-season. 

The commenters keep saying without proven starters no way will Twins compete, and maybe that will hold true, but Cleveland showed they did not need a full slate of established vets to win.  Players need to get a chance at some point.  Sure, it is not a perfect comparison because Clevenger had great year, and Bauer was decent so they were leaning on the guys to be back of rotation parts for half the year.  The point I am making is to say no way can you trust young guys to come in and perform is not always the case.