The Twins Need to Spend…On This Bat?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have 38 players on their 40 man roster, and the most glaring hole is in the starting rotation. They’re missing at least two pieces and have $40 million or so to spend. So let’s go crazy. They need to spend…on a bat.

If you’ve been reading Twins Daily lately, I hope you haven’t missed Nick Nelson's piece on the front office avoiding free-agent starters. Derek Falvey has largely missed on the names he’s targeted, and he’s sat out on most of them. Length has been this club’s sticking point, and as Nick points out, it’s also been the track record of this front office. Cleveland sustained winning through pitching. The arms were developed internally, inexpensively, and near-peak of their projections.
 
Given the success Falvey has seen using this blueprint and operating with the same parameters that Minnesota is not a sought-after destination, it’s understandable for him to get creative. That leaves opportunity on the trade market, like sending a high-end reliever in Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers for an established arm like Kenta Maeda. I believe at least one trade will bring in a top-of-the-rotation starter, but dollars still need to be allocated.
 
How about looking at this route. Come on down, Kris Bryant.

Going into 2021, I had made a couple of points to suggest dealing for the former Cubs third basemen made a lot of sense. He can play left field and first base and had just a year left on his deal while fully intending to hit free agency. Minnesota declined, and the San Francisco Giants utilized him for their stretch run. Now a free agent, Bryant is a better fit for the Twins than you imagine.
 
Even with the Cubs manipulation of the Vegas natives’ service time, Bryant will play 2022 at just 30 years old. His “injuries” have been largely overstated in that he’s missed significant time in just two of his seven big league seasons. When healthy, he’s been among the best in the sport. Coming off a 2021 in which he posted an .835 OPS with 25 homers, Bryant flashed his versatility played every position except for second base and catcher. He’s best suited on the corners, either in the infield or outfield, and that’s where the fit lies with the Twins.
 
Josh Donaldson was mostly fine last season, posting an .827 OPS. He played in 135 games but was immediately on the Injured List with a leg issue to start the season. Donaldson needed significant time in the designated hitter spot to be eased back in, and he’s now another year older. Luis Arraez plays second base for Minnesota, but not well, and has bulky knees. Jose Miranda has forced his way into time, but that could come anywhere. What version of Miguel Sano shows up in his final contract year remains to be seen. Alex Kirilloff figures to play more first base than anything, and Trevor Larnach’s rebound is uncertain. Maybe the most significant linchpin here is if and when Max Kepler is moved.
 
That’s a ton of moving pieces, but just one (with Kepler being the most likely), needs to be moved for a perfect set of musical chairs. Spending on bats seems to be much more fruitful on the free-agent market, and giving Bryant a three-to-five-year deal may be enough to have him call Twins Territory home. This lineup should already do plenty of damage when on, and adding Bryant to it only helps to supplement a pitching staff that would leave plenty to be desired. Spending dollars on his bat gets easier as the top of the Twins farm assumes rotation spots, and his versatility doesn’t hamstring any single player.
 
With the Giants interested in retaining his services, the Seattle Mariners lurking, and Scott Boras angling for the biggest deal, there’s plenty of reasons this won’t happen before even considering the Twins. That all being said, the fit is there, and spending needs to happen regardless. Rather than continuing to do nothing with the funds freed up in trading Jose Berrios, it certainly makes sense to grab a player of impact instead of spreading them out between roster filler.
 
Kris Bryant doesn’t pitch, and he isn’t a shortstop, but somehow this still seems to work.

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[Unwinder]

I do kind of think that with the pitching FA market mostly dried up, and little chance of signing a high-end shortstop, the Twins are likely to go for an out-of-nowhere Josh Donaldson style signing that upgrades the offense without filling any particular hole in the team. I would not be surprised at all if this happens.

[mikelink45]

I believe the Love Spoonful covered this in a song called Day dreaming 

[Greglw3]

I think this is an excellent idea. The offense needs to be stronger on its face plus the suspect pitching factor. I’d be happy with Bryant in LF Buxton in CF (with a newly signed Billy Hamilton as the Buxton insurance policy) and Kirilloff in RF. I would move Kepler.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

With the FA market dried up, I guess this is an alternative. Bring in a FA non-pitcher and then trade an existing player like Kepler or Arraez to acquire a pitcher without giving up prospects with several cheaper years remaining.  My only concern is whether the Twins would pony up to retain a traded-for pitcher when they did not do that with Barrieos.

[Old fox]

I feel the Twins are in a good position to make a multiple player trade with the “A’s” including prospects & established players. Such a trade would address pitching, relief pitching & improve 3b. This trade affecting co- internal Twins positions. The Twins trade; Arraez, Larnach, Dubnak, Cavaco, Vallimont  to the “A’s” for Bassitt, Manaea, Chapman, Kaprailain rrp, either Pisscoty or Andrus. Twins internal position changes; Kirilloff to Lf, Donaldson to 1b, san’o to dh. This trade according to “mlb trade values” would be near equal value for both teams.
 

[Doctor Gast]

I really like Bryant but corner fielder isn't a hole, we have a ton of depth there. And those positions are easy to fill. So we need to focus on our big holes SP, SS, CF sub and even a closer would be nice. Everything else is gravy. Bryant won't be cheap I see many teams who'd be much more desperate for Bryant's services than we are and who'd bid much higher than us.

[wsnydes]

I'd absolutely love to bring Bryant in.  He's better than any of the depth they have anywhere aside from maybe 3B.  He's a guy I'd find a place for.

But it's all a pipe dream, so there's also that.

[Dman]

I like Bryant I really do but we have Donaldson and then there is Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach and possibly Miranda to find room for let alone Arraez once in a while for left field.  You have Sano and Garver to DH along with Donaldson.  It doesn't feel like a match made in heaven to me.  He will probably get a 7 to 8 year deal for big time money and he has been injured and is only getting older.  

It just doesn't feel like a good use of money to me.  I would rather they spend on pitching than another corner guy.  I just don't see the Twins doing something like this.

[chpettit19]

I wouldn't be mad about a Bryant signing. I think he'd be a very good piece. Would much prefer to spend on Story, though. Bryant in LF and 3B would be very useful for the Twins, but I think for less money they can get Story to fill a bigger need at SS. I would not be totally surprised if a move like this is made after the lockout ends. Much like the Donaldson deal. There's no arms left to spend on and I wouldn't be shocked if they added a bat. Would be nice actually.

[Prince William]

7/200 and hope he he can be productive in his end of contract years. The baseball reference gives him a similarity score through age 29 as he is similar to Larry Walker. That would be good. They say he is more closer to Richard Hidalgo. That would be a disaster for Bryant to go down that path

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

7 hours ago, Old fox said:

I feel the Twins are in a good position to make a multiple player trade with the “A’s” including prospects & established players. Such a trade would address pitching, relief pitching & improve 3b. This trade affecting co- internal Twins positions. The Twins trade; Arraez, Larnach, Dubnak, Cavaco, Vallimont  to the “A’s” for Bassitt, Manaea, Chapman, Kaprailain rrp, either Pisscoty or Andrus. Twins internal position changes; Kirilloff to Lf, Donaldson to 1b, san’o to dh. This trade according to “mlb trade values” would be near equal value for both teams.
 

I like the idea of a trade with the A's for pitching quite a bit, but there have been some trade ideas floated with the A's sending two starting pitchers in the same deal, and I'm skeptical of whether that's realistic. This takes that a step farther with Oakland sending THREE starters away in a single trade.

Reasons for skepticism IMHO:
- The possibility that Oakland will sell off some players this winter to reduce payroll is persistent enough that there's probably something to it, but some early rumors included a target number for a pretty radical payroll reduction that I don't think was ever substantiated. So our expectations for an A's sell-off may be exaggerated; trading some guys won't necessarily mean tearing down their roster.
- If they're going to trade several valuable players, moving them in separate deals would increase the talent pool and choices they have regarding the players who come back in the trades, and could increase the value they get back overall.

It's hard for me to see why Oakland would do that deal, especially when it sends away Kaprielian, who could be an in-house replacement if and when they did trade other pitchers (the ones closer to free agency.)

It's also not clear to me that the Twins would prioritize acquiring a new third baseman, even though Chapman is a really good one—Donaldson's 3B defense isn't really an issue right now and there's a reasonable chance that Miranda or Lewis ends up playing there...

[rv78]

I'd like Bryant in the lineup over a Sano, Kepler, or Cave but with Miranda on the doorstep having another 3B/LF guy isn't where the priority signing should be. As long as Donaldson, Arraez, Kepler remain on the team a move like this won't happen.

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with whosafraid...I've tinkered with trades on Baseball Trade Values, especially with Oakland and Miami.  It's a great site and Old Fox has a trade that "works" numerically---value for value.  But it's kind of like Mock-Drafting for the Vikings.  A fun exercise that has just a "pinch" of reality with a healthy dose of HOPE.  It would be great to make that trade, but who knows.  I certainly think trades are the only avenue left to improve the starting rotation.

As for Bryant, I've also considered what he would add to the team and what (with Boras as his agent) his cost would be.  He would certainly help and versatility is never a bad thing.  However, I agree with Dr. Gast and others that if I'm going to spend big on a non-pitcher, that guy would be Trevor Story.  Story fills a GAPING HOLE at SS and would also be an excellent addition to the lineup.  I wasn't disappointed when the Twins signed Donaldson and I wouldn't be if they signed Bryant.  I just think that SS makes too much sense when we already have plenty of corner OF and IF options. 

I've also been leaning toward the idea of keeping Kepler and Sano as their current values (Sano is a negative) are such that they are better to KEEP than to trade.  But it always depends on what you get back in the trade.   One trade the Twins could do with Oakland for SP'ing could involve us taking Elvis Andrus back.  He's a negative 4.2 value and could play SS in 2022 with Lewis or Palacios moving up in 2023.  His team option becomes a player option for 2023 if he reaches 550 AB's in 2022.  If I were to get him in a trade to acquire pitching, I'd make sure he didn't get to 550 AB's.  Otherwise, he's got a player option for $14 million in 2023.  Andrus is adequate defensively (he's no Simmons) and is certainly better offensively than Simmons (I would bat him 9th).  I think to entice Oakland to give up Montas AND Bassitt, you'd need to include Arraez, Larnach, a young SP like Winder or Strotman AND take Andrus off their hands.  And even though the Twins got a very nice return for Berrios, if they traded for Montas they'd HAVE to extend him as the Ace of the staff, and if they were competitive and Bassitt had a worthy season in 2022 look to extend him as well.  What's the point of carrying all these young, affordable players if you aren't willing to spend your money wisely for proven pitching?    

[TopGunn#22]

Oh, yeah.  one other note.  Nick, Luis Arraez has "balky" knees (not "bulky").     

[Major League Ready]

The only place I would be less inclined to spend that kind of money is 1B.  

[Karbo]

15 hours ago, Old fox said:

I feel the Twins are in a good position to make a multiple player trade with the “A’s” including prospects & established players. Such a trade would address pitching, relief pitching & improve 3b. This trade affecting co- internal Twins positions. The Twins trade; Arraez, Larnach, Dubnak, Cavaco, Vallimont  to the “A’s” for Bassitt, Manaea, Chapman, Kaprailain rrp, either Pisscoty or Andrus. Twins internal position changes; Kirilloff to Lf, Donaldson to 1b, san’o to dh. This trade according to “mlb trade values” would be near equal value for both teams.
 

Although I would love to see a trade like this happen, it probably is just toobig with too many moving pieces. Also it probably makes too much sense.

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Oh, yeah.  one other note.  Nick, Luis Arraez has "balky" knees (not "bulky").     

As legend has it, when Arraez’s Knees are at the peak of balkiness, they also become bulky with swelling.

 

 

 

[Greglw3]

Just now, Greglw3 said:

As legend has it, when Arraez’s Knees are at the peak of balkiness, they also become bulky with swelling.

 

 

 

I have to disagree with the premise that the Twins don’t have holes in the corner outfield slots. LF was a disaster with Larnach and Cave taking up a lot of at bats.

Kepler in right is stuck in a rut in thinking nothing but pull, which he usually does to the 2B in short right field often. In my 50+ years of following baseball, all with the Twins, I’ve never known a hitter with a .211 BA who was an asset. A team of .211 hitters will lose 100+ games unless they have the Jim Palmer/Mike Cuellar/Dave McNally/Pat Dobson all 20 game winners staff. Roy Smalley called Kepler out multiple times on the broadcasts about his losing pull, pull, pull approach even mentioning the word stubborn, which I agree with. Kepler’s averages of .235 ..243 .224 .252 .228 .211 do not indicate the kind of player that is a winning player. I would trade him, if possible.

The ideal OF would be Castellanos or Bryant, Buxton and Kirilloff with Sano at 1B. Iglesias .271 average and defense at SS and Miranda getting 500 AB at 3B, 2B, LF, 1B, DH. 

If Mark Contreras is still around, I like him as a 4th OF as he’s got speed and power and can play cf.

I’d also take a shot at Billy Hamilton as a 5th OF/ Byron Buxton Insurance policy due to his dominating defense and stolen base speed, which could be used late in games for a possible winning play.

 

[Finlander]

Agreed with Greglw3, a revolving door in LF is not a good solution. I wouldn't count on our corner "depth" either, as quite often prospects are actually suspects. Much of that depth, besides aging rookie Rooker, are LH hitters. So I do like the idea of Bryant as a primary and proven LF for us, with the versatility to spell players at other positions. As the article notes, he has been more durable than people realize, so his "injury-prone" rep is not very accurate. His floor and ceiling both seem to be much higher than anything else we could throw out there internally.

It's hard to believe that at this time last year we were considered the team to beat in the division, with Chicago expected to contend with us. We end the season with a SP rotation of names we hadn't really heard of. And our former LF becomes the World Series MVP. What a year.

[Doctor Gast]

On 12/22/2021 at 5:33 PM, Greglw3 said:

I think this is an excellent idea. The offense needs to be stronger on its face plus the suspect pitching factor. I’d be happy with Bryant in LF Buxton in CF (with a newly signed Billy Hamilton as the Buxton insurance policy) and Kirilloff in RF. I would move Kepler.

I like the Billy Hamilton idea, even if hitting leaves something to be desired. I really love his speed & glove

[Greglw3]

On 12/25/2021 at 5:44 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I like the Billy Hamilton idea, even if hitting leaves something to be desired. I really love his speed & glove

It's actually kind of exciting. I learned something new when Buxton was hitting about .160 a few years back but in my mind he was a big net plus because of his off the charts defense!