5 Takeaways from the Minnesota Twins' 2022 ZiPS Projections

[Matthew Taylor]

Fangraphs released their annual ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday morning, one of the most widely-respected computer projection systems in baseball. Here are five takeaways from their projections of the Twins in 2022.

ZiPS is a computer projection system that was created by senior writer at Fangraphs, Dan Szymborski in the early 2000s. ZiPS uses a mixture of past performance, similar player comparisons as well as aging curve to project out how a player will perform that next season. Important to note, ZiPS does not project playing time for each individual player, but rather gives numbers for what a player's statistics would be if they were named the starter on the team.

1. Miranda Mania Coming?
2022 ZiPS Projection: .272/.316/.432
No. 1 Player Comp: Mike Lowell

Jose Miranda had one of the best Minor League seasons in Minnesota Twins history in 2021 and the hype for his 2022 season is starting to pick up. While it’s no sure thing that Jose Miranda will start the season with the Twins, these ZiPS projections seem to think that he could hold his own in the Big Leagues. Szymborski’s projections have Miranda projected with an OPS+ of 103, which would have been the 6th best OPS+ on the 2021 Twins. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t even a top-10 prospect heading into last season.

Miranda’s number one player comp will definitely draw some looks as well, Mike Lowell. Lowell was a four-time all-star and also won a gold glove during his time with the Marlins and Red Sox.

2. Keep an Eye on Kerrigan
2022 ZiPS Projection: .221/.272/.373, 14 DRS

A prospect name that hasn’t been included in many Twins conversations over the past year has been outfielder prospect, Jimmy Kerrigan. In Szymborski’s 2022 projections, Kerrigan was pegged with a defensive projection of 14 defensive runs saved. In the 2021 season just four players in all of baseball accumulated at least 14 defensive runs saved.

Kerrigan’s glove is real, but the X-Factor in Kerrigan’s development as a prospect will be his bat. ZiPS only pegs Kerrigan as a .645 OPS batter, however that is a number higher than Willians Astudillo, Jake Cave and Andrelton Simmons produced in 2021. In 398 plate appearances with the St. Paul Saints in 2021, Kerrigan posted a .814 OPS with 19 home runs.

3. Projections Don’t Love Royce Lewis
2022 ZiPS Projection: .227/.270/.342
No. 1 Player Comp: Jhonny Perez

While the ZiPS projections are excited about the potential of Jose Miranda and Jimmy Kerrigan, they are equally down on the potential of Royce Lewis in 2022. Szymborski’s system has Lewis pegged for a lowly .612 OPS and a negative defensive contribution. Royce Lewis is in for a pivotal season in 2022, as he has not truly played baseball since 2019 and hasn’t played well since 2018.

4. The Computers Are Just As Pessimistic about the Twins’ Starting Rotation as You Are

Much has been said and written about the Minnesota Twins lack of action on the free agent starting pitching market this offseason. The front office’s lack of activity has left the Twins with a starting rotation featuring Randy Dobnak, Dylan Bundy, and a host of rookies. As a result, the projections for the Twins’s starting rotation are quite poor. While ZiPS is fairly optimistic on both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober (4.11 and 4.22 ERAs, respectively), not a single pitcher in the Twins’ rotation is projected to eclipse 2.1 WAR in 2022. By comparison, the 2019 Twins had four different pitchers produce an fWAR above 2.1.

5. Fangraphs Doesn’t Think Jorge Polanco’s 2021 Season Was a Fluke

The MVP of the 2021 Minnesota Twins unquestionably was Jorge Polanco. In a season where almost nothing went right, Polanco completely dominated the season and put up the best numbers in his career. While it’s natural to think that Polanco might regress in 2022, the ZiPS projections think that Polanco will actually improve at the plate next season. These projections peg Polanco for pacing the Twins in fWAR and posting the second best OPS on the team after Byron Buxton.

What stands out to you from these ZiPS projections. What player projections are the most promising and worrying? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

After reading this article and the ZiPS projections, I am really depressed.  At least beginning today, the days are getting longer.

[tony&rodney]

Steamer, ZIPS, etc. all say the same thing - the Twins have bats and need pitching. When you look at at national baseball sites such as The Athletic, there is a real degree of confusion to why the Twins  stood around in November and a near unanimous expectation that the team will add significant starting pitchers through trades. ZIPS says the same.

[RJA]

Thanks for the article, Matt.  ZIPS does confirm a lot of what we already know, and unfortunately a lot of it is not good.  Miranda might be a real find, but we need more than one year to verify that.  Still, we can be hopeful.  tony&rodney is right, Gleeman and Bonnes, and Hayes, are stunned that the Twins made no effort to sign a free agent pitcher.  So am I.  Maybe the plan is to try to trade Arraez and Kepler, or some prospects, for an arm, but those available are only 1 or 2 years away from free agency and we know the Twins won't likely extend them.  A free agent would have been locked up for 3-5 years.  Maybe they think Martin can replace Arraez as he has some of the same traits and is much better defensively.  Still, looks like it could be a long season.  I hope I am wrong.

[mikelink45]

Thank you - I am always interested in the national perspectives. This is the ending quote from fangraphs, "As currently constructed, the Twins look a lot like a .500 team, but a disjointed, disappointing .500 team, one that has a wild card-worthy offense that the front office is pairing with a pitching staff that it seems little interested in upgrading. That’s a team that certainly has a chance in the AL Central if enough coin flips come up right, but I think the White Sox are significantly better, and the Tigers will be soon." 

Kepler's comp is Randy Bush.  Randy was a fine bench player, not a starter.

One last finding - comps for our new pitchers 

Cotton - Marino Salas (who?)

Bundy - Claudio Vargas

Megill - Trevor Ball

 

 

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Ball

"Never lost"

[bean5302]

Well, the Twins had 1 pitcher eclipse 1.9 fWAR in 2021, and they're no longer on the team. Steamer shows Ober and Ryan as serviceable back end rotation arms, which, to be honest, is pretty darn good considering they're both making league minimum. Zips seems as bullish on the pitchers performance level, but less on the innings.

A good team would normally be expected to get 20+ WAR from their position players and 20+ WAR from their pitching staff. The Twins weren't too far off in the hitting category, but their pitching was miserable. An embarrassing 8.2 fWAR from the entire staff... and 2.4 of those came from Berrios. The #3 and #2 pitchers were Taylor Rogers had 1.6 fWAR, Kenta Maeda 1.7 fWAR. When your closer, who plays half a season is virtually tied with the best starter still on your team (who is also missing at least 1/2 of next season), that's not a great endorsement for expectations, lol. That said, we'll just have to see what happens.

Also, Royce Lewis will not be playing at the MLB level prior to a cup of coffee in 2022 barring some sort of miraculous performance in the minors so any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success, and if he gets 400 plate appearances, that would mean he would have needed to look incredible in spring training and the first month or two of the season.

 

[Doctor Gast]

I don't trust pundits because too many lists Polanco as a SS not a 2B, where he played most of the season. They have Siemen at 2B when he's more of a SS than Polanco. Polanco is more of a 2B and with a full healthy season I project Polanco as the best 2B next year.

Lewis, Martin and will not be ready next season to be depended to start so I see their low rating. And Larnach will need to regain his confidence to be called up to MLB.

We have holes at SP, SS, CF subbing and an extra closer. When those positions are filled, that'll change our perception and rating.

Kerrigan's glove isn't that important unless he plays CF. Glove is nice  at LF but the bat is more important. 14 DRS seems like an overestimation for that position to me.

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't trust pundits because too many lists Polanco as a SS not a 2B, where he played most of the season. They have Siemen at 2B when he's more of a SS than Polanco. Polanco is more of a 2B and with a full healthy season I project Polanco as the best 2B next year.

Lewis, Martin and will not be ready next season to be depended to start so I see their low rating. And Larnach will need to regain his confidence to be called up to MLB.

We have holes at SP, SS, CF subbing and an extra closer. When those positions are filled, that'll change our perception and rating.

Kerrigan's glove isn't that important unless he plays CF. Glove is nice  at LF but the bat is more important. 14 DRS seems like an overestimation for that position

Marcus Semien is 100% a 2B. He started 146 games at 2B and 14 at SS. He'll be Texas' 2B this year with Corey Seager at short. He's a 2B and holds the record for most HR hit in a single season as a 2B with 45 last year.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Also, Royce Lewis will not be playing at the MLB level prior to a cup of coffee in 2022 barring some sort of miraculous performance in the minors so any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success, and if he gets 400 plate appearances, that would mean he would have needed to look incredible in spring training and the first month or two of the season.

 

Why can't Royce Lewis do what Akil Baddoo did just this last year?

[Doctor Gast]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why can't Royce Lewis do what Akil Baddoo did just this last year?

Would be very nice if that happened and I think he's got the grit to do it but we shouldn't depend on it

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Would be very nice if that happened and I think he's got the grit to do it but we shouldn't depend on it

I'm certainly not predicting it, and the FO shouldn't be planning on it, but I see a lot of talk about him only getting a cup of coffee next year and I think there's a very real chance he gets significant time. Or at least I wouldn't be shocked if he did.

[Doctor Gast]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Marcus Semien is 100% a 2B. He started 146 games at 2B and 14 at SS. He'll be Texas' 2B this year with Corey Seager at short. He's a 2B and holds the record for most HR hit in a single season as a 2B with 45 last year.

If anyone can play SS, they should excel at 2B. I'm not saying that he's more of a SS than a 2B. What I said was " Semien was more of a SS than Polanco". The point I wanted to make was Polanco is more a natural 2B than SS and should be listed and rated as one (especially if Semien was listed as one) and should not be considered a SS.

 

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If anyone can play SS, they should excel at 2B. I'm not saying that he's more of a SS than a 2B. What I said was " Semien was more of a SS than Polanco". The point I wanted to make was Polanco is more a natural 2B than SS and should be listed and rated as one (especially if Semien was listed as one) and should not be considered a SS.

They rate and list them at where they would/are likely to play. I don't get the argument. Why would they rate and list Semien as a SS when he plays 2B? Semien is a better SS than Polanco for sure, and I really hope the Twins don't move Polanco back to short next year, but at this point Polanco is the SS of the Twins next year (unless you think Gordon is starting there). This is more of just a timing issue of when this came out. Once the Twins bring in a new SS Polanco will go back to being listed as the 2B.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why can't Royce Lewis do what Akil Baddoo did just this last year?

He totally could. He could blow Akil Baddoo out of the water, in fact, but the Twins don't have a good reason to rush him to the MLB level because he doesn't need to be on the 26 man or returned to another team. Lewis hasn't played competitive baseball in two years and is coming off a major surgery which can end careers. I'd rather give Lewis Spring Training and a couple months between AA/AAA before calling him up. Like I said, if Lewis gets 400 PA with the Twins, it would signal Lewis simply forced his way onto the roster by playing simply outstanding. That's a great thing.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

They rate and list them at where they would/are likely to play. I don't get the argument. Why would they rate and list Semien as a SS when he plays 2B? Semien is a better SS than Polanco for sure, and I really hope the Twins don't move Polanco back to short next year, but at this point Polanco is the SS of the Twins next year (unless you think Gordon is starting there). This is more of just a timing issue of when this came out. Once the Twins bring in a new SS Polanco will go back to being listed as the 2B.

Where did you get the impression the Twins were considering Polanco as the shortstop? Falvey specifically mentioned even considering Austin Martin for the job, but is open to a veteran signing in the exact same way they were last year. 

https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/
 

I mean, it's certainly not impossible, but I haven't seen anything from Falvey or Levine indicating they were planning on Polanco being the shortstop. 

[Prince William]

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2020/

Maybe there are other places to get a better idea?

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Where did you get the impression the Twins were considering Polanco as the shortstop? Falvey specifically mentioned even considering Austin Martin for the job, but is open to a veteran signing in the exact same way they were last year. 

https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/
 

I mean, it's certainly not impossible, but I haven't seen anything from Falvey or Levine indicating they were planning on Polanco being the shortstop. 

I was referring to the zips projections having Polanco at SS, not the Twins. I don't think the Twins have any intention of playing him there, but Doctor Gast was comparing Semien and Polanco and the positions they're listed at so I was just explaining that zips has him at SS due to the timing of things and there not being another SS on the roster.

[Whitey333]

Let's see.  Twins finished last in division in 2021 with the current FO.  Their pitching and defense was atrocious.  At least up to this point, nothing has been done to improve the team.  They were expected to contend last year and fell flat on their face.  If this pitching staff isn't improved it is going to be another miserable season.  

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

He totally could. He could blow Akil Baddoo out of the water, in fact, but the Twins don't have a good reason to rush him to the MLB level because he doesn't need to be on the 26 man or returned to another team. Lewis hasn't played competitive baseball in two years and is coming off a major surgery which can end careers. I'd rather give Lewis Spring Training and a couple months between AA/AAA before calling him up. Like I said, if Lewis gets 400 PA with the Twins, it would signal Lewis simply forced his way onto the roster by playing simply outstanding. That's a great thing.

Torn ACLs don't really end careers in the modern days of medicine, they're pretty routine at this point. He's healed from that surgery and was on the field playing fake games in FL before the end of the season.

My point isn't that they should rush him, it's that him not having played in 2 years doesn't mean what you suggested it means (that he won't get more than a cup of coffee was your prediction). I mean you said "any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success." I disagree. I think MLB playing time for Lewis should be expected in 2022. The reason for getting him to the majors is he'll be 23 next year and if he's going to be their SS of the future getting his licks in in 2022 instead of 2023 or later makes a ton of sense. 

I think the general consensus is that 2022 won't be a legit year of contention for the Twins (unless every coin flip comes up heads), but I haven't seen many people who don't think 2023 should be. If you're trying to really contend in 2023 you better know darn well who your starting SS is and not still be hoping and crossing your fingers for Royce Lewis to be it because you didn't play him in the majors in 2022 when you were breaking in the rest of your young players. Now if they sign Story or something crazy like that it changes things. But if 2022 is your "break in the young guys" season Lewis should absolutely be involved in that for far more than a September callup unless he is looking like he's not the same player at which point he's not your future SS anyways and none of this matters.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, Prince William said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2020/

Maybe there are other places to get a better idea?

That's an interesting site. Do they have similar analysis for more than the 2020 season?

[Karbo]

Why don't they give Polacios a look if he is still here after the rule 5 draft? He can't hit much worse than Simmons and would be a whole lot cheaper. Reports say he has played decent short at AA.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

10 hours ago, Prince William said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2020/

Maybe there are other places to get a better idea?

Thanks for sharing this informative article.

[bean5302]

On 12/23/2021 at 8:30 AM, chpettit19 said:

Torn ACLs don't really end careers in the modern days of medicine, they're pretty routine at this point. He's healed from that surgery and was on the field playing fake games in FL before the end of the season.

My point isn't that they should rush him, it's that him not having played in 2 years doesn't mean what you suggested it means (that he won't get more than a cup of coffee was your prediction). I mean you said "any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success." I disagree. I think MLB playing time for Lewis should be expected in 2022. The reason for getting him to the majors is he'll be 23 next year and if he's going to be their SS of the future getting his licks in in 2022 instead of 2023 or later makes a ton of sense. 

I think the general consensus is that 2022 won't be a legit year of contention for the Twins (unless every coin flip comes up heads), but I haven't seen many people who don't think 2023 should be. If you're trying to really contend in 2023 you better know darn well who your starting SS is and not still be hoping and crossing your fingers for Royce Lewis to be it because you didn't play him in the majors in 2022 when you were breaking in the rest of your young players. Now if they sign Story or something crazy like that it changes things. But if 2022 is your "break in the young guys" season Lewis should absolutely be involved in that for far more than a September callup unless he is looking like he's not the same player at which point he's not your future SS anyways and none of this matters.

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/52/2/128

Meta Analysis showing elite sports players return to sport rates, though the meta analysis included college level players who may have been seniors, etc who may have just elected to graduate and be done or something.

• Football 78%
• Basketball 82%
• Soccer 85%

"Among elite baseball players, ACL reconstruction to the rear batting leg was associated with decreased batting average on return to sport"

I don't think it's as guaranteed as you make it out to be. Lewis relies upon explosive acceleration, lateral movement and sprint speed to generate a lot of his value at shortstop. A lost step or two would make a big impact on Royce Lewis' potential value, though I do think he'll still be athletic enough. Just have to wait and see.

[chpettit19]

On 12/26/2021 at 11:24 AM, bean5302 said:

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/52/2/128

Meta Analysis showing elite sports players return to sport rates, though the meta analysis included college level players who may have been seniors, etc who may have just elected to graduate and be done or something.

• Football 78%
• Basketball 82%
• Soccer 85%

"Among elite baseball players, ACL reconstruction to the rear batting leg was associated with decreased batting average on return to sport"

I don't think it's as guaranteed as you make it out to be. Lewis relies upon explosive acceleration, lateral movement and sprint speed to generate a lot of his value at shortstop. A lost step or two would make a big impact on Royce Lewis' potential value, though I do think he'll still be athletic enough. Just have to wait and see.

That study looks at data going back to 1975. If you don't think the "return to sport" numbers have improved in 50 years I don't know what to tell you. So not only are there college level players who may have been seniors, but it's pulling from data so old as to be almost completely useless, plus older pro players who may have been at the end of their careers anyways. That analysis does nothing for me, sorry.

[bean5302]

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That study looks at data going back to 1975. If you don't think the "return to sport" numbers have improved in 50 years I don't know what to tell you. So not only are there college level players who may have been seniors, but it's pulling from data so old as to be almost completely useless, plus older pro players who may have been at the end of their careers anyways. That analysis does nothing for me, sorry.

Where's your data? Did you accidentally wipe it away before you flushed this morning?

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Where's your data? Did you accidentally wipe it away before you flushed this morning?

Right next to yours in the land of nowhere, I guess. Name 5 pro-athletes who had their careers ended in the last 5 years from ACL tears. I'm sorry I don't care about surgical techniques from 1975 that included sewing the ACL back together and not complete replacements that they do now. A simple google search will lead you to hundreds of Dr's and medical organization's websites that speak about how an ACL tear is no longer a career ending injury.

I appreciate the work that went into digging that paper up, but it's not data that supports an argument against my statement that ACL tears are no longer career enders because we've advanced in science and technology. Sorry.

[bean5302]

On 12/28/2021 at 10:41 AM, chpettit19 said:

Right next to yours in the land of nowhere, I guess. Name 5 pro-athletes who had their careers ended in the last 5 years from ACL tears. I'm sorry I don't care about surgical techniques from 1975 that included sewing the ACL back together and not complete replacements that they do now. A simple google search will lead you to hundreds of Dr's and medical organization's websites that speak about how an ACL tear is no longer a career ending injury.

I appreciate the work that went into digging that paper up, but it's not data that supports an argument against my statement that ACL tears are no longer career enders because we've advanced in science and technology. Sorry.

You bring your own facts and data. If you can find something, stomp my facts and data into the ground, don't ask me to keep searching for something that proves you're right and I'm wrong.

The paper may go back to a time which seems disconnected to what we consider modern techniques, but the research paper was published in 2018. I am not a surgical researcher and I'm not qualified to evaluate the validity of the sample data used.

I found articles talking about modern techniques in ACL repair proving to be unreliable or problematic over time and other advancements proving to be non-valuable. I found nothing in my search to indicate ACL repair was almost certainly going to be successful with modern techniques.

https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20170712/patients-who-never-make-it-back-after-acl-injury-present-opportunities-challenges
 

According to Robert A. Arciero, MD, professor of orthopedics at the UConn Health Center, studies have shown there is a return-to-play rate of about 63% to 65% for professional football players after ACL injury and related treatment.

This is lower than public perception, he noted.

The percent of return to play after ACL injury “in high school-aged kids, [is] somewhere in the mid- to high-80s,” Arciero said. “In major league soccer, it is somewhere between 70% and 85%.”