Here's Why the Twins Haven't Gone Hard After Pitching

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Spend like NY or LA is a strawman. 

Exactly.

The off-season isn't over, but the Twins saw the lockout staring them in the face, and they so far have spent like they're Pittsburgh.

Someday MLB will create a trophy for the most wins per dollar, or the best performance by a mid-tier market.  Until then, we go for the Commissioner's Trophy as World Series champ, and nothing less.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Exactly this! I picked the AL Central because, well, that's the division the Twins are trying to win, and the teams they compete against most frequently. But I also picked it because those teams operate on somewhat similar financial footing. 

It is utterly irrelevant to say "Look, the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros signed a big free agent pitcher, why don't the Twins??" Those teams operate in a completely different context. 

So many people act like throwing money at free agent pitching is some surefire path to contention or getting over the hump. From my view there is just no real evidence of this being true, at least for a team like the Twins. 

Here are the winning percentages and number of 90 win seasons for all of the teams with similar or less revenue since 2000.  The Padres and Rockies are closest to the Twins in revenue.  The only team with a worse record over the past 2 decades would be the Royals.    Anyone who cares to actually know the facts about roster construction should go to Fangraphs and look at the years these teams won 90 or more.  Look at the players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more.  Then, if you don't know how they were acquired go to BB Reference.  What you will find is that internally developed players and players acquired as prospects or before they ever produced a 1.5 WAR season dominate the acquisition methodology.  You will see virtually no high-end free agent SPs.  The only one I can think of is the Dbacks got Greinke in 2016 when they signed the big TV contract.  The won 69 / 93 / 82 games with him and traded at 2019 deadline.  They were knocked out in the first round in 2017.   I don't understand why people don't actually look at how these teams were built before taking a hard stance on how it should be done.  There are 51 90+ win seasons.  I welcome anyone to show us all the teams that got there with high end free agent pitching.     

Oakland        .535             10

Indians         .516             9

Twins            .502             6

Mariners       .480             4

Dbacks         .490             4

Brewers        .488             4

Rays             .507             3

Reds             .481             3

Orioles         .459             2

Pirates           .452             2

Marlins         .480             1

Padres           .476             1

Rockies         .489             1

Royals           .442             1

                       

                            

                            

                                                

[Dantes929]

I always like home grown.    Get Greinke and Pineda and hope for the best.   One issue with your 2008 summary though.   Twins won 8 of Livan's first 9 starts which was crucial for a good start and for competing through the season.   He didn't do too badly after that.   Liriano was coming off surgery and started 2008 going 0-3 and had no clue.   He was sent down to figure things out and was pitching great by the end of July.    The only thing wrong with using Hernandez that year was that they waited at least one and probably 2 games too late to release him in favor of Liriano that year.    Liriano pitched great the rest of that year.    I remember hoping at the time that waiting one game too long to exchange them would not cost them but of course it did.

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Exactly this! I picked the AL Central because, well, that's the division the Twins are trying to win, and the teams they compete against most frequently. But I also picked it because those teams operate on somewhat similar financial footing. 

It is utterly irrelevant to say "Look, the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros signed a big free agent pitcher, why don't the Twins??" Those teams operate in a completely different context. 

So many people act like throwing money at free agent pitching is some surefire path to contention or getting over the hump. From my view there is just no real evidence of this being true, at least for a team like the Twins. 

I have posted the production of 5+ year free agent SPs more than once.  I am not going to go through that exercise again but I will summarize by saving 3 WAR season are unusual.  Perhaps more importantly to the Twins, their production after the 1st year is downright horrible and beyond year 3 they are a serious detriment outside of a couple truly elite SPs  (Scherzer/Greinke/Verlander) who defy the normal decline.  History also shows us that successful teams of similar revenue have never been a product of high-end / high dollar free agent SPs.  Yet, many here insistent we sign them now so we have them when we are ready to contend.  This is a horrible strategy.  Given the 1st 2 seasons are by far the best and they are generally a detriment the last 2-3 years, it is crucial to sign them when the team is in a window of contention.  

I would welcome examples of success stories from anyone who disagrees.

[Boom Boom]

I sure hope some of these guys have innings left in their arms once August comes around.