2022 Rotation

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the season started tomorrow, what would the rotation be?  I think it’s this:

1. Ryan

25 yrs old, top level reached: MLB,   2021 stats: 10.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.79 WHIP, 4.05 ERA 5.4 H/9, 1.4 HR/9

2. Ober

26 yrs old, top level reached: MLB,  2021 stats: 9.4 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1.20 WHIP, 4.19 ERA 9.0 H/9, 1.9 HR/9

3. Winder

25 yrs old, top level reached: AAA,  Minors stats: 9.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 1.14 WHIP, 3.74 ERA 8.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

4. Duran

24 yrs old, top level reached: AAA,   Minors stats: 8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.30 WHIP, 3.99 ERA 8.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

5. Bundy

29 yrs old, top level reached: MLB,   MLB stats: 8.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.31 WHIP, 4.72 ERA 8.8 H/9, 1.6 HR/9

 

Then, in the wings

Balazovic

23 yrs old, top level reached: AA,     Minors stats: 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP, 3.41 ERA 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

Canterino

24 yrs old, top level reached: A+,   Minors stats: 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.98 WHIP, 2.96 ERA 5.9 H/9, 0.8 HR/9

Woods-Richardson

21 yrs old, top level reached: AA,  Minors stats: 11.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.24 WHIP, 4.21 ERA 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9

Maeda is also likely to come back late in 2022.

 

Now, would I mind a free agent signing like Carlos Rodon? No.  But that’s not a terrible group of pitchers as of now, with four of them in the 24-26 age range.  Not convinced the Twins need to sign 2-3 starting pitchers on the free agent market.  Would rather see them sign one pitcher and then use additional $ towards upgrading the line-up.

[dxpavelka]

1:  Yet to be acquired trade acquisition (Montas, Bassitt, Lopez?) 

2:  Ryan

3:  Yet to be signed free agent (Pineida?)

4:  Ober

5:  Bundy

The only real question would seem to be:  What is the MLB record for most different starting pitchers used in a season and will the Twins break it?

 

 

[Brandon]

If the Twins do not make another acquisition then i see the rotation starting the season as:

1.  Bundy

2. Ober

3.  Dobnak

4.  Ryan

5.  Thorpe/ Jax

The Twins will want the young guys Duran and Winder to spend some time in AAA after missing time last year.  After 5 or 6 starts we will see if change begin to occur.

Though I suspect the Twins will wheel and deal before the season and we will have this for our rotation.

1.  Trade (I'm going with Bassit for cost reasons)

2.  Pineda

3.  Ober

4.  Bundy/ Dobnak  (i'm not convinced Bundy has the rotation spot 100% locked down and someone else could step in and Dobnak would be first in line)

5.  Ryan

 

 

[Danchat]

Dobnak is going to be in the rotation to start over Winder and Duran... and Jhoan barely pitched last year and didn't look ready when he did. He still has a ways to go, and could end up in the pen or as a hybrid starter of some sort.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

If the Twins do not make another acquisition then i see the rotation starting the season as:

1.  Bundy

2. Ober

3.  Dobnak

4.  Ryan

5.  Thorpe/ Jax

The Twins will want the young guys Duran and Winder to spend some time in AAA after missing time last year.  After 5 or 6 starts we will see if change begin to occur.

Though I suspect the Twins will wheel and deal before the season and we will have this for our rotation.

1.  Trade (I'm going with Bassit for cost reasons)

2.  Pineda

3.  Ober

4.  Bundy/ Dobnak  (i'm not convinced Bundy has the rotation spot 100% locked down and someone else could step in and Dobnak would be first in line)

5.  Ryan

 

 

I’m with you. alternatively Twins don’t swing a trade, but do sign Pineda 

1) Pineda (signed)

2) Ober

3) Bundy 

4) Ryan piggy back Jax

5) Dobnak piggy back Thorpe

[old nurse]

Good thing the season doesn’t start tomorrow. With nobody close to stretched out it would be all bullpen games

[tony&rodney]

AlwaysinModeration, you escaped your name with a four rookies and a wish starting pitching rotation. There must be some research about inexperienced rotations to begin a season. Can anyone provide that information. Did a team starting all rookies and a #6 SP ever find themselves competitive? 

Like many, I like the looks of the pitching prospects in the Twins system. Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Canterino, Enlow, Petty, Strotman, Vallimont, Raya, and Varland. These players need leadership and time.

My iteration is likewise light on experience with a wish following three rookies, but led by two stalwarts.

SP #1 Chris Bassitt

      #2 Frankie Montas

      #3 Bailey Ober

      #4 Edward Cabrera or Luis Castillo or at least Michael Pineda

      #5 Josh Winder

      #6 Dylan Bundy

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

AlwaysinModeration, you escaped your name with a four rookies and a wish starting pitching rotation. There must be some research about inexperienced rotations to begin a season. Can anyone provide that information. Did a team starting all rookies and a #6 SP ever find themselves competitive? 

Like many, I like the looks of the pitching prospects in the Twins system. Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Canterino, Enlow, Petty, Strotman, Vallimont, Raya, and Varland. These players need leadership and time.

My iteration is likewise light on experience with a wish following three rookies, but led by two stalwarts.

SP #1 Chris Bassitt

      #2 Frankie Montas

      #3 Bailey Ober

      #4 Edward Cabrera or Luis Castillo or at least Michael Pineda

      #5 Josh Winder

      #6 Dylan Bundy

 

Fair that my suggestion is likely overly reliant on inexperienced pitchers.  But what jumps out to me is that the organization had three legit starting pitchers options age 25-26 (Ryan, Ober, Winder), two at age 24 (Duran, Canterino), and Balazovic at 23 - and Woods-Richardson only 21.  It looks like a real pipeline.

This article notes that the average debut age for MLB pitchers over recent years is 24.8 years old, and their velocity peaks, and starts to decline, at 25-26 years old: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/09/the-makeup-of-a-pitcher-debuting-in-the-major-leagues/

I think it is likely the Twins get another pitcher before the new season.  But I’d argue that getting 2-3 additional starters (especially if they are in the mold of the Shoemaker/Happ type, although I would guess no one is arguing for that) will wind up blocking good young arms from getting a shot.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Good thing the season doesn’t start tomorrow. With nobody close to stretched out it would be all bullpen games

They have zero pitchers that’ll get anywhere close to 150 innings, and a couple that could just crack 100 to 110 provided health. There’s no starting pitchers on the market yet that would break that 150 inning mark either. Barring a massive super trading spree that brings back 2-3 starting pitchers and wipes out the farm (highly unlikely Falvine part with their prized lottery tix)  2022 will be almost entirely bullpen games anyways just like it was in ‘21

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

Dobnak is going to be in the rotation to start over Winder and Duran... and Jhoan barely pitched last year and didn't look ready when he did. He still has a ways to go, and could end up in the pen or as a hybrid starter of some sort.

You are likely right on Duran needing more time, but he should be knocking on the door and deserves a chance.

Dobnak, on the other hand, I am not eager to see back in the rotation at all.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Sconnie said:

They have zero pitchers that’ll get anywhere close to 150 innings, and a couple that could just crack 100 to 110 provided health. There’s no starting pitchers on the market yet that would break that 150 inning mark either. Barring a massive super trading spree that brings back 2-3 starting pitchers and wipes out the farm (highly unlikely Falvine part with their prized lottery tix)  2022 will be almost entirely bullpen games anyways just like it was in ‘21

 

The beauty and failure of the internet. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

37 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The beauty and failure of the internet. 

What does that mean?

[AlwaysinModeration]

26 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

What does that mean?

That was clearly a witty and incisive rejoinder to a completely different post, which remarkably proved the point!

[TopGunn#22]

We all would like to see the Twins be competitive in 2022.  They were back to back division winners in 2019 and the Covid-shortened 2020 season.  They have some talent and that talent isn't in their sunset years.  Cruz is gone and he was a BIG impact on the lineup.  Donaldson is still a pretty productive offensive player.  Buxton is signed and if healthy, should provide MVP type impact.  We have a "Black Hole" at SS.  And the pitching staff, as listed, is potentially the worst in Twins history.  Yes, there is "potential."  But youth and inexperience, not to mention the overly cautious babying of innings pitched and pitches thrown for ALL pitchers nowadays, not just "young" ones has the Twins organization standing at the edge of a big cliff.  This is NOT what I expected, and was led to believe to be expected for a Falvey&Levine led Twins team.  

Tony&Rodney listed off all the potentially GOOD pitchers in the Twins system.  That WAS what I expected from a Falvey&Levine regime.  But this FO dithered away on the FA front.  Guys like Eduardo Rodriguez and Jon Gray at #1 & #2 would have been tremendous additions to the pitching staff and rather than "blocking" any of the young guns, would have given them time to develop and provided a backstop for injuries. And we could have "won" the bidding for both.   Now, the FO is forced to make a trade or two just to fill out the rotation.  As much as I'd like to see Rodon added and a Montas, or Bassitt or even a Pablo Lopez or Sixto Sanchez consider this:

The Dodgers, Yankees and Angels have done literally nothing to add to their pitching staffs and ALL have needs and piles of cash and prospects if they choose to go after someone.  Plus, if one of them gambles on Rodon and he should NOT work out, they have the ability to simply "absorb" that mistake.  Our beloved Twins do not.  We could still make a move for Danny Duffey and Pineda and I wouldn't hate that.  But we can't just assume Pineda will come back (just like the Dodgers can't just assume Kershaw will come back, especially with the Rangers willing to spend big) and Duffey and Bundy, while being a little better than Happ & Shoemaker is just SO Twins.  

The twins are squarely behind the 8-ball at this point.  No matter if Buxton has an MVP season and others have career years in 2022, a pitching staff as currently listed above will lose 90-100 games.  It would be great to have a healthy Maeda from opening day and Berrios to head the staff.  But somehow, the plan of our FO went sideways in 2021 and our guys just haven't been able to come up with a plan to upgrade and restore our pitching rotation.  We were all alarmed when on the eve of this off season beginning,  the FO stated they "were still working out the details of what their plan would be going forward."  And then guys like Ed-Rod and Gray, Ray and Stroman were gobbled up and all I could envision was our FO in a roundtable meeting, planning away, and one of them monitoring activity says "well guys, we were "in" on Ray, but he just signed.  Wait a minute...Stroman just signed too, and so did Gray!!!  Gosh, things are moving quickly!  How much money did Jim say we could spend?"  

[theBOMisthebomb]

10 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

You are likely right on Duran needing more time, but he should be knocking on the door and deserves a chance.

Dobnak, on the other hand, I am not eager to see back in the rotation at all.

The Twins just gave Dobnak a  length extension last year. It seems they are invested long term in Dobnak and will probably give him a few more shots at a rotation spot. 

[tony&rodney]

We will get our answer by April, but AlwaysinModeration may have the Opening Day rotation correct. Twins Daily started with a largely assumed roster cost of $130 million. Adding Trevor Story and Carlos Rodon fits in that budget. TopGunn#22 correctly points out that there will be serious competition for pitching in the trading market. Perhaps we all missed the actual budget badly, by about $30-40 million and the Twins are going to field a team at $90-100 million. Surprisingly, there are actually opportunities to make some trades that bring in a few pitchers to meet even that low budget. Falvey will need to be creative and take a few risks once the CBA has been concluded and business is back to normal. Finally, the ongoing specter of Covid and its effects cannot be ignored. How many people have put together a team for under $100 million? Does that team compete?

[Dan Nodsle]

The Dobnak ship has sailed

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

AlwaysinModeration, you escaped your name with a four rookies and a wish starting pitching rotation. There must be some research about inexperienced rotations to begin a season. Can anyone provide that information. Did a team starting all rookies and a #6 SP ever find themselves competitive? 

Like many, I like the looks of the pitching prospects in the Twins system. Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Sands, Canterino, Enlow, Petty, Strotman, Vallimont, Raya, and Varland. These players need leadership and time.

My iteration is likewise light on experience with a wish following three rookies, but led by two stalwarts.

SP #1 Chris Bassitt

      #2 Frankie Montas

      #3 Bailey Ober

      #4 Edward Cabrera or Luis Castillo or at least Michael Pineda

      #5 Josh Winder

      #6 Dylan Bundy

 

Why not Ryan?

[tony&rodney]

26 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Why not Ryan?

Ryan is listed among the prospects. I'm trying to build a team for $90 M. I like Ryan, a lot, but wonder if he might be the player (along with a few other players) to help the Twins acquire Bassitt & Montas. The starting pitching prospects the Twins are sitting on are all promising as mid to lower rotation hurlers and my belief is that a mentor/experienced arm(s) would do wonders for our inexperienced pitchers and help them to reach beyond what is possible in a rotation with zero examples. I'm open to any ideas that make the Twins a better team and while I may be delusional and in the minority here, I believe that two or three moves could make the Twins competitive in 2022. The rough challenge is to put a team together for under $100 million without moving any large contracts (i.e. JD & Sano). I don't see removing those two as productive for the team on a number of fronts and it is also unlikely a team will take the entire contracts and return anything worth the deal.

[Boom Boom]

1. Bundy

2. Ober

3. Dobnak

4. Pineda (probably)

5. TBA

We'll see how the lock out ends, but under the current CBA I really think the Twins would keep Ryan at AAA for a few weeks.  

[AceWrigley]

Pineda

Bundy

Ryan

Ober

Dobnak

[KirbyDome89]

On 12/18/2021 at 2:07 PM, Brandon said:

4.  Bundy/ Dobnak  (i'm not convinced Bundy has the rotation spot 100% locked down and someone else could step in and Dobnak would be first in line)

Barring some sort of miraculous flurry of moves where the Twins sign and/or trade for 3 better pitchers Bundy is an absolute lock. They were happy rolling with Shoemaker and Happ in a year where a deep playoff run was the expectation. 

[dxpavelka]

19 hours ago, old nurse said:

Good thing the season doesn’t start tomorrow. With nobody close to stretched out it would be all bullpen games

not to mention that it'*d be friggin' cold for the home opener......

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

not to mention that it'*d be friggin' cold for the home opener......

Not as cold as if Bundy is the Opening Day starter followed by four sacrificial rookies.

[Linus]

If any of the above scenarios become reality the FO should be fired immediately then runout of town on a rail followed by tar and feathering. 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

not to mention that it'*d be friggin' cold for the home opener......

I never saw anyone wearing a coat on fantasy island. Did hades freeze over?

[Brandon]

16 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Barring some sort of miraculous flurry of moves where the Twins sign and/or trade for 3 better pitchers Bundy is an absolute lock. They were happy rolling with Shoemaker and Happ in a year where a deep playoff run was the expectation. 

Bundy is what Shoemaker was....a lotto ticket / placeholder.  Last season the Twins 6, 7, 8, and 9th starters ( Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer and Duran) were all injured forcing the Twins to give Shoemaker 4 or 5 extra starts.  If Bundy is successful, he can keep his job.  Of he pitches like last year, Winder or Duran or Balazovich..... Will be ready soon

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ryan is listed among the prospects. I'm trying to build a team for $90 M. I like Ryan, a lot, but wonder if he might be the player (along with a few other players) to help the Twins acquire Bassitt & Montas. The starting pitching prospects the Twins are sitting on are all promising as mid to lower rotation hurlers and my belief is that a mentor/experienced arm(s) would do wonders for our inexperienced pitchers and help them to reach beyond what is possible in a rotation with zero examples. I'm open to any ideas that make the Twins a better team and while I may be delusional and in the minority here, I believe that two or three moves could make the Twins competitive in 2022. The rough challenge is to put a team together for under $100 million without moving any large contracts (i.e. JD & Sano). I don't see removing those two as productive for the team on a number of fronts and it is also unlikely a team will take the entire contracts and return anything worth the deal.

I am usually very impressed by 99% of your posts, however I would have to oppose your idea of trading Ryan. I'm no pitching guru, but I believe Ryan is a special player with a high ceiling. He still has room to improve, and he was good in his limited roles last year.  He may be the Twins best pitching prospect. 

[TwinsDr2021]

43 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Of he pitches like last year, Winder or Duran or Balazovich..... Will be ready soon

 

Will they? for sure? Winder pitched 72 innings last year and dominated AA for 54.2, and wasn't great for the 17.1 in AAA. Duran pitched 16 in AAA and wasn't good. Balazovic did pitch 97 inning in AA and was mostly good. And has had a good run of success prior to last year, so he is the one I would bet on. I hope and kind of expect WInder to force his way up, but Duran I have zero faith in him (next year).

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

Bundy is what Shoemaker was....a lotto ticket / placeholder.  Last season the Twins 6, 7, 8, and 9th starters ( Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer and Duran) were all injured forcing the Twins to give Shoemaker 4 or 5 extra starts.  If Bundy is successful, he can keep his job.  Of he pitches like last year, Winder or Duran or Balazovich..... Will be ready soon

 

If it's his job to lose, I'd considered the spot locked down. Semantics maybe.