10 Breakout Twins Prospect Candidates: 1-5

[Nash Walker]

José Miranda and Louie Varland both broke out in a massive way in 2021, paving their path to the majors. Who could follow their lead in 2022? 

6-10:
10. LHP Jovani Morán
9. LHP Steve Hajjar
8. RHP Marco Raya
7. RHP Chris Vallimont
6. OF Kala’i Rosario

5. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Predicting a breakout for a global top-100 prospect seems odd. For Woods Richardson, you could describe it as more of a bounce back. The Twins received the tall, well-regarded right-hander and Austin Martin in the blockbuster that sent José Berríos to Toronto last July. 

Woods Richardson had a forgettable season, posting a 5.91 ERA and 14% walk rate in just over 53 innings at Double-A. Even with those numbers, Woods Richardson used his (fluctuating) mid-90s fastball and sharp slider to strike out 77 of the 240 batters he faced. He just turned 21, and his future remains bright. 

4. LF/OF Alerick Soularie
The Twins picked Soularie in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft after he hit a remarkable .336/.448/.586 in 76 games at Tennessee. Soularie’s 1.068 OPS in 2019 was the third-highest mark in the SEC, behind only JJ Bleday (Marlins No. 5 prospect) and future teammate Austin Martin. 

Soularie’s future position is questionable, and he’ll likely fill multiple spots as he moves up the system. He was limited with a broken foot early in 2021 but returned to hit .240/.367/.360 in 34 games, mainly for Fort Myers. I’ll take the over on Soularie’s projected impact for 2022. 

3. 1B Aaron Sabato
It was a rough professional start for Sabato, whom the Twins selected with their first-round pick during the COVID-19 shutdown. The slugging Sabato hit just .189 for Fort Myers but buoyed it with a .365 On-Base Percentage, walking in nearly 20% of his plate appearances. 

The Twins promoted Sabato despite his shoddy numbers, and he responded hugely. The former North Carolina star hit .253/.402/.613 for an OPS over 1.000 in 97 plate appearances for the Kernels. He bashed eight homers in just 22 games, finally taking advantage of strikes he received for getting ahead in the count. He has a chance to move up quickly in 2022. 

2. RHP Jhoan Duran
Duran was undoubtedly on his way to Minnesota before an elbow injury derailed his season. Standing 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Duran is an imposing presence with the stuff to boot. He reaches 100 MPH with his fastball and pairs it with a devastating “splinker” hybrid, a pitch that should help him get both lefties and righties out in the majors. 

The Twins have a slew of potential threes or fours in their system. They only have a few who possess the repertoire to become a true No. 1 starter. Duran fits that bill, and it’s not out of the question that he could operate a spot in the Twins’ rotation as early as mid-2022. 

1. OF Emmanuel Rodríguez
It’s ill-advised to project teenagers as future stars, but if there’s one player in the Twins’ system who could warrant that excitement, it’s Rodríguez. Signed as an international free agent in 2019, Rodríguez quickly established himself during his first professional season. 

The 18-year-old left-handed swinger slugged .524 in 37 games for the FCL Twins. Rodríguez posted an .870 OPS despite striking out in nearly 40% of his plate appearances. More consistent contact and an adapted approach would turn Rodríguez, who plays a strong centerfield, into a true force. That could happen in 2022. 

Who are you most excited about? Comment below!

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[HrbieFan]

Woods-Richardson is a big part of any future Twins success. Can they harness his potential? Do they cut down his repertoire to focus on his 3 best pitches? More importantly, can he stay healthy to allow the Twins to build up his arm to 120+IPs? 

[Dman]

That is a decent top 10.  I would quibble with whether a few of those qualify as breakout candidates but all the names are intriguing. SWR was really good to start the season and like a lot of pitchers last year ran out of gas half way through the season.  He was very young for AA and proved he belonged there at least to start the season.  He has as good a chance as any of the Twins top pitchers to get the call next year.

Soularie does look like a good pick to bounce back.  He didn't show much power last year but with the broken foot probably understandable.  The question about him in the draft seemed to be if he would have enough power in his bat to make it as he didn't really have a strong position to play other than left field.  I know the Twins were thinking 2nd base as well but they have a glut of talent at 2nd right now he has a better path to left field if he can find a power stroke.

After watching Sabato struggle last year I really question his ability to make it.  I think if you just don't throw him any fastballs he will always have a high K rate.  He looks like Rooker part 2 to me but it is early.  He does have better plate discipline than Rooker so maybe just maybe he can get better outcomes at the plate.  He had one of the more brutal starts for a college first round pick that I can remember.  He is a long shot IMO but I hope he figures it out and becomes a force at the plate.

Like everyone I love Durans potential but he hasn't pitched much and there are always questions about arms that throw 100MPH because they get stressed and seem prone to injury issues.  Right now he feels more like a tease than a sure thing.  He has nowhere to go but up after the last two years so should be a good breakout candidate.  My guess is he gets injured again and likely needs surgery but we'll see.

Agree with your number one Rodriguez.  The FCL was a tougher league last year and he excelled as a young player.  With more experience that K rate should get better.  He looks like he could be special but it is early.

[roger]

Thanks for these reports, Nash.

Really excited to see SWR dominate this coming year.  If he does, we could see him at Target Field by mid-late season.

If Rodriguez was signed in 2019, did he play in the DSL that year?  If not, this past summer would have been his first experience in professional ball.  Very unusual for Latin kids to break-in in the GCL/FCL league, rather than beginning in the DSL.  

[mikelink45]

This was an intriguing list.  Duran needs to make the Twins this year.  I am not sure if that is a breakout - I think it is just inevitable.  The same with Balazovic.  Like DMAN I am not in on Sabato.  I would be higher on Wallner who is much like Sabato except he make more contact and best of all he has an excellent arm and can field providing us with Kepler's replacement.  

[Linus]

First thanks for the article. It has to be tough coming up with stuff to write about. I am excited about 6-10 not so much about 1-5. A lot of suspects on this list. I feel like Duran has the ability if he can stay healthy. The rest of them I waver between maybe and doubtful. 

[Trov]

Sabato has been someone I was following.  I was not a fan of the pick when we made it, mainly because I am not a fan of bat only guys in first round unless they are super elite.  When Sabato started off so poor, I wanted to know more about his numbers.  His OBP was high but average and slugging low.  Numbers do not tell the full story.  I wondered is it FGL issue, which is know for sapping power, was it not being aggressive, was it not getting much to swing at?  Then they moved him up and he had a great stint.  Is that who we should be expecting or was it short sample in new league without facing him before?

The walk rate is encouraging and hopefully he is not taking good pitches to swing at just to work the count.  I am hoping he does break out and forces the Twins to move him up to AA quickly and maybe even end year in St. Paul. 

[DJL44]

I was excited to see Christian Encarnacion-Strand destroy Fort Myers. He's about 6 months younger than Sabato but did much better at that level. It will be interesting to see how the Twins get both of them playing time.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nash for the interesting article. I was surprised that Sabato was so high. I have to admit that I'm not so excited about bat 1st, DH type prospects because we have so many of them and which doesn't fit a eminent need. I agree w/ the remaining.

[chpettit19]

I'm definitely in the minority here, but I agree with Sabato as a good breakout candidate. I think he'll get better as he moves up the levels and sees more pitchers who have control. The lower levels are full of guys with filthy stuff who have no idea where the ball is going. That puts an uber patient hitter like Sabato in a tough spot. His walk rates were incredibly encouraging and when he moved up and started facing pitchers with a little better control he started mashing. 

Am I predicting he's Nelson Cruz in 2 years? Absolutely not. But I think he has the potential to have a nice career as a DH in the bigs. Watching his HRs from last year, many of them were to center and right center. Patience and the ability to launch 420 foot shots to the opposite gap are really nice building blocks for 22 year old.

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm definitely in the minority here, but I agree with Sabato as a good breakout candidate. I think he'll get better as he moves up the levels and sees more pitchers who have control. The lower levels are full of guys with filthy stuff who have no idea where the ball is going. That puts an uber patient hitter like Sabato in a tough spot. His walk rates were incredibly encouraging and when he moved up and started facing pitchers with a little better control he started mashing. 

Am I predicting he's Nelson Cruz in 2 years? Absolutely not. But I think he has the potential to have a nice career as a DH in the bigs. Watching his HRs from last year, many of them were to center and right center. Patience and the ability to launch 420 foot shots to the opposite gap are really nice building blocks for 22 year old.

While I haven't completely lost faith in Sabato and SSS's cannot be relied upon I think if you watched him swing in A ball it would cause concern.  I saw a guy swinging out of his shoe's with the barrel not even close to the ball.  Especially on breaking stuff.  I get that it takes time to recognize those pitches and lay off but his ability to make contact appears limited to me.  He is not an Eddie Rosario I can hit almost anything kind of bat.  He is more a I think I can guess what is coming and swing out of my shoes type of bat. 

I am sorry but I don't buy into the hitting better with pitchers with more control.  What does that say about Eduoard Jullien who was in the same league had the same walk rate or better and he hit better than Sabato.  Or how about Emmanual Rodriguez who is younger and in and even lower league dealing with pitcher's with even greater lack of control and his OPS is much higher?  I think it comes down to ability to put the barrel on the ball and I am concerned Sabato might not have the same level of ability some others do.

Does two SSS in an inaugural season tell us much?  Probably not.  I kind of look at Sabato as maybe like a Nick Pratto type player.  Hopefully he can adjust and get better and find that breakout season.  His High A numbers give some hope but he has a ways to go to convince me he even gets a shot at MLB ball after what I saw last year.  

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Dman said:

While I haven't completely lost faith in Sabato and SSS's cannot be relied upon I think if you watched him swing in A ball it would cause concern.  I saw a guy swinging out of his shoe's with the barrel not even close to the ball.  Especially on breaking stuff.  I get that it takes time to recognize those pitches and lay off but his ability to make contact appears limited to me.  He is not an Eddie Rosario I can hit almost anything kind of bat.  He is more a I think I can guess what is coming and swing out of my shoes type of bat. 

I am sorry but I don't buy into the hitting better with pitchers with more control.  What does that say about Eduoard Jullien who was in the same league had the same walk rate or better and he hit better than Sabato.  Or how about Emmanual Rodriguez who is younger and in and even lower league dealing with pitcher's with even greater lack of control and his OPS is much higher?  I think it comes down to ability to put the barrel on the ball and I am concerned Sabato might not have the same level of ability some others do.

Does two SSS in an inaugural season tell us much?  Probably not.  I kind of look at Sabato as maybe like a Nick Pratto type player.  Hopefully he can adjust and get better and find that breakout season.  His High A numbers give some hope but he has a ways to go to convince me he even gets a shot at MLB ball after what I saw last year.  

Julien vs Sabato tells me they're different kinds of hitters. But Sabato had a 165 wRC+ at A+ and Julien's was 144. Julien's ISO was .247 and Sabato's was .360. I think Julien is a good hitter, too. Sabato is a power hitter first and foremost. Julien isn't. You ever watch JD or Cruz hit? They have plenty of times where they're nowhere near the ball and coming out of their shoes. It's part of the game now. Most hitters are educated guess hitters, and if they're wrong they miss by a lot. Julien had a BABIP of .451 in A ball. You want to make the argument that that's sustainable? Had a BABIP of .322 in A+. Sabato had BABIPS of .270 and .297. Even with the lower BABIP at A+ Sabato beat Julien by 21 points of wRC+. That's not a small margin. That's a ton.

Rodriguez hit .214. So he's got the same problem as Sabato I guess? Don't see the point you're trying to make with him. He's number 1 on Nash's list. Walked a ton. Struck out at a crazy rate. But when he made contact he hit it hard. Sabato was in a league known to be tough on power and still came out as an above average (108 wRC+) hitter in that league even with his mighty struggles. Then moved up to a league that isn't so hard on power and walked a ton, struck out like crazy, but when he made contact he hit it hard. And had dominant numbers compared to the league as a whole.

Sabato is also coming from college where he dominated (.332/.459/.698/1.158 career) as a freshman and sophomore against the best competition college baseball has to offer. Struggled out of the gate with the pro game. Found his footing and mashed bombs. Again, not predicting he's going to suddenly be Nelson Cruz, but even with his struggles he was slightly above average at A ball and absolutely dominant at A+. He's got a pretty solid track record of putting up monster numbers.

And I can put you in contact with a number of current and former players who will tell you facing pitchers with better control and a better game plan as you make your way up makes it easier to hit if you're a certain type of hitter. Now maybe Sabato isn't that kind of thinking man's hitter, but his approach suggests he just may be.

Not at all predicting he becomes a star anytime soon, but with all that data I think it's more than reasonable for Nash to suggest he's got a good chance at a breakout season and for me to agree.

[Seth Stohs]

5 hours ago, roger said:

If Rodriguez was signed in 2019, did he play in the DSL that year?  If not, this past summer would have been his first experience in professional ball.  Very unusual for Latin kids to break-in in the GCL/FCL league, rather than beginning in the DSL.  

I don't know this, but the fact that there wasn't certainty about what would happen in the DSL as far as games and such may have meant a few more players moved up to FM/FCL sooner... That said, Rodriguez is someone they'll push and make sure to build. He's exciting. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Julien vs Sabato tells me they're different kinds of hitters. But Sabato had a 165 wRC+ at A+ and Julien's was 144. Julien's ISO was .247 and Sabato's was .360. I think Julien is a good hitter, too. Sabato is a power hitter first and foremost. Julien isn't. You ever watch JD or Cruz hit? They have plenty of times where they're nowhere near the ball and coming out of their shoes. It's part of the game now. Most hitters are educated guess hitters, and if they're wrong they miss by a lot. Julien had a BABIP of .451 in A ball. You want to make the argument that that's sustainable? Had a BABIP of .322 in A+. Sabato had BABIPS of .270 and .297. Even with the lower BABIP at A+ Sabato beat Julien by 21 points of wRC+. That's not a small margin. That's a ton.

Rodriguez hit .214. So he's got the same problem as Sabato I guess? Don't see the point you're trying to make with him. He's number 1 on Nash's list. Walked a ton. Struck out at a crazy rate. But when he made contact he hit it hard. Sabato was in a league known to be tough on power and still came out as an above average (108 wRC+) hitter in that league even with his mighty struggles. Then moved up to a league that isn't so hard on power and walked a ton, struck out like crazy, but when he made contact he hit it hard. And had dominant numbers compared to the league as a whole.

Sabato is also coming from college where he dominated (.332/.459/.698/1.158 career) as a freshman and sophomore against the best competition college baseball has to offer. Struggled out of the gate with the pro game. Found his footing and mashed bombs. Again, not predicting he's going to suddenly be Nelson Cruz, but even with his struggles he was slightly above average at A ball and absolutely dominant at A+. He's got a pretty solid track record of putting up monster numbers.

And I can put you in contact with a number of current and former players who will tell you facing pitchers with better control and a better game plan as you make your way up makes it easier to hit if you're a certain type of hitter. Now maybe Sabato isn't that kind of thinking man's hitter, but his approach suggests he just may be.

Not at all predicting he becomes a star anytime soon, but with all that data I think it's more than reasonable for Nash to suggest he's got a good chance at a breakout season and for me to agree.

Yeah I will admit I am biased when it comes to Sabato and it comes from watching him become an almost 2 outcome player as he walked or K'd in most of his at bats early in the season.  It seemed like his bat had a hole in it as he massively struggled to make contact in general. 

He did start to pick up stream late in the second half and he was impressive at High A.  Maybe unfairly but I discounted High A to some degree because of the small sample size and because with so many pitchers falling off late in the season his hit mistakes prone approach seemed likely to be more effective.  Still the numbers are the numbers and he did well at high A.

Jullian and his bloated BABIP probably wasn't a great comparison but they both started in A ball and Jullien had his own contact struggles but when I watched him he at least he was making contact.  His K rate was pretty high as well I think higher than Sabato's but he was actually hitting the ball as well.  Should all of those hits have fallen in probably not but it certainly gave those watching the impression he could make good contact bat to ball.  So yeah good point on your part as I didn't look at BABIP just used my impression of watching Jullien getting hits and a near 300 average at A ball. A 451 BABIP is no where near sustainable so you could say his batting average was easily 100 points artificially high at A ball.  Although his patient approach probably did get him better pitches to hit. Predictably his Average fell to  around 250 at High A but his slugging was actually slightly better there as well.  At any rate your factual point stands that Sabato was better than Jullien by a good margin at high A.

While Rodriguez didn't hit that well my main point is that he is only 18 years old and his OPS was higher than Sabato who is 22 facing pitchers that are even more erratic than Sabato.  He has 4 more years to be as bad as Sabato we will have to wait and see.  Maybe Rodriquez does stay K prone and can't take a walk hard to say haven't been able to watch him so I don't know anything for sure but the numbers seem to indicate that if he can do that at 18 he likely can get much better by age 22.  It was more a point about pitching and if someone 4 years younger can do just as well if not better than Sabato then how good is he?

At any rate you did prove your point well.  I am biased and I can see that for sure now.  I do hope I am wrong and Sabato becomes the next Harmon Killebrew but he will need to show me a lot more next year to convince me.

 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I will admit I am biased when it comes to Sabato and it comes from watching him become an almost 2 outcome player as he walked or K'd in most of his at bats early in the season.  It seemed like his bat had a hole in it as he massively struggled to make contact in general. 

He did start to pick up stream late in the second half and he was impressive at High A.  Maybe unfairly but I discounted High A to some degree because of the small sample size and because with so many pitchers falling off late in the season his hit mistakes prone approach seemed likely to be more effective.  Still the numbers are the numbers and he did well at high A.

Jullian and his bloated BABIP probably wasn't a great comparison but they both started in A ball and Jullien had his own contact struggles but when I watched him he at least he was making contact.  His K rate was pretty high as well I think higher than Sabato's but he was actually hitting the ball as well.  Should all of those hits have fallen in probably not but it certainly gave those watching the impression he could make good contact bat to ball.  So yeah good point on your part as I didn't look at BABIP just used my impression of watching Jullien getting hits and a near 300 average at A ball. A 451 BABIP is no where near sustainable so you could say his batting average was easily 100 points artificially high at A ball.  Although his patient approach probably did get him better pitches to hit. Predictably his Average fell to  around 250 at High A but his slugging was actually slightly better there as well.  At any rate your factual point stands that Sabato was better than Jullien by a good margin at high A.

While Rodriguez didn't hit that well my main point is that he is only 18 years old and his OPS was higher than Sabato who is 22 facing pitchers that are even more erratic than Sabato.  He has 4 more years to be as bad as Sabato we will have to wait and see.  Maybe Rodriquez does stay K prone and can't take a walk hard to say haven't been able to watch him so I don't know anything for sure but the numbers seem to indicate that if he can do that at 18 he likely can get much better by age 22.  It was more a point about pitching and if someone 4 years younger can do just as well if not better than Sabato then how good is he?

At any rate you did prove your point well.  I am biased and I can see that for sure now.  I do hope I am wrong and Sabato becomes the next Harmon Killebrew but he will need to show me a lot more next year to convince me.

 

I didn't watch much minor league ball at all so I'm really only going off the numbers. I'm certainly not a huge fan of the pick (you have to be Nelson Cruz as a hitter to be worthy of a 1st rd pick if you can't field at all), and am certainly not predicting great future success. I just think the kid got more hate than was necessary considering it was his first taste of pro ball right after having his season cut short due to covid. If his numbers are similar next year I'll be on your side with the full on doubts, but I watched him some in college and being patient at the plate with the power to hit it 420 to any part of the park gives me some tempered hope. We'll both cross our fingers and hope he becomes Nelson Cruz in a few years. Even if it isn't at all likely.

[Melissa77]

I am most excited about the Wild.

It's the only team in this city that has it's act together under GM Billy G. and coach Dean Evason. 

Seems like every other team is a mess.

[wabene]

Of course Nelson Cruz didn't become Nelson Cruz until his late 20's.

[Seth Stohs]

Tomorrow (Wednesday) on the Videos page, you'll be able to watch the Twins Spotlight interview with Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels broadcaster John Vittas. In the show's second half, we talked a lot about players that spent time there in 2021. Lots on Sabato, Julien, Severino, a bunch of the pitchers, some sleepers and more. 

He also worked with Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman when he worked for Charlotte and talked glowingly about both of them. 

[DocBauer]

I agree we could debate about a few guys on the list and where to rank them, etc, but I think it's a good list. And I will be watching all 10 of these young guys, along with everyone else in the system, lol. But a couple quick thoughts:

1] Raya grabbed my interest the moment he was selected. No definitive reason why, but I was hugely disappointed he was out this past year. He's a long ways away and hasn't pitched in a while competitively, but I'm really excited to see him in 2022.

2] I think Big 10 baseball is vastly underrated and I'm thinking Hajjar might surprise and fly through the system.

3] Young, but super talented and with something approaching a full season under his belt, despite the interruption of is year with the Olympics, does SWR make a huge move in 2022?

4] A little surprised Cavaco wasn't on this list. He's young and athletic and was actually Ft Myers best hitter the first half of 2021 before an injury. Does he jump up in 2022?

5] I recognize there is a chance Duran might move to the pen at some point. But that's also kinda true for every brilliant, hard throwing arm that runs in to any sort of difficulty. ANY kind of decent, solid 3rd pitch and he has the ability to be a ML SP, and maybe a very good one. I am very anxious to see him up with the Twins. But he has an electric arm and exciting stuff. And I would do everything I could to keep him in the rotation for as long as possible. While I HATE being patient, when you have an arm like his, and that much potential, I'd keep him in AAA as long as necessary because the final payoff could be HUGE.