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The Twins Probably Need an Outfielder. What's Available?


Nick Nelson

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Rooker gets the call in left. But our depth on the roster is Celestino and Larnach. Will the Twins be able to rotate guys like Garlick, Cave and whomever again (Kerrigan, Contreras). You need play space. Of course, if the Twins get a shortstop, you suddenly have Arraex and Gordon without a position. Miranda is still in play and won't bump Donaldson off of third totally barring a trade.

 

They can let Miranda waddle at St. Paul for most of another season. Celestino should be the everyday guy in the minors, unless someone gets injured. Larnach, too. 

 

Yes, I fear Rooker being a regular, but if he works hard in the off season, could be a big bat. The question is does he play better as a DH (then where do we play Sano) than the field. And if Sano is back on first, is Kirilloff in left?

 

The Twins have too many unanswered questions to be true contenders, no matter how many arms they add to the rotation or pen, sadly.

 

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12 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

It was also ill advised to skip out on the free agent starting pitching market, so I'm not holding my breath that they're planning on making smart decisions.

I see very little wiggle room left to spend that money wisely. I mean, from my perspective, they'd basically have to get Story and Rodon. Otherwise, they either will not spend it wisely or they won't spend it at all.

Since they skipped out on the starting pitching market, they aren't going to be chasing a World Series next year. And if they aren't chasing a World Series, than they might as well keep trying out the corner OF prospects; they have so dang many, the odds are one of them will pop.

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12 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The problem is that basically all the top free agent starters and shortstops have signed already. Meanwhile the Twins are still almost 50M short of their 2021 budget. How are they going to spend that money? Throwing it at free agent relievers would be very ill-advised, IMO. 

How do you know their 2022 budget?  Have they stated an amount?

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59 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Correct. But the Twins are currently at about $90M in committed payroll for 2022 and they haven't spent less than ~$120M since 2017, the first year this front office took over. So I'm going to hope/assume they're looking to take advantage of their flexibility and improve the roster. The idea here is to explore some different ways they could do so.

I hope you are 100% correct, for this season. In the past I feel they believed that they were in contention, but that won't be the case in 2022.

Best way to sore up that budget would be: Rodon (SP), Story (SS), Suzuki (OF) and fill in with trades...

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2 hours ago, RJA said:

I am not sure that spending money just because you have it is ever a good idea, especially if it were spent on an outfielder not named Bryant.  Let's face it, Falvey and Levine lost the office season already by not signing a significant arm.  Really ever other need pales next to the need for starting pitching, so outside of a shortstop, I wouldn't spend money on any other position UNLESS AND UNTIL the front office pulls off some trades for starting pitching.  I would wait to see if that happens, and if it does, spend the money on any holes that are created in the roster (eg. Kepler, Garver or Jeffers, Arraez, etc.) as a result of the trades.  Finally, if the Twins are willing to look at a long term contract for a position player, I would look at Correa or Story as that need is much more pressing that an outfielder.

RJA said what I was thinking when I made my previous post. 

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The problem this front office has is that it is still Ryan’s team. Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, Poloco, Arraez, Sano, and Garver are all Ryan additions. Miranda and Gordon are also Ryan’s.. In 4 years they have added Donaldson, Jeffer, Celestino, Rooker, and Lanarch with Martin as the next one up. The pitching addition to starting was Maeda and Odorizzi who is now long gone. They have added a lot of potential in Ober and Ryan but nothing else but potential. When you look at what Cleveland has done, their guys are up in a couple of years,not so with the Twins draftees. Years 5 and 6 are going to be pivotable for their careers as front office leaders. The Pohlad model might be tight with the money, but that really isn’t the problem here. A better outfielder really isn’t a concern.

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Nick, a well thought arguement and one I've shared for a while without stating such. LF is a question mark for 2022 and the 4th OF is open and debatable. But it's not to say there aren't options.

Larnach is the #1 guy so AK can concentrate more on 1B. I think Arraez can and will still play a little LF if his knees are sound. (Why he played so little there in 2021). Miranda may get some time there just to get his bat in the lineup. Yes, Rooker and Cave are still around. They could be anywhere from awful to excellent platoon based on history. And, you even have Gordon for a speedy fill-in.

I don't want to rush Celestino again, or Martin, so I'm trying to think of each as mid season options other than "break glass in case emergency" scenarios. 

So IMO, unless Kepler is moved as part of a deal, I only see a quality 4th OF being added or needed. Pillar and Herrera probably make the most sense. Again, things change if they move Kepler NOW.

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Thanks for the article. Well thought out and it's got to be tough to put out content in a lockout. Having said that, the choices in our price range - Yuck. No reason not to have Kirilloff play LF with Sano at 1B, Donaldson at 3B and all of them rotating through the DH spot with Arraez.  Larnach and Rooker start in AAA and if, and only if, one comes up big there he gets a call up. Same with Contreras. Celestino is the 4th OF. Miranda has played some OF in AAA. If he looks good in ST, he gets a shot. Same for Martin if he looks ready. By the way, we need a spot for Arraez to play. He's not horrible in LF and with Buxton in CF and Kepler in RF we can stand a "not horrible" LF. 

My point is there's no need to go out and get a mediocre vet to play LF given our internal options, and the good ones are out of our price range. Stand pat on the OF.  If we want to spend money on a position player, spend it on a SS. Better result -  spend the money on Rondon and/or trade for Montas/Bassitt/Lopez and spend the money on a contract extension .  

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12 hours ago, Old fox said:

What about Martin in left as he has more potential than Larnach. Kirilloff in left and put Donaldson at 1b, move San’o to DH., & try Miranda at 3b. 

Why not just start the whole Saints team; that is what so many here seem to want.

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2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

My point is there's no need to go out and get a mediocre vet to play LF given our internal options, and the good ones are out of our price range. Stand pat on the OF.  If we want to spend money on a position player, spend it on a SS.

Larnach and Rooker were mediocre if one want to be kind in rating them; Simmons is a top rank fielder.

Inadequate outfielders make batters salivate with anticipation, they would love to see Larnach and Rooker out there again.

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18 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm of the opinion they let it ride with Kirilloff with Larnach behind him in case of failure.

If they acquire an OF, it needs to be a defensive-minded CF to back up Buxton.

I'm in Brock's camp but IMO it isn't "if" but must find a defensive-minded CF to back up Buxton. It'd be great if we had a CF like Baddoo who can hit and play CF but we don't. Your list kinda shows this commodity is rare and is in high demand, which makes you scratch your head why they left him unprotected and go after Garlic. On your list I like probably  Marisnik  and hope he finds his swing. Otherwise try to find a trade like Reynolds (PIT) or K Marte, if you can pry them loose it'd be very expensive in players and prospects.

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You came up with a good list. As a big Eddie Rosario fan, I would rank them realistically as Castellanos, then Rosario.

And I wonder, what of Mark Contreras? He could be a good cf, lf option and a marked inprovement over Cave. I also favor a separate Billy Hamilton low cost signing as the Buxton insurance policy.

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Why play anyone who is not part of the future in a year we are not going to contend.  Why not use that time to develop Larnach or Celestino?  If they fail you could give Wallner or Martin a shot mid-season.  Dedicating a roster spot / playing time to anyone that is not a long-term difference maker makes no sense.

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12 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

He would supplant a 30-40 HR per year hitter. I like Sano at 1st.

Interesting.  Couldn't see the Twins this year on tv, so I can't speak from personal viewing.  But most of the comments/articles I read here say AK is one of the better defensive first basemen in the league while being so-so in left field.  They also indicate that Sano was well below average at first.  

With Sano at DH most of the time, you don't lose his 30+/- home runs, you just improve the overall team defense by having him on the bench.  He would play first when AK needs a day off or is banged up.

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1 hour ago, roger said:

Interesting.  Couldn't see the Twins this year on tv, so I can't speak from personal viewing.  But most of the comments/articles I read here say AK is one of the better defensive first basemen in the league while being so-so in left field.  They also indicate that Sano was well below average at first.  

With Sano at DH most of the time, you don't lose his 30+/- home runs, you just improve the overall team defense by having him on the bench.  He would play first when AK needs a day off or is banged up.

Sano was an enigma at 1b, sometimes making brilliant plays and sometimes showing his lack of experience. I think he can improve and I wouldn’t want to reserve the DH spot just for Sano as I think Jose Miranda can be in a rotation of 3b, 2b, lf and DH.

I do remember when Kirilloff first came up at minimum one extraordinary catch, diving as I recall, which was an eye opener. I think he could be a fine right fielder and will have a bat far superior to Max Kepler’s career stats.

I think the best route is a FA left fielder, Castellanos or even Eddie, Buxton in CF and Kirilloff in RF, 1b Sano. One man’s opinion ?

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9 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I just can't see any way the Twins are going to buy an OFer yet this offseason. 

That may be true but I think it would be yet another mistake in a long line of mistakes by this FO . Last year’s OF was offensively deficient by a great magnitude from a playoff caliber OF and especially a World Series caliber OF.

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30 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

That may be true but I think it would be yet another mistake in a long line of mistakes by this FO . Last year’s OF was offensively deficient by a great magnitude from a playoff caliber OF and especially a World Series caliber OF.

And even more so defensively, looking at LF and CF back up which was too much

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Suzuki intrigues me.  I think he's got a solid chance to be a good to very good MLB player.  It would be a play if the FO decided to trade Kepler for pitching.   Unless they wanted to try Kepler out in LF... kind of a crazy idea. 

I don't think they necessarily need to add an outfielder, but I don't see the season going super well if they roll with Larnach (who I actually think will end up being pretty good), Rooker, or Martin to start the season. 

I'm sure my predictions will be super off though.  They generally are.  

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6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why play anyone who is not part of the future in a year we are not going to contend.  Why not use that time to develop Larnach or Celestino?  If they fail you could give Wallner or Martin a shot mid-season.  Dedicating a roster spot / playing time to anyone that is not a long-term difference maker makes no sense.

Why don’t they just bring up last year’s entire draft class and see if they are part of future or not?

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4 hours ago, James said:

Suzuki intrigues me.   Unless they wanted to try Kepler out in LF.  

Interesting to me as well.  Unfortunately the ill-fated Japanese SS contract from a while back may be a deterrent to any such future free agents.  Didn't Kepler once say he PREFERRED playing LF?  Also that position would have his GLOVE HAND towards the LF line.  If we kept him in LF and got him out of RF and didn't bounce him to CF so that he was more comfortable in his fielding, perhaps his offense would then start to come around? 

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10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why play anyone who is not part of the future in a year we are not going to contend.  Why not use that time to develop Larnach or Celestino?  If they fail you could give Wallner or Martin a shot mid-season.  Dedicating a roster spot / playing time to anyone that is not a long-term difference maker makes no sense.

Well if you go this route, "not planning to contend" sorta becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You want really want Celestino as Buxton's top backup heading into the season? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Larnach did not show he was ready. I don't see the downside in signing someone like Dickerson to at least buy some development time.

I can understand why people would be averse to throwing money at the big names near the top of this list (even I am, I think), but I'm unsure why anyone would be opposed to targeting those on the lower half. Even if Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler are all OF starters on Opening Day, there's a severe lack of proven MLB-quality depth behind them at present.

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13 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Well if you go this route, "not planning to contend" sorta becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You want really want Celestino as Buxton's top backup heading into the season? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Larnach did not show he was ready. I don't see the downside in signing someone like Dickerson to at least buy some development time.

I can understand why people would be averse to throwing money at the big names near the top of this list (even I am, I think), but I'm unsure why anyone would be opposed to targeting those on the lower half. Even if Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler are all OF starters on Opening Day, there's a severe lack of proven MLB-quality depth behind them at present.

Your frame of reference in planning is one year.  The FO frame of reference is what is the best way to build a contender.  Many teams plan to develop a contender by investing years in development.  In this case, a very reasonable plan is to invest one year in order to be a contender for several years.  Taking development time away from players that are ready in a year where the odds of contention are very low is a really good way to never build a real contender.

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5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Your frame of reference in planning is one year.  The FO frame of reference is what is the best way to build a contender.  Many teams plan to develop a contender by investing years in development.  In this case, a very reasonable plan is to invest one year in order to be a contender for several years.  Taking development time away from players that are ready in a year where the odds of contention are very low is a really good way to never build a real contender.

I'm not sure how signing Kevin Pillar or Odubel Herrera to be a fourth OF impedes anyone's development. Especially because part of the development plan, IMO, should involve entrenching Kirilloff at 1B and trading Kepler.

They're not taking development time away from anyone by signing another OF, just like they're not blocking paths for pitching prospects by signing a couple more starters. There will be plenty of chances for everyone who deserves them in a long injury-riddled MLB season. When's the last time a good Twins prospect was "blocked"?

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5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Your frame of reference in planning is one year.  The FO frame of reference is what is the best way to build a contender.  Many teams plan to develop a contender by investing years in development.  In this case, a very reasonable plan is to invest one year in order to be a contender for several years.  Taking development time away from players that are ready in a year where the odds of contention are very low is a really good way to never build a real contender.

Minor League/Spring Training is for development or simply showing if they belong in the Big Show.

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