Twins Future Position Analysis: First Base

[Cody Christie]

Miguel Sano has served as Minnesota's primary first baseman over the last two seasons. There are some other intriguing options for 2022 and beyond.

Current First Baseman: Miguel Sano
In his seventh big-league season, Sano played over 120 games for the first time in his career. Offensively, he hit at least 28 or more home runs for the third time, and he has posted an OPS+ of 105 or higher in six of his seven seasons at the MLB level. For his career, Sano has a 119 OPS+ and an .819 OPS. Last season, he made major-league history by becoming the fastest to 1,000 career strikeouts, which broke the record by 86 games.

At first base, Sano is one of the worst defenders in baseball. In 2021, he posted a -5.6 SDI, and only Boston's Bobby Dalbec ranked lower than him among AL first basemen. With Nelson Cruz gone, it seems likely for Minnesota to shift to a rotational system at DH, which includes Sano getting more time at that position.

40-Man Roster Options
Last season, the Twins used three different players at first base besides Sano. Alex Kirilloff and Mitch Garver both seem like logical options to get more reps at first base. Kirilloff is likely the Twins' long-term solution at first base as he should be a cornerstone of the team's line-up for years to come. In fact, Kirilloff ranked as the third-best defensive first baseman through the middle of last season. If Garver hits like last season, the Twins need him in the line-up more often, and playing him at first base allows that to happen.  

On the Farm Options
Not all of the players listed below are guaranteed to be on the team's roster at the start of next season. Still, it offers some insight into the organization's first base depth. Minnesota has multiple first base options populating the rosters in the upper minors.

The Twins signed Curtis Terry to a minor league deal in November. He'll play at Triple-A. Last season, he made his big-league debut with the Rangers and went 4-for-45 with two doubles. He has posted an OPS of .882 or higher in his last three minor league seasons while averaging over 20 home runs per season. Besides Terry, Minnesota also has a variety of catchers in the high minors that see some time at first base, including some names below. 

There is a trio of first base options at Double-A. Roy Morales signed out of independent baseball in March 2021, and last year he posted a .379 OPS but didn't have much power. Gabe Snyder was a 21st round pick back in 2018, and he was limited to 46 games last season as he dealt with a broken hamate. Alex Isola, a 22-year-old, split time between catcher and first base at High-A. He was younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and he hit .243/.342/.425 with 32 extra-base hits in 98 games. 

Aaron Sabato is probably the most highly-regarded prospect among the first base prospects because he was a former first-round pick. He struggled to start the year in his professional debut. He had just a .679 OPS at the end of June. In his final 59 games, however, he posted a .877 OPS with 17 home runs and ten doubles while also being promoted to High-A. He only played 22 games in Cedar Rapids, so he seems likely to start at that level. 

Like Sabato, Christian Encarnacion-Strand is another college masher with a lot of pop in his bat. Minnesota selected him in the fourth round of the 2021 MLB Draft, and he made his debut at Low-A. In 22 games, he hit .391/.424/.598 (1.022) with eight extra-base hits. These totals are very similar to what he produced at Oklahoma State, so he will be a player to watch in the years to come. 

Overall, Minnesota may have a new first baseman at the MLB level with a few prospects to watch during the 2022 campaign. What do you think about the organization's depth at first base? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
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[Doctor Gast]

I think Larnach has some 1B experience also. I've heard that his arm has much to be desired and his defense isn't that great so a look at 1B is a possibility. Rooker is in that same boat.

[wsnydes]

I think it's time to shift Sano to DH and make room for Kirilloff at 1B.  My understanding is that he's very good defensively there as well.  Perhaps his best position.  That would also take a little pressure off the logjam that is corner outfield.  

[Datwinsdude]

I think we would be foolish not to move Sano into the DH slot for 80% of his playing time with Alex Kirilloff taking the majority of the starts at first base.  It gives us a dramatic improvement in defense at the position and lets Sano concentrate on what we really need him for,  anchoring the middle of the lineup and cutting down on his strikeouts.  I know it is a fairly small major league sample size but Kirilloff, when healthy, has shown that he wields a bat that we need to have in the lineup everyday.  We can rotate Garver through the first base and DH spots when Sano or Kirilloff need a day off.  Burn Sanos glove.  We don't need to field the worst first baseman in the American league any more.      

[mikelink45]

Sano has been a conundrum since he first arrived.  I am so sorry he is in the launch era age - if he cared more about hits and OBP he would be so much more valuable 

[chpettit19]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Sano has been a conundrum since he first arrived.  I am so sorry he is in the launch era age - if he cared more about hits and OBP he would be so much more valuable 

It's hard to argue Sano cares much about base hits, but he was #30 in all of baseball in walk rate last year (among qualified hitters). He's a very patient hitter and takes a ton of walks.

[DJL44]

In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.

[Karbo]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.

I wonder how JD would feel about that. I like the idea though. Maybe some sort of a rotation of him and Sano to keep JD off his legs more?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.

Why not put Miranda at 1B? Donaldson isn't the defender he used to be, but I'd think he's still better than Miranda.

[Minny505]

As of this moment, a I expect a Garver/Donaldson/Sano rotation at DH...with a pinch of Arraez.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Why not put Miranda at 1B? Donaldson isn't the defender he used to be, but I'd think he's still better than Miranda.

They might be about even now but a year from now Donaldson is likely to be worse. Also, 1B is going to be less wear and tear for Donaldson.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

In 2022 Sano would be my full time DH and Josh Donaldson would be my full time 1B. Kirilloff can play LF with Miranda at 3B.

I have not considered this arrangement. Has Donaldson ever played 1B? 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They might be about even now but a year from now Donaldson is likely to be worse. Also, 1B is going to be less wear and tear for Donaldson.

In a year I expect Sano to be gone and you can move Donaldson to fulltime DH then, but for this year I don't know why you'd move Donaldson when Miranda was playing 1B last year. According to baseball reference JD has started 1 game in his entire major league career (popped over there in the middle of a game a couple other times). Don't know why you'd move him for a guy that isn't an upgrade at 3B and who played 1B plenty just last year. And I'm not sure 1B is much of a wear and tear saver from 3B. He still has cut duties, has to run to the bag every ground ball, has to bounce off the bag on the pitch when holding a guy on first, has to trail runners to second on doubles, and still has to field grounders. Not sure where the big saving of his legs comes in with a shift across the diamond.

I think we're likely to see Kirilloff and Miranda moved around a bit (when Miranda is in the bigs, no guarantee he's even in Minneapolis the whole year), and Sano and JD will split time at DH. Sano has been pretty clear in the past that he isn't comfortable as a DH and wants to play in the field to keep him in the rhythm of the game. It then comes down to balancing how much being in the field improves his hitting compared to how much his defense hurts the team. I'm guessing JD sees plenty of DH starts this year which would allow Arraez and Miranda to get plenty of 3B starts.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I have not considered this arrangement. Has Donaldson ever played 1B? 

Baseball reference has him at 18 big league innings at 1B. In the minors in 2008 he played 210 innings at 1B. 32 in 2009. And 14 combined in 2010 and 2011.

[roger]

Kirilloff is one of the three best defensive first basemen in the league?  Having not watched many games last year, is surprising for me...the good kind.  If he is that good at first, average in the outfield and Sano is not good at first, easy decision.

Add the potential of AK's bat and it seems logical that he is in the lineup at first every game except when injured or needing a day off.  Does Sano get the nod on those days?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Sano has been pretty clear in the past that he isn't comfortable as a DH and wants to play in the field to keep him in the rhythm of the game.

If he wants to play in the field he needs to start doing it well enough to help the team. He's the worst fielding first baseman on the roster.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If he wants to play in the field he needs to start doing it well enough to help the team. He's the worst fielding first baseman on the roster.

That's why I said it's a balance between how much his fielding hurts and how much better of a hitter he is when playing the field. If being a DH only makes him a 90 OPS+ hitter instead of a 110 OPS+ hitter does that outweigh his defense? A 110 OPS+ hitter isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. A 90 OPS+ hitter REALLY isn't good enough to take up a roster spot only to DH. So are you cutting him and eating his contract? Trading him? Wasting a roster spot on an unusable player?

My point is that there's way more that goes into decisions than "DH Sano, Donaldson to first, Miranda at third." It's well documented that some guys simply can't DH. They don't have what it takes to sit around for 3+ hours and lock in for their 4 trips to the plate and perform night after night. If Sano is one of those people it doesn't just make him the automatic first baseman, but you can't just ignore it, either. Moving Donaldson to a position he hasn't played consistently in over a decade isn't just an automatic smooth transition.

Is Sano's defense at first bad enough to nullify a 20 point swing in OPS+? 10 point swing? That's the question. The idea that every fielder is going to be a positive at their position isn't realistic. The question is how bad can you be before it outweighs the offense you provide. Same question in reverse with Simmons at SS. How bad can his hitting be before it nullifies the defense he provides?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Is Sano's defense at first bad enough to nullify a 20 point swing in OPS+? 10 point swing? That's the question. The idea that every fielder is going to be a positive at their position isn't realistic. The question is how bad can you be before it outweighs the offense you provide. Same question in reverse with Simmons at SS. How bad can his hitting be before it nullifies the defense he provides?

Pretty much, yeah. I put Sano at DH and if he's terrible by June I cut him. There's only one year left on the deal. If Sano can't DH this will be his last season in the big leagues.

[ashbury]

14 hours ago, Karbo said:

I wonder how JD would feel about that. I like the idea though. Maybe some sort of a rotation of him and Sano to keep JD off his legs more?

I seem to remember Donaldson injuring himself more on the basepaths than playing defense but that may be selective based on Opening Day.