The Twins NEED a Shortstop

[Wax off]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Simmons, Simmons, he's our man, if he can't do it NOBODY can.?

Twins better sign him as soon as they can before the FA pool dries up!

[ashbury]

52 minutes ago, Wax off said:

Twins better sign him as soon as they can before the FA pool dries up!

No further drying up will occur during the lockout.

[MABB1959]

On 12/4/2021 at 5:15 PM, AceWrigley said:

2014 - Nick Gordon - picked 5th - 16th in total WAR (Baseball Ref)

2015 - Tyler Jay - picked 6th - Pfffft!

2016 - Alex Kirilloff - picked 15th - 11th in total WAR

2017 - Royce Lewis - picked 1st - nothing so far

2018 - Trevor Larnach - picked 20th - 9th in total WAR

2019 - Keoni Cavaco - picked 13th - only Andrew Vaughn & Alex Manoah have appeared in MLB

2020 - Aaron Sabato - picked 27th - only Garrett Crochet & Reid Detmers have appeared in MLB

2021 - Chase Petty - picked 26th - No one from this draft has appeared in MLB

The total WAR listed above is ranked by players from that year's 1st round draft. Nick Gordon, picked 5th,  has 15 1st round picks from the 2014 draft who have produced more total WAR than he did. Only 64% of those drafted 1st round 2014-2018 have a positive WAR.

This is just a small, limited analysis. I'm sure you could develop a Bill James style algorithm to project an estimate career WAR for minor league players and keep or trade accordingly. From quick glance here I'd say that draft picks might serve better as trade capital than not.

Sorry the numbers hurt my head.  I wasn't clear but can't any of SS's drafted in the first round be ready?  Why draft them otherwise.   I would give Gordon this whole year and if he can't hack it move to Lewis.  If he can't hack it move to the next.  If none of them can make it something is seriously wrong with our scouts!  

[tony&rodney]

21 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

it would be silly of them to acquire a high-level free agent shortstop when resources are badly needed to shore up other areas of the roster. It makes sense to me to use a placeholder for one year,

This makes sense if the "resources" referred to limit the Twins to a budget of $100 M. A number of comments have seen a contract for Story as limiting the team's options and/or restricting a future for Lewis/Martin. This is confusing to me unless those making these arguments are thinking the budget is near $100 M. I totally understand the reticence if $100 M is the team limit. The argument concerning a block for Lewis/Martin makes little sense. No team ever blocks a superior player; there is always room in any lineup for a player who displays the skills. Again, if those who oppose any signing of Story believe he is not a viable starting shortstop, then i can accept their point. It never hurts to have too much talent, but some will question whether Story is worthwhile at any price. The entire decision boils down to a judgment on talent and then a knowledge of  the actual budget ceiling. No money = no interest or there is money but the talent is not worthy. In any event, we wait.

[Kipp35]

Lets not forget, along with a SS being key, we are going to need a solid CF to play the 100-120 games that Buxton will miss each year. We're talking big money for position players!

[Kipp35]

On 12/4/2021 at 2:50 PM, tony&rodney said:

The roster was done to show a couple of givens: 1) any budget to $120 M makes the Twins a possible contender; 2) Story fits on that budget; 3) there is room to add three pitchers in trades; and 4) to question whether the actual budget is really going to be near $95-105 M.

I purposely left the pitching roster unfilled (names were inserted as minimum salaries) because it shows that a contending team can add three pitchers and what a team (with rookies only starting pitching) looking to win 70-75 games would look like.

There are a number of very skeptical, pessimistic, sarcastic, and negative Twins fans who mock attempts by those who believe the team can be competitive in 2022. I don't know, perhaps it is time to end all discussions about the Twins and the potential 2022 rosters. MLB is locked out and I get those who want to lock out baseball, but lifetime fans keep dragging their hopes along.

I am with you as a lifetime Twins fan. But, being a lifetime Twins fan has proved to me that as long as the Pohlad's own this team, we will be working with coupons in regards to signing FA's. We constantly attempt to get everyone at a 'deal' and to do that means we wait until all the other teams with money take who they want and we get what's left. I have gone on record that the Buxton signing will go down as one of the top 5 worst decisions the Twins have ever made, but it's done, we have to figure out what we can do with what we have left. I would say fans should not hold their collective breaths for a competitive team in 2022, but we should look for signs that we are improving.

[Wax off]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

No further drying up will occur during the lockout.

"as soon as they can"

[Wax off]

3 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

I have gone on record that the Buxton signing will go down as one of the top 5 worst decisions the Twins have ever made, but it's done, we have to figure out what we can do with what we have left.

How do you not like this contract? You have any idea what you get for 15m on the open market? Inflation adjusted, this is about the level of compensation for Ricky Nolasco.

If you don't like this signing, you're not gonna like any.

[Shaitan]

I'd argue that SS, or OF, are their deepest positions in the minors.

I'm fine with a short-term solution. And, while unpopular, I'm also fine with Polanco as that short-term solution.

I'm more concerned about a Plan B at catcher. Jeffers is young and could go either way. Not sold on Garver's long-term success. And he had a gruesome injury last year (which can't help). There are a million stopgaps at SS. There are only AAAA level stopgaps at C.

[Kipp35]

23 hours ago, Wax off said:

How do you not like this contract? You have any idea what you get for 15m on the open market? Inflation adjusted, this is about the level of compensation for Ricky Nolasco.

If you don't like this signing, you're not gonna like any.

Because, for $15mm the St. Paul Saints are going to have a heck of a CF'er for rehab assignments, but that doesn't help the Twins. So, $15mm to Buxton and what to another guy to play 100-120 games per season in his absence?

Maybe in the next seven years we get one (1) full season from him; try to remember he has played over 100 games (140 in 2017) just once in the past seven years! If he would have been paid $15mm this couple of years, he would have made:

2021 = $245,901.64 per game

2020 = $250,000 (60 games, played in 65%)

2019 = $172,413.79 per game... maybe a deal? Still only 87 games.

2018 = $535,714.29 per game

Not sure about you, but that is not good economics for a 'small market' team in the middle of rebuilding. Someone has to play that position in his absence. I also hate the idea of having him DH. That is NOT why he was given this contract, it was supposed to be due to his ability as a five tool player.

The past is our only way of judging what the future will bring. The past seven years shows a guy with HUGE potential, if not for.... We are paying non-Twins money for a player that is projected (based on past seven years) of playing in just 48% of games. That is less than half!

That money could have gone toward pitching or to someone with less "potential" but far more production having played in far more games over the past seven years.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

That money could have gone toward pitching

Ok, you don't like Buxton or his new contract. Ok, no problem. Now, I think you need to specifically tell the readers of this post what you believe the team's budget will be for 2022. Will you use $75 M? $100 M? $150 M? What do you think? Subsequently,  show us what players, specifically, make up  your roster. Who exactly will you sign? This will help others, like myself, try to understand your views. Until you put forth a specific roster it is really hard to see your point. Perhaps the Twins go with a $80 million or lower roster next year and beyond and then everyone else who believes in Buxton would need to reconsider how their rosters were composed. Put your roster out for us.

[Kipp35]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok, you don't like Buxton or his new contract. Ok, no problem. Now, I think you need to specifically tell the readers of this post what you believe the team's budget will be for 2022. Will you use $75 M? $100 M? $150 M? What do you think? Subsequently,  show us what players, specifically, make up  your roster. Who exactly will you sign? This will help others, like myself, try to understand your views. Until you put forth a specific roster it is really hard to see your point. Perhaps the Twins go with a $80 million or lower roster next year and beyond and then everyone else who believes in Buxton would need to reconsider how their rosters were composed. Put your roster out for us.

No problem, thanks for the opportunity. And again, all of this is just my opinion and I in no way believe anyone will listen to anything I have to say, (opinions and buttholes; everyone has them) but here goes:

First, the budget is going to depend greatly on what the floor of the cap is decided during the CBA. But, I believe strongly the Twins will, and should stay pretty close to that base for 2022, because I feel we are not just one or two pieces away from a championship... we need to rebuild.

As of now, the Twins are sitting at roughly $74.5mm. I am not sure what that base will need to be for 2022, but if it is $80 as many have projected, I would say the Twins will/should do very little more going forward aside from trading. I have commented that I like the trade suggestions on this site with the Mets. But, I would say we move into 2022 (rebuilding) by seeing what we have in the minors before we leverage too much capital at aging players. Rodon would make some sense if the contract could factor in protections for injuries he is already know for with incentives. We could have him through the rebuild as an anchor of the rotation, if healthy.

1B-Sano, 2B-Polonco/Arraez, SS-Lewis/Martin, 3B-Donaldson/Miranda, C-Garver/Jeffers

LF-Kirlloff/Larnach, CF-Buxton/Martin/Celestino, RF-Kepler/Rooker

SP-Bundy/Balazovic/Rodon*/Jax/Ober/Woods-Richardson/Canterino

BP-Alcala/Cotton/Duran(SP)/Enlow/Moran/Strotman/Thielbar/Thorpe/Duffy/Dobnak

This is without trades, which is the only way I would see the Twins brining in talent. This way, the Twins would not be heavily leveraged (except for Buxton and Donaldson and the later should be dealt) going into 2023. They would then be able to hit FA early and hard to fill true holes on the team with actual money in reserves to do so.

If we sign Trevor Story and/or Rodon, it is not like those two are going to plug into this team and all of a sudden catapult us into the playoffs and past the Yankees... or anyone in our own division.

If the floor established by the CBA is closer to $110-120mm, I would say let's go after both Story and Rodon, but would still shy away from taking on bad contracts, unless we can get a haul. As an example, I am thinking of a lot of Toronto's farm system (Groshans and Lopez) or Seattle's young crop of studs like Handcock, Rodriguez and Williamson. If they want us to take on bad deals, then they need to give us players that make us believe this is a marriage and not a one night stand. Story can play a lot more than SS and could be a huge asset as we rebuild, but not unless the Twins have to spend that money. I would still like to see trade with the Mets and even the A's at that point, but still feel we would be renting the A's pitchers for a rebuilding year, and that makes no sense.

I hope this answers your ask about what my vision is of the team. It changes a lot after this season when we can really know what we have spent years "developing" in our farm system. At some point these players need to **** or get off the pot. We keep hearing how this player or that player is SO close, but we need to wait. Now is the time to see if they really are; ready, close or, not at all...

 

[RpR]

Seager retired.