Twins Sign RHP Dylan Bundy

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, Dman said:

Totally agree on Vallimont and Jax.  Jax did well the first time through lineups has a good pitch mix and decent control.  He has a chance to succeed in the pen.  Vallimont doesn't have enough control to be a starter and at this point appears to be who he is.  Again the pen makes the most sense as he has a great K rate and his stuff should play up in the pen.  If he gains control he could be an elite pen arm.  I just don't see him as a starter.

I like Strotman as a potential starter better than you at least at this time.  He has a solid mix and I don't know if you caught him on MiLB at all but a smooth delivery.  Not sure why he gives up so much contact and doesn't miss enough bats but he feels like a tweek away from being ready to me.  But to your point yes he wouldn't be a bad pen arm either and likely a good one if he can find a way to miss more bats.

 

I agree Strotman has the best shot of those three.  The one I don't know what to make of is Duran.  It would not be the end of the world if he ended up being a back of the BP arm but we really need that guy to live up to his potential.  

What about Canterino?  Will we see him at the ML level this year?

[LastOnePicked]

11 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

1  ___________

2 Pineda?

3 Bundy

4 Ober

5 Ryan

6 Dobnak

The starkness of this hits pretty hard. No matter who they realistically slot into that #1 spot at this point, that's not a rotation that can compete for anything but an awfully high draft pick for the team the following year.

Love that they extended Buxton, but I don't see the urgency here to get the most out of his prime.

[Mike Sixel]

Which prospects do people think will start in MN day 1?

Because they 100% aren't contending with that idea, not with the ones that have pitched in MN before.

Leading one to wonder what they plan to do with some of the veteran hitters, who are not worth anything next year if they aren't contending.....

I mean, if the plan is to use Jax and Thorpe and ?.......then shouldn't part of the plan to be to trade veterans for more prospects? 

[Muppet]

Maybe Buxton can throw a strike from center field. Can Buxton alone take the twins to the playoffs? Too bad they DFA'd their best performing pitcher (Astudillo). 

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree Strotman has the best shot of those three.  The one I don't know what to make of is Duran.  It would not be the end of the world if he ended up being a back of the BP arm but we really need that guy to live up to his potential.  

What about Canterino?  Will we see him at the ML level this year?

I am really high on Canterino but am guessing that with so few innings last year and not on the 40 man that he likely doesn't make a difference this year.  If he dominates like he has been they could bring him up and use him out of the pen but seems like a long shot.

Duran is scary isn't he?  It feels like maybe that arm won't hold up to a starters load. Also he has been more hittable than I would like to see.  This is another big year for him and they could try and work him out of the MLB pen if he looks good but unlikely given so few innings last year and likely protecting his arm.

I have Strotman all over the place from starter to reliever to not making it all.  I just really like what I saw on the screen and hope he develops.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I live in LA. Bundy was the Second Coming in 2020, a number two at the bottom of the bowl in 2021. Worth a shot, particularly on that contract. 

We've all identified the same problem As one of 3 trades/FA signings where the other 2 are better, not a bad thing to do. As the only one, terrible off season. The off season has a ways to go . We're just going to have to wait this out. No way to make a fair evaluation or decision until February. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I live in LA. Bundy was the Second Coming in 2020, a number two at the bottom of the bowl in 2021. Worth a shot, particularly on that contract. 

We've all identified the same problem As one of 3 trades/FA signings where the other 2 are better, not a bad thing to do. As the only one, terrible off season. The off season has a ways to go . We're just going to have to wait this out. No way to make a fair evaluation or decision until February. 

Wouldn't it be better to sign players, than trade good or great prospects for them? For a team that insists that building with prospects is the best way to win?

There aren't good starters left (Rondon, I guess). That's it, right?

 

I think this is a clear sign they have no intention to compete this coming year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cross-posting from the forum thread:

This is a cheap contract, and Bundy still has some upside. But outside of 11 starts in 2020, he's never been much better than average by ERA or ERA predictors:

#	Season	Name	Team	G	GS	IP	ERA-	FIP-	xFIP-	K%	BB%	HR/FB
1	2016	Dylan Bundy	BAL	36	14	109.2	95	107	109	21.9%	8.9%	13.3%
2	2017	Dylan Bundy	BAL	28	28	169.2	95	96	109	21.8%	7.3%	11.5%
3	2018	Dylan Bundy	BAL	31	31	171.2	128	117	101	24.5%	7.2%	17.8%
4	2019	Dylan Bundy	BAL	30	30	161.2	102	97	100	23.1%	8.3%	16.4%
5	2020	Dylan Bundy	LAA	11	11	65.2	74	65	84	27.0%	6.4%	8.2%
6	2021	Dylan Bundy	LAA	23	19	90.2	139	126	109	21.2%	8.6%	19.2%

Also worth noting that, just like how Maeda exclusively faced bottom-third offenses in 2020 due to the all-central division schedule, Bundy managed to load up on weaker hitting opponents in 2020 too:

SEA 3
OAK 3
TEX 2
ARI 1
SFG 1
HOU 1

And this is 2020, when SFG and HOU were both mediocre in the regular season. That's 9 of his 11 starts vs below average run scoring teams; 10 of 11 vs below average HR hitting teams. Bundy completely missed the two best west division teams (Dodgers and Padres) and Colorado / Coors Field.

So I'd guess the realistic upside here is average, which is still plenty valuable even on the $11 mil team option, if Bundy manages to achieve it -- but still leaves something to be desired at the top of the rotation.

[jmlease1]

58 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They need to come up with a couple BP guys too with Rodgers and Duffey being free agents at the end of the year.  They will have the budget to keep them if that makes sense but it also makes sense they try to determine which prospects start and who should be transitioned to the BP.  Vallimont and Strotman seemed destined for the BP to me and if Jax has any chance, it seems like it would be out of the BP.  Let's hope the pitching prospects stay healthy this year.  They have enough guys near ready that it would make sense to give a couple of them a look out of the BP.

Meh, I'm less worried about the bullpen, and the fact that Rogers and Duffey are FA at the end of the season is a non-issue to me for this season. A bullpen of Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Cotton, Moran, and Jax is a pretty good start. Bring back Minaya at a good price and find another projectable RHP to drop in there and we're looking at what should be a solid bullpen, but also one where there are very few scholarships and guys who aren't performing can be sent back to AAA or cut as they dig for more guys who can make it work. (this is basically the rays strategy every year, and considering how fungible 2/3 of relievers are, it makes a lot of sense)

But for any bullpen to survive, they'll need innings from the starters and we're nowhere near that yet. If we make a good trade for one of Oakland/Cincinatti/Arizona's quality starters, I'm going to feel a lot better about taking a flyer on Dylan Bundy.

[Dman]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which prospects do people think will start in MN day 1?

Because they 100% aren't contending with that idea, not with the ones that have pitched in MN before.

Leading one to wonder what they plan to do with some of the veteran hitters, who are not worth anything next year if they aren't contending.....

I mean, if the plan is to use Jax and Thorpe and ?.......then shouldn't part of the plan to be to trade veterans for more prospects? 

I think Winder has a chance depending on what they do in free agency other than him for pitchers pretty much no one.  I think it will be last year all over again pretty much.  Enough vets to cover the start of the season and as they get injured or fail then fill in from there.  I expect it will fail just as it did last year and then the younger players will get their chance. If the guys they get perform well then great we should have decent team but I am not banking on that.

They are already counting on two young (rookie) pitchers (Ober and Ryan)  Jax has a shot to make the pen.  Winder could end up in the mix with a good spring and or AAA dominance.  Moran might have a shot at pen spot or injury replacement.  Same with Sands.  They might not start the season with those guys but they are likely an injury away from being called up. So the rotation likely looks young already.  They have Strotman, Balazovich and maybe SWR in the wings as well if they start off well in AAA they could be callups.  Duran, Vallimont, Canterino, Moran could all be pen options if needed.  There are a lot of young (rookie) guys they could funnel through IMO depending on how they perform this year.

Given how the FA pitching market shook out I don't see what the Twins can do to meaningfully improve their pitching other than depend on some younger talent or work out a trade. That is just my opinion though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

53 minutes ago, Dman said:

Jax did well the first time through lineups has a good pitch mix and decent control.  He has a chance to succeed in the pen.

I looked into this before, and Jax's "first time through the order" success was likely overrated.

[Dman]

4 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I looked into this before, and Jax's "first time through the order" success was likely overrated.

Yeah I think I got that notion on this board.  I don't know then he likely has quite a hill to climb to make it.  We'll see if he stays on the 40 man.

[KFEY93]

16 hours ago, Shs_2 said:

I did not even know he was a FA.  This is a perfectly acceptable move.

I'd rather have Bundy for 5 million

Than Robbie Ray for 115

Or Gausman for 110+

And even Stroman w/ Cubbies we'll see about the money (which I'm guessing is 60 million or more)

I mean the Mets W/ Mad Max might spend 250 million this year!!

Sounds like you would rather have losses than wins as well. Because thats what you will get with being content with signings like these and thinking its good enough. 

[Thegrin]

I like that he is only 29 (If he stays healthy). Will he be healthy enough to have a full Spring Training?

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, Thegrin said:

 Will he be healthy enough to have a full Spring Training?

With the lockout I wouldn't buy any Spring Training tickets

[dex8425]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Unfortunately the Twins should also be included in that group.

You could make that argument, but the Twins are on a different tier. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda are better than any starters those two teams have developed in the recent past. Despite having a huge payroll, Ohtani was the Angels only decent starter last year and the only one who threw over 100 innings. Their recent "ace" is Andrew Heaney. The orioles have...John Means. They didn't get much out of Bundy, Gausman or Cobb. Cobb was really good with the Rays. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Not going to lie, I'm disappointed and basically PO'd at this point!

The market has been moving! There were SEVERAL solid, quality FA SP available without breaking the bank in any way. And the FO let them all pass. I laid out an option where the FO could have been "inventive" with Ray and front load his deal, including an opt out. And they could have done the exact same thing with Stroman, which the Cubs just did! Grrr! And I'm sorry, but I'd easily pick the Twins over the Cubs as being a legitimate playoff contender the next 2yrs. 

I am disappointed and unhappy, perplexed, and PO'd at this point.

BUT...in regard to Bundy exclusively, I will say I was intrigued to sign him as a #3 option instead of Pineda. He has pitched for nothing but bad, losing teams. He's had a strange career where he's generally been good about every other year. A couple years ago he was seen as a guy who needed to be "rescued" from Baltimore to reach his potential. And after a good 2020, now he's an also-ran. I think he's worth a cheap flier to be a solid #3, but I don't know that the #2 potential he has flashed, and many thought he could be, is viable at this point. It would take a major turnaround to be that guy many thought he could be a couple seasons ago.

MAYBE we get lucky. I don't think luck and hope is how you build a staff to compete in 2022.

So what now? We re-sign Pineda and make a trade of ML and milb talent to bring in a quality arm to front the rotation and hope for the best with a bullpen that has a chance to be good with a smart addition or two? Even with a good lineup, is that enough?

The more you trade away, the less you establish the "continuous competition" idea preached by the FO. I've never asked, and few of us ever have asked, that the Twins just blow up payroll. But I, and most of us I think, have just asked to just spend to an acceptable delta of payroll. 

The FO had a chance to just add a couple good arms on "decent"  terms to remain competitive while waiting for the number of arms in the system to reach their potential. 

So are we really NOT re,-tooling? Are we actually re-building for 2023 and beyond? Then just admit it. 

I've been an advocate for our FO in so many ways, but I'm confused and frustrated right now with their approach. There is too much talent on the ML roster right now, and too much coming up, to just "give up" for 2022. 

I will wait to fully chastise until I see what moves take place before ST actually takes place. Right now, I'm confused and losing faith.

Het Doc, Cheer up. The FO signed Buck. for 7 years. With the pitching staff the Twins have assembled so far, think of all the spectacular catches we will be able to watch Buck make, as baseballs are being crushed all over the Twins outfield.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How is it ever good to get 5 WAR for $110M?  We could have got Robbie Ray for an extra $5M.

Not 5 million more than Bundy got.

I bet you did not laugh.

You might have soften Stroman for a better offer than the Cubs, you might not have.  Stroman on a 3 year deal is a great team deal. I don’t know what is left on the Cubs to make it an attractive place to play

[tvagle]

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He has a much better pitcher name than Homer Bailey. 
 

Trying to decide if he’s more similar to Ted or Al though.

Great signing from a marketing perspective for Team Twins:

If, as so many have mentioned, this is the same joke told over and over and over again they can play "You can call me Al" when he comes into games

If he slays it on the hill maybe the Twins channel their inner Grandpa Veeck with "An Evening with Ted" promotion

[yeahyabetcha]

18 hours ago, TheMatt said:

This is a good March signing. Not so good considering Rodon is possibly the best starter left available 

How much did Rodon make last year?

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I live in LA. Bundy was the Second Coming in 2020, a number two at the bottom of the bowl in 2021. Worth a shot, particularly on that contract. 

 

His emergence in 2020 was from a mere 11 starts. Somehow, five of those starts were against the absolutely dreadful 2020 Mariners and Rangers lineups.

With a 90 MPH fastball, I'm seeing much less upside with Bundy.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Is that a serious question? Do you really think that was what that post was about?

I don’t think the person thought much of the contracts of Ray and Gausman. The only reason not to like the contracts is that you do not think they will live up to them and drag the team down.  A signing of Ray or Gausman would be to return the Twins to the glory of the years prior to a down year. The Jordan Zimmerman comparison is not a bad one

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, old nurse said:

I don’t think the person thought much of the contracts of Ray and Gausman. The only reason not to like the contracts is that you do not think they will live up to them and drag the team down.  A signing of Ray or Gausman would be to return the Twins to the glory of the years prior to a down year. The Jordan Zimmerman comparison is not a bad one

It's not a bad comparison as far as contracts go, but Zimmerman was a pitch-to-contact guy, they are almost always less reliable in the long run, particularly when they change teams and your fielders, defensive strategy and home ballpark changes.

Not to say Gausman and Ray won't bust, but strikeouts tend to provide more consistent results as they are independent of most outside factors.

[old nurse]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

His emergence in 2020 was from a mere 11 starts. Somehow, five of those starts were against the absolutely dreadful 2020 Mariners and Rangers lineups.

With a 90 MPH fastball, I'm seeing much less upside with Bundy.

Yet in the 2020 season his best games were against Oakland and Houston, the best teams of the made up division

[KirbyDome89]

48 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

You could make that argument, but the Twins are on a different tier. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Maeda are better than any starters those two teams have developed in the recent past. Despite having a huge payroll, Ohtani was the Angels only decent starter last year and the only one who threw over 100 innings. Their recent "ace" is Andrew Heaney. The orioles have...John Means. They didn't get much out of Bundy, Gausman or Cobb. Cobb was really good with the Rays. 

Odorizzi and Maeda weren't developed by the Twins. Berrios for sure was a success, but who did he snatch that title from? Liriano maybe? That was 10 years ago. Santana was 20 years ago. We're not that far removed from the Twins teams in the mid 2010s that could barely field two ML caliber pitchers, and right now the outlook isn't exactly roses either. They've had some success with FA starters (very little with the current FO) but even those were very short lived. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If we venture back a few years to the last time we had a bunch of SPs get 5 years deals (2016)  the results suggest we should at least be aware of the highly volatile production of free agent SPs.    

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – WAR 4.4 / 1.5 / 2.4 / 2.3 / 0 / .7 an average of 1.88 total and 1.38 after the 1st year.

Zack Greinke – Has been great.

The next 3 SPs in AAV included Johnny Cueto / Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Johnny Cueto had a great first year and produced an average of 1 WAR for the final 5 years.  Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019 and below replacement level in his final year. They had two good years total between the three of them.    

As an aside, Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / and Justin Upton were the top AAV position players.  They were not any better.

We only have to venture back 1 year to see the volatile production of single year signings, and we don't need to time travel at all to see the results of the continued use of that strategy.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which prospects do people think will start in MN day 1?

Because they 100% aren't contending with that idea, not with the ones that have pitched in MN before.

Leading one to wonder what they plan to do with some of the veteran hitters, who are not worth anything next year if they aren't contending.....

I mean, if the plan is to use Jax and Thorpe and ?.......then shouldn't part of the plan to be to trade veterans for more prospects? 

I posted something similar in a thread earlier in the year, but I don't think the prospect reinforcements are as strong as some believe, at least for this season. Duran and Canterino barely pitched last year and each battled elbow injuries. Surgery isn't guaranteed, but those types of injuries usually lead to intervention. Winder's shoulder issues to end the year could fall under the same category, or maybe it just was fatigue (still not great considering he only threw 72 innings.) They had to shut SWR down, not for injury, but because he was pitching so poorly. That leaves Balazovic. 

Add to this the fact that both Ryan and Ober threw just over 100 innings last year. Neither of them, even if healthy, is going to be able to pitch a full season, unless they're making 4 inning starts. Good luck constructing a bullpen capable of absorbing that on top of the occasional short starts from whoever else is added into the starting mix. 

If they're putting a bulk of their eggs in the prospect basket they're 100% throwing away the season. Hell, I'd argue that eschewing affordable arms in FA, and barring some big trade(s) for a front line arm this winter they're tossing away more than just this year. Maybe the prospect "luck," completely turns around, but it seems like an unnecessary amount of risk to take on. 

[Major League Ready]

23 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

We only have to venture back 1 year to see the volatile production of single year signings, and we don't need to time travel at all to see the results of the continued use of that strategy.

I didn't say anything about 1 year contracts.  I simply pointed out that the 5 year deals have been horrible outside of the first year and a mixed bag even in the first year.  I am not even saying we should not do them ... just that in the Cueto / Zimmerman type cases it hurts the team badly for 3 or 4 years.  

BTW ... Ray and Gausman were 1 year deals and there have many 1 or 2 year deals (Cruz) that have been fantastic.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Meh, I'm less worried about the bullpen, and the fact that Rogers and Duffey are FA at the end of the season is a non-issue to me for this season. A bullpen of Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Cotton, Moran, and Jax is a pretty good start. Bring back Minaya at a good price and find another projectable RHP to drop in there and we're looking at what should be a solid bullpen, but also one where there are very few scholarships and guys who aren't performing can be sent back to AAA or cut as they dig for more guys who can make it work. (this is basically the rays strategy every year, and considering how fungible 2/3 of relievers are, it makes a lot of sense)

But for any bullpen to survive, they'll need innings from the starters and we're nowhere near that yet. If we make a good trade for one of Oakland/Cincinatti/Arizona's quality starters, I'm going to feel a lot better about taking a flyer on Dylan Bundy.

My comments were all in the context of what they need to do over the course of this season to have a legit shot at fielding a contender next year.  I don't believe and never did believe that was realistic.  Anything is possible in baseball but the odds were very much against it.  I am not interested in pursuing strategies that just prolong the mediocrity.  

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I posted something similar in a thread earlier in the year, but I don't think the prospect reinforcements are as strong as some believe, at least for this season. Duran and Canterino barely pitched last year and each battled elbow injuries. Surgery isn't guaranteed, but those types of injuries usually lead to intervention. Winder's shoulder issues to end the year could fall under the same category, or maybe it just was fatigue (still not great considering he only threw 72 innings.) They had to shut SWR down, not for injury, but because he was pitching so poorly. That leaves Balazovic. 

Add to this the fact that both Ryan and Ober threw just over 100 innings last year. Neither of them, even if healthy, is going to be able to pitch a full season, unless they're making 4 inning starts. Good luck constructing a bullpen capable of absorbing that on top of the occasional short starts from whoever else is added into the starting mix. 

If they're putting a bulk of their eggs in the prospect basket they're 100% throwing away the season. Hell, I'd argue that eschewing affordable arms in FA, and barring some big trade(s) for a front line arm this winter they're tossing away more than just this year. Maybe the prospect "luck," completely turns around, but it seems like an unnecessary amount of risk to take on. 

Outstanding post. 

 

I would go so far as to say prospect reinforcements are NEVER as strong as some believe. Particularly pitching prospects.

 

The idea the Twins will have a contending team built from current minor league pitching is a long shot. A very long shot.