Probable Work Stoppage Pushes Free Agent Frenzy

[Seth Stohs]

At nearly 1:00 am central time, a tweet popped up from Jon Morosi that read, "Source: Javier Baez is close to signing a multi-year deal with #Tigers." With a potential work stoppage looming, free agency has looked significantly different than ever before. The Twins, however, have been unable to make a signing to this point. Will that change on Tuesday? Or will they sign players on Wednesday too? Discuss the Tuesday rumors and deals in the comments below. 

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will run out at midnight, December 2nd. It is possible that the players and owners will be willing to extend the current deal for a week or so, but most likely, there will be a quiet period while the two sides negotiate a new CBA. The hope, of course, is that an agreement can be reached before spring training is set to begin in mid-February so that no games are in jeopardy of being missed in 2022. 

Because of the uncertainty, it has become clear that many free agents really want to have some certainty about where they will go, and how much they will make, when the agreement is reached. In recent years, free agent signings didn't really get going until much later in the offseason, a month or even two later. Many of the biggest free agent deals have already been reached, and the thought is that the next two days could be fast and furious. 

If it weren't for the magnitude of what a work stoppage would do for baseball and its fans, it might be funny to point out that maybe MLB should consider having a lockdown/labor situation every year at this time in an attempt to make the offseason more like the NFLs! 

Will the Twins participate in this flurry of activity, or will their front office show patience and see who is available after there is a new CBA? Many years, that is not a bad strategy. But with so many of the best free agents signing early, will there even be anyone left to sign that can help the Twins significantly in 2022?

Of course, the Twins did make the one move that they absolutely had to make. They have an agreement with outfielder Byron Buxton on a seven year, $100 million deal with intriguing, creative incentives. More important for both Buxton and Twins fans, the deal includes a full no-trade clause. 

The deal also had little, if any, effect on what the Twins can spend on their needs. And they have needs! They need pitching, for sure starting pitchers, but possibly even a couple of solid, veteran relievers. They also need a shortstop. Free agents at those positions have been flying off the availability list. Here's a quick look: 

Shortstops (ranked by MLB Trade Rumors) 
1.) Carlos Correa hasn't signed yet. Will he sign with the Yankees or stay with the Astros?
2.) Corey Seager agreed to a 10 year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers on Monday. 
3.) Marcus Semien agreed to a seven year, $175 million deal with the Texas Rangers on Sunday. 
4.) Trevor Story remains unsigned. The Yankees have seemed like the right fit, but suddenly on Monday the Rockies expressed interest in him returning, which is kind of weird.
5.) Javier Baez reportedly is nearing a six year contract with the Detroit Tigers late on Monday night (or early Tuesday morning is more accurate). 

OK, the Twins were never likely to sign any of those shortstops and all of the other free agent shortstops remain available and they will be much more cost efficient. 

The Twins focus is, and should be, primarily on pitching and specifically starting pitching this offseason. Frankly, the free agent market for pitchers has become rather limited, at least in the top tier or two. Here is a quick look at the free agent pitchers that have signed already and the few that remain available. 

Starting Pitchers (ranked by MLB Trade Rumors)
1.) Kevin Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. 
2.) Robbie Ray signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The Twins were one of five or six teams linked to Ray, but he's headed to the Northwest. 
3.) Max Scherzer signed a three-year, $130 million contract with the New York Mets on Monday. 
4.) Marcus Stroman is still available. The Twins have shown minimal public interest in him, but hopefully they will have some conversations. 
5.) Eduardo Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Tigers early in free agency. 
6.) Carlos Rodon is still available, and some reports have indicated the the Twins may have some interest. Should they? With his injury history, anything more than a one-year, make-good contract would be too much. 
7.) Jon Gray signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Texas Rangers on Sunday. 
8.) Anthony DeSclafani signed a three-year, $36 million deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. 
9.) Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $50 million contract to remain with the Houston Astros. 
10.) Alex Wood reportedly was nearing a two-year deal worth at least $20 million to remain with the Giants over a week ago, but to this point, the deal is not completed. 
11.) Steven Matz signed a four-year, $44 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals last week. 
12.) Clayton Kershaw is still available. With his injury situation, it makes no sense for the Twins to be interested. Also, it makes more sense for the future Hall of Famer to stay a Dodger. 
13.) Yusei Kikuchi is still on the market. There have been some reports of Twins interest, but several teams are interested as well, including teams back in Japan. 
14.) Noah Syndergaard signed a one-year deal with the Angels. 
15.) Alex Cobb has not yet signed, but as of Monday night, he was nearing a deal with the San Francisco Giants. 
16.) Zack Greinke is still a free agent. Another probably Hall of Famer may be intriguing, but his complete lack of velocity should be a red flag for the Twins. 
17.) Corey Kluber signed a one-year, $8 million with the Tampa Bay Rays. 
18.) Danny Duffy is available. Like others this far down the list, there is probably more injury risk than it's worth. That said, there is something to the 'there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract." 

Those are the starting pitchers in MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 free agent rankings. Beyond that, there are the likes of Tyler Anderson, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill, James Paxton and Michael Pineda all remain available. None are really very intriguing due to some combination of age, injury history or ineffectiveness. 

It will be interesting to see if other starting pitchers get non-tendered on Tuesday. It has been leaked that the Tigers intend to non-tender lefty Matthew Boyd who was considered good a couple of years ago. In fact, the Tigers could have traded him for a big trade package. Instead, they'll lose him for nothing. 

So, I would certainly think that the Twins quest for high-level starting pitching will likely have to be acquired via trade. The Twins certainly have the prospects or big-league players to acquire pitchers. It's just a matter of if they want to give up their own young arms or give opportunities to their internal candidates. 

So, what's going to happen on Tuesday and Wednesday? Will the free agency frenzy continue over the next two days, and will the Twins make some moves? 

Discuss the rumors and deals of the day below. Should the Twins sign any MLB deals, we will be sure to post an article quickly. 

 

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[old nurse]

I am getting the impression the Twins are adverse to long term contracts for pitchers. Of those listed as remaining Rodon for a 2 year contract seems like a Twin thing to do. They would have familiarity with Boyd I think is FB and change up guy, not a slider. If they think they could improve his slider significantly he would make sense

[TwinsDr2021]

Remember when the Tigers were so bad they picked up the Twins scraps, now?

To be honest all those deals minus Scherzer and Verlander were less than I was expecting, and the Twins could have done one or a combo of a few of them.

I don't think Stroman is worth 20 million a year, and I am guessing others don't either or he would have signed a 5/100 already. I think he swallows some pride and takes a 1-2 year contract with the Mets.

 

[terrydactyls]

"So, I would certainly think that the Twins quest for high-level starting pitching will likely have to be acquired via trade. The Twins certainly have the prospects or big-league players to acquire pitchers. It's just a matter of if they want to give up their own young arms or give opportunities to their internal candidates." 

Why give up young arms for old arms?  The Twins have a surplus at DH/1B/OF in the minors.  Trade those guys for pitching.

[Whitey333]

I doubt the Twins will sign anyone of significance.  This happens every off season as they let the decent free agents sign elsewhere and wait until late to sign what's left over.  That "strategy" is what has decimated our pitching.  It really makes a person wonder if they are at all serious about trying to win.  I don't think they care if they stay bottom feeders.  Very sad situation but one they have been doing for years. 

[071063]

The deals currently being signed for the free agent starting pitching and Shortstops are crazy stupid!  I wanted the Twins to jump into the Starting Pitching pool and sign at least 1 high end free agent, but with the contracts that are being signed, they would be foolish.

I have to admit that I don't have the answer, but the smaller market teams cannot compete if this is the direction the contracts are going to go.  The money Seager and Scherzer got is ridiculous.

[AZTwin]

The fed has printed 40% of the money supply in the last year alone.  With the impending inflation, teams would have to be stupid not to want to lock in long term deals this year.  I am fairly confident that in 2-3 years, all of these deals are going to look like huge bargains.

[lukeduke1980]

Falvey sounds committed to his young upcoming arms.  It would be cool to see some legit bullpen pieces added though.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd hope the Twins pursue their main top 2 pitchers via trade with OAK, MIA or maybe BAL's Means. We have some depth where they have needs. Also we have a ton of DH types that hopefully would provide  opportunities if NL passes the DH. Trading provides the best and most economically sound choice without much loss. I see FO signing  Pineda and some other pitchers that could do some spot starting and long relief. SS and Buxton sub might be a little trickier. If they can find any decent ones available that fits their profile via FA then they that's the way they go if not need to look  via trade.

Long relief should be a focus instead of putting our total confidence on our rotation and short relief like they did last year.

[dex8425]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Remember when the Tigers were so bad they picked up the Twins scraps, now?

To be honest all those deals minus Scherzer and Verlander were less than I was expecting, and the Twins could have done one or a combo of a few of them.

I don't think Stroman is worth 20 million a year, and I am guessing others don't either or he would have signed a 5/100 already. I think he swallows some pride and takes a 1-2 year contract with the Mets.

 

Personally, I'd pay more for Stroman than Robbie Ray. Stroman has had one bad year. Ray has had two good years and like 4-5 bad years. 

[farmerguychris]

To see us not sign anyone of significance as the top players fly off the board is very very disappointing.  What will our starting rotation be like come August when injuries have hit us?

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

I believe that they may be banking on at least two of their young arms (not including Ober and Ryan) making the leap this year. They will make one trade for a #1 or #2 from Miami or Oakland, sign Pineda, and go with that.

[TwinsDr2021]

18 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Personally, I'd pay more for Stroman than Robbie Ray. Stroman has had one bad year. Ray has had two good years and like 4-5 bad years. 

WAR: -.8, 1.6, 1.0, 4.7, 1.1, 1.3, -..5, .2, 6.7 = 15.4 (30 starting day 2022)

WAR: 1.8, 1.3, 1. 4,5. 2, 3.2, 1.5, 3.4 = 18.1 (31 starting day 2022)

[Trov]

I personally am surprised with some of the big signings before lockout.  I was expecting most to hold out until after, but with the huge contracts I can see why they signed now.  I have no issue with Twins not offering long term deals on top FA pitchers.  Outside of a few, most long term contracts for pitchers end up being terrible deals for team and great for pitcher.  Many pitchers never live up to the contract and are shells of their former self by the 3rd year of contract.  

Of course some pitchers do live up to it, but the track record is not good.  Teams like the Twins cannot gamble on too many long term deals on poor performance.  Of the pitchers Ray was one the Twins were reported to be in on, along with about 4 other teams.  We do not know the numbers discussed so hard to fault the Twins if they were in talks but Ray picked someone else. For all we know Twins offered more, but Ray wanted to go where he did for reasons other than just money. 

I am wondering how the SS class will shake out now. With Seager and Baez off the board, Siemian as well, but he was signed to be second baseman.  Leaving only Story and Correa left.  Correa will be seeking bigger deal than Seagar, Story will be seeking better than Baez I think but less than Seager.  Who will be in on them?

Yankess have been reported linked, but there is also stories they plan to get stop gap year until their top prospect is ready.  Houston will be in, and Dodgers most likely too.  Beyond that I am not too sure on who will be willing to agree to a 300 mil plus deal for Correa, or nearly 200 mil for Story.  

I doubt it will affect what either will get, but they have limited the teams that will be willing to pay huge money, and then when only one team bidding, hard to get them to up offers.  Of course if you drop down other teams will get involved but then not getting full value.  

If Yankees drop out of any bidding that will make it really interesting on what kind of deals are made. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

 What will our starting rotation be like come August when injuries have hit us?

August?

What will the rotation look like opening day??

[gman]

Seems like most of the teams signing players to big contracts are in the position of going for it the next couple of seasons.  Why sign a starting pitcher over 30 to a 5 year 100mil contract when you know the last 3 years will probably be wasted.

The Twins are in a position of expecting a lot of high level prospects to fill the team roster the next two years without necessarily being in a position to challenge in 2022-23. Keeping the prospects while hanging unto young talent like Buxton, Polanco, Jeffers, Sano, Arreaz et al, will see the team be a contender for a long time.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I believe that they may be banking on at least two of their young arms (not including Ober and Ryan) making the leap this year. They will make one trade for a #1 or #2 from Miami or Oakland, sign Pineda, and go with that.

I don't completely disagree but I think they will try to sign Pineda and at least one more bounce back arm.  They still might trade for another pitcher as well but hard to say if they will be able to find the right deal or not.  I do tend to agree though that they are hoping one or two of Winder, Sands, Strotman, Balazovich, Duran, Canterino and maybe SWR can work their way up.  So yeah once again they need some of those young guys to step up here's hoping they do.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, AZTwin said:

The fed has printed 40% of the money supply in the last year alone.  With the impending inflation, teams would have to be stupid not to want to lock in long term deals this year.  I am fairly confident that in 2-3 years, all of these deals are going to look like huge bargains.

Unfortunately I don’t think the television contracts are tied to inflation. Wages in baseball are tied to revenue streams, even if they are not worth what they once were

[sampleSizeOfOne]

23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

August?

What will the rotation look like opening day??

August is easier to answer, seeing as we know more about our triple A prospects than we do the free agents we end up signing...

[dex8425]

On 11/30/2021 at 10:12 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

WAR: -.8, 1.6, 1.0, 4.7, 1.1, 1.3, -..5, .2, 6.7 = 15.4 (30 starting day 2022)

WAR: 1.8, 1.3, 1. 4,5. 2, 3.2, 1.5, 3.4 = 18.1 (31 starting day 2022)

Right, give me the bottom guy. That's stroman, right? Much less volatility there. He won't win a Cy Young, but that sinker will play for years. Ray has strikeout stuff, but gives up lots of walks and homers.

[ashbury]

On 11/30/2021 at 5:20 AM, terrydactyls said:

Why give up young arms for old arms?  The Twins have a surplus at DH/1B/OF in the minors.  Trade those guys for pitching.

Good luck if they can do that, but pitching is the coin of the realm and I will be surprised if they can pull off a trade of any substance without giving up pitching in return.  Which... as we both probably agree, is the dilemma.