Byron Buxton Agrees to a Contract Extension with the Twins

[TheLeviathan]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. It was the right decision. I guess we could be disagreeing over the pedantic meaning of regret.

If only we could, as Chief is, enjoy them doing what most of us wanted, and not get all, something, about the future...

Considering the future is how you make assessments about value in a contract.  We need pitching but are you going to do cartwheels if we give Scherzer 14 years and 280M?  Or how did your reaction to the Siemien contract change when you saw that it was 7 years?  

Having a rational conversation about this contract is hard right now because people are willing to say things as objectively preposterous as "If Buxton never has another PA, I won't complain".  Now part of that kind of nonsense is just poor reading comprehension.  No one is talking about using hindsight to look back and want to undo this deal, but assessing why it exists today requires the willingness to see the upside and downside in a contract. 

The same people who were wagering beer that Buxton was a 30M AAV guy are of course going to look at this differently because they were so, so wrong three months ago that of course this looks differently.  It's part of a longstanding TD phenomenon in which Buxton is reality-proof.  If that's your approach to the player your assessment of this deal is going to be similarly blinded/non-rational.  If people want to be naively joyful, go ahead, but then they should just check out of the rational part of the discussion.  Which is totally fine to do sometimes!

To that end, al I was saying to the poster above, and it's still true now, is that the reason this deal is what it is relates to Buxton himself.  Had he gone through another year of injuries he would've seen a fraction of this kind of guaranteed money next offseason.  He's taking 100M in guarantees with incentives in part because he likes it here and also in part because his agents/reps clearly question how much will be out there in the future.  Which means that there is also that downside here now that we've made this guarantee.  We may see that his injuries persist and this contract ends up not paying off the way we hope.  In 6 years we may have remorse that it didn't pay off.  Not that we shouldn't have signed it, just remorse that this talented kid never did pay off on all that potential.  We may also look back and see this as the move that won us a World Series because we got a star at a discount rate.  Both possibilities are very, very real and that's why this deal looks the way it does.  I get being euphoric because it's Buxton.  At the same time, that's also not a real fair way to assess this move.

[TopGunn#22]

Well !  This is just what the Doctor order !  (not sure if that's Dr. Gast or Doc Bauer) !!!  A big chunk of faith in our FO is restored for me, except if I can nitpick, WHAT TOOK SO LONG ?!?!  This is JUST the type of contract that benefits both the Twins and Buxton.  NOW:  We need to acquire some pitchers !!  But the biggest question of the off season is answered and the FO can get busy.  To me, this shows ownership and the FO believe they can compete for the division title next year.  And being in the A.L. Central that should be the expectation.  They have 3 days to make another splash before things come to a screeching halt.  Wonder what their next move will be ??

[Whitey333]

This is very good news indeed.  But if the FO doesn't improve the team, especially our pitching, we will still be a poor team with a well paid center fielder.  I'm hoping this is just a start to retooling to make the team competitive again.  

[In My La Z boy]

My definition of a fair way to assess this deal - to me, it means we are trying to win. I want to try to win. That is what this means. I am also happy with this deal because it means Byron likes us and wants to stay and win here. This is all good. 

[Old Twins Cap]

Yeah, it's a discount, though Buck is tough to keep on the field.

On the other hand, $100M is a ton of money.  Think about it...

There are a lot of taxes, agent's fees, "expenses" in being a ball player, but at even just $50M, a properly invested portfolio will move $500K on a 1% rise in stocks.   Those types of moves have been quite common in the last three years, with the market up almost 50%.  That would be another $25M for Mr. Buck and his family...., well, before compounding the interest and price rises.

Sure, it's a discount, but, in a universe in which, if Buxton hires the right people, he can afford a discount, especially if the Twins spend the savings on a good pitching staff. 

The one thing he should get from all this:  peace of mind that his family will have a comfortable life going forward.

Just hire the right professionals, pay them well and show up at the park ready to play.

[Sousy]

16 hours ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

I'm curious what this means for Royce Lewis? Does the FO see him as a shortstop moving forward (meaning his recovery must be going very well) or is he now trade bait for some high-end pitching (Castillo? Montas?)?

I don't think we know yet - it all depends on Lewis' recovery and how his play continues to develop.  Something we've learned this year: you just can't have enough middle infield / centerfield depth. Hopefully Lewis stays on track to be a dependable everyday shortstop.

[Sousy]

15 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Remember, Buxton *should* be a free agent *right now* but the front office hosed him very intentionally. Byron appears to be a very forgiving man and we should all be thankful for it. This is a very team-friendly contract.

Buxton's view of this has always been pretty clear: I want to be here, I want you to invest in my future.

There's a lot of reasons that Buxton should be angry enough to want to leave - but now the Twins have made the commitment he wanted all along. Here's hoping it all works out. 

Related: now that this is settled, where's the best place to buy an eleven year old a Buxton jersey for Christmas? ?

[roger]

Was a great day for this old guy. 

The next most important thing for me to happen is for baseball to figure out some way that many of us can watch the game in 2022.  You know, the 55% of us that weren't able to see any games last year.  Not concerned about pitchers as I know they will have five starters ready to go come opening week.

But I am just as happy as a pig in you know what that Buxton will be here for most/all of his career.

[Sousy]

4 hours ago, DuluthFan said:

I would like to see the Twins sign an elite pitcher with pitching bonuses structured similarly.

 

Given the market, there's no way an elite starting pitcher signs a contract like this.

[Sousy]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

WHAT TOOK SO LONG ?!?! 

According to reporting, it was the Twins offering the no trade clause that sealed the deal - nothing else about the offer apparently was a significant change in terms of guaranteed money / incentives.

Buxton wanted the team to invest in him as a player - not as an asset to be traded.  This kind of deal is certainly that investment.  The thing I really like about this contract is that there is a lot of mutual benefit here: if Buxton maxes the thing out, the Twins are obviously reaping huge benefits in terms of winning games and fan interest.

[Richmond Dude]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If Buxton was worth high dollars on the open market, teams would have been offering the Twins something good to trade and Buxton would have been shipped. Nobody really wanted Buxton that bad outside the Twins.

I'm not sure how to respond to this, I don't think it's accurate and there certainly isn't any evidence to support what you said.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Considering the future is how you make assessments about value in a contract.  We need pitching but are you going to do cartwheels if we give Scherzer 14 years and 280M?  Or how did your reaction to the Siemien contract change when you saw that it was 7 years?  

Having a rational conversation about this contract is hard right now because people are willing to say things as objectively preposterous as "If Buxton never has another PA, I won't complain".  Now part of that kind of nonsense is just poor reading comprehension.  No one is talking about using hindsight to look back and want to undo this deal, but assessing why it exists today requires the willingness to see the upside and downside in a contract. 

The same people who were wagering beer that Buxton was a 30M AAV guy are of course going to look at this differently because they were so, so wrong three months ago that of course this looks differently.  It's part of a longstanding TD phenomenon in which Buxton is reality-proof.  If that's your approach to the player your assessment of this deal is going to be similarly blinded/non-rational.  If people want to be naively joyful, go ahead, but then they should just check out of the rational part of the discussion.  Which is totally fine to do sometimes!

To that end, al I was saying to the poster above, and it's still true now, is that the reason this deal is what it is relates to Buxton himself.  Had he gone through another year of injuries he would've seen a fraction of this kind of guaranteed money next offseason.  He's taking 100M in guarantees with incentives in part because he likes it here and also in part because his agents/reps clearly question how much will be out there in the future.  Which means that there is also that downside here now that we've made this guarantee.  We may see that his injuries persist and this contract ends up not paying off the way we hope.  In 6 years we may have remorse that it didn't pay off.  Not that we shouldn't have signed it, just remorse that this talented kid never did pay off on all that potential.  We may also look back and see this as the move that won us a World Series because we got a star at a discount rate.  Both possibilities are very, very real and that's why this deal looks the way it does.  I get being euphoric because it's Buxton.  At the same time, that's also not a real fair way to assess this move.

You make very valid points. But I think that people just want to enjoy the here and now for today and not do the deep dive about down the road and all the what ifs of value. You should take this post and create a blog.

[nova_twins]

I'm very relieved that the deal was made. 

There is one thing that nags me a little bit - if Buxton himself was highly confident in staying healthy going forward, would he sign this deal? With only one year to go until free agency, he's really *not* betting on himself here, despite the MVP escalators.

There are of course a wide range of potential outcomes. The reality will probably be somewhere in between the best case (mostly full seasons with impact production) and worst case (mostly hurt) . . . just have to hope it's closer to the former, and that the Twins put a winning team around him.

[Scott51104]

I am so pleased that BB and the Twins reached agreement, though I was worried about it occurring. He brings excitement to the game and should help the Twins both in the field and in the attendance figures.

[TheLeviathan]

10 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

I'm very relieved that the deal was made. 

There is one thing that nags me a little bit - if Buxton himself was highly confident in staying healthy going forward, would he sign this deal? With only one year to go until free agency, he's really *not* betting on himself here, despite the MVP escalators.

There are of course a wide range of potential outcomes. The reality will probably be somewhere in between the best case (mostly full seasons with impact production) and worst case (mostly hurt) . . . just have to hope it's closer to the former, and that the Twins put a winning team around him.

Yup, almost made that point above but I was long-winded enough,   I don't want to encroach on @DocBauer's territory or anything.

[Squirrel]

24 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

I'm very relieved that the deal was made. 

There is one thing that nags me a little bit - if Buxton himself was highly confident in staying healthy going forward, would he sign this deal? With only one year to go until free agency, he's really *not* betting on himself here, despite the MVP escalators.

There are of course a wide range of potential outcomes. The reality will probably be somewhere in between the best case (mostly full seasons with impact production) and worst case (mostly hurt) . . . just have to hope it's closer to the former, and that the Twins put a winning team around him.

The way I look at it, this contract is the median between Buxton’s ability to be a super star and his injury risk. It’s very team friendly, yet gives comfort and stability to Buxton. It was always going to be difficult finding that happy median for everyone involved and I think that’s what they did. I mean, if there were no injury history, Buxton would probably be able to command twice what he got. And there would still be no guarantee that something wouldn’t happen and we likely wouldn’t have been able to sign him, let alone room for another good signing, So what we are seeing is the compromise. I think it’s a very smart deal the FO made and one Buxton is happy with. And one this fan is happy with, too.

[spanman2]

It was interesting to see the MVP bonuses baked into the cake.  That tells me Buxton is very focused on staying on the field to prove to people he is that MVP candidate that wants to be the 150/game a year player.  Overall a good deal for both franchise/player.  Now it is time to get some pitching!  WIN TWINS!

[Craig Arko]

He’ll have enough money to buy a space flight ticket from Musk, Bezos, or Branson now. Maybe bring the kids along.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, spanman2 said:

It was interesting to see the MVP bonuses baked into the cake.  That tells me Buxton is very focused on staying on the field to prove to people he is that MVP candidate that wants to be the 150/game a year player.  Overall a good deal for both franchise/player.  Now it is time to get some pitching!  WIN TWINS!

Considering MVP votes and a team's winning percentage are so often linked, it would behoove Buxton to impress upon the Twins that he was signing this contract with the understanding that they'd be acquiring QUALITY starting pitching as well.

[Battle ur tail off]

I am very happy this got done. I think it is super team friendly but also gives Buxton security going forward. My hope is he stays healthy and turns into one of the best players in the game! He certainly has done it for short stretches, imagine say a 140 game/yr Buxton's impact to a team. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Considering the future is how you make assessments about value in a contract.  We need pitching but are you going to do cartwheels if we give Scherzer 14 years and 280M?  Or how did your reaction to the Siemien contract change when you saw that it was 7 years?  

Having a rational conversation about this contract is hard right now because people are willing to say things as objectively preposterous as "If Buxton never has another PA, I won't complain".  Now part of that kind of nonsense is just poor reading comprehension.  No one is talking about using hindsight to look back and want to undo this deal, but assessing why it exists today requires the willingness to see the upside and downside in a contract. 

The same people who were wagering beer that Buxton was a 30M AAV guy are of course going to look at this differently because they were so, so wrong three months ago that of course this looks differently.  It's part of a longstanding TD phenomenon in which Buxton is reality-proof.  If that's your approach to the player your assessment of this deal is going to be similarly blinded/non-rational.  If people want to be naively joyful, go ahead, but then they should just check out of the rational part of the discussion.  Which is totally fine to do sometimes!

To that end, al I was saying to the poster above, and it's still true now, is that the reason this deal is what it is relates to Buxton himself.  Had he gone through another year of injuries he would've seen a fraction of this kind of guaranteed money next offseason.  He's taking 100M in guarantees with incentives in part because he likes it here and also in part because his agents/reps clearly question how much will be out there in the future.  Which means that there is also that downside here now that we've made this guarantee.  We may see that his injuries persist and this contract ends up not paying off the way we hope.  In 6 years we may have remorse that it didn't pay off.  Not that we shouldn't have signed it, just remorse that this talented kid never did pay off on all that potential.  We may also look back and see this as the move that won us a World Series because we got a star at a discount rate.  Both possibilities are very, very real and that's why this deal looks the way it does.  I get being euphoric because it's Buxton.  At the same time, that's also not a real fair way to assess this move.

By this logic, every signing could come with regret. They could sign anyone, and that player could get hurt, or just be bad. They could sign Ray for $15MM a year, and he could get hurt.....should we look at that signing and judge it when it is done, or after the fact? If after the fact, then we just don't agree on how one should judge people's actions. Which is fine.

It isn't irrational to look at the deal, with the knowledge we have at the time it was signed, and think it is a good deal.

[D.C Twins]

Congrats to Buck, the Twins, and the fans!

I'd also like to acknowledge that I was obviously 100% WRONG that that Buck and the FO had no way of coming together on an agreement (and about bad blood that apparently did not exist).

That said, It is a wonderfully team friendly deal (pay for performance...and if great performance, extra pay well worth it).

Buck has really put together a beautiful and reproducible swing and I anticipate a HUGE year for him upcoming. After turning down extensions all they way up to 1 year out of FA, seems odd to cut a deal coming out of a 'lost year."

Maybe the anticipated new CB structure changed the calculus.

Alas, no matter what the reasoning, I'm super happy to be COMPLETELY WRONG on this issue and could not be more excited to retain a generational talent.

[TheLeviathan]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

By this logic, every signing could come with regret. They could sign anyone, and that player could get hurt, or just be bad. They could sign Ray for $15MM a year, and he could get hurt.....should we look at that signing and judge it when it is done, or after the fact? If after the fact, then we just don't agree on how one should judge people's actions. Which is fine.

It isn't irrational to look at the deal, with the knowledge we have at the time it was signed, and think it is a good deal.

Every contract comes with risk, no?  So, yeah, there could be regret.  Isn't that the risk evaluation we do in analyzing any trade or signing? 

All I've stressed is that I like this deal in full consideration of all the upside and downsides of it.  I'm not living a fairytale that what happens from here is irrelevant.  It is relevant.  Hindsight won't change that I feel this is a great move, but I may end up sad it didn't pay off.  Still right to do now.

What is irrational is saying this deal is a win because nothing could go wrong.  Including, as was mentioned, Buxton never actually playing and getting 100M.  We agree that is nonsense right?

[KirbyDome89]

12 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Every contract comes with risk, no?  So, yeah, there could be regret.  Isn't that the risk evaluation we do in analyzing any trade or signing? 

All I've stressed is that I like this deal in full consideration of all the upside and downsides of it.  I'm not living a fairytale that what happens from here is irrelevant.  It is relevant.  Hindsight won't change that I feel this is a great move, but I may end up sad it didn't pay off.  Still right to do now.

What is irrational is saying this deal is a win because nothing could go wrong.  Including, as was mentioned, Buxton never actually playing and getting 100M.  We agree that is nonsense right?

I'm with you that judgement in retrospect is ok, and you're right, his performance and availability over the next few seasons is certainly relevant. This deal shouldn't be evaluated solely on the Twins position the day Buxton signs, but I do think current status should weigh heavily into the final verdict. If you feel it's a great move, as most of us do, I don't see much of a quibble. Maybe it's me, but  like the overwhelming attitude seems to be that the deal is a win despite the fact something could go wrong.

[Original_JB]

I only love this deal if there are 2 more "real" SP's to be signed/acquired by the Twins, otherwise, Pohlads/St.Peter signed the guy "the fans wanted", at a price 'they' liked and as such can consider their work 'done' outside of the retreads to fill out the rotation. You can't bring back a guy you already have with a shiny new contract and claim that you spent big money (like you would have with a free agent) and call it a day.

[USAFChief]

49 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

 

What is irrational is saying this deal is a win because nothing could go wrong.  

I've read through the entire thread, twice, and I'm pretty confident nobody said "nothing could go wrong."

Myself, I've said I won't have remorse if, seven years down the road, Buxton hasn't earned the contract.

We can't know the quality/quantity of Buxton's play over the next 7 years.

But right now we can make a determination if, given the information we have right now, this was a good move for the Twins.

It was. It is. Future developments change none of that.

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

49 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'm with you that judgement in retrospect is ok, and you're right, his performance and availability over the next few seasons is certainly relevant. This deal shouldn't be evaluated solely on the Twins position the day Buxton signs, but I do think current status should weigh heavily into the final verdict. If you feel it's a great move, as most of us do, I don't see much of a quibble. Maybe it's me, but  like the overwhelming attitude seems to be that the deal is a win despite the fact something could go wrong.

It's definitely a win today!  I'm all for it and excited we got it done.  Hell, I've been on the conservative end with 7/115 in my offseason projection so to get in even further under?  Huge win.

But there is absolutely the potential we look back in disappointment.  That in no way obligates us to change our mind and think we wouldn't do it over, just disappointed in the outcome.  It's possible to acknowledge the risks while still being solidly in favor of the move.  Jubilant even!  But we do assess risks and should assess them in this case.

Personally, I feel the upside relative to this cost is tremendous.  There is serious downside, but not enough to sway me off that stance.  I can see that downside happening, hell it may even be likely, but it doesn't change the value of the upside.  So I'd sign that deal today and 7 years from now either way, but we may look back and be disappointed in how it all played out.  I hope that isn't the case though!

[roger]

Byron Buxton has the talent, tools you may say, to some day be considered among the greatest players to ever play the game.  Now I don't have a clue if that will happen.  The great news is that if he does, we will get to watch it happen right here at the friendly confines of Target Field.

Now let Royce Lewis get healthy and join him together with one or two of those young stud pitchers and let the party begin!

[dxpavelka]

16 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, there are, what surprised me is that they start at 500 PAs and not something like 300 PAs, which definitely favors the Twins over Buxton (like pretty much everything in this contract does).

They beat him like he stole something in this deal.  Maybe.  Most guys who sign a long term extension play out like Mauer and Pujols.  They outproduce  their contracts prior to hitting free agency.  For the most part they earn their money during the first part of their long term extensions and on the back half of those contracts they are an albatross on the back of the team.  Buxton's gonna be a little different.  Essentially, for the next seven years his pay is likely to mirror his production.  We should be lauding Falvine on this one.  And yet, Buxton has the potential to make $23.5 million in any given year.  If he does in any year, everyone wins.