Am I wrong? I'd rather the Twins have Martin, Woods Richardson, and $20M per year to spend than Jose Berrios?

[prouster]

I liked the trade when it happened, because Berrios seemed intent on hitting free agency. 
 

If he was signed for 7/140 when the trade was made, he would have brought back a lot more than Martin and SWR. Ten times out of ten, I’d rather have the proven pitcher signed to a somewhat team friendly deal. 

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Randy Dobnak signed from Independent ball in August 2017, and in August of 2019 he was pitching in the bigs.

Bailey Ober was drafted in 2017, and was in the bigs after only 2.5 years in the minors.

Josh Winder pitched at three levels this year.

Louis Varland and Jordan Balazovic both pitched at multiple levels this year

The tired screed of the Twins moving their prospects slowly is just that--tired.

Making crappy assumptions is tired as well, I NEVER mentioned moving prospects along though the system slowing, I was talking about innings pitched, and some of your examples above prove my point. Now maybe you could enlighten us with examples of pitchers they jump large innings?

"Twins bring pitchers along it could be another three years to get him to 120+ innings a year."

 

[TopGunn#22]

Evaluating ANY trade is always difficult because it's like playing chess.  It's never just ONE move that wins the game, it's a series of moves.  On it's face, I was happy with the return the Twins got for Berrios.  A position player with initial positional flexibility  and the potential to be an on base machine and a pitcher with very nice upside.  But it's the chess moves that FOLLOW this opening move that will determine how well this works out.  Very few trades can be judged strictly on we traded "A" for "B" (except Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio and Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas).  When Detroit acquired Doyle Alexander from the Braves in 1987 he went 10-1 down the stretch and made the Tigers the top team in the American League.  It was a GREAT trade for the Tigers !  Except... when they lost in the playoffs to the Twins and the player they gave up for Alexander was John Smoltz.  End of story.  So WHAT the Twins do with the $20 is the next series of chess moves to determine the ultimate outcome of the trade.  I like who we got, but we are now left with a starting rotation of two rookies who show promise, but can really only be counted on as ONE pitcher in the rotation.  Berrios leaves a BIG, BIG, hole.

[Whitey333]

People better hope those prospects pan out.  I hope they turn out great but they are what they are:. Prospects.  Plus they come cheap!  I think we are all going to be underwhelmed and frustrated this off-season.  They usually wait until late to sign people which many times doesn't work out.  I don't see anything to indicate things will change this year.  The moves made so far doesn't give one much confidence in twins being a contender anytime soon.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The fallacy is assuming that Berrios would have signed that contract with the Twins. That is not an assumption I am willing to make. My assumption is that the terms of an extension with Berrios for the Twins would have been different because the two parties had different priorities and different BATNAs (best alternative to negotiated agreement) than Berrios and Blue Jays.

I don’t think John is wrong, just framing it incompletely. It’s not Berrios at 6 years 120 mil or the Two Prospects. It’s Berrios at an unknown contract or the Two Prospects. The uncertainty of both scenarios is pertinent.

I’d probably take the trade too. I’m pretty risk averse, and two lotto tickets plus the assumed budget freed up (as things sit total freed up space is probably 40-50 mil) is worth more IFF(to Brocks point) the FO improves their ability to identify free agents to sign. Their track record thus far is pretty poor on pitching.

[Linus]

Here’s the other problem. Take Berrios new deal and go shopping on the free agent market. I don’t think you will get as much as you think and that assumes you can get a Berrios level pitcher to take the money.  So then you end up with two $10 million per year guys (happ got $8 million last year) and then I would really rather have Berrios. 

[nicksaviking]

It's a fair take, but the 2023 free agent starting pitching class is barren; Berrios would have been the top arm. If they don't get someone like Robbie Ray now, they likely won't have any pitchers to spend that 20M on for at least three years.

[dex8425]

I like the return. The contract seems like a good value for TOR but I don't think Berrios signs that contract with the Twins, even if the Twins had offered. Of course, like everyone else, I assume/hope the FO chooses to spend the $ on another #2 starter. 

[gunnarthor]

The problem with the trade is what it means. This FO's job was to keep the window of opportunity open for the core they inherited. They had Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, Polanco etc all under team control through (at least) next year. They made promises to compete to the fans. Instead, they failed to do what they were supposed to do, won't attempt to buy pitching to fix their mistakes, so they started the sell off. Buxton will likely be traded this summer as well. So instead of competing through at least 2022, as promised, accepting the Berrios trade means fans have to accept that this team won't be competitive for a few more years.

The trade from a prospect stand point was a good one for the Twins. We got a good return. But I'd rather the Twins were committed to getting to the playoffs next year instead. 

[mike8791]

Here's why I could be ok with the deal:

1.  Martin and Richardson provide at least league average production in the next 1-2 years.

2. Twins use money saved on Berrios to sign a #2 starter(or #1 ) in FA.  Any one of Stroman, Ray, Rodon or Gausman would be great.  

3.  FO pulls off a significant trade to land a young starter able to replace JB's production in next couple years.

4.  FO resigns Buxton.

Or, alternatively,   Twins are in a complete rebuild mode and trade off current assets.

I never believed that Berrios was the type of shutdown hurler in a first playoff game match, so his loss was not a big deal IF FO able to replace him with someone better - one who wouldn't maddeningly throw a bad pitch at a very inopportune time.  But color me a huge sceptic that FO is capable of doing just that.  Early offseason news shows a continuation of this FO's risk-averse MO.

 

[gunnarthor]

9 hours ago, Tim said:

Did you really just say that Austin Martin is no better than Akil Baddoo lmao .. Jesus

What's so wrong with that? They are the same age, one is in the majors, one is in AA. Before his injury, Baddoo was talked about a lot on the prospect boards as a sneaky good player who will jump up on the top 100 lists. He got hurt so he didn't, but he was perceived as having that talent by at least some evaluators. Martin's ranked somewhere from the mid 30s to the mid 50s in most rankings right now and seen as a strong hit, low power, questionable defensive guy. They are pretty different players and Martin probably has the higher upside but it's not a silly argument to say that Baddoo will be the better major leaguer. 

[Linus]

I don’t think the idea that Berrios wouldn’t sign that contract with the Twins is the likely answer. It’s far more likely that the Twins never offered that contract to him. 
let’s do a Charlie munger and invert this deal. If the Twins offered Martin and SWR to the jays for Berrios and his new contract the Jays hang up the phone in a minute. 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's a fair take, but the 2023 free agent starting pitching class is barren; Berrios would have been the top arm. If they don't get someone like Robbie Ray now, they likely won't have any pitchers to spend that 20M on for at least three years.

But I'm told that you should only sign free agents the exact year you need them, and never before.....

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

But I'm told that you should only sign free agents the exact year you need them, and never before.....

Yeah, well I suppose that's true if you do it the way the Twins want to do it and only want to hand out short term deals.......

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

What's so wrong with that? They are the same age, one is in the majors, one is in AA. Before his injury, Baddoo was talked about a lot on the prospect boards as a sneaky good player who will jump up on the top 100 lists. He got hurt so he didn't, but he was perceived as having that talent by at least some evaluators. Martin's ranked somewhere from the mid 30s to the mid 50s in most rankings right now and seen as a strong hit, low power, questionable defensive guy. They are pretty different players and Martin probably has the higher upside but it's not a silly argument to say that Baddoo will be the better major leaguer. 

Agreed, at this point aren't we hoping Martin at age 23 does what Baddoo at age 22 did in the majors?

With Martin in left/center I love his OBP and hate is SLG, with Martin at SS playing above average defensive, I absolutely love his OBP, and am happy with his SLG.

Just to clarify, I am talking about his minor league SLG, not his college SLG. ( I get all the reasons people might say about why that happened, he was young for AA, he started in AA, first year with a wood bat, but won't that all be true next year (minus the first year of a wood bat?)

I also just looked and Martin has played a total of 45 games at SS since 2018. Compare that to with Royce Lewis who has played 275 since 2017.

I can't image any team throwing a young kid with 45 games at SS under his belt to the wolves, so if the FO thinks he can be a major league SS, I see him starting in AA next year (possibly AAA).

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Making crappy assumptions is tired as well, I NEVER mentioned moving prospects along though the system slowing, I was talking about innings pitched, and some of your examples above prove my point. Now maybe you could enlighten us with examples of pitchers they jump large innings?

"Twins bring pitchers along it could be another three years to get him to 120+ innings a year."

To be fair, Ober pitched 78.2 innings in 2019, zero innings in 2020, and then jumped all the way to 108.1 innings in 2021. If he's healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him cross 150 innings in 2022. The Twins are cautious, no doubt, but they're also not so foolish as to waste prime seasons of a pitcher's arm just for the hell of it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

With Martin in left/center I love his OBP and hate is SLG, with Martin at SS playing above average defensive, I absolutely love his OBP, and am happy with his SLG.

I'm not sure where to rank him right now. He was facing wrist issues in 2021 and his slugging was WAY down from his college days, when he slugged .600. It kinda mirrored what we saw from Kirilloff before he was shut down last season; he was still a pretty good hitter but he lost all his power.

After an offseason of recuperation, I think we'll have a much better idea of what to expect from Martin by June of next season.

[terrydactyls]

Just for fun, I thought I would return to the original question.  My answer is:  I prefer the trade.

[Tim]

45 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

What's so wrong with that? They are the same age, one is in the majors, one is in AA. Before his injury, Baddoo was talked about a lot on the prospect boards as a sneaky good player who will jump up on the top 100 lists. He got hurt so he didn't, but he was perceived as having that talent by at least some evaluators. Martin's ranked somewhere from the mid 30s to the mid 50s in most rankings right now and seen as a strong hit, low power, questionable defensive guy. They are pretty different players and Martin probably has the higher upside but it's not a silly argument to say that Baddoo will be the better major leaguer. 

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Agreed, at this point aren't we hoping Martin at age 23 does what Baddoo at age 22 did in the majors?

With Martin in left/center I love his OBP and hate is SLG, with Martin at SS playing above average defensive, I absolutely love his OBP, and am happy with his SLG.

Just to clarify, I am talking about his minor league SLG, not his college SLG. ( I get all the reasons people might say about why that happened, he was young for AA, he started in AA, first year with a wood bat, but won't that all be true next year (minus the first year of a wood bat?)

I also just looked and Martin has played a total of 45 games at SS since 2018. Compare that to with Royce Lewis who has played 275 since 2017.

I can't image any team throwing a young kid with 45 games at SS under his belt to the wolves, so if the FO thinks he can be a major league SS, I see him starting in AA next year (possibly AAA).

 

Check out his splits in the 2nd half of the season once teams had a report on him.

[TwinsDr2021]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

To be fair, Ober pitched 78.2 innings in 2019, zero innings in 2020, and then jumped all the way to 108.1 innings in 2021. If he's healthy, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him cross 150 innings in 2022. The Twins are cautious, no doubt, but they're also not so foolish as to waste prime seasons of a pitcher's arm just for the hell of it.

Which is exactly what I was trying to say,

SWR pitched:

106.2 in 2019

0 in 2020

53.1 in 2021,

So I can't imagine in the next two years they will let him go over 120, so it would be the third year where he goes over that level.

(Maybe I am off by a few and they let him go 130ish in 2023, but it is basically the same thing, he won't be a 5-6 inning starting pitcher for 25 plus starts until 2024)

I didn't say that the FO is wrong for doing this, I was just pointing out this seems to be their MO. I was just trying to temper expectations that he was going to be savior for the major league staff in the next two years.

 

[gunnarthor]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

Check out his splits in the 2nd half of the season once teams had a report on him.

Sure, that happens to most players. He was also playing at three levels higher than he had ever played after miss all of 2020 and most of 2019. He might be a flash in the pan but I hope not. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Which is exactly what I was trying to say,

SWR pitched:

106.2 in 2019

0 in 2020

53.1 in 2021,

So I can't imagine in the next two years they will let him go over 120, so it would be the third year where he goes over that level.

(Maybe I am off by a few and they let him go 130ish in 2023, but it is basically the same thing, he won't be a 5-6 inning starting pitcher for 25 plus starts until 2024)

I didn't say that the FO is wrong for doing this, I was just pointing out this seems to be their MO. I was just trying to temper expectations that he was going to be savior for the major league staff in the next two years.

I see but I think your numbers are low, even for the Twins organization. If he's healthy, I'd be mildly surprised if their target for 2022 isn't around 110-120 IP.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Check out his splits in the 2nd half of the season once teams had a report on him.

None of which changes the fact that on November 19, 2021, one has a  successful nearly full season of MLB play under his belt, one has advanced to AA.

As of today, Baddoo is the better baseball player. 

[Tim]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

None of which changes the fact that on November 19, 2021, one has a  successful nearly full season of MLB play under his belt, one has advanced to AA.

As of today, Baddoo is the better baseball player. 

13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Sure, that happens to most players. He was also playing at three levels higher than he had ever played after miss all of 2020 and most of 2019. He might be a flash in the pan but I hope not. 

So both of you would take Baddoo over Martin .. His underlying number are terrible.

[Rosterman]

In some ways, the Oakland (and Tampa and Miami) way of doing things. Can even throw the Indians into the mix.

 

We all argue about the gamble you take on prospects, especially those you draft. But few people argue about the total risk of long-term big contracts over the life of the contract.

 

Was Donaldson a good investment? Did the Twins do well giving Mauer millions (they did, because you are also rewarding for past play  and his overall worth as a fanchise name). We can argue that the Twins didn't do enough to keep Hunter, Cuddyer, Nathan and even Santana in a Twins uniform. Okay, Santana is a GREAT example...how did the Twins reinvest the monies that the Mets paid for Santana, and how did the four players work out in the long run for the Twins.

 

And, again, you can have the best pitcher in baseball - but if the team around doesn't perform, you have the best (highly-paid) pitcher in baseball.

 

I honestly have a hard time with trading prospects unles you are definitely in the playoff run and need a strong piece (as Toronto did with Berrios).  With the current situation of the Twins, I would rather trade off already salaried pieces for the future than the future for names other teams wish to jettison. There is never a shortage of players a team can purchase for stopgap. Some work out well in the short-term. Occasionally all the purchases are non-refundable (like 2021 with Shoemaker, Happ, Simmons, Colome - didn't really think it would be that bad).

 

I want to think the front office does know what they are doing. I do trust them. And keep reminding myself that in every baseball season a game is won by one team and lost by another, and all teams want to win, but most will be behind one of six teams.

 

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, Tim said:

Check out his splits in the 2nd half of the season once teams had a report on him.

In August was terrible, .200,.280, .480, if they could of they probably would have sent him down.

But he picked it back up a bit in September, .340,.395, .736

Would I trade Martin for Baddoo, nope,  because I think he CAN be better than Baddoo in the future. Would I trade Baddoo for just about any non-pitching prospect in the Twins system, yup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

So both of you would take Baddoo over Martin

I see both sides of this. Baddoo has the huge performance advantage at a higher level but we also haven't seen Martin healthy yet. Right now, I think it's close to a wash because of the potential upside in Martin if his wrist injury was just a temporary setback.

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

In August was terrible, .200,.280, .480, if they could of they probably would have sent him down.

But he picked it back up a bit in September, .340,.395, .736

Would I trade Martin for Baddoo, nope,  because I think he CAN be better than Baddoo in the future. Would I trade Baddoo for just about any non-pitching prospect in the Twins system, yup.

How was his July

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here you all go, now no one has to look up Baddoo's splits.

Months

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	20	19	66	63	6	14	4	3	4	13	1	0	2	29	.222	.242	.571	.814	36	0	0	0	1	0	0	.323	104	125
May	20	14	58	43	7	11	2	1	1	7	4	0	14	17	.256	.431	.419	.850	18	0	0	0	1	1	0	.385	127	142
June	22	17	76	66	11	23	7	0	0	3	5	2	10	13	.348	.434	.455	.889	30	1	0	0	0	0	0	.434	136	145
July	23	22	101	96	18	24	4	1	5	18	4	2	5	19	.250	.287	.469	.756	45	1	0	0	0	0	1	.264	95	101
August	13	11	50	50	2	10	2	1	0	4	0	0	0	17	.200	.200	.280	.480	14	2	0	0	0	0	0	.303	25	31
Sept/Oct	26	24	110	95	16	25	1	1	3	10	4	0	14	27	.263	.355	.389	.744	37	1	0	0	1	0	0	.333	97	103

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2021.

[terrydactyls]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Here you all go, now no one has to look up Baddoo's splits.

Months

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
April/March	20	19	66	63	6	14	4	3	4	13	1	0	2	29	.222	.242	.571	.814	36	0	0	0	1	0	0	.323	104	125
May	20	14	58	43	7	11	2	1	1	7	4	0	14	17	.256	.431	.419	.850	18	0	0	0	1	1	0	.385	127	142
June	22	17	76	66	11	23	7	0	0	3	5	2	10	13	.348	.434	.455	.889	30	1	0	0	0	0	0	.434	136	145
July	23	22	101	96	18	24	4	1	5	18	4	2	5	19	.250	.287	.469	.756	45	1	0	0	0	0	1	.264	95	101
August	13	11	50	50	2	10	2	1	0	4	0	0	0	17	.200	.200	.280	.480	14	2	0	0	0	0	0	.303	25	31
Sept/Oct	26	24	110	95	16	25	1	1	3	10	4	0	14	27	.263	.355	.389	.744	37	1	0	0	1	0	0	.333	97	103

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2021.

So he had five poor to average months and one good month.  I'll take Martin.