Is this front office borderline hostile to "not their" guys?

[wsnydes]

11 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I'm not sure they can legally refuse to give you a refund.

I don't see this as being any different than a department store giving store credit for a return.

Secondly, season ticket holders received a bonus credit from the team on their 2020 ticket package to be used on additional games or tickets during a future season, which was non-refundable.  That's likely what's happening here.

[IndianaTwin]

15 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Sorry, I meant at anything approaching market value. They’ll give free agents large dollar sums but not their own players. 

I’m not a student of contracts, but the ones for Sano and Kepler seem to be around market value. And the way things are looking, Dobnak’s may be over market value. ?

The following isn’t a comment directed to you in specific, but to TD in general over the last 24 hours. It seems like we’ve generated a lot of keystrokes in response to an article that basically said, “There’s no news to report,” leaving unsaid the part of “But I’ve got to report something.”

[adorduan]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

First off, a 7 year contract was more than Berrios would have commanded on the open market. Second, it was an overpay by the Blue Jays at 7 years $131-141MM. Berrios would not have commanded that on the open market which is, of course, okay. Overpaying a bit for a known high quality starting pitcher for a team committed to competing for a World Series is how it's done. Overpaying by any amount is not the Twins' way, though. Period. This shouldn't come as a surprise, let alone a shock to people. The Pohlads do not go long in years at high AAV. Bill Smith managed to keep Mauer and the first season where Smith's team struggled, the Pohlads fired him. 

In regard to Buxton, it's entirely plausible that Falvey does not see Buxton the same way fans on this site see him. 

You have no way of knowing that is true. I suspect that he would have easily gotten that on the open market.

[mike8791]

Brock, nice article!  The problem with this FO  from day one is they have always thought themselves the smartest guys in the room.  They don't make risky trades, they wait for FAs to fall to them at end of offseason, and yes, they have a plan they stick to regardless of how the team plays on the field.  To put it simply, they are full of themselves and their brilliance.  I have called it hubris, pure and simple.  This may or may not include a preference for "their" players, but one thing is clear - they are narrow minded, egotistical and afraid to take risks for fear of making a mistake.

With that said, the real culprit here is Jim Pohlad.  He naively bought into their hype in hiring them and prefers to fade into the background.  We all agree that losing Buxton would be a body blow to near term return to contention.  All it would take to reverse this tack would be for JP to call mgt. and tell them to sign this guy, period!  But Pohlad has never shown any leadership so why should we expect this now at this all-critical juncture of the offseason?  The only way this can change is for new ownership, as JP has always shown his preference for clones who have identical "banker's mentality".

Here in Chicago, real fans, sportswriters, and sites like TD would take to the media and the streets.  We don't because owners like Reinsdorf are able to maintain fan allegiance by going all in when the time is right  Someone asked what can a fan do to protest this lack of commitment by ownership?  How about organizing a protest in front of Twins HQ?  Or better yet, organize a mass mailing by season ticketholders pledging to cancel their ticket if Buxton allowed to walk.  When Carl came to Chicago to an owners meeting shortly after he announced intentions to contract the team, I waited in front of the hotel since 7AM  for him to arrive with signs lambasting him for this threatened action.  The startled look on his face was worth every waiting moment.  So the message is, forget Minnesota Nice and show your anger.  Get ownership out of their comfort zone!  It might not produce results, but at least you will have the satisfaction of active protest.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I’m not a student of contracts, but the ones for Sano and Kepler seem to be around market value. And the way things are looking, Dobnak’s may be over market value. ?

I'm talking open market free agent money. They'e either retained guys for pennies or let them walk in free agency. They don't hesitate to pay the likes of Castro, Pineda, Cruz, Donaldson (which is great) or even the likes of Happ (not so much) but they won't give Berrios Donaldson money and they let the likes of Trevor May go to the Mets for not much money.

[Whitey333]

I have maintained for a while that payroll may be cut.  People expecting a payroll of $150mil could be in for a huge surprise.  Believe me  I hope payroll is at 150 but most indications have been a reduced payroll.  I hope I'm wrong because this team from 2021 was unwatchable.  I think it works for Tampa because it has to.  No one goes to their games.  Plus they must have some great scouts and player development professionals.  Far better than our Twins.

[nicksaviking]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Well, maybe the aggressiveness, not the baseball acumen.

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, Boom Boom said:

I'm not sure it has to do with "Their Guys"; I got that vibe more from the Terry Ryan org. than this one.

The vibe I get from Falvine is that they are constantly trying to prove that they are the smartest guys in the room.  And they frequently outsmart themselves.

This kind of comment always comes up when someone disagrees with anything the Falvine regime does and always seems to be related to more analytically-minded  FO's coming in and trying to advance the organization. That's an unfortunate bias creeping in.

[Johnny Ringo]

The Berrios contract could potentially say 3 or 4 things about the FO. All of them are somewhere between bad and really bad.  I hope they don't sign Buxton. He is the most exciting player of his generation. Yes, he has been hurt a lot but those are for completely forgivable reasons. He deserves better than this club, for both general reasons (their greed at the expense of relevance) and idiosyncratic reasons (their September shenanigans with him). I hope he makes a lot of money and comes to wear a couple of rings. God's speed Buck.       

[Thebigalguy]

Everybody who agrees with Brock is absolutely right. Berrios was our ace and he was affordable. Buxton, despite the injuries, is a budding superstar and he's affordable. It's hard to judge prospects, but it seems clear to me that we got more in the trade for Cruz, on the end of a single year contract, than for Berrios, entering his prime. Falvey and Levine are fading fast in terms of credibility. 

[Murph]

Falvine doesn't understand Minnesota.  Minnesota fans care a lot about their players.  The success of this season, for Minnesota fans, was Eddie's ring (they told Eddie to "go away") and José's season. They care a lot about them!  Twins fans will choose among  their thousands of lakes if their baseball team isn't worth watching.  We follow our favorite players whether or not they're in Twins uniforms.  Finally, I don't agree that Donaldson was worth it.  He doesn't "fit." And, if Falvine were "a fit", they would have known that. 

[Mark G]

20 hours ago, cHawk said:

I can't get around this comment right here. The team they inherited hadn't made the playoffs since 2010. Not only that, but they had averaged 94 losses per season.

.And yet they finished 163-161 in the first two years of this FO, the whole while they were selling off every major league player of any value, getting the 2nd wild card the first year.  Of course that was the year they began the selloff; they finished it the following year and won 8 less because of it.  The cupboards weren't that bare going into their time here.  

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I have maintained for a while that payroll may be cut. 

Can't disagree with your sentiment on payroll. However, the Twins can keep Buxton and reduce payroll too and have a better team on the field than last summer.

 

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

I have maintained for a while that payroll may be cut.  People expecting a payroll of $150mil could be in for a huge surprise.  Believe me  I hope payroll is at 150 but most indications have been a reduced payroll.  I hope I'm wrong because this team from 2021 was unwatchable.  I think it works for Tampa because it has to.  No one goes to their games.  Plus they must have some great scouts and player development professionals.  Far better than our Twins.

I have been singing the same song for a while myself.  After two years of pretty steep losses and a new CBA adding (I am assuming) increased costs above the last one, JP is not likely to increase payroll; if anything he will scale back and go with the young guys with a few vets to guide them along and call it a reboot, not a rebuild.  

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Mark G said:

The cupboards weren't that bare going into their time here.  

Yah, I'm confused why there are people who dismiss the core that was in place. 

If the Twins tore the team down this year and accumulated some prospects, they would lose for five years while that next core learned to play at the MLB level. At that time, if that core had real talent, the team would be competitive.

Somehow, people need to get away from the idea that one management team is superior to a previous one.

[Mark G]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

First off, a 7 year contract was more than Berrios would have commanded on the open market. Second, it was an overpay by the Blue Jays at 7 years $131-141MM. Berrios would not have commanded that on the open market which is, of course, okay. Overpaying a bit for a known high quality starting pitcher for a team committed to competing for a World Series is how it's done. Overpaying by any amount is not the Twins' way, though. Period. This shouldn't come as a surprise, let alone a shock to people. The Pohlads do not go long in years at high AAV. Bill Smith managed to keep Mauer and the first season where Smith's team struggled, the Pohlads fired him. 

In regard to Buxton, it's entirely plausible that Falvey does not see Buxton the same way fans on this site see him. 

You may be right about Falvey not seeing Buxton the same way fans do.  Paying superstar money for a player who can't stay on the field, at least through this point in his career, may seem to this FO as a way of bargaining low, hoping he will see their argument, and locking him in cheap, assuming he will take the guaranteed money and run with it.  Buxton, on the other hand, thinks he is worth superstar money, injuries or not.  The problem may be entirely that both sides are right, in their own ways, and will never cede to the other.  In my extremely humble opinion, that is why speculation has increased that a trade will be coming sooner or later.  

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Mark G said:

JP is not likely to increase payroll; if anything he will scale back

Ok. What is the overall picture then? Are you talking $50-75 million, $75-100 million, or $100-125 million? Each is possible and we have zero say in those decisions. The Twins can be competitive and keep Buxton at the $100-125 million budget. It is how the team is built that makes a difference and trades will bring in better players at a lower salary than free agency, although this will cost some shift in roster members. 

The post is about a perceived hostility or less fondness perhaps of our current management team towards those players signed by the previous front office. Professional sports teams see a ton of movement of personnel and it is mostly a business. However, it does seem human that a person would favor their choices over others. Hostility? That doesn't seem very likely, especially in the cold reality of our corporate culture.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

You may be right about Falvey not seeing Buxton the same way fans do.  Paying superstar money for a player who can't stay on the field, at least through this point in his career, may seem to this FO as a way of bargaining low, hoping he will see their argument, and locking him in cheap, assuming he will take the guaranteed money and run with it.  Buxton, on the other hand, thinks he is worth superstar money, injuries or not.  The problem may be entirely that both sides are right, in their own ways, and will never cede to the other.  In my extremely humble opinion, that is why speculation has increased that a trade will be coming sooner or later.  

Even if he did stay on the field. Buxton has a career 12.9 fWAR in what adds up to 3 full seasons. That is not superstar level, that's like basic All Star level. Buxton's career is on par with Denard Span's first 3 seasons.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, adorduan said:

You have no way of knowing that is true. I suspect that he would have easily gotten that on the open market.

Eduardo Rodriguez (similar pitcher) got 5 years $80MM.

Zack Wheeler (similar pitcher) got 5 years $118MM.

MLBTradeRumors has 3 other pitchers who are viewed as better than Berrios with contracts expected on par or smaller at 5 / $110MM (Stroman), 5 / $130MM (Ray) and 6 / $138MM (Gausman).

[nicksaviking]

53 minutes ago, Murph said:

Falvine doesn't understand Minnesota.  Minnesota fans care a lot about their players.  The success of this season, for Minnesota fans, was Eddie's ring (they told Eddie to "go away") and José's season. They care a lot about them!  Twins fans will choose among  their thousands of lakes if their baseball team isn't worth watching.  We follow our favorite players whether or not they're in Twins uniforms.  Finally, I don't agree that Donaldson was worth it.  He doesn't "fit." And, if Falvine were "a fit", they would have known that. 

I've actually long giving up following favorite players. I want this team to win it all, I don't particularly care which players they do it with.

It would SEEM like winning it all would be easier with Buxton and Berrios, but if that turns out not to be the case (unlikely), sure, move on. Just like moving on from Rosario seemed like a reasonable move to improve their odds of winning a championship. One of the young prospects replacing his meager offense seemed reasonable and saving 8M to spend on free agents seemed even more reasonable. As it turned out, keeping or cutting Rosario last year would have made absolutely no difference if your only goal is to win a World Series.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I have maintained for a while that payroll may be cut.  People expecting a payroll of $150mil could be in for a huge surprise.  Believe me  I hope payroll is at 150 but most indications have been a reduced payroll.  I hope I'm wrong because this team from 2021 was unwatchable.  I think it works for Tampa because it has to.  No one goes to their games.  Plus they must have some great scouts and player development professionals.  Far better than our Twins.

150M would be a team record. 

But one bit of oddity is last year's attendance figures. For some reason Detroit has tons of helium as a free agent destination despite still being a pretty bad team. Despite them being "up and coming" they were 23rd in attendance while the Twins were (honestly shockingly to me) 19th. They were ahead of Seattle and only moderately behind the high profile clubs Washington and the LA Angels.

Seems the Twins didn't burn ALL of their goodwill last year despite the perception. Of course they do have the opportunity to burn all their goodwill this offseason if they choose to play it conservative while the other teams get bold.

[Mark G]

I am confused; Rosario meager offense?  He led the team in RBI's in both '19 and '20, including Cruz, totaling 151 in 194 games.  If that is meager, then Cruz was even more meager, and if anyone expected any of the young prospects to come within shouting distance of that, I would like to pick their brain as to how they came to that conclusion.  8 mil for an RBI leader is beyond cheap in todays game; it is a FO's dream, or at least it is to most.  Respectfully, what do you see that I don't?  

[Mike Sixel]

20 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Sorry, I meant at anything approaching market value. They’ll give free agents large dollar sums but not their own players. 

I mean, how many other players were worth multi year deals that they didn't "control"? Berrios and Buxton and? They signed those players. It is pretty clear they aren't "borderline hostile." Frugal perhaps.....but, come on.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Murph said:

Falvine doesn't understand Minnesota.  Minnesota fans care a lot about their players.  The success of this season, for Minnesota fans, was Eddie's ring (they told Eddie to "go away") and José's season. They care a lot about them!  Twins fans will choose among  their thousands of lakes if their baseball team isn't worth watching.  We follow our favorite players whether or not they're in Twins uniforms.  Finally, I don't agree that Donaldson was worth it.  He doesn't "fit." And, if Falvine were "a fit", they would have known that. 

The number 1 predictor of future attendance is wins and losses, not players. Fans want wins. The fans that buy tickets all the time, or watch the games all the time are not who the team needs to sell to. I doubt many casual fans give a rat's butt about Rosario winning this year. Heck, more than few serious ones don't. 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Respectfully, what do you see that I don't?  

The Rosario debate has been done too often. I wanted the Twins to keep Rosario. However, many saw Rosario as in decline and pointed out his faults. Much of the conversation was more aligned to allocation of financial resources and there were fair points in the posts and comments. I do wish that there was less use of past players or front office members in our posts and comments. Perhaps the use of "meager" was unnecessary. 

[gunnarthor]

One of the things that bugs me about the Buxton situation is that, had Buxton been healthier, he would absolutely priced himself out of MN. But because he has some injuries, we can afford to keep him longterm and the FO seems skittish. 

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Thebigalguy said:

but it seems clear to me that we got more in the trade for Cruz, on the end of a single year contract, than for Berrios, entering his prime.

I don't agree at all - getting Ryan and Stroman was quite the overpay for Cruz, but no credible sources were rating them as better prospects than Martin and Woods-Richardson. The 2 Berrios prospects are a fair bit younger than the 2 Cruz prospects, and you seem to be calling them better just because they are closer to the MLB level despite not having the ceiling that Martin and SWR have.

 

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

8 mil for an RBI leader is beyond cheap in todays game; it is a FO's dream, or at least it is to most. 

Even if they do give Rosario $8M, does it change anything with the 2021 season? While Eddie would have given the offense a nice boost on paper, he was awful for Cleveland in the first half of the year and missed nearly 2 months in the middle of the season with an injury. Not dissimilar to Sano's 2021 season, where he started off unplayable but got hot in the final 2/3 months, and yet he draws tons of criticism here despite the RBIs and OPS.

 

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Much of the conversation was more aligned to allocation of financial resources and there were fair points in the posts and comments. I do wish that there was less use of past players or front office members in our posts and comments.

Agreed, the root of the issue was that our available money needed to go to pitching... and yes, repeating the same Rosario debates is tiring and it looks like I'm part of the problem. There were plenty of other players who could have been signed for $8M that would have helped this team out a lot (Robbie Ray, anyone?). 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The number 1 predictor of future attendance is wins and losses, not players. Fans want wins.

This is true. It is also a reason to push a new contract for Buxton. When he plays the team wins. Ah, but the injuries and so a conundrum. 

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Do you mean besides Polanco, Kepler, Sano and Dobnak? Or are you defining those contracts differently? 

Signing Randy Dobnak to a long-term deal instead of Berrios is not exactly an argument in favor of this front office.

[chpettit19]

There's a few more comments in here about Falvey and Levine being full of themselves, or thinking they're the smartest guys in the room, or whatever other way you want to say they're overconfident in their intelligence. I find them interesting. Which front offices in any major sport do you think don't go into everything as incredibly confident people who think they're the smartest person in every room? Sticking to just baseball, there's 30 teams. That's between 30 and 60 GM/POBO jobs available depending on how each team structures their decision making trees. They're all full of themselves and think they're the smartest people in every room.

It's incredibly hard to get to the places they are and you have to be incredibly smart to get there. I'd rather have them have extreme confidence in their strategies than be constantly questioning them (not reassessing them, but being unsure of their choices). These people have far more information at their disposal than most people could even imagine. It's interesting to me that so many people are shocked by the confidence of FO personnel who have reached the pinnacle of an extremely competitive market. And being creative and finding the next "it" way to win is huge to each and every one of them. It's their jobs to outsmart the other teams. Of course they think that's what they're doing. The question is how good they are at it.