What the Hell Are the Twins Doing with Byron Buxton?

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

If the options are sign Buxton for 7/$100 million (or even 5/$100) or trade him for the return we got for Berrios, I'll take Buxton any day and it's not close.

Sure, but that wasn't at all the point of my post. 

[tony&rodney]

None of us has a clue about the actual numbers being exchanged, except there was something vaguely stated about a base of 7/$80 million. This is a ton of money. We heard/read reports of differences on incentives or a ceiling of $100 million, etc. and then it all gets muddy/unclear. The main difference of opinion I have is on the incentives. Yes, the 7/$80 million is huge money. That doesn't speak to the cost of competing in MLB. The incentives would seem to be a win/win proposition. If Buxton performs, he makes money, the Twins win when he plays, the team makes money. The incentives should start at what one might expect from a player making $11 million per year. This should be something that Falvey or his negotiator and Buxton's agent could work out between them. Certainly, most would agree that incentives could start at 120 games played or thereabouts.

Injuries happen in sports and very few athletes escape competition unscathed. The greatest baseball player of this century sat out most of this past year. He also has a huge contract going forward. The revenues from tickets, ads, etc. have already paid off for the Angels. You wouldn't find one person in their organization who regrets Trout's contract. Buxton is not Trout nor close, which is why he looks to a contract with incentives that could potentially reward him for a monster year(s).

The frustration with our current management team is somewhat normal but folks should let go of any venom in a different way. Falvey, like Ryan, Smith, and others before him, is attempting to do his job. I cannot get too angry at him personally because I don't know him. I never understood how anyone could judge Falvey as a wonder and put Ryan or Smith down. Ryan is among the most respected people in baseball, still. We are not privy to the directions from Jim Pohlad, at all. It is simplistic to think that Ryan, Falvey, or anyone else operates on their own wishes and whims with the direction of the Minnesota Twins franchise.

Buxton has been out of action too often to judge adequately or his contract would be a simple judgment call. While his past injuries are seen as a prologue to future action, that is not certain or even highly predictable. Vegas makes money on those who predict. Buxton also has not passed his prime in any fashion. This past year we saw him take the best at bats of his career, use his athleticism on the bases and in the field, and noticed that he was less reckless with his body at the fence on on useless dives. He remains a remarkable athlete and is just coming into his prime, especially with an understanding of what pitchers want to do with him. Again, he has missed a ton of games and thus an incentive-laden contract. Trades? The best I have read/heard was not interesting to me. you can find them on every site of a team that wants a good centerfielder. Aaron Hicks for Byron Buxton was one idea, but not close to the worst. I'll leave it at that.

The decision does rest with Pohlad. The one caveat, mentioned in a number of posts and replies, is whether Byron is focused on playing with the Twins. We don't have any idea about that, not even a clue from anything I have heard or read. Hopefully, a contract with incentives can be completed. All of the figuring with numbers does nothing to prove any point about whether Byron Buxton should remain with the Twins. The only way to compensate for his loss would be to sign a couple of available free agents like Starling Marte and Mark Canha for around $30-32 million and there is no guarantee that they wouldn't suffer career ending injuries next April. A rock and a hard place.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Annointing him as some sort of god is a bit far fetched. 

Relax. Baseball is a relaxing game.

[terrydactyls]

Everyone Can Calm Down Now. I figured Out the Front Office Strategy.

It came to me late last night.  It all became crystal clear.  The Twins front office does know what they are doing and here is the explanation.

The first step is to trade Buxton immediately.  He and his agent have no interest in Minnesota so we ship him out.  The trade partner is the San Diego Padres.  They need a center fielder and have some decent minor league talent.  But there is only one that is important and that is C.J Abrams, their #1 prospect and a shortstop.  Along with Abrams the Twins also get the Padres #12 prospect, LHP Ethan Elliott and their #21 prospect, RHP Steven Wilson.  But as I will show below, they are not important to the Twins as players but only has trade bait.

The second step is to contact the Oakland A’s and offer a nice package for Chris Bassitt.  The package is to pick four players from a list provided by the Twins.  The list is divided into two levels and the A’s can pick any two from the first level and any two from the second level. 

Level 1

• Luis Arraez
• Max Kepler
• Jordan Balazovic
• Keoni Cavaco
• Blaine Enlow
• Misail Urbina

Level 2

• Brent Rooker
• Aaron Sabato
• Drew Strotman
• Alerick Soularie
• Cole Sands
• Spencer Steer
• Charlie Barnes
• The Prospects obtained in the San Diego and Washington trades

The third step is to contact the Miami Marlins and offer them a similar package for RHP Sandy Alcantara and LHRP Richard Bleier.  For this pair, however, the twins offer the Marlins their choice of three from the first level 1 and three from the second level (picking from whatever Oakland left behind).

The fourth step is to off Josh Donaldson to the Washington Nationals along with $15M for any prospect in the 15 to 25 ranks.

The fifth step is to take fill out the empty roster spots with the money the Twins have freed up.  And here is how they do it.  Contact Marcus Stroman and offer him $22M/4 years.  Contact Raisel Iglesias and offer him $8M/3 years.  Contact Corey Knebel and offer him $7M/3 years.  Contact Collin McHugh and offer him $6M/2 years.  That fills out the pitching side.  For position players, the Twins lose both Kepler and Arraez in the trades above so they need replacements.  Abrams will fill the SS position and Miranda takes over 3B.  Celestino takes Buxton’s spot in CF until he proves he can’t handle MLB pitching and then either Martin or Lewis take his spot.  Kirilloff takes over in RF for Kepler.  They still need a left fielder and a 1B.  Contact Anthony Rizzo to play 1B and sign him at $20M for 4 years.  Contact Mark Canha to play left field and sign him for $10M for 3 years.

The Twins now have a $130M budget with plenty of pitching and a lot of power.  And that is what the front office is thinking.  Below is the 26-man roster after all these moves.

All Dollars Shown in Millions

Position    Player       $$$            Position       Player         $$$
C            Garver     $3.50            SP1          Alcantara     $4.50
1B          Rizzo      $20.00            SP2          Bassitt         $8.80
2B          Polanco    $5.50            SP3          Stroman     $22.00
3B          Miranda    $0.60            SP4          Ober           $0.60
SS          Abrams     $0.60            SP5          Ryan           $0.60
LF          Canha      $12.00  
CF          Celestino    $0.60            RP           Rogers        $7.00
RF          Kirilloff       $0.60            RP           Duffey         $3.50
DH         Sano          $9.25            RP           Thielbar       $1.50
                                                  RP           Alcala          $0.60
4th OF    Larnach     $0.60            RP           McHugh       $6.00
Utility     Astudillo     $1.00            RP           Knebel         $7.00
Utility     Gordon       $0.60            RP           Bleier          $2.50
2nd C     Jeffers        $0.60           RP            Iglesias       $8.00

Other Lost $$$
Maeda - SP (injured)     $3.00 
Colome - RP (buyout)    $1.25
Donaldson    (buyout)  $15.00

TOTAL Payroll    $132.30
BUDGET            $130.00
AVAILABLE           -$2.30
 

[TheLeviathan]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, Buxton has had like multiple career-threatening injuries within the past couple years. He's had several concussions. He has to understand as well as anyone that nothing is guaranteed. Safety and security are factors here, right? There is something to be said for locking down $80 million and setting your family up for generations, and not needing to worry about it anymore. I'm not sure I quite buy into the idea that this is a "cut-rate contract" he'd be moronic to sign, although obviously I find it very favorable to the Twins.

I think this needs to get pointed out more often.  Those that want to sign Buxton to the contract numbers floating around (to which I am included, I put mine at 7 years, 119M)....it's simply not fair to anyone in these discussions to frame 80M as "cut rate" or "lowball".  Given Byron's injury history it really isn't that far off.  We're talking a couple million a year, not half what he wants.  

The Twins need to stop tip-toeing around contract negotiations looking to get big wins and meet players at the table without all of the "Death by a thousand cuts" negotiating.  It may have been a factor for Berrios, it may be a factor now with Buck.  

But it needs to be repeated.....80 million dollars guaranteed for a guy with his track record is not an insult.  Clearly it favors one side, but it's in the ballpark of discussions.  In fact, Buxton's side has acknowledged this through the media in back channels.  Now the Twins just need to put on the big boy pants and finish the contract.

[Nick Nelson]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Buxton is a good player. Maybe even a great one, if every "great" year he's had didn't come with the caveat (SSS) next to it. Annointing him as some sort of god is a bit far fetched. 

No one anointed him as a god. People rightfully said Royce Lewis's talent and tools are not on the same plane as Byron Buxton, which is very obviously true and quite silly to argue with (nor is it insult to Lewis). Then you went on some long hyperbolic rant in response, invoking Barry Bonds. Tell me again what's far fetched? 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

No one anointed him as a god. People rightfully said Royce Lewis's talent and tools are not on the same plane as Byron Buxton, which is very obviously true and quite silly to argue with (nor is it insult to Lewis). Then you went on some long hyperbolic rant in response, invoking Barry Bonds. Tell me again what's far fetched? 

I gave some examples of off the charts achievements to give a frame of reference for what that might look like for tools. I'm not sorry you've recognized how Buxton's accomplishments cannot even be framed as competitve with those examples.

You literally said Buxton was off the charts on hit tool, run tool and defense which is why it was fair to compare him to Trout, who was looking like potentially the best player in MLB history, but not fair to compare Lewis to Buxton, who looks like a sub-MVP level talent on actual, real life results basis. While I don't think off the charts in any specific category would make a player super human, having all his tools off the charts is no longer something a human could reasonably accomplish in baseball. There's no way I'm going to let you walk back what you wrote on this. You essentially called Buxton super-human, i.e. a god.

That inability to reconcile Buxton's actual performance and achievements with the mental and emotional view of what he may represent is one of my biggest pet peeves surrounding this historical meltdown of Twins fans in regard to Buxton's status. The way they have elevated Buxton's theoretical limits to beyond human and then converted those theoretical limits to real world accomplishments. It's disrespectful to other baseball players who have actually been awarded things like MVPs for tremendous accomplishments on the field and it's also a disservice to Buxton himself who cannot possibly live up to the climbing hype-spiral.

Outperformed peak Trout? For 100 at bats. Wow. No player in history has ever outperformed peak full season Trout value over a 24 game sample.

• Joe Mauer - 2009 - 24 G, 104 PA, .429/.519/.881, 1.400 OPS. 1.282 WPA
• Carlos Gomez - 2013 - 24 G, 95 PA, .465/.516/.837, 1.353 OPS. 1.913 WPA
• Byron Buxton - 2021 - 24 G, 98 PA, .370/.408/.772, 1.180 OPS. 1.044 WPA
• Danny Santana. - 2014 - 24 G, 87 PA, .370/.407/.506, .913 OPS, 0.923 WPA

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/26653/the-call-up-byron-buxton/

Hit - Power(Potential) - Speed - Arm - Defense(Potential)

• Buxton(2015) - 50 - 45/60 - 85 - 60 - 70/80
• Lewis(2021) - 50 - 50/60 - 70 - 60 - 40/60 

I think that's a fair assessment of Lewis right now and a fair assessment of Buxton based on Baseball Prospectus' "call up" scouting report for the time. Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis, but the two are similar enough that just looking at a tools list wouldn't write them off as different planes of value.

[dex8425]

The numbers we're hearing probably aren't related at all to what is actually going on.  I know Jim's group isn't cheap. They will pay to keep Buxton if Derek and Thad think it's worth it. I think Derek and Thad aren't sure that paying Buxton a 100million dollar guaranteed contract is a good idea. I'm not sure it's a good idea either. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I gave some examples of off the charts achievements to give a frame of reference for what that might look like for tools. I'm not sorry you've recognized how Buxton's accomplishments cannot even be framed as competitve with those examples.

You literally said Buxton was off the charts on hit tool, run tool and defense which is why it was fair to compare him to Trout, who was looking like potentially the best player in MLB history, but not fair to compare Lewis to Buxton, who looks like a sub-MVP level talent on actual, real life results basis. While I don't think off the charts in any specific category would make a player super human, having all his tools off the charts is no longer something a human could reasonably accomplish in baseball. There's no way I'm going to let you walk back what you wrote on this. You essentially called Buxton super-human, i.e. a god.

That inability to reconcile Buxton's actual performance and achievements with the mental and emotional view of what he may represent is one of my biggest pet peeves surrounding this historical meltdown of Twins fans in regard to Buxton's status. The way they have elevated Buxton's theoretical limits to beyond human and then converted those theoretical limits to real world accomplishments. It's disrespectful to other baseball players who have actually been awarded things like MVPs for tremendous accomplishments on the field and it's also a disservice to Buxton himself who cannot possibly live up to the climbing hype-spiral.

Outperformed peak Trout? For 100 at bats. Wow. No player in history has ever outperformed peak full season Trout value over a 24 game sample.

• Joe Mauer - 2009 - 24 G, 104 PA, .429/.519/.881, 1.400 OPS. 1.282 WPA
• Carlos Gomez - 2013 - 24 G, 95 PA, .465/.516/.837, 1.353 OPS. 1.913 WPA
• Byron Buxton - 2021 - 24 G, 98 PA, .370/.408/.772, 1.180 OPS. 1.044 WPA
• Danny Santana. - 2014 - 24 G, 87 PA, .370/.407/.506, .913 OPS, 0.923 WPA

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/26653/the-call-up-byron-buxton/

Hit - Power(Potential) - Speed - Arm - Defense(Potential)

• Buxton(2015) - 50 - 45/60 - 85 - 60 - 70/80
• Lewis(2021) - 50 - 50/60 - 70 - 60 - 40/60 

I think that's a fair assessment of Lewis right now and a fair assessment of Buxton based on Baseball Prospectus' "call up" scouting report for the time. Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis, but the two are similar enough that just looking at a tools list wouldn't write them off as different planes of value.

Wait, wait, wait...did you just call out another poster for an "inability to reconcile Buxton's actual performance and achievements with the mental and emotional view of what he may represent" while simultaneously claiming Lewis is Buxton's equal??

 

Yes. Yes you did. 

 

FWIW I hope you're eventually proven correct about what Lewis may someday represent. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Wait, wait, wait...did you just call out another poster for an "inability to reconcile Buxton's actual performance and achievements with the mental and emotional view of what he may represent" while simultaneously claiming Lewis is Buxton's equal??

 

Yes. Yes you did. 

 

FWIW I hope you're eventually proven correct about what Lewis may someday represent. 

From my actual post above: Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis

I make no claims that Lewis will have a better career or produce more than Buxton. I am claiming Lewis' baseball skills are similar to Buxton. Hit tool, power tool, arm tool. Lewis' speed is supposedly a tick below Buxton and Lewis' defensive value is questionable right now because of error rates which look unplayable from years ago. In pure athletic baseball ability, Lewis and Buxton are not oceans apart.

[HerbieFan]

"Chairman Jim Pohlad, according to major-league sources, is reluctant to move Buxton, knowing such a decision potentially would upset a fan base tired of seeing the team part with homegrown stars," per The Athletic. 

And therein lies the problem.  You have ownership who understands it's fan base would be upset.  That it's a fanbase that connects to players.  You have an analytics-driven FO that looks at players as game pieces.  The Rays trade away top players consistently.  Cleveland has done the same both when Falvey was there and since he came here.  I'm afraid, Twins fans, that the Rays model most closely reflects the direction Falvey will take the organization.  The days of watching a player come up through the minors, develop and then spend a large chunk of his career in Minnesota may be over.  

I've been wondering for a couple years what direction it would go.  The trade of Berrios and the seemingly inevitable trade of Buxton should be clear indicators of what we are in for, for better or worse.

[Nick Nelson]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

From my actual post above: Buxton is scouted "better" than Lewis

I make no claims that Lewis will have a better career or produce more than Buxton. I am claiming Lewis' baseball skills are similar to Buxton. Hit tool, power tool, arm tool. Lewis' speed is supposedly a tick below Buxton and Lewis' defensive value is questionable right now because of error rates which look unplayable from years ago. In pure athletic baseball ability, Lewis and Buxton are not oceans apart.

Byron Buxton has been the fastest player in major-league baseball. He has the highest SB percentage in MLB history (min 50 attempts).

He won a Platinum Glove in CF at age 23 -- one year older than Lewis (who still hasn't settled on a position) will be next year.

He ranks 4th among all MLB players in SLG over the past 3 years (min 600 PA). He's played at a pace of 6.5 fWAR/150G over the past 3 seasons. 

Royce Lewis may turn out to be an amazing player but he's not going to do these things. Nobody's doing these things. Nobody possesses this combination of elite skills. In your attempt to prove a point you've only proven the opposite, and pinpointed exactly what makes Buxton so different and special. "Tools projections" for prospects are subjective, somewhat arbitrary, and often wildly optimistic.  Buxton has fulfilled the most lofty interpretations of his potential. That is why the Twins cannot let him leave.

That said, I will echo the sentiment of @USAFChief... I hope your highly favorable estimation of Lewis comes to fruition!  

[KFEY93]

On 11/17/2021 at 9:30 AM, tony&rodney said:

Well, here is an attempt at a short explanation. There is not a single prospect in baseball that has the combination of talents of Byron Buxton. He has a history of missing games though. Thus, the Twins will not return a single player from a trade of Byron who makes the Twins appreciably better now or in the future because teams will not risk sending their talent for an expensive one year oft-injured player. Byron Buxton has much more value to the Twins than to another team because without him the rebuild begins. Most Twins fans do not wish to watch or listen to a team that spends the next five years losing 90-120 games. Buxton might return a Trevor Larnach or Joe Ryan type player, but not multiples of those. These players are decent but will never reach the heights of Buxton. If you just want to rebuild, every player on the team making more than $1 million goes and in 5-7 years the Twins may or may not have a good team. Check on Baltimore. Your position is not irrational or uncommon, but those of us who watch most or nearly all of the Twins games have watched many dozens of prospects fail (Willie Banks, Joe Benson) and recognize the value of what is in hand. I hope you can see the keep Buxton side of an argument, even if you still don't believe in him.

You are saying all that based on the assumption that if the Twins have Buxton they still wont lose 90-100 games during the next 5 seasons, they very well could. I see the odds of them losing 90+ games a season over the next 5 years being grater than them winning 90+ games a season. With or w/o Buxton. They still have no clue what they are doing in regards to drafting, scouting, signing, grooming, coaching pitching. And until that changes, it wont matter if Buxton is here. Thats just my 2 cents. 

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, KFEY93 said:

You are saying all that based on the assumption

Sorry, no assumptions were made. The numbers are already in - the Twins do better with Buxton in the lineup than when he is not in the lineup. He is a special talent.

I wrote that "I hope you can see the Buxton side of an argument, even if you still don't believe in him." I wasn't trying to change your mind, just hoped one might see that people see things differently.

You are correct - no one can predict the future. I don't think i did. If you believe I did, now please accept that I am saying that I cannot predict the future.

11 minutes ago, KFEY93 said:

They still have no clue what they are doing in regards to drafting, scouting, signing, grooming, coaching pitching. And until that changes, it wont matter if Buxton is here. Thats just my 2 cents. 

Ok. This is a totally different topic. You have your opinions and there are sure to be reasons for those beliefs. I accept your 2 cent opinion, even though I do not agree with you. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 11/18/2021 at 7:51 AM, TheLeviathan said:

I think this needs to get pointed out more often.  Those that want to sign Buxton to the contract numbers floating around (to which I am included, I put mine at 7 years, 119M)....it's simply not fair to anyone in these discussions to frame 80M as "cut rate" or "lowball".  Given Byron's injury history it really isn't that far off.  We're talking a couple million a year, not half what he wants.  

The Twins need to stop tip-toeing around contract negotiations looking to get big wins and meet players at the table without all of the "Death by a thousand cuts" negotiating.  It may have been a factor for Berrios, it may be a factor now with Buck.  

But it needs to be repeated.....80 million dollars guaranteed for a guy with his track record is not an insult.  Clearly it favors one side, but it's in the ballpark of discussions.  In fact, Buxton's side has acknowledged this through the media in back channels.  Now the Twins just need to put on the big boy pants and finish the contract.

Buxton at $17M AAB would still be a great deal for the Twins, and even that self imposed ceiling is a 50% raise over the 80M. Maybe it's arguing semantics but I don't have a problem with lowball being used to reference that number.