What the Hell Are the Twins Doing with Byron Buxton?

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

So Nick - thanks for the article. Of your 4 suggested reasons.  What does your personal insight tell you as to what is truly the most likely reason?  I know you are giving suggestions, but what does your gut tell you is the cause?

I think it's a combination of #1 (inaccurate numbers -- I find it impossible to believe a deal wouldn't be done if those terms were legit as we're perceiving them) and #3 (Buxton doesn't want to sign an extension). 

I mentioned this on Twitter but will add it here too: If Buxton's traded, you'd like to think the Twins find a way to get their side of the story out there, because if we're left to believe they passed on a chance to extend him on a deal that would've *maxed out* at 100M over 7 years, some of us will never forgive them

[tony&rodney]

Shifting to the morose trade aspect of this debacle, we have to wonder what is available right now from another team. Is it another Joe Ryan? Does anyone have any thoughts? The suggestions from BTV, thus far, just add to our 40 person roster dilemmas or give us another ok (mediocre) guy like Urshela. Thoughts? 

[Nick Nelson]

17 hours ago, rv78 said:

I guess I am in the minority here. I don't see a trade of Buck as all that bad. He should bring one helluva return and when you consider the guy will be 28 years old, has played in the majors 7 years and has never played a full season once, why would you break the bank to keep someone like that?

You don't have to break the bank, that's the whole point! A deal that maxes out at $14M/yr is absurdly reasonable and affordable for a player of Buxton's caliber, and the only reason he'd conceivably be available at such a rate is BECAUSE of the injury history. That's why this is such a momentous opportunity for the Twins, and why fans are almost unanimously baffled and infuriated by these stalled negotiations.

If Buxton were demanding to be paid like the MVP-caliber player he is when fully healthy and producing, I think there'd be a lot more room for disagreement and more understanding of the team's position. From all indications that does not appear to be the case, or even close. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Sconnie said:

I'd be most upset if Buxton walked away from the Twins for a comp pick.

I keep remembering the Santana situation. I argued then that unless the Twins received a haul, the team would be better off with Johan pitching for the Twins. A trade of Buxton for players we already have and sticking Cave in CF hold no appeal. I agree with everything you said except I am willing to just see Buxton excel during the coming year for the Twins, even if he moves on to another team thereafter.

[LastOnePicked]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it another Joe Ryan? Does anyone have any thoughts?

My thought is this: teams know that this FO has painted themselves in a corner. Anyone expecting a "big haul" for Buxton is probably fooling themselves. And I like Joe Ryan, but Joe Ryan ain't Nolan Ryan. Joe Ryan will likely max out as a #3 starter at the very best in his career. A Joe Ryan-type for Byron Buxton trade is a disgustingly huge steal for some other team.

[Mike Sixel]

They're getting a lot more than Joe Ryan for Buxton. Think something like what Berrios brought, if the Twins take back a salary.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I keep remembering the Santana situation. I argued then that unless the Twins received a haul, the team would be better off with Johan pitching for the Twins. A trade of Buxton for players we already have and sticking Cave in CF hold no appeal. I agree with everything you said except I am willing to just see Buxton excel during the coming year for the Twins, even if he moves on to another team thereafter.

Spot on. The Twins would have been better off putting another 225 IP on Santana's arm for another season and taking the comp. And I also said so at the time. 

The difference here is, for one thing I'm having a hard time seeing the Twins compete in 2022, so another season of Buxton perhaps isn't worth much, and for another thing, the compensation system isn't what it was then, and might be even worse with the new CBA.

I probably put less value on "prospects" than just about anyone here, but unless they can sign Buxton, they need to trade him. That said...sign him, forpetesakes!

[rv78]

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, here is an attempt at a short explanation. There is not a single prospect in baseball that has the combination of talents of Byron Buxton. He has a history of missing games though. Thus, the Twins will not return a single player from a trade of Byron who makes the Twins appreciably better now or in the future because teams will not risk sending their talent for an expensive one year oft-injured player. Byron Buxton has much more value to the Twins than to another team because without him the rebuild begins. Most Twins fans do not wish to watch or listen to a team that spends the next five years losing 90-120 games. Buxton might return a Trevor Larnach or Joe Ryan type player, but not multiples of those. These players are decent but will never reach the heights of Buxton. If you just want to rebuild, every player on the team making more than $1 million goes and in 5-7 years the Twins may or may not have a good team. Check on Baltimore. Your position is not irrational or uncommon, but those of us who watch most or nearly all of the Twins games have watched many dozens of prospects fail (Willie Banks, Joe Benson) and recognize the value of what is in hand. I hope you can see the keep Buxton side of an argument, even if you still don't believe in him.

I never said the Twins had to get the return for Buxton value in a trade. I believe he will bring a good return wherever he would be traded. Hopefully someone with proven MLB talent and not some unproven prospect or two. What I would expect is if they don't use the MONEY on Buxton they could use it on a good SS that is proven and has durability. If the same amount of money is used for someone who can play everyday and impact your lineup everyday isn't that better than someone who only plays at a part-time even if he does it at a high level? 

[RpR]

They cannot afford a SS with better fielding ability than Simmons and there are few, very few; if they lost Buxton and go a lousy SS with a good bat, they would be cutting off their nose to spite their face, who is as good a fielder as Buxton that can hit like him.

[bean5302]

On 11/16/2021 at 7:09 PM, Doctor Gast said:

...What surprised me was that Berrios took Toronto's 1st offer and didn't really want to hold out for FA...

The Blue Jays started talking to Berrios about an extension almost day 1 of having him. It took 4 months to get an agreement in place.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

...There is not a single prospect in baseball that has the combination of talents of Byron Buxton...

Royce Lewis does and he's not even outside the franchise.

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Royce Lewis does and he's not even outside the franchise.

Seriously?

[bean5302]

For a 7 year veteran who's never even been an All Star selection, people sure are wound up. I don't think Buxton is worth nearly as much as other people on this site because you need 2 starting center fielders to have Buxton and the Twins would need to pay both of them because Buxton will be hurt 1/2 the season. That's just how it is.

Assume the Twins sign Buxton at $16MM / year with the expectation of competing. They'd be out of their minds not to have another starting center fielder signed because Buxton will only play 60-80 games. Say the Twins sign Starling Marte for the 4 years and $80MM and Marte spends half his time at center and half splitting time with Celestino in left.

• Buxton / Marte = $26MM year = 5.5 WAR
• Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR
• Marte / Celestino = $10MM = 2.75 WAR

WAR needed from competitive outfield = 2.5 x 3 = 7.5. Actual outfield = $42.75MM / 10.25 WAR. Surplus = 2.75 WAR. The Twins outfield will be pretty mediocre using this method.

• Marte = $20MM year = 5.0 WAR
• Kepler = $6.75MM = 2.0 WAR
• Celestinto $0.50MM = 2.0 WAR

Actual outfield = $27.25 = 9.0 WAR. 

In the keep Buxton scenario, the Twins pick up 1.25 WAR for a cost of $15.50MM. A terrible deal.

 

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Seriously?

Yes. Seriously. Lewis has plus plus speed. Lewis has a plus arm. Lewis has plus raw power. The hit tool is a bit of a question (just like Buxton). There's a reason Lewis was drafted #1 overall.

[frightwig]

If the Twins intend to be like "the Rays with money," then I'd expect that they will try to avoid expensive long-term deals with free agents or their own players who are near free agency. They'll save the long-term commitments for youngsters who can be locked up at low cost, and the expensive AAV's will be reserved for contracts of 4 years or less. Maybe the Mauer contract taught them not to commit a lot of money long-term, because even an MVP's career might be derailed by injury at any time, and I can imagine that Pohlad and/or the front office may really sweat over the idea of committing big money for 7 years to a player who hasn't even made an All-Star team because he's in a slump or on the IL more often than not. Maybe that thinking is overly risk-averse, but I could understand it.

At the same time, like I've said before, I suspect that Buxton isn't really all that interested in giving the Twins a bargain, incentive-laden deal, either. It's in his rational interest to bet on himself next year, and test the market after he might put together a breakout season. Angling for some kind of cut-rate contract at this point would indicate that he doesn't really believe in himself--which would be a red flag, and surprising from a #1 draft pick who has shown flashes of MVP-level ability. 

In either case, unless the Twins are actually willing, right now, to pay the man what he could expect to get after a breakout season in 2022, they should just trade him this winter. It sounds like that's what they want to do, anyway.

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Seriously. Lewis has plus plus speed. Lewis has a plus arm. Lewis has plus raw power. The hit tool is a bit of a question (just like Buxton). There's a reason Lewis was drafted #1 overall.

He's 22, coming off major knee surgery, hasn't advanced past AA, doesnt have a position, and has a .740 MILB OPS.

It's a long stretch at this point to put him in the same conversation as Byron Buxton. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

He's 22, coming off major knee surgery, hasn't advanced past AA, doesnt have a position, and has a .740 MILB OPS.

It's a long stretch at this point to put him in the same conversation as Byron Buxton. 

Manute Bol couldn't stretch that far!

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

He's 22, coming off major knee surgery, hasn't advanced past AA, doesnt have a position, and has a .740 MILB OPS.

It's a long stretch at this point to put him in the same conversation as Byron Buxton. 

I'm pretty sure it was a comment about no prospect in MLB having the tools Buxton does. FWIW, Twins fans sites were all calling Buxton the next Mike Trout while Trout was winning MVPs and Buxton was just out of rookie ball.

[Nick Nelson]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'm pretty sure it was a comment about no prospect in MLB having the tools Buxton does. FWIW, Twins fans sites were all calling Buxton the next Mike Trout while Trout was winning MVPs and Buxton was just out of rookie ball.

That's because Byron Buxton legitimately has a Trout-like skill set, which was on display in April when he managed to out-play peak form Mike Trout. 

I'm not sure you quite understand the extent of Buxton's tools? You can't just compare him to other players because others can run, hit, and field. He's off the charts in these categories. 

[Nick Nelson]

26 minutes ago, frightwig said:

At the same time, like I've said before, I suspect that Buxton isn't really all that interested in giving the Twins a bargain, incentive-laden deal, either. It's in his rational interest to bet on himself next year, and test the market after he might put together a breakout season. Angling for some kind of cut-rate contract at this point would indicate that he doesn't really believe in himself--which would be a red flag, and surprising from a #1 draft pick who has shown flashes of MVP-level ability. 

I mean, Buxton has had like multiple career-threatening injuries within the past couple years. He's had several concussions. He has to understand as well as anyone that nothing is guaranteed. Safety and security are factors here, right? There is something to be said for locking down $80 million and setting your family up for generations, and not needing to worry about it anymore. I'm not sure I quite buy into the idea that this is a "cut-rate contract" he'd be moronic to sign, although obviously I find it very favorable to the Twins.

[nova_twins]

The part that gets me is - the Twins have very little long-term money on the books. What exactly is the trade-off here?

Is there some funny business going on with Pohlad's budget? I never really believed that Terry Ryan just enjoyed being cheap or whatever all those years . . . if fingers start pointing at Falvine over the payroll being low, surely it means that Pohlad is in the background.

Folks are just grasping at straws though, because we just can't make sense of it . . . guys like Buxton are the key to winning the World Series . . . there is no media reporting that Buxton's asking price is crazy high. The reporting numbers seem incomplete in some way, because otherwise it seems inconceivable that the Twins would be holding out on him. Maybe some crazy opt outs or something?

I've been supportive of Falvine from the beginning but this issue could flip that. I'm just hoping, without any actual basis, that they're going to extend him. It's hard for me to even process alternate scenarios right now. 

[howeda7]

If the reported #'s are even within 50% accurate there is ZERO reason not to have the extension done already. The only answer is the Falvey is too arrogant/incompetent to finish a slam dunk or Pohlad is squeezing the purse strings super tight and they're planning to have a $70 million payroll. The former is far more likely the case. This is beyond frustrating. It's disgusting. Enough to be done with this team until either Falvey, the Pohlads or both are gone.

[SwainZag]

I love Buxton and think he has all the talent in the world.  By far the most pure talent Twins in a long time.  But unless you give him a highly incentivized contract based on actually being on the field.....is it worth it?

If it were just a shoulder problem, or a wrist that kept acting up, I think it would be different.  But Byron definitely is prone to getting injured...and it's not just playing the field.  He has been hurt at the plate and on the base paths as well.

In the last 4 years, which IMO age 24-27 is or should be prime years for a baseball player, Buxton has been on the field a shade less than 39.5% of the time.   215 out of a possible 544 games.  How many guys  get injured a ton in the early parts of their career only to start getting healthy the latter portion?  I doubt it's that often and is usually the other way around.  Also, it's not like he was iron man before he got to the Twins either.

The issue comes in, what is Buxton worth if say....he can only play 50% of the team's games?  He was incredible last season when healthy but even then he had career highs across the board.  He did build on a nice 2020, but it's not like he has been putting up those wild 2021 numbers for years now.  

The Twins discussing what to do doesn't surprise me at all.  I would love for them to sign him to an extension, but I do I blame them for seeing what some other team would give up? Not one bit.  I do think they are a bit between a rock and a hard spot with him though.  He knows when healthy he can put up MVP type numbers.  The Twins know this too.  They both know he hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy in his decade in the organization.  Hopefully there's a sweet spot they can agree on.

 

 

 

 

[howeda7]

14 hours ago, prouster said:

My guess is that Falvey has a number in mind that he isn’t willing to cross, even by a little. Doogie tweeted that they came nowhere close to what Toronto offered for Berrios, so the same thing could be playing out here.

Then Falvey is incompetent and should be fired immediately. It makes no sense that he will give Josh Donaldson $23 million/year and balk at giving Buxton $15 much less $20.

[howeda7]

11 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

The part that gets me is - the Twins have very little long-term money on the books. What exactly is the trade-off here?

 

Exactly this. Not only do they have $0 committed past 2023, but who are they going to keep who's expensive. Donaldson will be gone. Sano will be gone. Maeda will be gone. Kepler will be gone. Maybe they keep Polanco. But who else is going to be expensive in 2024, 2025, 2026? MAYBE Kiriloff and Joe Ryan if we're lucky. Even if we're going to truck along at $120 million payrolls, which is lower than it should be, we STILL can easily afford Buxton.

[howeda7]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They're getting a lot more than Joe Ryan for Buxton. Think something like what Berrios brought, if the Twins take back a salary.

Getting the Berrios return when you could have Buxton for what is being reports is still a terrible decision.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Getting the Berrios return when you could have Buxton for what is being reports is still a terrible decision.

I'm not sure what you are saying.

[frightwig]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

A deal that maxes out at $14M/yr is absurdly reasonable and affordable for a player of Buxton's caliber...

I suppose that this has occurred to Buxton and his agent, too. And if any deal would be absurdly reasonable for the club, why would he want to do it? He has all the leverage here. 

Quote

If Buxton were demanding to be paid like the MVP-caliber player he is when fully healthy and producing, I think there'd be a lot more room for disagreement and more understanding of the team's position. From all indications that does not appear to be the case, or even close. 

I think one, or maybe both sides, is probably lying to the media. In any case, the goal is probably just to let people think, "hey, we tried." Maybe Buxton would like the fans to believe that he's been absurdly reasonable in his efforts to stay in Minnesota, because he doesn't want to be seen as a greedy villain, particularly if he has to play another season with the Twins. Maybe his agent thinks it's a way to keep the lines open with the front office, too. Meanwhile, maybe the Twins like the story because, from their point of view, figures like 7 years and $100M for an oft-injured player really feels like a huge risk (even if the AAV isn't that high, the idea of committing to 7 years seems to give them the shivers), and they think the average fan could be persuaded to see it their way, too. As long as they can put together an alternate plan to field a winning team before too long, they'd probably be right about that. 

[howeda7]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what you are saying.

If the options are sign Buxton for 7/$100 million (or even 5/$100) or trade him for the return we got for Berrios, I'll take Buxton any day and it's not close.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

That's because Byron Buxton legitimately has a Trout-like skill set, which was on display in April when he managed to out-play peak form Mike Trout. 

I'm not sure you quite understand the extent of Buxton's tools? You can't just compare him to other players because others can run, hit, and field. He's off the charts in these categories. 

You're right. Royce Lewis... chopped liver. What a bummer the Twins were forced to draft him #1 overall. There's Byron Buxton and then humans. I'm not sure Buxton shouldn't just walk to the plate when he's hurt and have the pitchers kneel while allowing him to walk around the bases for an inside the park home run while in his casts.

When Buxton breaks the single season home run record set by Barry Bonds of 73 in 2001 while simultaneously being the first hitter to bat .400 since Ted Williams in 1941, it'll certainly be the same year as he sprints far faster than any MLB player and throws harder than Aaron Hicks' 105.5mph throw in 2016. I bet Buxton will get a special exemption and play for 2 teams at the same time one day game and one night game per day and not miss a single game while racking up 50 WAR next year. Easy.

What makes Buxton special isn't him being peerless in every category, it's him being excellent in most categories. Buxton's hit tool is a 40-50, tops. The guy is a career .248 hitter with a .299 OBP and there were serious questions about it by the time he was debuting at MLB. Buxton was the fastest player in MLB by a solid 0.5ft/sec. He'd probably grade as an 85 speed (if there was such a thing) before he gained weight for power and perceived durability. There's probably nothing else which could be graded as "80" or better based on the real data rather than hype. His fastest throw from the outfield? 99mph. Most home runs? 19. Highest batting average ever? .306. Highest OBP ever? .358. Let's get back to reality; Buxton isn't even a top 3 center fielder over his career. Bader, Kiermaier and Hamilton all have higher UZR/150s than Buxton from 2015-2021 among players with at least 2,000 innings at CF.

Buxton is a good player. Maybe even a great one, if every "great" year he's had didn't come with the caveat (SSS) next to it. Annointing him as some sort of god is a bit far fetched.