Trade Target: Luis Castillo

[Nash Walker]

As we all know, the Minnesota Twins need pitching, and need some high-end pitching. Free agency is not the only way to acquire players. The Twins may have to investigate trade possibilities, and the Cincinnati Reds are a team looking to make deals and have a true, young ace. 

Jon Morosi reported Monday that Reds starter Luis Castillo could be on the move this offseason. His availability presents a prime opportunity for the Twins.

THE PLAYER
Luis Castillo, 28, is precisely the type of pitcher the Twins should be seeking. An established, hard-throwing right-hander who’s under team control through 2023 at modest salaries. 

Castillo is already an excellent, durable starter. He’s thrown 618 innings since 2018, the 10th most in MLB. His ERA+ of 123 since 2017 (100 is average) ties him with Marcus Stroman for the 11th highest. Castillo is elite at limiting home runs and missing barrels. 

Castillo’s 10.7 Wins Above Replacement since 2019 trails only Lance Lynn (15), Jacob deGrom (14.9), Gerrit Cole (14.4), Zack Wheeler (14.4), Max Scherzer (13.6), and Lucas Giolito (11). 

Most excitingly, Castillo’s stuff - a 97 mph fastball, a devastating 88 mph changeup, and a fantastic 86 mph slider - provide dreamable upside. Over his final 20 starts of 2021, Castillo posted a 2.69 ERA. He's a Cy Young candidate in 2022. 

THE COST
Oh boy. A ton. For all of the reasons listed above, plenty of teams will vie for Castillo. He’s projected to make $7.6 million in 2022 and, with a strong season, could get $10 or $11 million in 2023. Call it two years and $18 million. That’s an incredible bargain.

The Reds have signaled that they’re ready to slash payroll this offseason. Castillo and fellow starter Sonny Gray would likely be the most sought-after in an overhaul. Castillo’s upside, though, makes him the one to target. 

MLB Trade Simulators is an imperfect tool but can give us a sniff of player values. Castillo’s is predictably hefty. According to the simulator, the Twins would need to part with Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, and Matt Canterino (or a package of similar value).

The Twins have no track record of paying such a price. But with three gaping holes in the rotation and an embarrassing summer to overcome, do they have the right to be conservative this winter?

THE BOTTOM LINE
The Twins must address at least one rotation hole via the trade market. It’s simply untenable to sign three quality starters via free agency. The Twins don’t have the payroll or the leverage. 

We’ve heard many excuses of why free-agent starters don’t choose Minnesota. The weather, the income tax, the contract offer, and so on. The Twins can rarely secure a player of Castillo’s ilk and upside. They can finally make a splash and a statement.

By trading for Castillo, the Twins would signal that they are serious about 2022 and 2023. The move would alert free agents - Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, and others - that you’re committed to improving and winning. 

The Twins indeed had opportunities to make impactful moves in recent years. Those chances are gone. What matters now is how aggressive they are in living up to the notion that a “rebuild” is not in the cards. If you’re going to do it, do it. 

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[mikelink45]

I would take him - the question is - what would the Reds take for him?  Buxton is not under control as long as Castillo is and will cost more - the Reds are the A's of the NL and do not want cost.  Could Kepler fill the void that is coming in RF?  Which young arm would you add to the trade?  Luis Arraez?  I think it is at least a three for one.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Nash, enjoyed your article. Last year they wanted a top prospect in return, so I imagine they still do. Baseball Trade Values (BTV) is a good source of general unbias trade values but you can't always go by them exactly because each team has specific needs, goals and motivation (TB usually puts their hyped up player on the market and try to squeeze out the most out of them or they don't trade, on the other hand if a team is going through a  rebuild or salary dump, they are more motivated). But if you can line them up, you can come close.

I don't know how motivated CIN is, this might be a ploy again. They might be just looking to see how much they can get for him. But I feel they are motivated to trade because his stock has fallen and will continue to fall. Also it might be window dressing to attract teams in to look at other players. I'd throw our best pieces out there if all of them don't fit, I'd go through a 3rd team (like OAK) to get it done. 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Arraez probably doesn't work here Mike because the reds have N.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jonathon India at 2B and Suarez at 3B.  What the reds REALLY need is a SS.  But so do we.  Once they move on from Castellanos and Winker they will be desperate for corner OF'ers.  Larnach and Kepler could be in the mix, but the BTV of Castillo is HIGH.  I could go Lewis, Canterino and Larnach, but I'd never include BOTH Lewis and Martin in the same deal.  He would be our Berrios replacement and even though he would be expensive going forward, you would trade for him to KEEP him.  Long term.

[Heiny]

MLB Trade Simulators is an imperfect tool but can give us a sniff of player values. Castillo’s is predictably hefty. According to the simulator, the Twins would need to part with Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, and Matt Canterino (or a package of similar value).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           If that is the cost, I would say "Hell No".   I would rather start a complete rebuild.  I want to see all three of these guys in Twins MLB uniforms someday soon.  (Two years max?)

[specialiststeve]

22 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Arraez probably doesn't work here Mike because the reds have N.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jonathon India at 2B and Suarez at 3B.  What the reds REALLY need is a SS.  But so do we.  Once they move on from Castellanos and Winker they will be desperate for corner OF'ers.  Larnach and Kepler could be in the mix, but the BTV of Castillo is HIGH.  I could go Lewis, Canterino and Larnach, but I'd never include BOTH Lewis and Martin in the same deal.  He would be our Berrios replacement and even though he would be expensive going forward, you would trade for him to KEEP him.  Long term.

Yah ... if their needing Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, and Matt Canterino... for 2 years of service as not likely we would be able to resign him.... hard pass. 

[saviking]

Castillo would be great but let's not give up the farm .. If we could get him for Lewis and say, three prospects ranked between 20 and 40 I'm in but not three top prospects like the trade simulator says.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins offer Arraez and Enlow plus a lower milb player for Castillo and Suarez. Does taking Moustakas in place of Suarez help? The Reds are tough to line up with this year. 

[Otaknam]

Martin AND Lewis plus pitchers is too high a price for two years of Castillo, especially since the Buxton extension is not done. How about one of the two from Martin and Lewis, Kepler, and a pitcher. 

[Major League Ready]

We got SWR and Martin for a year and 2 months of Berrios who is not as good as Castillo so I would assume it will take a package offering more than SWR and Martin.  I think they would ask for us to add someone along the lines of Miranda or Winder.

[farmerguychris]

I'd be pleased if we could make that move - but not for both Lewis and Martin.  I'd be ok with Martin plus others, but not both SS's in our pipeline.  Martin, Kepler, and someone in our 20-25 prospect range.

We got Martin for Berrios - that seems like a pretty high level offer to me.

[Nash Walker]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks Nash, enjoyed your article. Last year they wanted a top prospect in return, so I imagine they still do. Baseball Trade Values (BTV) is a good source of general unbias trade values but you can't always go by them exactly because each team has specific needs, goals and motivation (TB usually puts their hyped up player on the market and try to squeeze out the most out of them or they don't trade, on the other hand if a team is going through a  rebuild or salary dump, they are more motivated). But if you can line them up, you can come close.

I don't know how motivated CIN is, this might be a ploy again. They might be just looking to see how much they can get for him. But I feel they are motivated to trade because his stock has fallen and will continue to fall. Also it might be window dressing to attract teams in to look at other players. I'd throw our best pieces out there if all of them don't fit, I'd go through a 3rd team (like OAK) to get it done. 

 

Thanks Doc! I agree this could absolutely be a ploy. 

[Greglw3]

12 hours ago, Heiny said:

MLB Trade Simulators is an imperfect tool but can give us a sniff of player values. Castillo’s is predictably hefty. According to the simulator, the Twins would need to part with Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, and Matt Canterino (or a package of similar value).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           If that is the cost, I would say "Hell No".   I would rather start a complete rebuild.  I want to see all three of these guys in Twins MLB uniforms someday soon.  (Two years max?)

I have to agree. All 3 of those prospects could be stars. It would be tempting, especially if doing a quick strike trade could cause a Stroman and Ray to fall to the Twins like dominoes. By the way, if the Reds are interested in Kepler, I have no problem including him in a trade. 

[DocBauer]

Just playing devil's advocate, the proposed package is a lot to give up for 2yrs. IF the QO remains, the Twins could have him for 3yrs. And that's intriguing to say the least! And I'm not saying he couldn't be re-signed, but if he keeps his proposed trajectory, that re-sign could be tough.

That being said, I could jump on this idea with the 3yr window opportunity if it was Larnach, (who I really hate to give up), and ONE of Lewis/Martin with Canterino and maybe a low A sweetener tossed in. And I'm looking at both sides here, what the Twins are willing to give up and what the Reds want/need. Were I the Reds...not knowing their system but hearing it's not all that great...i think I'd be focused on Martin/Larnach, Canterino, and a Sands/Varland type of return for my re-build. I get 3 Twins prospects that are all probably top 15, at least top 20, coming in to 2022. The Twins MIGHT even throw in someone like Vallimont, borderline 40 man roster protect, but should fit in with them and their 40 man who could still be a ML SP, but who also has huge upside as a bullpen piece. 

Anyway you slice it, the Twins give  up a ton and the Reds get some very nice high upside pieces. It's the only 2yrs guaranteed that bothers me.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather re-sign Pineda, or equivalent, another quality FA arm...debatable as to who for sure....and make a lesser deal with the A's for one of their available arms and add a quality arm or two to the pen and keep the majority of my system intact for another season. 

I feel doing that, as long as I don't just make "settling" choices, I have a team that can really compete. And I have so many good young players that are just so close to playing and pitching for the good nucleus  I have in place that I'd just rather not make a move for ONE GUY at 2yrs right now.

[MGM4706]

Twins are already hinting at going with 3-5 inning starters. So no Ace in their thoughts which means no playoffs again!! Tigers are the team to challenge White Sox! Tigers are dealing already and Scherzer is on the top of their list!

[ashbury]

Fun to think about but we don't line up that well in terms of excess prospect talent to offer, and literally 28 other teams will at least kick the tires to find out how serious the Reds are.  The thought-exercise in this article shows why.  We'll get outbid, probably by a team who feels that their window is now.

[Rosterman]

What can you trade to get the guy in the off-season.

 

Would will his value be mid-season for a contender.

 

Any players you trade, where did you see them longterm helping the Twins.

 

Royce Lewis may be one of the higher trade chips that the Twins can dangle because of potential, but he is still at least a season away from pulling good fulltime work, in the scheme of things. If he has a bad minor elageu season, does he start trending to be a Nick Gordon? That would be the big gamble.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

On 11/12/2021 at 9:33 PM, DocBauer said:

Just playing devil's advocate, the proposed package is a lot to give up for 2yrs. IF the QO remains, the Twins could have him for 3yrs. And that's intriguing to say the least! And I'm not saying he couldn't be re-signed, but if he keeps his proposed trajectory, that re-sign could be tough.

That being said, I could jump on this idea with the 3yr window opportunity if it was Larnach, (who I really hate to give up), and ONE of Lewis/Martin with Canterino and maybe a low A sweetener tossed in. And I'm looking at both sides here, what the Twins are willing to give up and what the Reds want/need. Were I the Reds...not knowing their system but hearing it's not all that great...i think I'd be focused on Martin/Larnach, Canterino, and a Sands/Varland type of return for my re-build. I get 3 Twins prospects that are all probably top 15, at least top 20, coming in to 2022. The Twins MIGHT even throw in someone like Vallimont, borderline 40 man roster protect, but should fit in with them and their 40 man who could still be a ML SP, but who also has huge upside as a bullpen piece. 

Anyway you slice it, the Twins give  up a ton and the Reds get some very nice high upside pieces. It's the only 2yrs guaranteed that bothers me.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather re-sign Pineda, or equivalent, another quality FA arm...debatable as to who for sure....and make a lesser deal with the A's for one of their available arms and add a quality arm or two to the pen and keep the majority of my system intact for another season. 

I feel doing that, as long as I don't just make "settling" choices, I have a team that can really compete. And I have so many good young players that are just so close to playing and pitching for the good nucleus  I have in place that I'd just rather not make a move for ONE GUY at 2yrs right now.

Not sure I am following the QO part of this.  If he performs to a level that a QO would keep him here the trade will have been an epic failure.  Am I missing something?