A case against signing the top free agents

[Monkeypaws]

All these threads, pipe dreams, about signing top free agents, I don't get it.

Free agents should be an add to a solid team, which the Twins are on the margin of, but not really.

I really believe the best teams are predominantly home grown: the Twins championship teams are an example. The great Yankees teams of recent years had a solid homegrown core, like wise the Red Sox, Giants.

Draft and develop is still the best way for a middle market team to succeed. I'd love to see the Twins take an aggressive approach to promotion of prospects instead of signing AAAA fodder filler like the bullpen of 2021.

Draft them then give them a chance dammit.

I truly don't see any reason other than overpay why a top FA would sign here. Not a solid way to move forward.

[TwinsDr2021]

Hasn't this been the plan for about 40 years, since that 82 team?

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

All these threads, pipe dreams, about signing top free agents, I don't get it.

Free agents should be an add to a solid team, which the Twins are on the margin of, but not really.

I really believe the best teams are predominantly home grown: the Twins championship teams are an example. The great Yankees teams of recent years had a solid homegrown core, like wise the Red Sox, Giants.

Draft and develop is still the best way for a middle market team to succeed. I'd love to see the Twins take an aggressive approach to promotion of prospects instead of signing AAAA fodder filler like the bullpen of 2021.

Draft them then give them a chance dammit.

I truly don't see any reason other than overpay why a top FA would sign here. Not a solid way to move forward.

Add the Royals and Rays to that list.  I agree it's just not financially feasible for a mid or small market team to build a contender by signing multiple top end free agents.  History is quite clear on this subject.  However, that won't stop fans on insisting the key is spending.  The Dodgers can sign five of them and have our budget left over.  Fans say they want a contender but many of the most ardent fans want immediate improvement.  

The FO just might take the quick fix approach if they think that's what's best for the bottom line.  The best path to a real contender is to develop the rather deep pool of pitching prospects, sign Buxton,  and transition Miranda, Martin, and Lewis.  Oddly, this approach would also provide the payroll room to add a final piece or two through free agency.  That approach would take a year or perhaps two and lots of fans don't even want to consider a plan that does not maximize next year.

[bean5302]

Twins roster.

• C = Solid
• 1B = Solid
• 2B = Solid
• 3B = Solid
• SS = ?
• LF = ?
• CF = Solid
• RF = Solid
• DH = Solid
• BC = Solid
• UI = Solid
• UO = Solid
• SP1 = ?
• SP2 = ?
• SP3 = Sketchy
• SP4 = Solid
• SP5 = Solid
• Cl = Solid
• RP1/RP7

The Twins have some big question marks, but it's not like they have a dozen holes. The team is mostly there already and almost all of it is grown "in house." That said, several of the Twins are no longer $350,000 league minimum 23 year olds and the pipeline probably isn't going to solve any of their problems this year. So the real question is rebuild or go for it. Retooling (which is what they've hinted at doing) is a waste of time, IMHO.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Twins roster.

• C = Solid
• 1B = Solid
• 2B = Solid
• 3B = Solid
• SS = ?
• LF = ?
• CF = Solid
• RF = Solid
• DH = Solid
• BC = Solid
• UI = Solid
• UO = Solid
• SP1 = ?
• SP2 = ?
• SP3 = Sketchy
• SP4 = Solid
• SP5 = Solid
• Cl = Solid
• RP1/RP7

The Twins have some big question marks, but it's not like they have a dozen holes. The team is mostly there already and almost all of it is grown "in house." That said, several of the Twins are no longer $350,000 league minimum 23 year olds and the pipeline probably isn't going to solve any of their problems this year. So the real question is rebuild or go for it. Retooling (which is what they've hinted at doing) is a waste of time, IMHO.

So, would you go for it or rebuild?

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

.  The best path to a real contender is to develop the rather deep pool of pitching prospects, sign Buxton,  and transition Miranda, Martin, and Lewis.  Oddly, this approach would also provide the payroll room to add a final piece or two through free agency.  That approach would take a year or perhaps two and lots of fans don't even want to consider a plan that does not maximize next year.

Is this what the FO has been doing since it got here? The only real money the FO has really spent is on Donaldson, and now the fans or the owners should be happy with another two years?

The real problem has been Falvey was hired at the end of 2016 and they haven't built a pitching staff from within, they currently have a fairly deep of pitching prospects but....

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is this what the FO has been doing since it got here? The only real money the FO has really spent is on Donaldson, and now the fans or the owners should be happy with another two years?

The real problem has been Falvey was hired at the end of 2016 and they haven't built a pitching staff from within, they currently have a fairly deep of pitching prospects but....

They have two young pitchers right now. They lost a year to Covid. How many should be in the majors?

I think Cruz was real money. Also, the team's highest payrolls? All under this FO. 

As for the OP......almost no team is built without trades and FA signings. At least the winners. The Rays are it. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is this what the FO has been doing since it got here? The only real money the FO has really spent is on Donaldson, and now the fans or the owners should be happy with another two years?

The real problem has been Falvey was hired at the end of 2016 and they haven't built a pitching staff from within, they currently have a fairly deep of pitching prospects but....

There are not any mid or small market teams that spend in the fashion that is promoted here are a regular basis.  It's not a Twins thing.  It's just very improbable for a below average revenue team to build a contender that way.  There are numerous examples and history.  Stop and look beyond this team for examples of success and failure.  Do you really think every GM from a below average revenue team is incompetent?  Those teams success is more predicated on trading establish players for prospects or MLB players yet to be established performers.  Of course, the develop talent first and foremost.  

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There are not any mid or small market teams that spend in the fashion that is promoted here are a regular basis.  It's not a Twins thing.  It's just very improbable for a below average revenue team to build a contender that way.  There are numerous examples and history.  Stop and look beyond this team for examples of success and failure.  Do you really think every GM from a below average revenue team is incompetent?  Those teams success is more predicated on trading establish players for prospects or MLB players yet to be established performers.  Of course, the develop talent first and foremost.  

Not many of those teams are winning multiple division titles.......so I guess it depends on what the measure of success is. Mild success, with the occasional great (short lived) success while making money vs winning more but making less money. It is a business, so the first makes sense.....that doesn't mean a fan has to like it. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not many of those teams are winning multiple division titles.......so I guess it depends on what the measure of success is. Mild success, with the occasional great (short lived) success while making money vs winning more but making less money. It is a business, so the first makes sense.....that doesn't mean a fan has to like it. 

OK.  Which below average revenue team is winning multiple division titles?

 

BTW ... The whole rag on profit thing is pure financial ignorance.  If all of the teams spent every dime they made after operating costs ABSOLUTELY NOTHING would change.  Profit has ZERO to do with the problem.  The financial disparity would actually increase so can we quit with the "profit is the problem" BS?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

OK.  Which below average revenue team is winning multiple division titles?

I'm not sure I understand your point. None?

Which was my point.....picking your success measure matters when saying some teams are more successful than others. I literally said occasionally winning and making money was likely the right measure in that post.......but that didn't align with what fans want. 

[Major League Ready]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure I understand your point. None?

Which was my point.....picking your success measure matters when saying some teams are more successful than others. I literally said occasionally winning and making money was likely the right measure in that post.......but that didn't align with what fans want. 

The point is very simple.  Why do fans want our team to follow practices that have little chance for success.  The fact that small market teams can't do what the Dodgers do (resign their best players) to sustain success is economic reality.  Same point different angle of approach .... There are practices that have been proven to effective.  To pursue less viable practices is incompetent.

 

If your household earned an average income, would it make sense for a spouse top complain about not spending like a household with 2X the income?  If people want to complain about the revenue discrepancy, OK.  However, to complain the front office won't follow bad practice is not exactly logical.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

They have two young pitchers right now. They lost a year to Covid. How many should be in the majors?

I think Cruz was real money. Also, the team's highest payrolls? All under this FO. 

As for the OP......almost no team is built without trades and FA signings. At least the winners. The Rays are it. 

Not sure what the number should be, but probably higher than 250 innings (ober, ryan and Dobnak)

Maybe Cruz was real money it was 14 with an option for 12, so if he wouldn't have worked out it would have been much, a one year contract is never bad right? (the Twins paid him just over 26 million in his time here.)

IMO the Twins FO have straddled the fence since they got here, and that is why they are in the position they are in.

I have no interest in giving this FO another rebuild, if they were to clean house an bring another FO in, I could back another rebuild.

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So, would you go for it or rebuild?

I'd go for it. The Twins have a bunch of pitching prospects with high upside and some logjammed high end talent on the 40 man roster they could trade for components they need. The Twins need a #1 and #2 starter. If Maeda comes back next year (I'm skeptical) they could really have a great rotation.

Trade Sano, Larnach, Arraez, Buxton and maybe a prospect or two for other prospects, a #2 and a outfielder who can cover center in case Celestino can't make it as a starter. Sign Escobar, Verlander. Move Donaldson to DH.

Something like that.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The point is very simple.  Why do fans want our team to follow practices that have little chance for success.  The fact that small market teams can't do what the Dodgers do (resign their best players) to sustain success is economic reality.  Same point different angle of approach .... There are practices that have been proven to effective.  To pursue less viable practices is incompetent.

 

If your household earned an average income, would it make sense for a spouse top complain about not spending like a household with 2X the income?  If people want to complain about the revenue discrepancy, OK.  However, to complain the front office won't follow bad practice is not exactly logical.

nowhere in my post did I say any of that? 

As for fans, they a: aren't rational, hence the word fanatic. b: they don't give a damn if the pohlads have 20MM less in savings. Why should they? They want their team to win. 

The only reason no mid-market team does what the dodgers do is because they are rational business owners, not because they can't. Again, it is about what your success measure is. A fan wants wins. An owner wants money (and maybe wins)......which, I still have no idea what you are arguing since we seem to be in agreement, yet your posts seem like we aren't?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not sure what the number should be, but probably higher than 250 innings (ober, ryan and Dobnak)

Maybe Cruz was real money it was 14 with an option for 12, so if he wouldn't have worked out it would have been much, a one year contract is never bad right? (the Twins paid him just over 26 million in his time here.)

IMO the Twins FO have straddled the fence since they got here, and that is why they are in the position they are in.

I have no interest in giving this FO another rebuild, if they were to clean house an bring another FO in, I could back another rebuild.

 

another? They literally built up the team to the division winners in 2-3 years......they didn't "rebuild" before....they built on what was there, traded for players, and signed free agents......

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

nowhere in my post did I say any of that? 

As for fans, they a: aren't rational, hence the word fanatic. b: they don't give a damn if the pohlads have 20MM less in savings. Why should they? They want their team to win. 

The only reason no mid-market team does what the dodgers do is because they are rational business owners, not because they can't. Again, it is about what your success measure is. A fan wants wins. An owner wants money (and maybe wins)......which, I still have no idea what you are arguing since we seem to be in agreement, yet your posts seem like we aren't?

Honestly, I am not sure if we agree or not.  I guess my point is that any sustained success for a mid or small market team is far more likely to be a product of developing prospects or trading established players for prospects or ML ready talent that is still unproven at the MLB level.  Obviously, free agents can and should play a role but a small or mid market team is not going to be successful by signing top free agents or trading for established players.

Part of Tampa's success is that they understand 6 years of control is much better than 2 years of control.  I have said more than once that I don't expect fans to be rationale.  However, in leagues where there is a salary cap, fans become quite rational about spending.  You are still playing the profit card. 

So, let's get real.  Don't dodge the question.  How would it change anything for the Twins if MLB owners operated at break-even.  You can even assume that they very worst teams didn't spend aggressively.  Anyone else is welcome to explain to me how the Twins ability to construct a roster would change if MLB teams operated at B/E.  I am predicting no response.

[Rosterman]

The reality is WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST FREE AGENT SALARIES the Twins have ever paid!

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The reality is WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST FREE AGENT SALARIES the Twins have ever paid!

It's surprising to you that the teams with far more revenue sign the most expensive players.  The angst that people feel for this is really misplaced.  One, no kidding teams with twice as much revenue sign the most expensive players.  Two, paying that high a percentage of salary to any given player is a recipe for failure. 

As I predicted, a response that does not touch the question how would it make any difference to the twins roster construction if MLB teams operated at break-even?  ALl this bitching about profit.  I would love to see someone articulate how it matters.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I disagree with the idea that the Pohlads and Twins can’t or shouldn’t spend on free agency.

I understand that they’ll never be big spenders, but they have the ability to sign more players in the same vein as Donaldson. I don’t think they will… but they can and should. Winning teams get better revenue and better TV contracts. Success breeds success, and no team has a perpetual development pipeline (except the Rays) and trades and free agents must be used to fill gaps.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is this what the FO has been doing since it got here? The only real money the FO has really spent is on Donaldson, and now the fans or the owners should be happy with another two years?

The real problem has been Falvey was hired at the end of 2016 and they haven't built a pitching staff from within, they currently have a fairly deep of pitching prospects but....

While I’m skeptical of the pitching pipeline we were promised in 2017, the pandemic threw literally everything sideways in this organization. Everyone, and I mean damned near EVERYONE, was injured in 2021.

It’s basically impossible to build a pitching pipeline if you start in June of 2017, everything in the world flips on its head in 2020, and then injuries ravage your org in 2021.

We’ll see what happens in 2022. 

[MABB1959]

On 11/11/2021 at 12:37 AM, Monkeypaws said:

I truly don't see any reason other than overpay why a top FA would sign here. Not a solid way to move forward.

I wish we could find out which players they make offers to that will not come to MN.  I hope they are wondering why and will fix that.   Even the few top players that have come up with the Twins are gone and doing quite well with their new teams.  Kind of like a chicken/egg thing we can't contend w/o top players but no one wants to come her.  Cruz was our best FA signing in a long time and they let him go.  Berrios was the best pitcher developed since J Santana and they let him go.  Buxton the best outfield since KP is on his way out the door.  There goes all of chickens and now we have mostly just eggs left.

[MABB1959]

I don't see much outrage over losing Liam Hendricks the reliever of the year.  Would this new FO have seen the potential?   

[MABB1959]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

another? They literally built up the team to the division winners in 2-3 years......they didn't "rebuild" before....they built on what was there, traded for players, and signed free agents......

Winning in the ALC is not winning if they don't progress at least one round in the playoffs.  The Twins can't even win a game so the me the ALC is worth nothing but 3 extra depressing games.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Sconnie said:

I disagree with the idea that the Pohlads and Twins can’t or shouldn’t spend on free agency.

I understand that they’ll never be big spenders, but they have the ability to sign more players in the same vein as Donaldson. I don’t think they will… but they can and should. Winning teams get better revenue and better TV contracts. Success breeds success, and no team has a perpetual development pipeline (except the Rays) and trades and free agents must be used to fill gaps.

I can't imagine there is a single person here who does not think the Twins should spend in free agency nor does the FO think they should not attempt to land those players.  The disconnect is that some of us are saying that a team with below average revenue is never going to succeed with a heavy reliance on high-end free agents.  Feel free to show us examples of where it has worked.  Where free agency has worked is when mid market teams sign good free agents that perform like the higher priced guys.  IE. The Rays signing Charlie Morton. 

I don't know where you are going to come up with these examples but below revenue teams land very few of the elite free agents.  Therefore, finding a low revenue team as an example probably does not exist.  We can come up with teams with considerably more revenue than the Twins that have gone this route and failed.  The Mets, Phillies, and Angles have all been trying to succeed with high end free agents.  How has that worked.  SanDiego signed Machado and traded for three high profile pitchers.  How did that work?  They even have the benefit of having acquired one of the top 5 players in MLB for nothing.

How did the Royals win.  They traded an elite SP for a CF and a SS.  They made some good picks and developed talent internally.  The prime piece of the big trade they made was gone when they finally won the WS.  How do the Rays and Oakland do it.  How did Chicago do it.  They traded away a couple great established players for prospects and drafted well.  Signed a great international player in Luis Roberts.  Used the payroll flexibility to retain a key player.  

Again, very big difference between saying they should not spend then saying the key is internal development.  The Twins are in a place I don't ever recall them being in the past 20 years.  They have a bunch of legit pitching that should get a shot next year.  If you don't believe ML experience is important then I guess it does not matter if you just keep them in the ML.  IMO, the team is in a great position to finally build a home grown rotation and they could complete that process by the end of 2022.  This would put them in a far better position to fill out the team via free agency and trades in 2023.  We can stick a bandage on it and have a a shot at contending for a playoff spot if all goes well.  They won't be a serious contender but they could get into the playoffs.  So, if that's the goal ... yes, they should try to build through free agency.  

I saved the WS Champs for last.  Here are there top 6 position players

Freddie Freeman-Homegrown
Acuna Jr – Homegrown
Ozzie Albies-Homegrown
Austin Riley-Homegrown
Danby Swanson – Atlanta traded established pitching for a prospect
Adam Duval – Braves traded 1 45FV prospect for Duval

Here are their top 8 pitchers.

Charlie Morton-Free agent ($15M )
Max Fried – Atlanta traded away established players to get Fried as a prospect.
Huscart Ynoa – We all know where he came from.
Ian Anderson – Home grown
AJ Minter - Homegrown
Tyler Matzek – Released by Arizona and signed by Atlanta
Jesse Chavez – Released and picked up by Atlanta
Kyle Muller - Homegrown

One significant free agent but $15M on a 1 year deal hardly qualifies as a big free agent spend.  Of colurse, they have Ozuna who was acquired via free agency for an AAV of 16.6M.  He only played in 48 games and had negative WAR.  They trades they made building the club were all established players for prospects. Of course, they made deadline moves that worked out great but gave up nothing / invested nothing for them.  

Just saying it’s good to understand the track record of different approaches.  People around here don’t seem to pay much attention to what’s working and what’s not.  

[old nurse]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

They have two young pitchers right now. They lost a year to Covid. How many should be in the majors?

I think Cruz was real money. Also, the team's highest payrolls? All under this FO. 

As for the OP......almost no team is built without trades and FA signings. At least the winners. The Rays are it. 

The Rays were built with trades. Talent that was plucked for a little of nothing and made into something. They also scrap heap FA successfully 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I don't see much outrage over losing Liam Hendricks the reliever of the year.  Would this new FO have seen the potential?   

I think it's more likely this front office would have seen the potential in Hendriks but it's definitely not a sure thing. He didn't only bounce through Minnesota, he also bounced through Toronto and Kansas City (one of the years they made the World Series) before becoming the Liam Hendriks we see today.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I can't imagine there is a single person here who does not think the Twins should spend in free agency nor does the FO think they should not attempt to land those players.  The disconnect is that some of us are saying that a team with below average revenue is never going to succeed with a heavy reliance on high-end free agents.  Feel free to show us examples of where it has worked.  Where free agency has worked is when mid market teams sign good free agents that perform like the higher priced guys.  IE. The Rays signing Charlie Morton. 

I don't know where you are going to come up with these examples but below revenue teams land very few of the elite free agents.  Therefore, finding a low revenue team as an example probably does not exist.  We can come up with teams with considerably more revenue than the Twins that have gone this route and failed.  The Mets, Phillies, and Angles have all been trying to succeed with high end free agents.  How has that worked.  SanDiego signed Machado and traded for three high profile pitchers.  How did that work?  They even have the benefit of having acquired one of the top 5 players in MLB for nothing.

How did the Royals win.  They traded an elite SP for a CF and a SS.  They made some good picks and developed talent internally.  The prime piece of the big trade they made was gone when they finally won the WS.  How do the Rays and Oakland do it.  How did Chicago do it.  They traded away a couple great established players for prospects and drafted well.  Signed a great international player in Luis Roberts.  Used the payroll flexibility to retain a key player.  

Again, very big difference between saying they should not spend then saying the key is internal development.  The Twins are in a place I don't ever recall them being in the past 20 years.  They have a bunch of legit pitching that should get a shot next year.  If you don't believe ML experience is important then I guess it does not matter if you just keep them in the ML.  IMO, the team is in a great position to finally build a home grown rotation and they could complete that process by the end of 2022.  This would put them in a far better position to fill out the team via free agency and trades in 2023.  We can stick a bandage on it and have a a shot at contending for a playoff spot if all goes well.  They won't be a serious contender but they could get into the playoffs.  So, if that's the goal ... yes, they should try to build through free agency.  

I saved the WS Champs for last.  Here are there top 6 position players

Freddie Freeman-Homegrown
Acuna Jr – Homegrown
Ozzie Albies-Homegrown
Austin Riley-Homegrown
Danby Swanson – Atlanta traded established pitching for a prospect
Adam Duval – Braves traded 1 45FV prospect for Duval

Here are their top 8 pitchers.

Charlie Morton-Free agent ($15M )
Max Fried – Atlanta traded away established players to get Fried as a prospect.
Huscart Ynoa – We all know where he came from.
Ian Anderson – Home grown
AJ Minter - Homegrown
Tyler Matzek – Released by Arizona and signed by Atlanta
Jesse Chavez – Released and picked up by Atlanta
Kyle Muller - Homegrown

One significant free agent but $15M on a 1 year deal hardly qualifies as a big free agent spend.  Of colurse, they have Ozuna who was acquired via free agency for an AAV of 16.6M.  He only played in 48 games and had negative WAR.  They trades they made building the club were all established players for prospects. Of course, they made deadline moves that worked out great but gave up nothing / invested nothing for them.  

Just saying it’s good to understand the track record of different approaches.  People around here don’t seem to pay much attention to what’s working and what’s not.  

The OP was about how the Twins shouldn’t go after high end free agents.

I disagree with that.

Tampa, Oakland they found ways to compete differently than other teams. It works for them.

If the Twins are going after free agents, should they actively seek marginal players? Or should they reduce the scope of the search and seek fewer but higher impact? I vote the latter. Are there many examples in the same financial bracket as the Twins? No. Should that be a factor? No

Oakland and Tampa found competitive advantage by not copying everyone else. Falvine should also not copy everyone else and chart their own path.

[bean5302]

Small/Mid Market are not the same. They should not be grouped the same in this discussion as they operate differently. Mid market teams need to spend mid market money by definition and that means the money needs go to somewhere. Either to their own players who signed extensions just before free agency or by signing free agents. Anyway, one way or the other, successful teams usually have multiple big contracts on the books. Josh Donaldson's $21MM year a is big, but not that big. The 2016 Tigers had 3 people under contract making more than Donaldson and 3 more making $17MM+. Half of those big contracts were in house extensions and half were free agents. Of course, Detroit was out of control like a drunk retiree living on HSN back then.

Just shooting from the hip

Small Market = 1-2 year window, 4-5 year rebuild.

Mid Market = 3-4 year window, 3-4 year rebuild.

Large Market = 5-6 year window, 2-4 year rebuild.

In terms of payroll, Small market < $130MM, Mid Market $130-160MM, Large Market $160MM+ on an annual basis. A $20MM short term (1-2 year) bump in the competitive window should be expected. The Twins should, but do not, operate in that fashion. Instead, they're a mid market team which is trapped in its small market roots.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

The Rays were built with trades. Talent that was plucked for a little of nothing and made into something. They also scrap heap FA successfully 

One team. That no other team can replicate.....But sure, they would 100% trade Buxton. Is that what you want?

That's one team. One. No one else in baseball has been able to replicate their success. If that's your goal, good luck.