20-20 Hindsight: My 2020-21 Offseason Blueprint

[IndianaTwin]

20-20 Hindsight: My 2020 Offseason Blueprint

Each winter, folks offer a great deal of entertainment on Twins Daily by offering their perspective on what the team should do for the following season.

While that’s a fun exercise, I find that I can make a much better team if I wait until AFTER the season is over to make my preseason blueprint!

So with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, what could/should the Twins have done differently to prevent the debacle of the 2021 season?

The easy answer, of course, is to say that in signing a SS, a DH, two starters and two relievers, they should have spent what it would have taken to sign Marcus Semien ($18M), Nelson Cruz ($13M), Charlie Morton ($15M), Robbie Ray ($8M), Liam Hendricks (3 yrs/$54M), and Blake Treinen (2 yrs/$17.5). Unfortunately, doing that wasn’t practical, since it would have taken $80.75M, plus whatever it took to outbid the teams that actually signed those guys. I’m pretty sure that wasn’t in the budget.

We don’t know what the actual budget was, but they spent $41M on Simmons, Cruz, Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, and Robles. Let’s take a look at those piece-by-piece and look at the alternatives.

For purposes of this exercise, we’ll use the actual salaries of guys they could have signed, though again, that’s not accurate, since they would have had to pay more to outbid the actual signing team. Different circumstances would have changed results, but we’ll use what the players actually did to compare performances. In a few cases (including Cruz, Happ, Shoemaker, and Colome), guys changed hands midyear, but to keep things simple, I used full-season stats.

Andrelton Simmons

Let’s start with Simmons. The Twins spent $10.5 million and got an OPS+ of 57, yes, only 57, on 412 at bats. Rightly or wrongly, Simmons bore a lot of the brunt for the season’s disappointment, but how did he stack up to the alternatives?

• Marcus Semien: Though he ended up playing 2B, Semien was considered the best SS option on the market, and he’ll get MVP votes for a season that ended with a 133 OPS+ on 652 at bats. Signing him would have been awesome, but at $18M, that would have taken more than 40 percent of the free agent budget, severely hampering what could have been done with the remainder.
• Didi Gregorius: The other established SS veteran on the market signed a 2/$28M contract with the Phillies and turned in a 71 OPS+ in 408 at bats. Bad as Simmons was at times, the Twins were lucky they didn’t spend an extra $3.5M for Gregorius, including having the $14M commitment for 2022.
• Kim Ha-Seong: He was posted from South Korea and signed a 4/$28M contract with the Padres, plus the $5.25M release fee. He ended up with a 73 OPS+ in 267 at bats, splitting time evenly between SS, 2B, and 3B. That looks like utility player stats, but he was playing behind Tatis, Croneworth, and Machado, respectively. I don’t know defensive stats well enough to know how he would have handled SS full time, but his offense isn’t that much better than Simmons, and with the release fee, he would have been more expensive last year and locked up money for the next three years as well. If it turns out well, that may have addressed the SS need for 2022, but there’s also the memory of Tsuyoshi Nishioka that makes one reluctant to go that route.
• Keep Polanco at SS and wing it: They could have left Polanco at SS, but there seems to be general agreement that moving back to 2B was beneficial, and he turned in the team’s highest WAR at 4.8. We don’t know how much of the career-high OPS+ or 125 was being healthy and how much came from the benefit of having the easier defensive position.
                  Keeping Polanco at SS would have also meant making Arraez the full-time 2B. Maybe he would have hit better if he wasn’t playing all over, but with the issues they had in LF and with Donaldson’s health at 3B, his flexibility was needed. They could also have gone with more time from Nick Gordon, but he wasn’t ready at the beginning of the year. Or they could have re-signed Ehire Adrianza to be in the mix. He signed with the Braves at $1.5M and turned in a 90 OPS+. In summary, going this route would have weakened the team, but would have provided the advantage of saving a lot of cash for elsewhere.
• Sign another middle infield option. If you want to maintain the roster flexibility to let Arraez move around and not weaken the lineup with lots of time from Gordon or Adrianza, they could have signed another option for the middle infield. In the mix of free agents were a number of guys who played at least a little shortstop or who played a lot at 2B.
  • Jonathan Villar signed for $3.55M with the Mets and played 26 games at SS for the Mets when Lindor was hurt, but otherwise was the starting 3B. In the past, he’s played more games at SS than anywhere. He was serviceable at a 102 ERA+ in 454 at bats, but I'll take that from my No. 9 hitter.
  • Another option would have been Kike Hernandez, who signed a 2/$14M contract with Boston. He ended up with a 107 ERA+ in 508 plate plate appearances He played eight games at SS, though they had Bogaerts. He’s played a bit of SS in the past, but has never been a regular. The biggest advantage to signing him would have been the CF insurance he would have provided with Buxton out.
  • Or they could have signed someone who was a regular at 2B. That likely would mean keeping Polanco at SS full-time, the issues of which are described above. It would also mean having Arraez or this person as the backup at SS or find a way to get a Gordon/Adrianza-type on the roster.
                    If you want to go this route, one option would have been Kolton Wong, who signed a 2/$18M contract with Milwaukee at had a 108 OPS+ in 445 at bats. Slightly better and without the second year commitment would have been a reunion with Jonathan Schoop, who signed for $4.5M with Detroit and had a 110 OPS+. And significantly more expensive was D.J. LeMahieu, who ended up with an OPS of 97, but would have required a contract better than the 6/$90M he got from the Yankees.

EVALUATION AND SOLUTION: Disappointed through we were with Simmons, I think signing him provided the second-best outcome of all these options. Knowing what we know now, I think the best option would have been to sign Villar, using him as the primary shortstop while also providing some roster flexibility. Being able to slide him to 3B for Donaldson, with Polanco to SS and Arraez to 2B is probably better than having Arraez play 3B.

 

Nelson Cruz

Cruz eventually signed for $13M, but was a monster. Even with tailing off in Tampa, he finished the season with a 148 OPS+ on 584 plate appearances. How does that stack up to the alternatives?

• Don’t sign anyone and wing it. Sure, it would have saved $13M for elsewhere, but with the way things played out with injuries and rookies not coming through, that would have been a huge loss offensively.
• Sign someone else.
  • Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Jackie Bradley Jr., D.J. LeMahAdam Eaton, James McDann and Adam Duvall all signed contracts with an AAV of $4M-$8.75M (plus Bradley’s $12M and McCann’s 4/$40.6M), several with multiple years. All had an OPS+ of 102 or less, so they wouldn’t have been good DH options, though they may have helped elsewhere. Slightly better is Brad Miller, who had an OPS+ of 107 for Philadelphia on $3.5M.
  • Schoop, Wong, and Hernandez are described in the Simmons section. With a range of 101-110 in OPS+, they aren’t great DH options, though signing them in addition to Villar would have added still more position flexibility.
  • A reunion with Robbie Grossman would have saved significant cash, but required a second year at 2/$10M. With a 116 OPS+, he’s a slight improvement from the previous group and would have provided another outfield option, but he’s still no Cruz.
  • In Cruz’s price range, but needing a second year were Michael Brantley (2/$28M) and Justin Turner (2/$34M). Both hit well, but neither was a Cruz, though in both cases, they would have solved other issues, with adding Brantley to the OF mix and adding Turner to 3B.
  • And significantly more expensive, both in AAV and years, were Marcell Ozuna (4/$65M), George Springer (6/$150), and J.T. Realmuto (5/$125). Realmuto would have added to the catcher mix, obviously, which isn’t a good DH fit, and Springer and Ozuna had less than 300 and 200 at bats respectively.
  • Leaving Kyle Schwarber. The Schwarbs matched Cruz’s 148 OPS+ and was slightly cheaper at $10M. He only had 471 plate appearances, primarily because of his extreme splits, so his stats might not look as glamorous with another 100 plate appearances, since they’d be disproportionately against lefties. Compared to Cruz, however, he would at least have provided some defensively flexibility.

EVALUATION AND SOLUTION: There’s no disappointment in the performance of Cruz, who was undoubtedly the Twins’ best free agent signing of the six. He also netted a nice haul in trade. But even so, I think they would have done slightly better in signing Schwarber, primarily because of the small $3M savings and what it could have done in acquiring pitching.

 

Relief pitching

They signed Colome at $5.5M, with a $5.5M option on 2022 and a $1.25 buyout, and Robles at $2M. Colome’s numbers in 65 innings ended up being respectable, but the brutality of the early-season saves he blew was a killer for the season, setting a horrible tone from which the team never recovered. Robles ended up with an ERA+ of 100 in 69 innings. For this one, I’m going to look at groupings in salary ranges.

• I still don’t like committing a 3/$54M contract to a reliever, but Liam Hendricks may have been worth it for the first year. With $41M to spend as a team, however, that wasn’t really an option.
• They are lucky they didn’t sign Trevor Rosenthal at $11M. He didn’t pitch an inning.
• There are three guys from $7.75M-$10.50M, slightly more than Colome. Each of whom turned in 62-72 innings. Brad Hand, was somewhat better than Colome with a 121 ERA+, but cost nearly twice as much at $10.5M.
                  Old friend Trevor May was slightly better than Colome at a 112 ERA+, but required a significantly bigger total commitment with his 2/$15.5 contract. Though May’s overall numbers were a little better than Colome, he also had a month that was just as bad as Colome’s April. It just wasn’t as noticeable because it was from mid-May to mid-June.
                  And then there’s Blake Treinen. Though the commitment was even more than May at 2/$17.5, he was lights out with a 206 ERA+ and even through a few more innings at 72.1.
• In Colome’s immediate salary range are Kirby Yates at $5.5M and Archie Bradley at $6M. However, Yates missed the entire year and Bradley missed more than a month and ended up with a dozen fewer innings than Colome.
• And then there’s the low-dollar group of a dozen guys that Robles was part of, with salaries ranging from Robles’s $2M to Ken Giles and Tyler Clippard at $3.5M. Among them:
  • Giles required a 2/$7M and missed the entire year.
  • Darren O’Day, Clippard, and Brandon Kintzler ended up with less than 30 innings and Joakim Soria just 37.1.
  • Greg Holland (95 ERA+ in 55.2 innings) and Sergio Romo (88 ERA+ in 61.2 innings) cost a few bucks more and were a bit less effective in slightly fewer innings than Robles (100 ERA+ in 69 innings). Anthony Bass was a bit more effective (110 ERA+) in slightly fewer innings (61.1), but cost a second year.
  • The outlier is Mark Melancon ($3M), who threw nearly as many innings (64.2) as Robles but was outstanding with a 175 ERA+ and 39 saves.

EVALUATION AND SOLUTION: In the low-budget group, Robles was probably the second-best option, but it would have been worth spending the extra million to sign Melancon. In Colome’s direct group, he was actually the best buy. In the next group up, I’m not convinced that the extra money for Hand or the extra year for May would have been worth it over Colome, but Treinen was so incredibly effective that he probably was the best buy.

 

Starting pitching

They signed J.A. Happ at $8M and Matt Shoemaker at $2. Both stunk. That’s enough summary.

It’s pretty easy to assume the Twins could have done better, so let’s look at the options.

• Do nothing. There’s a sense that they probably stiffed Randy Dobnak by bouncing him around at the beginning of the year after he had a great spring. But the reality is that he when he did pitch, his ERA+ of 56 was barely better than Shoemaker’s 53. And the other alternatives were Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, etc. While Happ and Shoemaker stunk, they did buy time for younger players to get more developmental time, but going with rookies would not have produced better results than Happ and Shoemaker.
• Sign Jake Arrietta, Matt Moore, Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Jon Lester, Chris Archer, Corey Kluber, or Julio Teheren. Each pitched 80 innings or fewer, had an OPS+ less than 90, or both. All would have been bad ideas at any price, though the seven with major league contracts (all but Teheran) averaged about $6.86M.
• Sign Drew Smyly, Garrett Richards, Mike Minor or Taijuan Walker. Marginally better. Each pitched 126-159 innings and had an OPS+ between 90 and 100. As the fourth and fifth starters, that might be okay if the top of the rotation is outstanding, but each would have cost at least $9M, so they were not bargains. Walker and Minor also required two years contracts.
• Take Martin Perez from the bargain bin and get 114 innings of 100 ERA+ for $5M. That’s getting a little more for the money, but still isn’t great.
• Spend a little more ($7.83M) for Jake Odorizzi and get 104 innings of 102 ERA+. Take into account that you would have had to commit to three years, and you’d have been better off with Perez.
• Better than both in the so-so bin would have been Rich Hill, who gave 158.2 innings of 103 ERA+, but only cost $2.5M.
• Which means that out of 21 available starting pitchers, there were only four who would have genuinely helped the team. Two would have been difficult signings:
  • Adam Wainwright. Like he was going to sign anywhere but with St. Louis, but he was worth it for them, cranking out 206 innings and a 127 ERA+ on a modest $8M.
  • Charlie Morton. Again, it seemed clear that geography was going to play a significant role in where he went. He had the highest WAR among free agent pitchers at 4.6, thanks to his 185 innings and 132 ERA+. He also would have broken the budget at $15M.
• Leaving two standing:
  • There was a lot of interest in Robbie Ray, and he turned out to be the best signing for the money. Toronto paid the same $8M for one year that the Twins paid for Happ, but the Jays got 3.9 WAR on 193 innings of 154 ERA+.
  • I don’t remember as much clamoring for Anthony DeSclafani, but he would have been a good signing. The Giants paid $6M and got 3.0 WAR, 167 innings, and 129 ERA+.

EVALUATION AND SOLUTION: With the other four Twins signings, one could say that they actually did okay, though they could have done better. With the starters, they couldn’t have done much worse. But it’s also worth noting that there were a lot of starting pitching options that also didn’t turn out well either. It’s easy to say that they shouldn’t have been in the bargain bin, but frankly, Hill’s $2.5M would have been one of the better buys for the money, particularly as a No. 5.
                But shopping at the top end wasn’t necessarily the solution either. Morton was great as the outlier on the high end of the salary, but four of the five guys in the $9M-$11M ended up below 100 ERA+ and the fifth (Kluber) only threw 80 innings. In the $7.5M-$8.5M range, where the Twins shopped with Happ, only two of six were better than 102+. Combine those, and only 2 of 11 guys from $7.5M-$11M had an ERA+ over 102 and threw more than 80 innings. All that to say, the only solution that would have really succeeded was to use some of the offensive savings to sign Ray and DeSclafini.

 

Summary: So, for my 2020-21 offseason, rather than spending $41M on Cruz, Singleton, Colome, Robles, Happ and Shoemaker, I propose that we sign Robbie Ray ($8M), Anthony DeSclafini ($6M), Jonathan Villar ($3.55M), Kyle Schwarber ($10M), Mark Melancon ($3M), and Blake Treinen ($8.75M) for a total of $39.3M.

Can we start last season over?

[ashbury]

The trouble is that if we are allowed 20/20 hindsight, so must the other teams, and then all these better choices will get bid right up.

[Brandon]

The thing with Shoemaker was that his replacements were all injured.  The hope was he could be a smart signing and pitch 25-30 starts averaging between 5-6 innings per start.  really though I doubt too many people were expecting much more than 15 starts and 75-80 innings.  His potential replacements: Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak, and Duran were all injured much of the year.  Even Winder who was ready in September for a few starts had to sit out till next year.  We had the depth 6-9 starters but they were all injured.  no one talks about that very much.  

 

Last offseason I was happy with the Simmons signing and Cruz.  Simmons did provide a gold glove defense at SS.  Think how much worse our pitching would be without him there. I am disappointed in how much he regressed with the bat.  Cruz mashed.  I thought Happ and Shoemaker were head scratchers.  But i figured Happ would have a 4.00 era and win 13-15 games and pitch close to 160-180 innings.  Shoemaker I figured was a wild card and extra depth for a season where our minor leaguers didn't pitch so we would have 6 starters with Dobnak who pitched last year.  We could have definitely done better.  The question is would these other pitchers come here at around what they signed for elsewhere?

[IndianaTwin]

On 11/6/2021 at 8:10 PM, ashbury said:

The trouble is that if we are allowed 20/20 hindsight, so must the other teams, and then all these better choices will get bid right up.

I was making the rules on this, so I'm saying they can't do that.

Besides, my options were $1.7M cheaper, so let's just say that I paid an extra $250K to get each of my guys. With the remaining $250K, I'm buying lots of padding for Buxton's hand. 

[stringer bell]

No one is mentioning Villar as a 2022 option. He is in his early 30s, has some pop and speed and is a decent defensive SS, with the ability to move all over the field on defense. 
 

If the marquee guys are off the table, I think he might be a good option this coming year. 

[IndianaTwin]

On 11/8/2021 at 11:02 AM, stringer bell said:

No one is mentioning Villar as a 2022 option. He is in his early 30s, has some pop and speed and is a decent defensive SS, with the ability to move all over the field on defense. 
 

If the marquee guys are off the table, I think he might be a good option this coming year. 

I agree -- Villar had a horrible 2020, but over the past seven years has been right at league average as a hitter. He turns 31 in May. At the price he's likely to get, I think he's money well spent to fill a gap in a flexible way, even adding some substantial speed to the mix. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I really enjoyed this exercise. It shows how difficult it is to predict the future, even with all our stats and past data. There are so many variables.  Past stats, age decline, Covid, injuries, family problems, team chemistry, money, pitching coaches and hitting coaches, the fire in one's gut to put in the hard work when one has 11 million dollars in the bank already, not wanting to be on a team  (do you think that was LL's problem...who knows?) and being on a team  in a pennant race vs. languishing in last place ( "I could'a been a contender. I could 've been somebody, instead of a bum, which is who I am."  said a crying, dejected Terry Malloy, played by Marlon Brando in "On the Waterfront").  GM's have a hard job.